COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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The ‘middle’ would be a situation like Germany’s — death, of course—that bit is unavoidable—and the brief hardship of a well-executed closure of society, but then a sharp decline in cases, and a gradual coordinated reopening.
Our situation has been decidedly worse. You can still find a middle; this isn’t a famine that’s going to kill tens of millions of people. It probably won’t be a depression. But we’ve failed to get a handle on this, and we’ll lose more lives and bear a lingering toll on the economy because of it.
Rutgers contact tracing workforce.
https://njbiz.com/rutgers-school-pu...-19-contact-tracing-workforce/?utm_term=State
https://njbiz.com/rutgers-school-pu...-19-contact-tracing-workforce/?utm_term=State
I'd say we should be looking at engineered antibody treatments much more as a potential cure, which it has the potential to be for most people, than as a preventative, especially given we may not get more than a few million doses in 4Q20 and if that's the case the highest priority use will be for hospitalized patients, first and then any positive patients, second. Given where we are now, though, it wouldn't be a bad problem to have if we can prevent serious illness and death in the vast majority of people who get infected.
Fortunately, we roughly "only" have had about 300K hospitalizations so far (it's roughly a 3:1 ratio to deaths), which works out to about 25K per week and there should certainly be enough doses for them, right away. There should also be enough for the 20-30K positive cases per day (60-100K/month) we could be having then. But certainly not enough for millions of people if this also works as a short/medium term preventative, which it certainly might - that's going to take many months and maybe by the time we have enough for tens of millions of people (early 2021?) we'll have a vaccine.
Another excellent summary article by Derek Lowe in today's In The Pipeline, this time on the status of the major vaccine efforts worldwide. Although the non-scientific part he ends with is just as interesting as the all the science in the main part of the article. It ain't going to be boring to watch and someday I'm sure we'll see books written about this effort...and a movie with Tom Hanks in there somewhere, lol...
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/11/coronavirus-vaccine-update-june-11
Finally, there are political considerations. Aren’t there always. The various companies involved all have an incentive to be the first to announce an effective vaccine, of course – that will be a huge publicity event. On top of that, there is surely a desire on the part of the current administration to be able to announce this before the election in November – and let me be clear, this would be true no matter who was in office, or from which party. I will say, though, that the President’s willingness to promote hydroxychloroquine so far during the pandemic does not bode well for his restraint when it comes to potential treatments. The election season will just make that more fraught. And internationally, one can already see some elbow-throwing between the US and China (and potentially between the US and Europe?) on the origin of the first effective vaccine as well. Russia is part of this as well. National pride is at stake, which also can lead to some otherwise-irrational behavior.
The next few months, then, are not going to be dull. Politics aside, the organization and execution of all these trials will be a huge and complex effort, as mentioned, and when the numbers start coming out of them we’re going to surely be taken by surprise. That’s what clinical trials do; this won’t be different. I’m expecting sudden reversals, and sudden bursts of hope, despair, and confusion. None of us have ever seen anything like what’s coming, and I hope we never have another opportunity to see anything like it again!
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/11/coronavirus-vaccine-update-june-11
Finally, there are political considerations. Aren’t there always. The various companies involved all have an incentive to be the first to announce an effective vaccine, of course – that will be a huge publicity event. On top of that, there is surely a desire on the part of the current administration to be able to announce this before the election in November – and let me be clear, this would be true no matter who was in office, or from which party. I will say, though, that the President’s willingness to promote hydroxychloroquine so far during the pandemic does not bode well for his restraint when it comes to potential treatments. The election season will just make that more fraught. And internationally, one can already see some elbow-throwing between the US and China (and potentially between the US and Europe?) on the origin of the first effective vaccine as well. Russia is part of this as well. National pride is at stake, which also can lead to some otherwise-irrational behavior.
The next few months, then, are not going to be dull. Politics aside, the organization and execution of all these trials will be a huge and complex effort, as mentioned, and when the numbers start coming out of them we’re going to surely be taken by surprise. That’s what clinical trials do; this won’t be different. I’m expecting sudden reversals, and sudden bursts of hope, despair, and confusion. None of us have ever seen anything like what’s coming, and I hope we never have another opportunity to see anything like it again!
On top of the news yesterday about the importance of face masks in preventing COVID spread in that salon in Missouri, comes a really well done research article (peer-reviewed and in the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences) saying essentially the same thing. Rather than summarizing it, here's the abstract, so people can read for themselves. The bottom line is if one can't maintain social distancing in public (indoors or outdoors), which is very difficult in some work, travel and entertainment situations, wear a mask. Period.
Abstract
Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117
Abstract
Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117
So another thing that Gottlieb talked about yesterday that I thought was interesting and pertains to some things we have discussed here recently.
He said those with Covid who are asymptomatic are able to spread the virus, he was just not sure how much.
But more importantly the presymptomatic are the most contagious. He said .7 days before showing symptoms. That is when you have the most viral spread. So you could be out there, feeling fine, no symptoms and be the worst spreader of them all.
He said those with Covid who are asymptomatic are able to spread the virus, he was just not sure how much.
But more importantly the presymptomatic are the most contagious. He said .7 days before showing symptoms. That is when you have the most viral spread. So you could be out there, feeling fine, no symptoms and be the worst spreader of them all.
I feel we will be in better shape because, in general, we have been more diligent up to now regarding social distancing and mask wearing. I just got back from North Carolina and they were definitely looser with their overall attitude. Surprise, their case loads are rising. As we get back to our normal ways, most people will drop their guard...almost guaranteed. In NC, I was out and had my first draft beer in a bottle shop..yes, without a mask. There was only a small handful of people in a fairly big store and no one was near me. It was one of the most pleasurable beers I have ever had. Once people get a taste of freedom without a mask, I think their guards will drop which may have an effect on infection rates once again.
I see a lot of statistics on hospitalizations and new case but nothing on death rates. I understand deaths follow hospitalizations by about 4 weeks, but we are a few months into this and I understand that there are better ideas on treatments. Do we have any stats on death rates vs. hospitalizations?
Additional research findings on mask usage being integral in beating COVID. Based on mathematical models. also concedes that there may be more risk from people touching the masks, but overall, if there was 100% usage of even rudimentary masks that are 50% effective in public, the R0 would dip below 1.
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376#d1e2177
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376#d1e2177
No but N.J. , NY had 48% of our deaths occur in Nursing homes and there will be more.” We have learned some things” ... sure you gave... and I’ll be working out later if you care to see what an old man looks like ?
Cuomo doesn't deserve praise, says writer
https://www-foxbusiness-com.cdn.amp...y-my-take-cuomo-coronavirus-response-new-york
https://www-foxbusiness-com.cdn.amp...y-my-take-cuomo-coronavirus-response-new-york
So, Mr. Sports fan feel free to not praise him. But why not leave such absolutely useless information out of this thread? Please understand that whatever anyone decides on whether or not to praise / not praise him (or Murphy or Trump or whomever else) has NOTHING whatsoever to do with furthering the dialog here. Why not leave this thread to be about facts and science rather than such obviously political bs?
Almost every state has a similar percentage of nursing home deaths compared to non nursing home deaths and many have more
What has our current science community actually accomplished at this moment in time... We are no closer to a cure ( vaccine) and from what we hear it won’t be for “awhile”...not sure what meds can help ?... Only 60 % will get the vaccine... either being skeptical of a new marketed vaccine or the anti vaxer crowd who are just stuck on that agenda...conflicting data every few hours... “ It’s a new thing... it takes time”... most who do survive do so either through luck, their Genetic/ DNA or perhaps even blood type... sorry it’s not good enough ... remember to get ready for the 2nd wave and probably a 3rd wave... from the experts on here every country including where it originated has done a bang up job except where else ... the USA ...
Terrible 1st post with the new screen name, Boomer
NC just reported 1,768 new cases from yesterday. That's a record. Gov needs to issue a new stay-at-home order, methinks. NC getting way too many out of state visitors/vacationers. I suspect more than a few will take home a hidden souvenir. The rush to re-open per the economic pressure was foolish.
Yup know a bunch of people who just went down there from Long Island. Ate indoors at a bunch of restaurants too with no masks
Might as well get used to it ... more tests = more cases ...or the last two plus weeks are starting to kick in as some predicted.
Crazy. This behavior will come back to bite us all.
Get used to "it"? Wait til all those protesters start showing signs of COVID. Next week?
There was a thread of people from NJ going down to the outer banks soon.
A friend of mine flying to Vegas on Monday
A friend of mine flying to Vegas on Monday
Wow what a crime!!! If only they were smart and protested with 30,000 people instead.
Other countries have also struggled to generate a sharp reduction, and like us, their reopenings will likely have more ‘fits and starts’ and a more tentative consumer. What we share in common with those countries is an ambivalence about biting the bullet and locking down, and a skepticism about the virus.
I’m not disappointed in our response because it gives me pleasure to see us struggle, I’m disappointed because the US would be better off if our curve looked like some of the others across the world.
People can do things but wearing a mask is the way to go and social distances as best you can... even in those parades...Is anyone going to visit the Newest attraction in Seattle? CHAZ recreational Park...
“This is our concern, Dude.” From WSJ:
In Arizona, the state’s health department over the weekend reminded hospitals to be in emergency mode as intensive-care units in the state approached 80% capacity. Texas set three straight days of hospitalization records this week, surpassing 2,000 a day for the first time. Utah hospitals have hit records twice in hospital admissions since May 25.
That’s good, but I’m more concerned with the bigger picture. I hope most are dodging, twisting or standing on solid ground, but all evidence is that many are struggling or destined to struggle soon.
Will have to wait till the weekend to see this weeks #'s from Florida, but the last couple weeks they have not been testing more but cases are rising. My guess is similar is happening this week.
As noted above in Florida it's not a matter of more tests. Just a higher positivity rate.
Doubt it is due to the protests otherwise we'd be seeing similar jumps in states like NY NJ and PA, yet we are not.
That's just your opinion and you're a Democrat .
Let's keep this thread to science, right?
Agreed and as I said the other day, any new peak in the cities with protests is likely to be small, since at least 50% were wearing masks (which would keep transmissions low) and in some footage I saw 70% or more were wearing masks. By and large protesters come from the same crowd that generally believes that this is not a hoax and that interventions work. I wish they all wore masks, but 50-70% should at least keep any flare-ups small. Bigger risks from large crowds having fun with very few wearing masks.
If crowds of 30-40 thousand people won't cause flare ups because most were wearing masks, then wouldn't that point to the shutdown being useless? If everybody wore masks and went a out their normal lives, isn't that much less dangerous than these protests that are going on all over the country?
Since opinions are popular today in this thread, here are two to ponder.
Not sure what to think of them yet
NYs response
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/how-new-yorks-coronavirus-response-made-the-pandemic-worse
A reason for Florida's spikes.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/florida-migrant-town-coronavirus
Not sure what to think of them yet
NYs response
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/how-new-yorks-coronavirus-response-made-the-pandemic-worse
A reason for Florida's spikes.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/florida-migrant-town-coronavirus
Interesting article on Florida. I've been to the Seminole Casino in Immokalee. I mean I could understand the virus being atypically a bigger problem in an area like this, as compared to others. It's a pretty poor area, with lots of people who live and work in close contact with each other. You could easily understand why these people would not have easy access to testing.
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