COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[m1ipabrams]

Holy crap. You're ok with 150K deaths because it was near the first projection (which was changed within 24 hours to 100k) and really think this is the best path? Successful? We killed an economy and gained nothing except overwhelming hospitals.
The opening of Southern States has produced more cases and deaths but far from projected and nowhere close to NJ, NY numbers. So who has done better? Closed states or open?

1. Where did I say I was okay with 150k deaths? And the first projections(with no restrictions) were for several million, which is nowhere near the 150k current value.
2. You have still not provided any level of details of how your strategy might work. I have provided some specific challenges based on some assumption about what your strategy entails. Feel free to respond to those points.
3. Opening of southern states. - The southern states are not "open" in the sense of what your strategy is implying. And where they have moved to reduce(not eliminate like you propose)restrictions, there have been large spikes in infections. Good news is the healthcare system have been able to mostly address the increased load, but there have been point issues. In those places, they have ramped back up restrictions, in some cases those restrictions are worse than the restrictions in the Northeast. So I don't think there is a valid open vs closed comparison here.

 

[bac2therac]

It's because indoor dining/bars are known to be one of the least safe activities with a virus as transmissible as this one is. Unfortunately, since one has to take one's mask off to eat/drink, until restaurants/bars figure out a way to have airflows high enough (upwards, especially) to keep people from table 1 infecting people from table 2, indoor dining won't work. It's an even tougher challenge for bars/drinking, where people are usually much closer.

We wont survive 2 years of this

 

[ArminRU]

One of the immune drugs (tocilizumab ) that when given to those on ventilators improved outcomes up to 45% . I’m sure that anti inflammatory and steroids in controlled dosages have been helpful.

Yeah that’s the one we were talking about. Proved today that it doesn’t do much.

 

[bac2therac]

We know this?

Lol you think everything goes to normal just because a vaccine comes..thing again..by the time its adminstered to everyone.....

 

[WhiteBus]

I've also heard DE doesn't comply very well.

Monmouth county NJ is strong compliance in stores, bars not so much.

I was in the Oceanpory ShopRite on 4th of July. I can't see how you can say that.
So we're going to sacrifice a huge industry over a perceived use of masks. Brilliant strategy.

 

[RU-05]

Lol you think everything goes to normal just because a vaccine comes..thing again..by the time its adminstered to everyone.....

This response is supposed to back up the idea that we "know" we will be wearing masks for 18 months post vaccine development?

 

[WhiteBus]

1. Where did I say I was okay with 150k deaths? And the first projections(with no restrictions) were for several million, which is nowhere near the 150k current value.
2. You have still not provided any level of details of how your strategy might work. I have provided some specific challenges based on some assumption about what your strategy entails. Feel free to respond to those points.
3. Opening of southern states. - The southern states are not "open" in the sense of what your strategy is implying. And where they have moved to reduce(not eliminate like you propose)restrictions, there have been large spikes in infections. Good news is the healthcare system have been able to mostly address the increased load, but there have been point issues. In those places, they have ramped back up restrictions, in some cases those restrictions are worse than the restrictions in the Northeast. So I don't think there is a valid open vs closed comparison here.

And some are way less restrictive. Yet NJ/NY are still by far the worst rates in the nation but you say they did it right.
It's simple to separate high risk from the rest. They stay home like we all did until there is a treatment or a vaccine. Shop online for everything and have it dropped off. Nursing homes lower density.

I work with several hundred essential workers. For the most part life has been normal for us. Go to work, work long hours and go home. We had 4 employees test positive. 2 from spouses who work in emergency wards. 2 from ? 3 had no symptoms. All 4 are back to work. Life hasn't changed for us much. Time for everyone to join in.

 

[bac2therac]

This response is supposed to back up the idea that we "know" we will be wearing masks for 18 months post vaccine development?

Prolly 2 years from right now..yup

 

[RU-05]

I was in the Oceanpory ShopRite on 4th of July. I can't see how you can say that.
So we're going to sacrifice a huge industry over a perceived use of masks. Brilliant strategy.

You're conflating points.

I guess you could say we are keeping stores open because of a perceived use of masks.

You could also say we keep certain industries closed because we know you can not wear a mask while consuming in those industries.

But you can not say that we are keeping the bar restaurant an industry closed because of a perceived use of masks. That doesn't make sense.

 

[RU-05]

Prolly 2 years from right now..yup

There is a difference between you thinking it, and us knowing it.

 

[RU-05]

And some are way less restrictive. Yet NJ/NY are still by far the worst rates in the nation but you say they did it right.
It's simple to separate high risk from the rest. They stay home like we all did until there is a treatment or a vaccine. Shop online for everything and have it dropped off. Nursing homes lower density.

I work with several hundred essential workers. For the most part life has been normal for us. Go to work, work long hours and go home. We had 4 employees test positive. 2 from spouses who work in emergency wards. 2 from ? 3 had no symptoms. All 4 are back to work. Life hasn't changed for us much. Time for everyone to join in.

NY NJ did poorly early on before restrictions were put in place.

They have done very well in terms of bringing down and keeping down infections since.

FL TX AZ amongst other states have seen their #'s spike after opening up.

Now I'm not against the idea of somehow figuring out how to open up restaurants, but let's at least make it clear what the time line looks like leading up to this point.

 

[RU848789]

We wont survive 2 years of this

Actually, we will if we have to - it'll just be a different world and a different economy, sadly - but I have high confidence we're only talking 4-6 more months of this.

 

[Joey Bags]

Had an interesting discussion last night with the group I do on and off geopolitical consulting freelance work for.

It's very noteworthy that both China and Russia are absolutely racing to develop a vaccine, in many cases cutting all kinds of safety efficacy testing corners to do so. Both have stated the objective is to vaccinate the entirety of their armed forces first, civilians second.

If China were to obtain a viable, safe vaccine for their armed forces significantly in advance of the west, they would have a rare opportunity to attempt to take Taiwan by force knowing the US/NATO would not be able to mount an effective response short of using nuclear weapons (we saw how quickly our carrier battle groups were affected by the virus in the South Pacific and it still is spreading throughout our forces at home). Ditto with Russia and Ukraine/Baltic nations. Given the West would likely not commit to a nuclear exchange, China and or Russia effectively vaccinating their armed forces in advance of the West would present a scenario where for the first time since the late 1980s the US would not enjoy full spectrum military dominance over the planet.

Not saying any of this is "likely", but something interesting to consider when it comes to the impact of the virus on the global geostrategic balance of power.

 

[RUBOB72]

I didn't think you were necessarily referring to me personally.

My comment was a general one. I find it interesting that people(this happens on both/all sides of any argument) who disagree with others, often find it necessary to demonize those that they don't agree with(I interpreted your statement "strangely love the daily death totals" to mean they were reveling in the deaths, perhaps I was mistaken.). Rather than focusing on the merits of the argument, they focus on the person.

Bit of a soapbox here (and Rubob72, I am not accusing you of this, and perhaps even supporting some of your position), but I dislike when arguments boil down to "you disagree with me, therefore you are un-american or a deathmonger or a fear monger". People have all sorts of opinions on things, and rarely are those opinions "un-american". The British used to call(perhaps they still do) the party not in power the "Loyal Opposition". I always found that terminology incredibly important. Republicans and Democrats can have hugely different ideas on what is best for the country, but in general I believe that both truly have the best intentions. We should want/need them to argue about the details, but we shouldn't want them arguing about whether their opponents are "un-american".

Actually the post from WB that you were responding to was WB's response to me. So while I didn't consider your statement to specifically include me, it was in response to a portion of the thread I was involved with/arguably initiated.

Why does my specific example show a total lack of reasoning?[/QUOTE
My posting was to WhiteBus not to you so keep the delusions going in your mind. Always an excuse but nobody mentioned you nor anyone else . You assumed something and figured “ they’re talking about me” and you would be wrong ...

 

[WhiteBus]

You're conflating points.

I guess you could say we are keeping stores open because of a perceived use of masks.

You could also say we keep certain industries closed because we know you can not wear a mask while consuming in those industries.

But you can not say that we are keeping the bar restaurant an industry closed because of a perceived use of masks. That doesn't make sense.

People in offices, stores etc there is a perception that they are safer because everyone is wearing a mask properly and all the time. However that is not the case. The perception of no masks in bars/restaurants ignores the benefit of social distancing which they can control unlike a store where there is none.
Easy to figure out. The governor's of NY, NJ. Aren't keeping bar and restaurants closed because of lack of masks. They cite viral pictures from Southern States showing big crowds and say that's not happening here and close everything. Stupid logic.

 

[RUBOB72]

Yeah that’s the one we were talking about. Proved today that it doesn’t do much.

Well , that’s too bad as I said initially , there are others being worked on ... so if we are a little lucky maybe and if not we will all adjust until there is.

 

[WhiteBus]

NY NJ did poorly early on before restrictions were put in place.

They have done very well in terms of bringing down and keeping down infections since.

FL TX AZ amongst other states have seen their #'s spike after opening up.

Now I'm not against the idea of somehow figuring out how to open up restaurants, but let's at least make it clear what the time line looks like leading up to this point.

NJ and NY locked down early March. They were more than a month away from their peak. So you are wrong there.
They have had 4 months to figure it out. Please stop with the excuses.

 

[RU23]

Had an interesting discussion last night with the group I do on and off geopolitical consulting freelance work for.

It's very noteworthy that both China and Russia are absolutely racing to develop a vaccine, in many cases cutting all kinds of safety efficacy testing corners to do so. Both have stated the objective is to vaccinate the entirety of their armed forces first, civilians second.

If China were to obtain a viable, safe vaccine for their armed forces significantly in advance of the west, they would have a rare opportunity to attempt to take Taiwan by force knowing the US/NATO would not be able to mount an effective response short of using nuclear weapons (we saw how quickly our carrier battle groups were affected by the virus in the South Pacific and it still is spreading throughout our forces at home). Ditto with Russia and Ukraine/Baltic nations. Given the West would likely not commit to a nuclear exchange, China and or Russia effectively vaccinating their armed forces in advance of the West would present a scenario where for the first time since the late 1980s the US would not enjoy full spectrum military dominance over the planet.

Not saying any of this is "likely", but something interesting to consider when it comes to the impact of the virus on the global geostrategic balance of power.

Interesting stuff.

 

[RU-05]

NJ and NY locked down early March. They were more than a month away from their peak. So you are wrong there.
They have had 4 months to figure it out. Please stop with the excuses.

I'm not wrong at all. The results of the measure are not seen immediately.

It also took a month after FL began to reopen before they started to see significant increases.

And I wasn't making an excuse I was pointing out your misrepresentation of what has happened.

.

 

[RUBOB72]

This response is supposed to back up the idea that we "know" we will be wearing masks for 18 months post vaccine development?

In Oahu Hawaii yesterday , mayor Kirk Caldwell , is in the process of mandating masks whenever outside the home as well as , places of exercise...outdoors ...He also is thinking about a total shutdown of Bars for 3 weeks in order to stop the virus. However , according to Bar Owners , Caldwell admits fully that 99.9% of the bars on Oahu have not been the reason for the recent spread. Bar owners say, “ if that is the case , why punish 100% when it’s .1 % “ who aren’t following the rules. They are absolutely correct. Caldwell was a misfit way back and now with his new found fame and political power has established his little fifedom . Not much different then here in the East... there’s that Power trip again.

 

[RU-05]

People in offices, stores etc there is a perception that they are safer because everyone is wearing a mask properly and all the time. However that is not the case. The perception of no masks in bars/restaurants ignores the benefit of social distancing which they can control unlike a store where there is none.
Easy to figure out. The governor's of NY, NJ. Aren't keeping bar and restaurants closed because of lack of masks. They cite viral pictures from Southern States showing big crowds and say that's not happening here and close everything. Stupid logic.

Your points are often backed by the idea that since masks are not 100% effective, then they offer an insignificant benefit.

I don't agree with this idea.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

By that time all restaurants will be under.

This a tragedy — especially for city-dwellers; restaurants make our neighborhoods vibrant, are a source of recreation, and employ a lot of the young folks who move into cities to chase their dreams.

They’ll be back, but it will take time, and a lot of good people are going to lose their businesses — and as consumers, we’ll lose a lot of fun places.

 

[RU-05]

In Oahu Hawaii yesterday , mayor Kirk Caldwell , is in the process of mandating masks whenever outside the home as well as , places of exercise...outdoors ...He also is thinking about a total shutdown of Bars for 3 weeks in order to stop the virus. However , according to Bar Owners , Caldwell admits fully that 99.9% of the bars on Oahu have not been the reason for the recent spread. Bar owners say, “ if that is the case , why punish 100% when it’s .1 % “ who aren’t following the rules. They are absolutely correct. Caldwell was a misfit way back and now with his new found fame and political power has established his little fifedom . Not much different then here in the East... there’s that Power trip again.

Is this also a post which suggests we know we will be wearing masks for 18 months post vaccine?

 

[WhiteBus]

Your points are often backed by the idea that since masks are not 100% effective, then they offer an insignificant benefit.

I don't agree with this idea.

No. My point has always been that social distancing is much more effective than masks at close distances. But not insignificant.

 

[Greg2020]

Sweden never locked down.Their deaths per day never reached 100.They're now down to 7.
This proves that a health conscious nation doesn't need draconian measures.

They have one of the highest deaths per capita rate in the world and their economy suffered bigly and still is.

 

[RUBOB72]

This a tragedy — especially for city-dwellers; restaurants make our neighborhoods vibrant, are a source of recreation, and employ a lot of the young folks who move into cities to chase their dreams.

They’ll be back, but it will take time, and a lot of good people are going to lose their businesses — and as consumers, we’ll lose a lot of fun places.

Most will not be back as easily as you claim ... have you talked to many owners lately about their prospects... According to MSM articles and the local horror stories we continuously hear the days of prosperity are over...Winter is neigh and with it comes more closures, and uncertainty... If we have another year of closures “It’s over Johnny”...Wait until Thanksgiving and Christmas is canceled due to covid19... that’s coming especially in the large cities unless everything now is not all factual...Fun-times or should I say Funner ( lol) times ahead.

 

[m1ipabrams]

And some are way less restrictive. Yet NJ/NY are still by far the worst rates in the nation but you say they did it right.

It's simple to separate high risk from the rest. They stay home like we all did until there is a treatment or a vaccine. Shop online for everything and have it dropped off. Nursing homes lower density.

I work with several hundred essential workers. For the most part life has been normal for us. Go to work, work long hours and go home. We had 4 employees test positive. 2 from spouses who work in emergency wards. 2 from ? 3 had no symptoms. All 4 are back to work. Life hasn't changed for us much. Time for everyone to join in.

1. What rates are you talking about? I am assuming death rates. Of course they are the highest, for the reasons already discussed here and else where ad nausuem. Doesn't mean that the national strategy, or even the strategy in NY/NJ were generally wrong.
2. It's simple to separate high risk from the rest. They stay home like we all did until there is a treatment or a vaccine. Shop online for everything and have it dropped off. Nursing homes lower density. - we didn't all stay home, we went to the grocery store, doctors, etc and essential workers(like you) went to work. I think you are suggesting they don't leave the house at all. Okay, lets go with that idea. what happens when there is one person in a household that is in the high risk category(lets just say it is my wife). Since my wife is high risk, she can't leave the house. Fair enough, but what about me and my kids? Does that mean I can't go to work? Or that my kids can't go to school? Cause if we do venture out into the "safe", un-restricted zone, the chances of us bringing home the virus to my wife are pretty high. We could wear a mask if we leave the house, but we know that mask wearing is most effective when both parties are wearing them(the infected person(random person in store) and the potential infectee(in this case me)). In my case we are lucky enough were we could potentially isolate my wife in the basement/inlaw suite, but that is not the situation most housegholds are in. So what we really need to do is isolate any household that has a member that is at risk. I think that substantially raises the % of the pop that would be in that category. As the % of pop in the "un-safe" category grows, the less effect a "good back to normal" strategy has on the economy.

I do agree with your idea that nursing home need to be lower density. As with anything else, that is going to cost money, but I think it is easily arguable that this would be a good thing regardless of the overall strategy.

 

[WhiteBus]

I'm not wrong at all. The results of the measure are not seen immediately.

It also took a month after FL began to reopen before they started to see significant increases.

And I wasn't making an excuse I was pointing out your misrepresentation of what has happened.

.

Yes you are. It doesn't take 6 to 8 weeks for infections to run its course. They did an awful job with the elderly. There is nothing you or anyone can say that says they did a good job.

 

[RUBOB72]

Is this also a post which suggests we know we will be wearing masks for 18 months post vaccine?

Well , you may or may not but , if you know and understand the system of local government on Hawaii ( under Ige the governor and Capt. Kirk Caldwell ) masks will be a way of life... not sure how the people will react ...I have a clue but I am looking forward to the fun ahead.

 

[albanyknight]

Interesting article that was part of a great 20/20 piece on the pandemic.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-red-dawn-emails-trump.html

Interestingly, George W. Bush was the president to first recognize the need for a Federal pandemic response after reading, The Coming Plague by John Barry.

Amazon product ASIN 0143036491

 

[RUBOB72]

1. Again you are looking at worse case scenario only - Perhaps, but I have heard numerous times here and elsewhere that some number is the worst case for Covid-19, and then somehow we manage to well exceed that worst case, so looking at worst cases here still seems pretty valid.
2.Speculate on "infection rates running wild" with something new but ignore the fact that they already did under the current plan - Other than the early days of march in NY/NJ prior to the initial lock-down, we have not seen "infection rates running wild". Now lets consider what happens when a virus with an R0 as high as Covid19 is allowed to spread in a population without intervention. There will be orders of magnitude more infections in the "safe" pop. As I noted, the number of deaths in that group are likely to be relatively small(good thing), but how do you keep that from crossing over to the "un-safe" pop, where the death rate will be significantly higher?
3. How many deaths so far in the US?? - ~150K, which is a significant improvement from the numbers initially forecast without interventions.
4. And you can't figure out how to separate the safe from high risk?? - I actually discussed specific challenges with doing exactly that. How about providing responses on those specific challenges and why I am wrong rather than hurling insults?
5.On top of that you add nothing new. - Agree to disagree on this one.

I’m not attempting to add anything but state how paranoid your reply was and ...it was... Nobody was attacking you or accusing you... but for some inane reason you feel you needed to defend something about “ nefarious intent and evil intents” ... go have a good stiff drink ... man, I sure as hell pray for the day Rutgers is on the playing field or a basketball court and we can all say finally we beat this thing and we will.

 

[RUBOB72]

Actually, we will if we have to - it'll just be a different world and a different economy, sadly - but I have high confidence we're only talking 4-6 more months of this.

I hope you ‘re right... and sometimes even a statement like that goes further than the actually cure.Thanks for the hope.

 

[RU-05]

Yes you are. It doesn't take 6 to 8 weeks for infections to run its course. They did an awful job with the elderly. There is nothing you or anyone can say that says they did a good job.

People were definitely not wearing masks in large percentages in late March. So that could definitely be why the peak of a state like NJ came 6 weeks after restrictions on businesses were imposed. NY began to see the decline from their peak about 4 weeks after restrictions were imposed.

As for the elderly? I already noted we did poorly early. But that is besides the point of whether or not restrictions on certain businesses should be lifted.

 

[RU-05]

No. My point has always been that social distancing is much more effective than masks at close distances. But not insignificant.

But how do you have a successful bar with proper social distancing? That would require significant limiting of patrons, and as we have seen bars then don't adhere to the limits.

 

[m1ipabrams]

Yes you are. It doesn't take 6 to 8 weeks for infections to run its course. They did an awful job with the elderly. There is nothing you or anyone can say that says they did a good job.

Not quite that simple on the 6-8 weeks.

First, you are right for a single individual it doesn't take 6-8 weeks to get to the point where they are sick enough to need to go to the hospital (which in the beginning was how we knew someone had it). But it could easily take 3-4 weeks.

So lets say on March 17th, someone came home on the train from NYC and the next day the lock-down began. On that ride home on the train, he/she was infected by another passenger. They go home and quarantine with their family. After a week or so they become contagious, and maybe have some initial symptoms. So on day 10, they infect their spouse, and few days after that their spouse infects her mom(who lives with them), all the same house. Now the first person symptoms get worse after a couple weeks of having the sniffles and they show up at the hospital on April 17th, 4 weeks after the lockdown. 10 days later(almost six week after the lockdown), the spouse shows up at the hospital, and then a few days later the mom shows up. So here we have a chain of infection within a household that causes additional cases 6-8 weeks post lock-down. Not really a stretch.

I won't argue with you on the elderly, lots of mistakes there.

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

Most will not be back as easily as you claim ... have you talked to many owners lately about their prospects... According to MSM articles and the local horror stories we continuously hear the days of prosperity are over...Winter is neigh and with it comes more closures, and uncertainty... If we have another year of closures “It’s over Johnny”...Wait until Thanksgiving and Christmas is canceled due to covid19... that’s coming especially in the large cities unless everything now is not all factual...Fun-times or should I say Funner ( lol) times ahead.

Yeah, I didn’t mean to sugar coat the situation. There was already something of a restaurant bubble in the last few years leading up to this crisis, so the scale of dining options we’ve had recently in cities may never return. A golden age perhaps of the cocktails and ‘new American’ cuisine has expired.

However, capital will flow to where there is demand (and there is a ton of capital itching to be deployed on the other side of this), and in the absence of the restaurants we love, new ones will start to compete for our appetites.

In between now and then, it will be a blood bath, and breaks my heart as a frequent patron of the industry. Over the last five to ten years, I know a lot of restaurants in my city have formed “restaurant groups.” I hope that this has afforded them some additional access to financing, stimulus, operating leverage, etc. we’ll see.

 

[RU-05]

Yeah, I didn’t mean to sugar coat the situation. There was already something of a restaurant bubble in the last few years leading up to this crisis, so the scale of dining options we’ve had recently in cities may never return. A golden age perhaps of the cocktails and ‘new American’ cuisine has expired.

However, capital will flow to where there is demand (and there is a ton of capital itching to be deployed on the other side of this), and in the absence of the restaurants we love, new ones will start to compete for our appetites.

In between now and then, it will be a blood bath, and breaks my heart as a frequent patron of the industry. Over the last five to ten years, I know a lot of restaurants in my city have formed “restaurant groups.” I hope that this has afforded them some additional access to financing, stimulus, operating leverage, etc. we’ll see.

Yeah there is a pretty significant part of the population who are thriving financially. So once we get to the point where restaurants can be opened to full capacity, if many of the ones that did exist no longer do, then I think those that have made money will then look to fill that need. They will likely enjoy cheaper rents because of it too.

 

[m1ipabrams]

I’m not attempting to add anything but state how paranoid your reply was and ...it was... Nobody was attacking you or accusing you... but for some inane reason you feel you needed to defend something about “ nefarious intent and evil intents” ... go have a good stiff drink ... man, I sure as hell pray for the day Rutgers is on the playing field or a basketball court and we can all say finally we beat this thing and we will.

Again, I wasn't feel personally attacked and it was not my intent to personally "attack" you, if you feel that I did, I happily apologize. My response was more intended to make the general point that I wished people didn't ascribe negative intentions to other people's opinions, and instead focused their arguments on the details of the opinion(ie is the idea of segrating low-risk and high-risk pops workable). I interpreted you posting to fit that, and if that is not what you intended, then I misread it.

I too look forward to the day that we can all cram into Rutgers stadium and watch RU beat PSU.

 

[bac2therac]

Actually, we will if we have to - it'll just be a different world and a different economy, sadly - but I have high confidence we're only talking 4-6 more months of this.

Its going to take waaaaaaay longer than that to administer the vaccines and makes sure everyone has them...so its basically 18 months to 2 years

 

[WhiteBus]

1. What rates are you talking about? I am assuming death rates. Of course they are the highest, for the reasons already discussed here and else where ad nausuem. Doesn't mean that the national strategy, or even the strategy in NY/NJ were generally wrong.
2. It's simple to separate high risk from the rest. They stay home like we all did until there is a treatment or a vaccine. Shop online for everything and have it dropped off. Nursing homes lower density. - we didn't all stay home, we went to the grocery store, doctors, etc and essential workers(like you) went to work. I think you are suggesting they don't leave the house at all. Okay, lets go with that idea. what happens when there is one person in a household that is in the high risk category(lets just say it is my wife). Since my wife is high risk, she can't leave the house. Fair enough, but what about me and my kids? Does that mean I can't go to work? Or that my kids can't go to school? Cause if we do venture out into the "safe", un-restricted zone, the chances of us bringing home the virus to my wife are pretty high. We could wear a mask if we leave the house, but we know that mask wearing is most effective when both parties are wearing them(the infected person(random person in store) and the potential infectee(in this case me)). In my case we are lucky enough were we could potentially isolate my wife in the basement/inlaw suite, but that is not the situation most housegholds are in. So what we really need to do is isolate any household that has a member that is at risk. I think that substantially raises the % of the pop that would be in that category. As the % of pop in the "un-safe" category grows, the less effect a "good back to normal" strategy has on the economy.

I do agree with your idea that nursing home need to be lower density. As with anything else, that is going to cost money, but I think it is easily arguable that this would be a good thing regardless of the overall strategy.

Sending sick elderly back to the nursing homes was a correct strategy?? My god you will defend anything the state did. No need to reply. I won't read any of your crap anymore. You have a bias and say some really stupid stuff