COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[rutgersguy1]

One model has deaths decreasing during June/July but increase in the fall. I guess that's what you'd expect but just how bad who knows.

From the article:

An influential model cited by the White House issued the dire prediction, saying the US death toll could reach 169,890 by October 1, with a possible range of about 133,000 to 290,000 deaths.

Daily deaths are expected to decrease through June and July, then remain relatively stable through August before rising sharply in September, the model forecasts.

"If the US is unable to check the growth in September, we could be facing worsening trends in October, November and the following months if the pandemic, as we expect, follows pneumonia seasonality," said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine.

"I think right now, most Americans are not ready to lock back down, and I completely understand that. ... I understand people are willing to live alongside this virus.

It means that between 800 and 1,000 Americans are going to die every single day," Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, told CNN.

"We're going to get another 100,000 deaths by September. So, that's a catastrophic cost," Jha said. "We really do have to try to figure out how to bring the caseloads down from these scary levels."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

 

[Plum Street]

Cousin was supposed to get married in March, she pushed it to September. Was gonna be a very small wedding anyway so I think it’ll happen. Just gonna be so, so weird.

Yes it will be. Another question is what happens at cocktail hours/buffet style set ups ?

 

[RU-05]

This.
And there are some idiots on this board that still question the need to wear a mask or social distancing.

I see it a lot at work. People are wearing masks, but tons of complaining, tons of talk about how ridiculous it is.

Hopefully the news channels which have downplayed this thus far, see what's happening in these red states that are spiking and change their tune.

Conversely I am hearing a lot of talk, from those who have not been covid deniers, such as Gottlieb, about how shutting things back down is just not going to happen again. It can't, the country just cannot withstand that.

So hopefully we can meet somewhere in the middle on this.

 

[rutgersguy1]

12 states with rising hospitalizations.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/10/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

Just some additional info on a couple of the areas seeing increase in hospitalizations. Arizona's ICU capacity is just about the same as it was at its previous peak 78%-79% usage. NC has record for hospitalizations but still plenty of capacity left. LA had a peak infection rate of 3, brought it below 1 but believes it' about 1.3 or more now and anything above 1 means it's still spreading.

From the article:

In Arizona, officials are telling hospitals to activate emergency plans.

At its previous peak, the state's intensive care unit beds were 78% in use. As of this week, 79% were occupied. Arizona's Director of Health Services Dr. Cara Christ asked that hospitals "be judicious" in elective surgeries to ensure bed capacity.

North Carolina recently broke its record with 780 coronavirus hospitalizations by early Thursday, according to the North Carolina Healthcare Association.

Though there is plenty of hospital capacity left, state officials are concerned about increased trends in hospitalizations when restrictions first eased, then again after Memorial Day weekend.

Los Angeles County is seeing an average of 1,300 new coronavirus cases a day as it allows more businesses to reopen, including gyms and museums.

The infection rate peaked at 3 and was brought down to slightly below 1 through the collective effort to flatten the curve, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said at a news conference. The numerals Garcetti referenced indicate the average number of cases an infected person will cause; if it's above 1, the virus is still thought to be spreading through a community.

County health officials now estimate the rate to be closer to 1.3 or certainly above 1, he said, adding that the reopening makes him "nervous." He urged people who participated in protests to quarantine for 14 days or get a free test from the 24 testing sites across the city and county.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

 

[rutgersguy1]

Successful double lung transplant on a COVID patient, a Hispanic woman in her 20s who spent 6 weeks on ventilator but whose lungs were damaged irreversibly. When she finally tested negative she became eligible for transplant. Still a long risky road of recovery but quite a feat.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/health/lung-transplant-covid-19-northwestern/index.html

 

[RU-05]

Just some additional info on a couple of the areas seeing increase in hospitalizations. Arizona's ICU capacity is just about the same as it was at its previous peak 78%-79% usage. NC has record for hospitalizations but still plenty of capacity left. LA had a peak infection rate of 3, brought it below 1 but believes it' about 1.3 or more now and anything above 1 means it's still spreading.

From the article:

In Arizona, officials are telling hospitals to activate emergency plans.

At its previous peak, the state's intensive care unit beds were 78% in use. As of this week, 79% were occupied. Arizona's Director of Health Services Dr. Cara Christ asked that hospitals "be judicious" in elective surgeries to ensure bed capacity.

North Carolina recently broke its record with 780 coronavirus hospitalizations by early Thursday, according to the North Carolina Healthcare Association.

Though there is plenty of hospital capacity left, state officials are concerned about increased trends in hospitalizations when restrictions first eased, then again after Memorial Day weekend.

Los Angeles County is seeing an average of 1,300 new coronavirus cases a day as it allows more businesses to reopen, including gyms and museums.

The infection rate peaked at 3 and was brought down to slightly below 1 through the collective effort to flatten the curve, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said at a news conference. The numerals Garcetti referenced indicate the average number of cases an infected person will cause; if it's above 1, the virus is still thought to be spreading through a community.

County health officials now estimate the rate to be closer to 1.3 or certainly above 1, he said, adding that the reopening makes him "nervous." He urged people who participated in protests to quarantine for 14 days or get a free test from the 24 testing sites across the city and county.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html

Just a note on AZ's ICU capacity, in mid March their ICU capacity was somewhere around 860 beds.

Right now they have 1300 beds in use, and 355 available.

So they increased their capacity pretty dramatically and are still in danger of maxing out.

I'm sure most if not all states increased their capacity as well and it's probably why NC and other states like Texas still have a cushion.

 

[RU-05]

More of an economy thing, (but not exactly a stock thing) but Mnuchin noted that although $3 trillion has already been allocated for Covid, only $1.6 of that is already in the economy, so we will see another $1 trillion+ pumped into the economy in the coming months.

In addition to whatever else is passed by congress.

 

[Knight177lb]

I forgot that things are permanent. My bad. Explains why we never got out of the Great Depression. Liquor stores were kept open so hospitals didn’t have space taken up by withdrawing alcoholics. The government bails people out. They bail out all these companies, they’ll bail out people too or we will have a bad economy. It’s the government’s and ultimately the voters choice. Maybe this will open some peoples eyes to how the other half lives. Is your point we should have never locked down?

Do we really have that many people who are so physically dependent on alcohol that we would overrun hospitals? I doubt it. However, I'm sure we will greatly increase the amount of alcoholics because of the shutdown.

A bailout is not going to fix this because we're going to go through a depression, not a recession. We have only really had one depression before and it lasted for years and years and we couldn't get out of it. The reason we came out of it was because of WWII.

My point is that we destroyed the economy when we could have just slowed it down a bit. I get cancelling concerts and large gatherings like that, but we never should have shut down all businesses and let them go under while allowing Walmart to profit even more.

 

[RU848789]

Good news out of that Missouri Great Clips where both the stylists and clients all wore masks and stylists were symptomatic. All 140 clients (46 who tested negative) have no symptoms after 2 weeks quarantine. I don't know if you can expect 0% transmission with masks but definitely think it's a good sign masks reduce transmission even in close contact somewhat prolonged contact.

From the article:

Two Missouri hairstylists who worked while they had coronavirus did not infect the 140 clients they served even though they had symptoms at the time, local health officials said.

The clients and the stylists all wore face coverings, and the salon had set up other measures such as social distancing of chairs and staggered appointments, the Springfield-Greene County Health Department said this week.

Of the 140 clients and seven co-workers potentially exposed, 46 took tests that came back negative. All the others were quarantined for the duration of the coronavirus incubation period. The 14-day incubation period has now passed with no new infections linked to the salon, county health officials said.

During the quarantine, those who did not get tested got a call twice a day from health officials asking whether they had symptoms related to Covid-19, said Kathryn Wall, a spokeswoman for the Springfield-Green County Health Department.

County health officials called the results encouraging, and said they're looking into the case for insight on how to stop the spread and help with efforts on future research.

"This is exciting news about the value of masking to prevent Covid-19," said Clay Goddard, the county's director of health. "We are studying more closely the details of these exposures, including what types of face coverings were worn and what other precautions were taken to lead to this encouraging result."

Studies have found that physical distancing and the use of a mask are the two best ways to prevent coronavirus transmission.

This month, a study published in the Lancet medical journal found people should stay six feet apart and wear face coverings. It said the chance of transmission without a face mask was 17.4%, while that fell to 3.1% when a mask was worn.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/us/missouri-hairstylists-coronavirus-clients-trnd/index.html

This is fantastic news, confirming (again) the value of masking, in particular, given how close the contact is between salon employees and customers, and physical distancing to some extent. Anyone who reads this study and still thinks masks aren't worth wearing is being intransigent.

 

[ArminRU]

Do we really have that many people who are so physically dependent on alcohol that we would overrun hospitals? I doubt it. However, I'm sure we will greatly increase the amount of alcoholics because of the shutdown.

A bailout is not going to fix this because we're going to go through a depression, not a recession. We have only really had one depression before and it lasted for years and years and we couldn't get out of it. The reason we came out of it was because of WWII.

My point is that we destroyed the economy when we could have just slowed it down a bit. I get cancelling concerts and large gatherings like that, but we never should have shut down all businesses and let them go under while allowing Walmart to profit even more.

Businesses would have shut down themselves if the government didn’t. Nobody wanted to leave their homes in the thick of things and many still do not want to go to restaurants and things like that. Sweden didn’t force shut downs and their economy still got smoked. At the end of the day, pandemics are bad for business with or without government involvement.

 

[tom1944]

Businesses would have shut down themselves if the government didn’t. Nobody wanted to leave their homes in the thick of things and many still do not want to go to restaurants and things like that. Sweden didn’t force shut downs and their economy still got smoked. At the end of the day, pandemics are bad for business with or without government involvement.

This

To think businesses would not have taken a big hit is not being realistic

 

[wisr01]

down to 1701 in hospitals in NJ with Covid. Barring changes to the trends we will be under 1500 by the end of the weekend.

Correction, down to 1512 already today. At this rate going to be a lot lower by the end of the weekend.

 

[RU848789]

Businesses would have shut down themselves if the government didn’t. Nobody wanted to leave their homes in the thick of things and many still do not want to go to restaurants and things like that. Sweden didn’t force shut downs and their economy still got smoked. At the end of the day, pandemics are bad for business with or without government involvement.

Exactly. Many of us went into self-quarantine days or even weeks (us) before any "official" stay at home orders and, for example, subway ridership was down something like 75% before any stay at home orders. People aren't stupid and economies would've been impacted pretty hard without the stay at home orders.

Unfortunately, we were so ill-prepared for this pandemic due to lack of Federal planning and leadership, especially on testing and medical supplies, leaving state/local governments ill-equipped to deal with the outbreak (and they made mistakes too - NY/NJ should've gone to stay at home orders at least a week earlier).

While there are plenty of other countries that have done as badly as we did, there are also quite a few that never had to resort to lockdowns, due to having very strong interventions (testing, tracing and isolating, combined with mask-wearing and physical distancing) in place at the start of the outbreak. That was in our pandemic playbook - we just neglected to follow it.

@Knight177lb - did you read my reply to you from ~2 am?

 

[RU-05]

Florida's record high of new cases before was 1419.

Looks like today they will announce 1698 new cases.

# of tests disclaimer remains in effect.

States like Florida and Texas and Arizona are now going to be the leaders in terms of how we handle the reopenings. They need to set good examples.

I don't think their #'s(aside from AZ) are approaching overwhelming, so they need to get a grip on it before it does.

 

[RUBOB72]

Great find. Better summary than most of the other articles on this, thanks. Unfortunately, our instant gratification, what have you done for me lately society has never been very good at long term investments aimed at preventing and/or responding to uncertain, catastrophic risks from being realized. See climate change and at least on that, the science is far less convincing about the horrific near term (5-10 years) risks than it is/was for a potential pandemic, which many virologists have been predicting since SARS/MERS, so in hindsight investing in pandemic prevention should have seemed like a far more worthwhile endeavor (although I think both are worth investing in - just drawing a comparison).

I don't trust the Chinese, but I'd rather keep working with them on efforts like finding and characterizing new coronavirus threats, like we were doing until last year, than to completely break with them and be in the dark on any such efforts. Unfortunately our leaders are too focused on "blame China" than they are on what to do about the pandemic, especially with the completely unsubstantiated claims that the virus was either made in or accidentally released in the Wuhan virology lab.

Exactly. Many of us went into self-quarantine days or even weeks (us) before any "official" stay at home orders and, for example, subway ridership was down something like 75% before any stay at home orders. People aren't stupid and economies would've been impacted pretty hard without the stay at home orders.

Unfortunately, we were so ill-prepared for this pandemic due to lack of Federal planning and leadership, especially on testing and medical supplies, leaving state/local governments ill-equipped to deal with the outbreak (and they made mistakes too - NY/NJ should've gone to stay at home orders at least a week earlier).

While there are plenty of other countries that have done as badly as we did, there are also quite a few that never had to resort to lockdowns, due to having very strong interventions (testing, tracing and isolating, combined with mask-wearing and physical distancing) in place at the start of the outbreak. That was in our pandemic playbook - we just neglected to follow it.

@Knight177lb - did you read my reply to you from ~2 am?

 

[RUBOB72]

We were ill prepared and to be clear this type of virus was expected sooner than later... when exactly did our ill preparedness start... How far back in years would you estimate ? 5-10-20 the problem should have been addressed?

 

[RU848789]

The latest (5/12) projections are out from the U of Washington/IHME and they've gotten a bit worse with the US deaths predicted to jump from the 134K in the 5/4 model to 147K through the end of July in the 5/12 model run. Recall that the model had been bouncing around in the 60-85K range for weeks prior to the 5/4 model run, which was the first one incorporating significant opening up of many states with reduced controls and social distancing expected. The 13K increase in this model run reflects even worse performance due to even less adherence to social distancing (and mask wearing) expected.

NY deaths are modeled to increase slightly from 32K in the 5/4 model to 34K in the 5/12 model (was just 24K in the 4/27 model) and NJ deaths dropped a bit from 16K in the 5/4 model to 14.6K in the 5/12 model (vs. 7,2K in the 4/27 model). Most of the increased deaths are in states projected to have more deaths due to opening up before having controlled their outbreaks.

As mentioned in the previous post, they completely overhauled the model and are now factoring in an increase in deaths due to expected significant increases in transmissions related to significant relaxation of stay at home policies and social distancing efforts, as well as slower than expected declines in deaths everywhere, once peaks are reached and passed. Sadly, we're simply not following the pandemic playbook we ignored the first time around (and had in our back pockets, while South Korea, Taiwan and others followed it perfectly), of aggressive testing, tracing, and isolating to stamp out inevitable flare-ups, along with mask-wearing and social distancing to prevent/limit them further, while opening things up in controlled phases. We'd likely have a few thousand deaths if we had, instead of 82K and growing.

Keep in mind, these are just deaths through the end of July. Over the next 18 months or so, assuming no cure/vaccine and assuming little interventions being practiced, the Wharton model predicts 950K deaths, The JHU model predicts at least 500K deaths and my simple calcs show that if NY's deaths are translated to the rest of the country (NY has the most complete data of anywhere in the world, with a known infection fatality rate in the 0.7% range vs. statewide antibody testing) it would result in 1.3MM deaths if 60% of 330MM in the US became infected.

Of course, it's possible many more are truly infected and we're missing that data and/or it's possible that "effective" herd immunity could be much less than the 50-80% postulated by most experts (some other epidemiologists have said maybe only 20-40% will achieve herd immunity), meaning many fewer would die (but still 250K+). I also think we'll have close to a cure (antibodies) in the next few months and a vaccine by the end of the year, but that may also be wrong, so hard to count on it.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

It's been awhile since I made a post on the IHME/U of Washington model, since the recent versions hadn't changes a whole lot. However, with this version, they've extended the model through 10/1, showing the start of a second peak, with 145K deaths by August 1st (similar to what it was in mid-May, but an increase over what it was a week or two ago, as per below) and almost 170K deaths by Oct 1st - and implying a lot more after that, based on the significant increase in deaths in September, via the model. NY and NJ modeled deaths have actually decreased a little bit vs. mid-May, meaning the significant increases for the US are coming from other states, which is not a surprise.

• From IHME: "Based on the latest available data, cumulative COVID-19 deaths could reach 145,728 (estimate range of 136,633 to 166,185) in the US by August. These cumulative estimates are higher than those found in the June 5 release (140,496 deaths, with an estimate range of 134,395 to 146,999) and the May 29 release (135,109 deaths, with an estimate range of 123,344 to 157,715)"
• NY and NJ modeled deaths have actually decreased a little bit vs. mid-May, with NY projected to reach 32K deaths by 10/1 and NJ expected to reach 13K deaths by 10/1 meaning the significant increases for the US would be coming from other states, which is not a surprise.
  
• A word about Brazil and Mexico. The model shows an huge increase in deaths in Brazil, bringing it from the current ~37K deaths to over 165K deaths by August 1st. Similarly, Mexico is projected to go from 13K current deaths to 52K deaths by August 1st.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

 

[albanyknight]

New York and New Jersey did what had to be done. I can't begin to imagine what would of been if we had done a partial shut-down in March and April.

Now that NY and NJ have things relatively in control, common sense policies for re-opening things are happening. Up this way, people are dining outdoors at restaurants from Rhinebeck up to Lake George.

Fortunately a number of states did not experience the level of severity that NY/NJ did and had some hard decisions to make. Some did better than others. But bed capacity in Arizona, Oklahoma and Alabama to name a few are beginning to be over-run.

We may see a late June, early July wave as a result of the protests and a possible new wave in the fall.

Unfortunately, I think we are looking at a roller coaster ride at least for the rest of the year and continued universal income is going to be necessary. In the meantime all we can do is continue to wear masks in public places and hope for the best.

 

[Plum Street]

It's been awhile since I made a post on the IHME/U of Washington model, since the recent versions hadn't changes a whole lot. However, with this version, they've extended the model through 10/1, showing the start of a second peak, with 145K deaths by August 1st (similar to what it was in mid-May, but an increase over what it was a week or two ago, as per below) and almost 170K deaths by Oct 1st - and implying a lot more after that, based on the significant increase in deaths in September, via the model. NY and NJ modeled deaths have actually decreased a little bit vs. mid-May, meaning the significant increases for the US are coming from other states, which is not a surprise.

• From IHME: "Based on the latest available data, cumulative COVID-19 deaths could reach 145,728 (estimate range of 136,633 to 166,185) in the US by August. These cumulative estimates are higher than those found in the June 5 release (140,496 deaths, with an estimate range of 134,395 to 146,999) and the May 29 release (135,109 deaths, with an estimate range of 123,344 to 157,715)"
• NY and NJ modeled deaths have actually decreased a little bit vs. mid-May, with NY projected to reach 32K deaths by 10/1 and NJ expected to reach 13K deaths by 10/1 meaning the significant increases for the US would be coming from other states, which is not a surprise.
  
• A word about Brazil and Mexico. The model shows an huge increase in deaths in Brazil, bringing it from the current ~37K deaths to over 165K deaths by August 1st. Similarly, Mexico is projected to go from 13K current deaths to 52K deaths by August 1st.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

Numbers what do you think about scheduled weddings for the fall? I got 2 in October , back to back weeks in north jersey and bucks county

 

[RU848789]

We were ill prepared and to be clear this type of virus was expected sooner than later... when exactly did our ill preparedness start... How far back in years would you estimate ? 5-10-20 the problem should have been addressed?

At the very least, after MERS in 2012, as it showed that SARS in 2003 wasn't a coronavirus "fluke." SARS and MERS had fatality rates of 10 and 30% respectively - fortunately, they weren't nearly as transmissible as COVID-19. In addition, we've had many influenza pandemics over the last century, so a proactive government would've done far more than we've done over the last 15+ years.

 

[RU848789]

Numbers what do you think about scheduled weddings for the fall? I got 2 in October , back to back weeks in north jersey and bucks county

With more and more data coming in on the effectiveness of masks in greatly reducing transmission, I'd say they'll likely go on. I'd say wear a mask, don't hug or shake hands with anybody you aren't sure isn't infected (probably a very small circle for anyone - elbow bumps at the receiving line, I guess), wash your hands or sanitize frequently, and have as much fun as you can.

 

[RUBOB72]

At the very least, after MERS in 2012, as it showed that SARS in 2003 wasn't a coronavirus "fluke." SARS and MERS had fatality rates of 10 and 30% respectively - fortunately, they weren't nearly as transmissible as COVID-19. In addition, we've had many influenza pandemics over the last century, so a proactive government would've done far more than we've done over the last 15+ years.

Yes , I think we all agree that in hindsight as a country and world , we were living on borrowed time.

 

[MulletCork]

I went

Numbers what do you think about scheduled weddings for the fall? I got 2 in October , back to back weeks in north jersey and bucks county

Not to get off tangent, but tie manufacturers should come up with matching masks and they could become a trendy item to replace pocket squares. Or not. But still more stylish for a wedding than a blue surgical mask.

 

[cohwx]

I see it a lot at work. People are wearing masks, but tons of complaining, tons of talk about how ridiculous it is.

Hopefully the news channels which have downplayed this thus far, see what's happening in these red states that are spiking and change their tune.

Conversely I am hearing a lot of talk, from those who have not been covid deniers, such as Gottlieb, about how shutting things back down is just not going to happen again. It can't, the country just cannot withstand that.

So hopefully we can meet somewhere in the middle on this.

If people are smart about maintaining social distancing and wearing masks, we might avoid having to do shut downs again. But if someplace like NYC winds up in a situation where hospitals are about to be overrun, there will be no choice. I think we can be smarter about it, though. For instance, instead of shutting down the whole state, just shut down the areas that are most severely affected.

Now if one of the treatments being studied turns out to be really effective and available, that would help a lot. Might be too much to hope for by the fall/winter.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Seeing that drone video in LA of the thousands of packed in protesters on that narrow street block after block was cringeworthy

I see the following states getting into trouble if CV is not weakening

CA
Minnesota
Illinois
Texas
Washington
Oregon
NY

and DC

 

[RU-05]

Seeing that drone video in LA of the thousands of packed in protesters on that narrow street block after block was cringeworthy

I see the following states getting into trouble if CV is not weakening

CA
Minnesota
Illinois
Texas
Washington
Oregon
NY

and DC

Very possible, but do note we are not seeing the impact yet, yes Texas is jumping, but NY is not. (looked for Minny's daily case tracker but I could not find one).

NY is actually in a pretty good position because it has a relatively high antibody rate and relatively low virus positivity rate. Still a jump is certainly possible.

 

[Ronnie_B]

My buddy is holed up in his house in Sea Bright with a high fever for the past few days, yesterday was when he was going to take the test to see if Covid-19 or not, just texted him what were the results and he replied he had to wait 3-5 days for them, when I questioned why the long wait (I'm under the assumption we whittled the waiting period significantly) he said his doctor said there has been a spike in new cases in NJ and hence the wait. Which is the first time I've heard this from anywhere.

I wonder if his doc blowing smoke up his ass to cover for the long wait.

 

[RU-05]

My buddy is holed up in his house in Sea Bright with a high fever for the past few days, yesterday was when he was going to take the test to see if Covid-19 or not, just texted him what were the results and he replied he had to wait 3-5 days for them, when I questioned why the long wait (I'm under the assumption we whittled the waiting period significantly) he said his doctor said there has been a spike in new cases in NJ and hence the wait. Which is the first time I've heard this from anywhere.

I wonder if his doc blowing smoke up his ass to cover for the long wait.

I think the wait is a spike in testing, not new cases.

But I heard similar, even from someone who works in a hospital.

 

[Joey Bags]

Been monitoring global CV data daily since February and noticing that while cases have been jumping globally for over a month, deaths have continued to decrease, even in areas where case growth has been sustained long enough to where an increase in deaths should be coming through in the numbers but isn't. Seeing this in some US states as well.

Is this a noted medical trend or just a weird data artifact due to bad reporting?

 

[formerlyknownasrutgers100]

Do we really have that many people who are so physically dependent on alcohol that we would overrun hospitals? I doubt it. However, I'm sure we will greatly increase the amount of alcoholics because of the shutdown.

A bailout is not going to fix this because we're going to go through a depression, not a recession. We have only really had one depression before and it lasted for years and years and we couldn't get out of it. The reason we came out of it was because of WWII.

My point is that we destroyed the economy when we could have just slowed it down a bit. I get cancelling concerts and large gatherings like that, but we never should have shut down all businesses and let them go under while allowing Walmart to profit even more.

You just don’t get coronavirus if you think all we had to do was stop concerts and large gatherings. There’s no further point in discussing this. Enjoy your day

 

[RU848789]

My buddy is holed up in his house in Sea Bright with a high fever for the past few days, yesterday was when he was going to take the test to see if Covid-19 or not, just texted him what were the results and he replied he had to wait 3-5 days for them, when I questioned why the long wait (I'm under the assumption we whittled the waiting period significantly) he said his doctor said there has been a spike in new cases in NJ and hence the wait. Which is the first time I've heard this from anywhere.

I wonder if his doc blowing smoke up his ass to cover for the long wait.

Unfortunately, it still generally takes from a few days to up to a week to get test results in NJ, which is disappointing. Have not heard of any spike in NJ and there's no obvious increase through yesterday's data, so sounds like the doc is misinformed.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...lmart-cvs-rite-aid-locations-june-7-2020.html

 

[Ronnie_B]

I think the wait is a spike in testing, not new cases.

But I heard similar, even from someone who works in a hospital.

Just to clarify, you heard from someone who works in a hospital that the spike is in new cases or testing?

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

My buddy is holed up in his house in Sea Bright with a high fever for the past few days, yesterday was when he was going to take the test to see if Covid-19 or not, just texted him what were the results and he replied he had to wait 3-5 days for them, when I questioned why the long wait (I'm under the assumption we whittled the waiting period significantly) he said his doctor said there has been a spike in new cases in NJ and hence the wait. Which is the first time I've heard this from anywhere.

I wonder if his doc blowing smoke up his ass to cover for the long wait.

I thought people were getting results next day

Has your friend been doing anything different from his usual routine of late?

Travelled anywhere?

Sucks to hear

 

[RUJohnny]

I went


Not to get off tangent, but tie manufacturers should come up with matching masks and they could become a trendy item to replace pocket squares. Or not. But still more stylish for a wedding than a blue surgical mask.

Beau Ties Vermont is already on that.

 

[RU848789]

Been monitoring global CV data daily since February and noticing that while cases have been jumping globally for over a month, deaths have continued to decrease, even in areas where case growth has been sustained long enough to where an increase in deaths should be coming through in the numbers but isn't. Seeing this in some US states as well.

Is this a noted medical trend or just a weird data artifact due to bad reporting?

Deaths in much of South/Central America are increasing rapidly, but there are also reporting issues, as some of these countries do not have advanced health care systems. Deaths are obviously way down in most of the US/Europe, where deaths are much more likely to have been captured accurately - looking at total global deaths doesn't really say much about the virus (especially as positive cases are increasing).

 

[Ronnie_B]

Unfortunately, it still generally takes from a few days to up to a week to get test results in NJ, which is disappointing. Have not heard of any spike in NJ and there's no obvious increase through yesterday's data, so sounds like the doc is misinformed.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...lmart-cvs-rite-aid-locations-june-7-2020.html

He could also be confused on what he's hearing from the doctor which is understandable when one's self is dealing with a fever near 104.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Came across this story of a lady documenting her battle with COVID 65 days in....some "depressing/uncomfortable" (for lack of a better term) pics involved and she's encouraging people to wear masks. Can't know for sure if you'll be fine or wind up with long lingering problems or worse..so it's good as a reminder of how serious it can be for some.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/folks-refuse-wear-mask-hear-050048411.html

 

[Ronnie_B]

I thought people were getting results next day

Has your friend been doing anything different from his usual routine of late?

Travelled anywhere?

Sucks to hear

I'll find out more later, I don't want to bog him down with questions considering how it's kicking his ass at the moment.

 

[RU-05]

Just to clarify, you heard from someone who works in a hospital that the spike is in new cases or testing?

Sorry, no, I heard it took a long time to get test results back.

My thought on the spike in tests vs cases is based on:

A)That is what the data says.

B)It makes more sense that an increase in testing would create a backlog. I don't see the reasoning as to why an increase in positives would create a backlog. Unless they take longer to process?

 

[RU-05]

Beau Ties Vermont is already on that.

Great name.