Interesting take. Certainly possible that China would invade Taiwan, or at a minimum Kinmen Island. IMHO, I think it has more to do with human test subjects that cant opt out of the vaccine program. Time will tell.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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I certainly agree with your restaurant bubble fact.Very good and true as I have had conversations with many on that concern. With the worldly love of food, shows on food, and the possibility of entrepreneurship and freedom it has appeal. But too many failures prior to this pandemic. I certainly feel you are correct but we can not withstand another 8-12 month limitation even with the risks involved. Once again the at risk groups need to be smart and only eat at home or outside venues. Especially in the northern climates. Those not as much at risk need to be able to sit ( distanced) inside and be smart... businesses need to think creatively and outside of what was the norm at least for awhile. The large group chains can absorb more but it is the average Jim or Jane who will be at risk . Good post Barnaby & Neill.
Murphy is blaming house parties for the rise in cases.If he's not careful with this,Art Linkletter's ghost will be haunting him.
No we all have to some extent been completely changed by this event . The people I have met from Rutgers in school , work or at sporting events are kind and smart. People who are impacted by something no world should ever experience . All I want to see is a bit less death talk ( we all get it ) and more hope talk . We all owe it to those who are trying to find answers ... especially in science...as my “older adult” sons tell me ,” dad , enough already.”
Sorry if already posted-
Arizona’s 7 day rolling deaths total is now down to 481; a significant decline from its peak of 581 on July 21st. That’s the good news.
Florida with the bad news today: another daily high for deaths in the State at 216; rolling 7 day now at 986, up from 830 a week ago.
Arizona’s 7 day rolling deaths total is now down to 481; a significant decline from its peak of 581 on July 21st. That’s the good news.
Florida with the bad news today: another daily high for deaths in the State at 216; rolling 7 day now at 986, up from 830 a week ago.
You're simply wrong on this. Pfizer/BioNTech are already starting to manufacture their vaccine, at-risk, and have promised 100MM doses will be available by the end of the year. Moderna will be doing something similar as will Oxford/Astra-Zeneca. These companies will have vaccines ready before approval.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/us/politics/pfizer-coronavirus-vaccine.html
We also have a robust distribution/administration system in place for the influenza virus and my guess is supply may actually exceed demand at first, since quite a few people are going to be a bit leery of any vaccine (given the very fast timelines and concerns over safety), plus there are the anti-vaxxers out there.
Overall, I wouldn't think it will take more than a couple of months to distribute the vaccine for everyone who wants it: influenza vaccines are mostly distributed over a 2-3 month period to about half the US population and many estimates are we'll get about half of the US to get a COVID vaccine, so the scale is quite similar.
Beaches are a large problem in the spread... California, Florida ,Texas are examples ... and frustrated young folks forgetting they are a big part of controlling the virus . Large parties at bars and “ mansion home rentals “ certainly is not acting responsibly. In a way I understand yet find it troubling at my age. The greatest generation if alive today would be shocked at attitudes in our country.
Numbers your recent postings ( have been to me ) uplifting in a sense of sooner than say 2025... I mean this a good way...
The done is done ... can’t change what has happened early in this disease ... it is time for people to see that... it is a time to begin positive dialogues especially on this board... if we all work together and truly care it can be done regardless of the crap going on in our country.It should never be about differences in politics... It should be about all.
Positive news:
Rt.live shows the transmission rate in AZ, FL, TX, GA, and others is doing quite well currently.
Yes, deaths are still climbing in FL, but that should peak soon as deaths, of course, lag infections.
It looks like most of the South is on the downside of the curve.
States struggling with the highest R0 rates currently are small (in population) and remote like Hawaii and Alaska.
The optimist in me says that we are seeing a cap in infections similar to the "dark matter" resistance to covid that some have theorized. That of course does not mean that individuals (especially those with high risk and those close to them) can totally relax. But it seems like good news.
Rt.live shows the transmission rate in AZ, FL, TX, GA, and others is doing quite well currently.
Yes, deaths are still climbing in FL, but that should peak soon as deaths, of course, lag infections.
It looks like most of the South is on the downside of the curve.
States struggling with the highest R0 rates currently are small (in population) and remote like Hawaii and Alaska.
The optimist in me says that we are seeing a cap in infections similar to the "dark matter" resistance to covid that some have theorized. That of course does not mean that individuals (especially those with high risk and those close to them) can totally relax. But it seems like good news.
I know the very detailed weekly posts on this are long, but there is an up front summary and lots of good graphics comparing at least FL/AZ/TX/CA/NJ (as a reference) and national numbers. Easy to miss the 3 a posts, lol. Florida may also have an adjustment coming from what I read.
Summary:
Details - Cases
- Note: I'm using 7-day moving averages on a per capita (per 1MM) basis for these discussions of cases, hospitalizations and deaths, from the Covidtracking site. The biggest issue right now, data-wise, is the Covidtracking site has incorporated the extra 600 TX deaths on one day on the TX chart, but appears to have spread them out over the last 6 days in the national chart (and Worldometers hasn't put them in yet, which is why they're death 7-day avg is about 100 less than Covidtracking).
- Nationally, cases definitely have now peaked and remain roughly at ~2X vs. the first wave, while hospitalizations look to be just peaking now and will likely be slightly more than the peak in the first wave, but only a little more than half of what they were in the first wave (relative to cases, which are now twice as much per capita). Deaths are up nearly 2.2X from their early July low and climbing steadily and are now about 50% of the April peak (1150 now vs. 2250 in April - 7-day averages).
- Cases are clearly declining in AZ and are just starting to decline in FL/TX/CA. The AZ peak was about 30% more, per capita (per 1MM people) than the NJ peak (about 3500/day or 400/1MM) per day or , while the FL peak was ~50% more, the TX peak was ~10% less and the CA peak was ~40% less.
- AZ's hospitalizations peaked (and are declining) at ~55% of NJ's (which were 8000 total or 900 per 1MM), while FL is peaking at about 50% of NJ's per capita rate and TX is peaking at ~45% of NJ's rate, but it's still too early to call the peak for FL/TX yet; CA looks like it's about to peak at maybe 25-30% of NJ's peak. These reductions vs. NJ are likely due to the much younger age of those infected in this wave.
- My guesstimate has been that deaths in AZ/FL/TX would likely be about 1/3-2/3 of the peaks of NJ (about 270-300/day or ~31/1MM); NY's was a little higher), partly due to the younger age of those infected (as above) and partly due to improved treatments and procedures. AZ has likely peaked at ~40% of NJ's peak, but they're having major fluctuations, so hard to call a peak yet. FL and TX are now at 20-25% and 30% of NJ's peak, respectively, and neither has peaked. CA's case/hospitalization rates have been well below the other 3 states and is why CA is only at 10% of NJ's peak and will likely max out at <15% of NJ's peak.
Still going to try to do this weekly for awhile, as weekly as likely infrequent enough to not be fooled by 1-2 day deviations that aren't that relevant (like the usual weekend dips), but frequent enough to see changes occurring. Let's look at cases first, starting with the national picture, where total cases have definitely now reached a peak (a 2-week plateau, so far) around 65-67K cases per day (7-day avg) which is about twice what the peak in the first wave was (around 31-32K cases/day over a 4-week plateau).
The "good" news is Arizona has clearly peaked in cases and started to decline significantly, while Florida, Texas, and California all appear to be at their peaks and just starting to decline. Many other states could be discussed, but these seemed relevant, as FL/TX/CA are the three most populous states and they're peaking and AZ peaked a bit earlier and has a similar population as NJ, which I'm including as a comparison from the worst of the first wave and since there's so much local interest. It should be noted that AZ peaked ~30% above NJ's peak of ~400/1MM, FL peaked ~50% above NJ's peak, TX peaked ~10% below NJ's peak, and CA peaked about 40% less than NJ's peak (I'm using per capita data for all the graphs, so they're "apples to apples" comparisons).
Details - Hospitalizations
With regard to hospitalizations, on a national level, hospitalizations are just starting to peak and will probably peak just a little bit above what they were in the first wave, despite there being twice as many cases. This was expected several weeks ago, when it became clear that there was a much younger average age of those infected in most states in this current wave (vs. wave 1) and the hospitalization rates in AZ (which had a 1-2 week earlier outbreak than FL/TX/CA) were tracking at about half the rate of NJ's. Note that if COVID were as deadly as it was in the first wave (it's thought to be) one would expect eventual death peaks to mirror relative hospitalization rates, i.e., if a state peaks at 50% of NJ's peak hospitalization rate, one would expect deaths to be around 50%, also (assuming no improved treatments/procedures).
Looking at states, AZ peaked at about 55% of NJ's hospitalization rate, i.e., about 500 per 1MM vs. NJ's 900 per 1MM. FL looks to be peaking at about half of NJ's peak rate, TX is peaking at about 45% of NJ's peak rate, and CA is peaking at about 25-30% of NJ's peak (although still a little early to call these peaks). It's not surprising that CA's case and hospitalization numbers (and likely deaths) are not as bad as the other three states in this comparison, as CA reopened later and after having achieved better reopening metrics, plus CA made masking mandatory on 6/18, just as cases were starting to rise significantly, while the other three states didn't start issuing mask requirements until later and they're not nearly as strong as California's.
Details - Deaths
With respect to deaths, on a national level, they've more than doubled from the low in early July (500-550/day), as they're now up around 1150/day on a 7-day moving average (with the 600 extra TX deaths factored in), which is about 50% of the death rate at its peak in April (which was more like a 3-week plateau). Note that the 4 states (FL/TX/CA/AZ) I've been discussing account for about half of that death toll per day, which also means that there are many other states with less people, many of which are also spiking in cases, hospitalizations and deaths. We still don't know where death peaks for these states will end up (or total deaths, since that will also depend on whether a peak is sharp or a plateau and long decline, like NJ had), but my guesstimate has been 1/3-2/3 of the peaks of NJ, partly due to the younger age of those infected (as above) and partly due to improved pharmaceutical treatments (such as remdesivir, dexamethasone, tocilimuzab and convalescent plasma) and improved medical procedures.
With regard to specific states, AZ appears to have peaked at almost 40% of NJ's peak of about 31/1MM (I think, although they're fluctuations are very large, i.e., some are at 60% of NJ's peak, so need to keep an eye on that to be sure they've peaked), which aligns well with my 33-66% guesstimate. FL is now at 20-25% of NJ's peak and still climbing, so it's unclear where they'll end up (especially if they have any large TX-style "adjustments" - today's all-time high peak was at 30% of NJ's peak).
As discussed in the summary, TX had a major "adjustment" made to their death count with ~600 deaths added (all deaths were on death certificates - this looks to be an accounting issue), which the Covidtracking incorporated into their TX death graphic all on today, jacking their 7-day avg up from about 170 to 250 per day (which makes sense as Worldometers is still at about 170/day, as they haven't added the 600 deaths in yet). This brings TX up to about 30% of NJ's peak and TX rate is still climbing, so it seems likely that FL and CA will reach at least 1/3 of NJ's peak level and maybe more. However, CA is only at 10% of NJ's peak death rate per capita and likely won't reach more than 15% of the NJ peak given the lower hospitalization rates (as expected).
Keep in mind that all of these are educated guesses and a big wild card is assuming cases don't go way up amongst the elderly from here on out - they already are increasing in FL and if that continues and also occurs in the other states, these states could easily reach or exceed the upper end of my estimated range of 2/3 the level of NJ's deaths. Hope people find these to be informative - please let me know if any obvious errors (hard to keep all the #'s straight, lol).
https://covidtracking.com/data#chart-annotations
If beaches were a part of the spread, then we would have major problems in Jersey as the beaches have been packed for 2 straight months due to the great beach weather all summer. That's my theory at least. I can see beach lifestyle, as opposed to just simply going to the beach, as being cause of a spread as these lifeguards keep having outbreaks in several towns. They are all still socializing it seems. Unless there is some magical 20% number that this disease starts to sputter out at, which some have speculated but many have disputed. It's somewhat based in logic since we really aren't truly close to locked down at all anymore and our numbers have stayed low of late, thankfully.
My girlfriends grandfather, a D-Day vet in the 101st Airborne, is still going strong, and turns 98 next week. He wears a mask for his "workout" at physical therapy twice a week. "It doesn't bother me", was his quote. Minor sacrifice without complaint for the common good.
1. I said strategy, not execution of specific items like the handling of nursing homes.
2. I have said multiple times the the handling of our elderly was poor.
3. I live in PA, so I have no skin in the game on what NJ does, other than how that impacts RU
4. This entire conversation has told us alot more about you than it has about me.
Good points on the Rt declines in FL/TX/GA/AZ. Also, AZ cases are down and FL/TX look to be starting to decline, but GA is still increasing or at best plateauing and 29 states, mostly in the S/W, but not all, are still increasing in cases and most states still have Rt > 1, meaning cases are likely growing.
The "dark matter" theory is interesting, but it does not quite make sense when fairly large populations (like whole sections of NYC/London/Bergamo are showing 40-65% infected, via antibody testing, and with infection fatality ratios in the 0.5-1.0% range, which, in theory, should be significantly reduced if most of those 40-65% infected were not impacted significantly. I don't think there's "proof" either way right now, which is why I think we need to continue trying to greatly reduce transmissions until we have a cure/vaccine.
https://rt.live/
Thanks - I'm trying to take @Richard Schnyderite's advice to minimize the bickering and stick more to info, science, and data.
A congressman tested positive in a pre-screen test before a scheduled flight with POTUS. The congressman has not been wearing a mask around the Capitol. I find the reasoning especially curious;
“Gohmert was scheduled to fly to Texas on Wednesday morning with President Donald Trump and tested positive in a pre-screen at the White House. The eighth-term [redacting party affiliation] told CNN last month that he was not wearing a mask because he was being tested regularly for the coronavirus..."If I get it," he told CNN in June, "you'll never see me without a mask."
1) Testing doesn’t do much good once you already have it; sure you can then remove yourself from society, but of course better for yourself and others if you take measures to avoid getting the virus altogether.
2) There’s some amount of time between tests in which you can infect others; without a mask you’re more likely to do so. If he’s true to his word, he will now wear one, but he may have infected one or more contacts prior to coming up positive.
This line of thinking just needs to go, there’s no logic to it...smells of senseless provocation.
“Gohmert was scheduled to fly to Texas on Wednesday morning with President Donald Trump and tested positive in a pre-screen at the White House. The eighth-term [redacting party affiliation] told CNN last month that he was not wearing a mask because he was being tested regularly for the coronavirus..."If I get it," he told CNN in June, "you'll never see me without a mask."
1) Testing doesn’t do much good once you already have it; sure you can then remove yourself from society, but of course better for yourself and others if you take measures to avoid getting the virus altogether.
2) There’s some amount of time between tests in which you can infect others; without a mask you’re more likely to do so. If he’s true to his word, he will now wear one, but he may have infected one or more contacts prior to coming up positive.
This line of thinking just needs to go, there’s no logic to it...smells of senseless provocation.
All I can say is I appreciate the information on the trials and the updates . I’m certain some uplifting news for a change is a welcome respite from what you and others have experienced these past 5 months. We need to remember all of us can be impacted by this virus .
Well we did just have 20 lifeguards who became infected. Now we don’t really know...we’re they infected only at the gathering or were some asymptomatic while on duty. That’s all I’ll say... if we distance properly and wear a mask when around others ... and wash those hands ... that’s all you can do ...
He says he caught it because he wore a mask recently.
Gohmert is the dumbest U.S. representative I've ever seen.
I think hrdcorhays is onto something with the "beach life" vs sitting on beach opinion. On your example of the 20 lifeguards, isn't the theory they were infected in some non-lifeguard job related gathering/party vs while on-the-job? This also aligns with the experiences of my family(we have house in Margate City). On the beach, for the most part, people are staying distanced from one another, but it is obvious that there are a lot of social gatherings happening at the houses.
People head to the shore to have a good time and get away from it all for a while, and that makes it easy to lapse on social distancing/masks/etc. Not suggesting we close down the shore towns, but we need to keep people on their toes and reminded of the appropriate behavior to avoid spikes and then roll-backs of activities.
I live in the midwest, this is incorrect. Masks here in Illinois are mandatory if you can social distance. In door dining is allowed with a % of capacity I believe. Everywhere I go people have masks on if other people are around.
and half the population will not have the vaccine which means all the stuff we are doing now will be required until more get the vaccines, you actually think they are going to lift restrictions that quick...and vaccines are never 100% ask the flu
Is it safe to assume our top infectious disease scientist Anthony Fauci didn't get the Red Dawn email?
SIAP without rehashing the complete timeline of mistakes the Fauc has made, some of the h̶i̶g̶h̶ lowlights include: 1) in mid Feb telling the public i) the flu was a bigger risk to us than chicomvirus, ii) masks are "absolutely not" necessary, and (iii) "there is no circulating sustained transmission of coronavirus in the United States" and the cases present were contained; followed by 2) telling the public in early March it was OK to go on a cruise ship if you're healthy and young; and 3) in mid April (!!!) endorsing Tinder hookups if you're willing to take the risk. LOL--excellent advice from the top infectious disease scientist in the U.S. No wonder the young crazies were partying into April in NYC and have let loose as states tried to re-open in recent months.
I know it kills you that Fauci, even with his screwups, is more respected by the American people for his knowledge that our President, who just started wearing a mask in public.
Yes sir, can we Illinoisans and New Jerseyans commiserate about our high property taxes? Or will we get reported for political comments?
I don’t want to make this about political party or politics — strictly based on masks, their utility, and the pushback against them; having said that, apparently an aide to the congressman sent a note to the Politico reporter who broke the story, that the office was made to be fully staffed and that masks were discouraged. All this in an effort to show the country leadership.
Even masks skeptics on this board seem to promote wearing them when inside with others.
No need to share too much detailed information here, I just need to know if you’re the RU fan I’ve bumped into a couple of times getting morning coffee at the McDonalds on Adams and Wells.
If so, we’ll do a coffee toast to surviving this thing whenever we return to offices.
Is there any concern from a medical perspective on how fast this is being developed?
I'll be getting it anyway but wondering.
When was the last time a vaccine was needed to be developed this quickly?
Was he wearing the mask of someone who had Covid? Because that would make sense.
No clue. He gave an interview and said I have been wearing a mask a lot the last few days. If I wasn't wearing a mask I bet I wouldn't have got it. So he blamed the mask as the reason he caught it.
That’s what I said about that particular spread from the lifeguards but who , what and where did they also come in contact with? My biggest laugh was this guy Yakiev Weis , from Brooklyn NY , renting this large home to 2 Newark divas who in turn invited another 696 people . Yet the guy with the gym gets arrested... no offense but that is not right in any world. Those girls and the neighbor kid who invited more should be heavily fined and arrested like the gym owner... maybe in another life...
I can tell you unequivocally in Wyoming , South Dakota , Nebraska , Iowa , very little to none... Illinois yes... an that comes from my people on the ground...lol
Well most skeptics on this board live here in the NE. While some of these states that have recently had big spikes have come around a bit, I think there is still a much stronger resentment of mask wearing.
And until those states fully get on board they will continue to have serious issues.
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