COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter RU848789
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Seems like as states reopen, positive cases go back up.
Do you think Gov. Murphy is wrong for opening most things back up already and not making masks in outdoor areas mandatory?
Masks in outdoor areas should be mandatory. I for one wish he would go a little slower and space out each sector a little more but I understand he needs to balance the economy with his actions
You are so doom and gloom. Do you ever list anything positive? I’d be curious of how old you are and if you have a family.
We all know the positive progress NJ and NY are making. It is on the local news 24/7.
Actually the tweets you post are on the “news” too.
I haven't seen updates on Florida, or South Carolina on the local news.
Great post and links, thanks. Interesting observation: the JAMA/NYC study (5700 patients, published 4/22), showed, in Table 1, that only 350 of 5700 hospitalized patients (6.1%) had no comorbidities, which is lower than I expected based on earlier reports from China that I had seen months ago suggesting more like 50% with no comorbidities. To wit, the Chinese study (1590 patients) you linked, which was published on 5/16, had 1191 out of 1590 hospitalized patients (74.9%) with no comorbidities, which is a huge difference.
Any insights from a medical perspective on this? For what it's worth, I find it hard to believe that the difference is truly that great (6.1% vs. 74.9%). For example, I've seen Chinese obesity rates reported at 14% (it has tripled in the last 10 years) vs. 40% for the US, so I could see a major difference, but not as high as in the studies. Maybe the Chinese are a lot less likely to self report comorbidities, as the Chinese study did say that comorbidities were self-reported, while the NYC study didn't quite say. Anyway, even at "only" 6% in NYC, it's not like there aren't substantial numbers of very healthy people being hospitalized (and 25% of cases were under age 52, so it's not all old people either). Yes, younger, healthy people are a lot less likely to be hospitalized and die, but they're still happening at rates worth worrying about.
Down to 1395 in the hospitals. Unfortunately deaths reported back up over 100 today. Must be people losing long battles to Covid on vents, or a backlog of fatalities to report.
Any mention of the age of the deaths? I believe this is very relevant.
80 percent of TOTAL deaths since the pandemic started are 65 or older. 50 deaths are people younger than 30.
This is especially true of states that haven't had major outbreaks yet, unlike the NE US and a few others, like LA/MI/IL, plus many of those states have leadership that has downplayed the threat and has a large % of the population eschewing masks - those states will continue to see worsening outbreaks if they don't improve compliance with wearing masks and practicing physical distancing - the data are unequivocal that those two interventions greatly reduce transmission.
While masks aren't needed where physical distancing is easy to achieve, it does send mixed signals to the population to not require masks anywhere in public, indoors or outdoors (yes, the risk is less outdoors, but nowhere near zero, when <6 feet from each other and especially if within 3 feet for extended periods). Countries that have been doing the best, by far, are those that have near 100% compliance with wearing masks in public - it's not even up for debate.
Do you think wishing the pandemic away and just having happy talk is the answer? Yes, he can be a bit over the top, but the tweets he's posting aren't "fake news."
You go wrong in thinking these states are at their worst. The real story is that they are climbing rapidly.
Yep, these states are nowhere near what their "worst" could be, although nowhere in the US, apart from isolated hotspots (like meatpacking plants and small groups, like churches or family gatherings) will likely ever approach the explosive transmission and eventual death rates seen in the DC-Boston megalopolis. This area was the first area hit hard in the US, due largely to high international travel rates from Europe, combined with very dense populations and high regional commuting/mixing rates - and of course, enabled by the complete lack of testing until it was way too late.
Now, everyone "knows" the risks much better from what the NE US went through, so we're not going to see other states completely ignoring masks/distancing, plus they just don't have the density/commuting patterns we do here, so their "worst" case will likely be significantly less exponential than ours was - but it could still be pretty damn bad in spots and there are risks of overwhelming some hospitals and we'll slowly see the per capita death rates in those states catching up to those in the NE, sadly - unless all of a sudden people get pandemic "religion" and start taking this seriously and mask up.
Based on a conversation I had with a Nurse practitioner, I'm thinking it's the bold.
No, and I think it's sneaky of them not to share that kind of info. However if you scroll through Murphys daily eulogies of the deceased (a really, really weird thing that he does) they're mostly geriatrics.
the data is all available on their website. And Nj.com reports it numerous times a week. You are just being lazy.
I think eventually they will start taking this seriously. The new case # from FL today is startling.
But do remember, that although the NE area had all those things going against it, it did lock down once the problem became apparent. These states do not seem to be doing that even though the problem is pretty clearly ramping up. And like what we saw in NJ and NY even if they locked down today(which they won't) their cases and hospitalizations are going to continue to jump, not to our levels at our peak, but they will jump. Given they are going to continue on for at least a little while doing what they are doing they are going jump that much more.
Not good, they need to get a handle on this.
Not everyone who is obese has hypertension. In the first study, there was a higher percentage of hypertensive patients than there were obese patients. In the second study, obesity was not even mentioned as being monitored as a comorbidity and HTN was the highest % comorbidity listed. Third study lists cardiovascular disease as the highest percentage, pre-existing condition. Per your post, "The data is crystal clear. If you are not obese or diabetic, corona is meh". Conclusion: You are incorrect. HTN/cardiovascular disease, based on these three studies, plays a significant role when discussing CV-19.
Depending on the density of people involved, masks outdoors may or may not be necessary. There are certainly times when they should be worn though.
Masks indoors in commercial settings should be mandatory, and that is likely the driver for states that are now spiking, the lack of such a mandate. Not so much that they are reopening, but the masks.
In general social distancing as well as things like hand shakes and hugs too.
These are the simple annoyances that we have to put up with if we hope to get things open while not overwhelming hospitals.
Nice try professor. My full quote:
"The data is crystal clear. If you are not obese or diabetic, corona is meh for the vast, vast, vast majority of people."
This is accurate. Obesity is link to all of those conditions.
https://www.wgbh.org/news/lifestyle/2020/06/12/a-tale-of-two-pandemics-covid-19-and-obesity
Even scarier.
Before today the highest new case total was yesterday with 1902.
Before yesterday the highest new case total was Thursday with 1698.
Before Thursday the highest new case total was June 14th with 1419.
They are spiking right now, and judging by how this virus had spiked in March before the shutdown, and how FL has gone about their business, this thing will continue to spike until they change things up.
Doom and gloom? Unfortunately yes.
Quick google search says 42% of Americans are Obese.
10% has diabetes.
Likely some overlap there, but somewhere around 50%, meet those conditions.
Per the CDC 42% of Americans are obese, probably in the highest density in some of the states now picking up steam; so if you’re right, I’m even more convinced that we’re not out of the quagmire.
Not hoping for wishful thinking. But would like balance of all news. Not just the doom and gloom.
a bit over the top is a massive understatement.
FKAR100 is rooting for the virus until the very end. He's the president of the corona bros.
Posts like this in response to wearing masks is so moronic. It adds nothing to the conversation. All you do is spam that image in various threads when anyone expresses concern about catching the virus.
@Richard Schnyderite can we please have a ban here?
Yeah posting THAT is deserving of a ban.. But not a handful of idiots that call everybody racist, talk about people's careers, and (the person you're defending here) talking about people's wives every time his feelings get hurt. Sad.
Is "we" NJ? Looks like it, which is great, but it's always a little annoying when graphics aren't clear...
Looks like we will plateau around 100 hospitalizations a day for the time being.
He is not, just like I don't think you're trying to kill people by not advocating stronger interventions - one key problem we have in this country, unlike countries that have been far more successful in preventing transmissions/deaths, is that we don't have aligned political leadership from the top down, nor consistent, saturation-level messaging to the public to promote such interventions. Some people need to be convinced and led more than others.
Reported.
For excessive whining.
Feel free to post data and evidence that supports the ridiculous idea of mandatory mask wearing outside. Even RU#'s doesn't support this.
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