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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Protests won't show up yet , but when they do, I'm sure there will be an excuse or deflection by the usual suspects
Not me, those protests will def contribute to the rise in cases.

I will say that a decent number of those protesters were wearing masks, I think there was some level of social distancing going on, at least at times.

But yeah, like opening the economy, those protests will lead to a rise in cases.
 
do you work for the town parks department? Because you are really moving the goalposts.

If the fatality rate is on the decline, you should be happy about that. It seems you don't want to want the numbers to decline. Very sad.

BTW - I don't work for the town. Where do you work? Has your income been affected by the shut down?
 
Their most recent number is 3 down from 185 and you deduct that herd immunity didn't work? Just curious, has your income been effected at all by the shutdown?

They didn’t come close to herd immunity. Last time I checked they were only at like 7% of the population got infected. Social distancing helped them more.

Income was not impacted.
 
If the fatality rate is on the decline, you should be happy about that. It seems you don't want to want the numbers to decline. Very sad.

BTW - I don't work for the town. Where do you work? Has your income been affected by the shut down?
no it hasn't been. But you are moving the goal posts and cherry picking and lying.
 
I'm gonna call you out because we are on the same side of the argument, but can we stop with the mud throwing.
dude comes at me in every post with his stupidity, and hasn't posted one non political thing or non-attack in this thread, and is a known drunk he brags about it all the time.
 
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you said "most recent" total. It's not hard to find the post.

Wrong. I went back to the post and here's what it says "Their numbers are bottoming out. they went from 185 deaths on April 21 down to 3 deaths on June 8th."
 
Arizona Hospitals Told To Activate ‘Emergency Plans’ Amid Coronavirus Spike

Since Arizona lifted its stay-at-home order on May 15, coronavirus cases have increased 115%, reaching record highs and leading officials to call on hospitals to “fully activate” their emergency plans as intensive care units reach capacity.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexan...cy-plans-amid-coronavirus-spike/#ac508ab237f4
Only going to get worse too. Perhaps much worse in fall.

And I don't think shutting things back down is the answer, but I do suspect AZ was not taking this too seriously. I suspect this because I talk to a lot of people in NJ who are still comparing this to the flu.
 
They didn’t come close to herd immunity. Last time I checked they were only at like 7% of the population got infected. Social distancing helped them more.

Income was not impacted.

How do we know only 7% have been infected? Have they given the antibody test to every citizen?

Glad to hear your income hasn't been affected. As for those it has, f*ck em. Right? Let's keep the panic going and collapse the economy.
 
No, we are just not trying to hide deaths in order to push an agenda.

I have no agenda, but I do have empathy. I feel bad for the millions of unemployed and the millions with no prospects. If opening up businesses helps those people and it doesn't result to large increase in deaths from COVID, then we should open up. There's no way we're going to get down to zero, but we have to think about the amount of deaths and misery the shut down is causing.
 
How do we know only 7% have been infected? Have they given the antibody test to every citizen?

Glad to hear your income hasn't been affected. As for those it has, f*ck em. Right? Let's keep the panic going and collapse the economy.

Based on antibody testing. Not everyone obviously, but you don’t need to test everyone to estimate.

Definitely not f*ck everyone who’s been impacted, just saying how it is.
 
Can we not find a middle ground where we accept it's a major concern, but still not go into panic mode?

Sure. Let's open back up, but make sure the vulnerable are protected. By vulnerable, that's anyone is old or frail and anyone with lung disease or overweight.
 
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I have no agenda, but I do have empathy. I feel bad for the millions of unemployed and the millions with no prospects. If opening up businesses helps those people and it doesn't result to large increase in deaths from COVID, then we should open up. There's no way we're going to get down to zero, but we have to think about the amount of deaths and misery the shut down is causing.
I agree.

But people forget that NYC was on the verge of being overrun. And yeah they built field hospitals, and brought in boats that were not necessary, but they definitely would have been necessary if not for the shut downs.

I think the question as to why Sweden(or Miami or Dallas) was not overrun while NYC(and cities in Italy and Spain and the UK) was is a very intersting one. But I don't think you can say, hey Sweden didn't shut down, thus we should not have either. Their situation was much different.
 
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Based on antibody testing. Not everyone obviously, but you don’t need to test everyone to estimate.

Definitely not f*ck everyone who’s been impacted, just saying how it is.

Right, how it is. The death rate in Sweden is going down.
 
Sure. Let's open back up, but make sure the vulnerable are protected. By vulnerable, that's anyone is old or frail and anyone with lung disease or overweight.
And masks. So many people are against them, but they seem like such an easy measure to take. Even if the efficacy turns out to be minimal, there is no damage done by wearing masks.

Still I think certain segments of the economy are going to have serious issues even as we try to open up.
 
The Sweden Experiment with Limited Social Distancing...

It's certainly not "over" yet, but they're doing far worse than their similarly situated, similarly low population density Nordic neighbors, Norway and Finland, especially in deaths, which is what really matters; these neighbors are also doing much more testing per capita (and tracing) and practicing much more aggressive social distancing. Cases per 1MM are less different, likely because of far less testing. I threw Denmark, Iceland and Germany in, too, even though their densities are a bit different. And Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, which are just a bit above Sweden in density are also doing much better than Sweden, with all of them below 40 deaths/1MM.

Sure Sweden is doing better than some of the much more densely populated countries, but on a density basis they're pretty much a very bad outlier. Ireland, though has about 3X the density as Sweden and has similar deaths/1MM and Spain at 4-5X the density of Sweden has 2X the death rate per 1MM as Sweden. Germany is an outlier in the other direction with 10X the density of Sweden (and is more dense than all the major EU countries other than the UK), but has a death rate of only 79/1MM - they've been the model country with regard to early/aggressive testing, tracing/isolating and social distancing (along with Denmark).

Country......Cases/1MM.......Deaths/1MM........Tests/1MM.....Density (per sq mi)
Sweden..........2088......................256.....................11K.....................56
Finland.............902.......................38.......................17K....................43
Norway............1427......................39.......................31K....................41
Iceland............5266......................29......................141K.....................8
Denmark.........1580......................78.......................33K...................345
Germany.........1945......................79.......................30K...................576

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52395866

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

...and What It Might Mean for Sweden and the US (and more)

Some from Sweden also recently said they thought they'd be at "herd immunity" in several weeks. My guess is that's a pipe dream. Sweden has 1800 positive viral cases per 1MM, which is 0.18%, while NY has 15K cases per 1MM, which is 1.5% viral cases and NY's antibody sampling shows 15% actually with antibodies right now (were infected) or about 10X the level of cases. If Sweden had a similar ratio, they'd have 1.8% of their population with antibodies (10X 0.18%), which is almost nothing compared to herd immunity estimates of 54% if the transmission rate, R0, is 2.2 (as thought awhile back) or 82% if R0 is 5.7 (as more are thinking now).

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/22...immunity-in-weeks.html?recirc=taboolainternal

However, they're saying Stockholm has 11% with antibodies, although Stockholm is far more densely populated than the rest of the country, as the country, overall has 64 people per sq mi, (near last in Europe) vs. Stockholm's 13,000 per sq mi (200X more densely populated) - so maybe it's possible for both to be true, ie.., 11% antibodies in Stockholm (which has 22% of Sweden's population) and 1.8% of Sweden with antibodies, overall (11/1.8 = 6 and 100/22 = 4.5).

So, if Sweden, right now is only at 1.8% of the population infected with antibodies, they have a very long way to go to reach herd immunity, which looks to be 20-30X their current infection%, meaning that's theoretically 20-30X more hospitalized/dead than they have now, assuming no interventions or great treatments/cures before then. That's a worst case, as infections would slow down as an area nears herd immunity, plus very low density locations might simply not sustain infections through the population - which could also be true for swaths of middle America, although those hotspots in meatpacking plants and small town flare-ups should be scaring the crap out of Middle America, but they don't seem to be.

Same is possible in the US if we're not smart about how we reopen and are not ready to stamp out flareups as they occur (with aggressive testing/tracing/isolating). We might be at ~3% of the US that have been infected, I'd guess, just roughly based on comparison to NY's data, where 15% have antibodies and 1.5% have tested positive for the virus (10X ratio), so that the US with 0.3% tested positive for the virus (1MM of 330MM) would then be 3.0% with antibodies (10X).

So, if the US, right now is only at 3% of the population infected with antibodies, we also have a very long way to go to reach herd immunity, which looks to be 15-25X their current infection%, meaning that's theoretically 15-25X more hospitalized/dead than we have now, assuming no interventions or great treatments/cures before then. Infections should slow down quite a bit once above 30-40% infected (less targets and less infected), so I doubt we're talking truly 15-25X more hospitalized dead, but I think 10-15X more is definitely a risk. That's 10-15X the 60K deaths we've seen - over whatever time it would take to reach herd immunity if we're not practicing any interventions (probably 6+ months).

We better hope we get a spring/summer lull, like we do with the flu to give us more time to develop treatments/cures/vaccines by fall and to improve our infrastructure for massive testing/tracing and isolating, just in case the next wave is strong. If there's no seasonal lull, we're likely in for a very bad time in this country if we reopen too aggressively and without a good testing/tracing infrastructure in place. Our other hope is that maybe, somehow, our antibody tests are off and many more have been infected than we know (or are somehow immune) - but hope isn't a strategy.

Update on Sweden, as the architect of their much more "hands off" approach to lockdowns and distancing is now admitting they probably didn't get it quite right, as Sweden continues to do badly especially relative to their similarly situated Nordic neighbors, who took much more aggressive interventions, as Sweden has about 8-10X the death rate of Norway/Finland with similar population density. Sweden now also has the highest per capita death rate in the world over the past few weeks. Where's T with his praise for how well Sweden handled this pandemic?

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, agreed with the interviewer on Sveriges Radio that too many people had died in the country. “If we would encounter the same disease, with exactly what we know about it today, I think we would land midway between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did,” said Mr Tegnell in the interview broadcast on Wednesday morning.

Mr Tegnell’s admission is striking as for months he has criticised other countries’ lockdowns and insisted that Sweden’s approach was more sustainable despite heavy international scrutiny of its stubbornly high death toll.

The public mood in Sweden appears to have shifted somewhat since neighbouring Norway and Denmark last week opened their borders to each other but not their close neighbour. Sweden has reported a much higher death toll relative to its population size than Norway.


https://www.ft.com/content/dae6d006-9adc-46d5-9b4e-79a7841022e8

I would expect massive amounts of deaths, but that hasn't happened. Looks like Sweden had it right all along. Their numbers are bottoming out. they went from 185 deaths on April 21 down to 3 deaths on June 8th.

You really ought to do a little more reading and a little less ill-informed posting. One of the highest death rates per capita in Europe - and far higher than its similarly situated Nordic neighbors - and they're only at ~7% infection rate so far, which is way, way below the 55-80% herd immunity level.
 
no it hasn't been. But you are moving the goal posts and cherry picking and lying.

How am I lying? Here is the link right here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Take a look at the graph. The number of deaths is on a downward trend.

While your income hasn't been affected, I guess you don't give a Damm about anybody else, but can't you have just the tiniest bit of empathy for the millions of unemployed who's checks are about to run out and have no job to go back to?
 
Sweden admits to being too optimistic in its CV planning

We should have done more, admits architect of Sweden's Covid-19 strategy

"Sweden’s death rate per capita was the highest in the world over the seven days to 2 June, figures suggest. This week the government bowed to mounting opposition pressure and promised to set up a commission to look into its Covid-19 strategy.

“If we were to encounter the same disease again knowing exactly what we know about it today, I think we would settle on doing something in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,” Tegnell said. It would be “good to know exactly what to shut down to curb the spread of infection better”, he added."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-strategy-admits-too-many-died-anders-tegnell
 
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You really ought to do a little more reading and a little less ill-informed posting. One of the highest death rates per capita in Europe - and far higher than its similarly situated Nordic neighbors - and they're only at ~7% infection rate so far, which is way, way below the 55-80% herd immunity level.

You really should stop rooting for Sweden to fail. Take a look at the graph:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Their death rate is going down.

The economy has been collapsed, OK? We are at depression numbers and economist say it will take nine years to recover. You're mission has been accomplished. You can stop spreading the fear now at let us get back to work.
 
You really ought to do a little more reading and a little less ill-informed posting. One of the highest death rates per capita in Europe - and far higher than its similarly situated Nordic neighbors - and they're only at ~7% infection rate so far, which is way, way below the 55-80% herd immunity level.
And if I'm not mistaken they never had the major cluster situation like we saw in other Euro countries with high death rates.

Also to back up your "nordic neighbors" point

Sweden 4795 deaths, 475 deaths per million.

Finland 328 deaths, 58 deaths per million.
 
And if I'm not mistaken they never had the major cluster situation like we saw in other Euro countries with high death rates.

Also to back up your "nordic neighbors" point

Sweden 4795 deaths, 475 deaths per million.

Finland 328 deaths, 58 deaths per million.

To be fair, Finland's population density is a third lower than Sweden's. Population density has more than a little to do with disease spread.
 
dude comes at me in every post with his stupidity, and hasn't posted one non political thing or non-attack in this thread, and is a known drunk he brags about it all the time.
Proud is often pretty far to the right and a bit reactionary at times on the CE board, but in this thread he's been mostly on the side of the science, since the beginning, and trying to see what we can do to contain this pandemic.
 
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Is this a too simplistic summary of the options:

Gov Murphy continues the quarantine/lock down indefinitely until a vaccine is available to keep infections low - but econommy and quality of life goes down for everyone

Or

Gov Murphy opens up the state now that hospitals have recovered from the surge and lets businesses start to recover ' but this likely leads to an increase in infections/deaths until "herd immunity" is reached
 
Seems like Gov Murphy is going option 2 and opening up econony with minimal requirements in outdoor public spaces (no mask requirements).
 
How am I lying? Here is the link right here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Take a look at the graph. The number of deaths is on a downward trend.

While your income hasn't been affected, I guess you don't give a Damm about anybody else, but can't you have just the tiniest bit of empathy for the millions of unemployed who's checks are about to run out and have no job to go back to?
while no one in your family has died (hopefully) of Corona virus, I guess you don't give a damn about the 110,000 dead Americans who are dead. You don't get paid to work when you are dead. See how easy your logic is. No deaths are un an upward trend, they had 78 today.
 
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