COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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Norway 255 deaths.
Sweden over 5000.
Norway 5m people
Sweden 10m.
Looks like Norway > Sweden
Sweden over 5000.
Norway 5m people
Sweden 10m.
Looks like Norway > Sweden
Waiting for the responses as to how we can't compare Sweden and Norway as countries ...from the same people who brought us comparing raw numbers between US and Sweden.
Besides the obvious "no," you would have lived in extreme fear and solitude if we did that. Don't pretend to be one of the flu bros now.
Yup. We talked about it. Now all of a sudden its recommended. Next it will ear plugs. Then gloves then bubble helmets. You laugh but you just wait.
Nurses are being layed off in some hospitals due to lack of patients.
Absolutely, which is why full disclosure of clinical trial results for safety and efficacy is paramount, so formal peer review by experts can quickly take place. The fastest that a novel vaccine (one for a pathogen that has never had a vaccine before) has been developed and approved in is 4 years, so doing this in less than 1 year is mind bogglingly fast. Earlier today, I said that if we have a safe, reasonably effective vaccine by Feb/March that would be extraordinary, but if we get one before the end of the year it might go down as the greatest scientific accomplishment in history.
If interested, the story behind the "record" 4-year timeline to develop the mumps vaccine is fascinating. Dr. Maurice Hilleman, while he was working at Merck in the early 1960s, noticed his 5-year old daughter had come down with mumps and he cultured a throat swab from her and that was the source of the mumps vaccine that he eventually developed, using a live, attenuated (weakened by passing through chicken embryos) mumps virus. The strain from his daughter is still in use in the MMR (measles/mumps/rubella) vaccine.
Hilleman was a giant in the vaccine field, developing over 40 vaccines in his career and of the 14 vaccines routinely recommended in current vaccine schedules, he developed eight: those for measles, mumps, hepatitis A, hepatitis B, chickenpox, meningitis, pneumonia and Haemophilus influenzae bacteria.
This man needs to get a Nobel Prize, but they're rarely given to non-academics and people doing more "practical" medical applications. But Dr. Gallo, the co-discoverer of HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, said of Hilleman, "If I had to name a person who has done more for the benefit of human health, with less recognition than anyone else, it would be Maurice Hilleman. Maurice should be recognized as the most successful vaccinologist in history."
https://www.history.com/news/mumps-vaccine-world-war-ii
Great job by Sweden! Stayed open, were responsible, kept kids in school, and preserved their economy.
They did not preserve their economy. No country has.
Looks like it's time for my monthly update to how badly Sweden has done vs. other similarly situated countries in Europe (post below). I updated the table from early July, below, which is all from Worldometers. Who would pick Sweden's results over Norway and Finland? Thought so. All three have similar population densities and cultures, yet Sweden has about 10X as many deaths per capita. Sweden even did much worse with regard to deaths per 1MM (because they did much worse with interventions to prevent cases, which prevent deaths) than more densely populated Denmark just to its south and even much larger and more densely populated Germany.
Sweden's deaths per capita are right in range with the worst European countries, like the UK, Spain, and Italy, which are far more densely populated. In addition, it's well known that the Swedes were very embarrassed when the other Nordic countries allowed travel among themselves, but not with Sweden. Even the architect of their failed response has acknowledged mistakes:
Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, agreed with the interviewer on Sveriges Radio that too many people had died in the country. “If we would encounter the same disease, with exactly what we know about it today, I think we would land midway between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did,” said Mr Tegnell in the interview broadcast on Wednesday morning.
Mr Tegnell’s admission is striking as for months he has criticised other countries’ lockdowns and insisted that Sweden’s approach was more sustainable despite heavy international scrutiny of its stubbornly high death toll.
https://www.ft.com/content/dae6d006-9adc-46d5-9b4e-79a7841022e8
Country......Cases/1MM.......Deaths/1MM........Tests/1MM.....Density (per sq mi)
Sweden...........7896.....................567.....................80K.....................56
Finland............1339......................59............. .........63K....................43
Norway............1691......................47.......................80K....................41
Denmark.........2353......................106....................257K..................345
Germany.........2492......................110.....................95K...................576
Going in the right direction!Check it out:
Great trend! And their economy only declined by 5%.
Sad that Sweden is probably going to end up doing better than us. But no real surprise given they social distanced better than us.
The data says they have 5th most deaths per capita in the world of country's with more than 100,000 people in them.
How do they compare regarding deaths over the month of July? Im not trying to stir the pot, just not plugged into detailed numbers as others here. All i can find are cumulative totals for deaths.
The perception is reality. The public is safer when people wear masks. That's not debatable. On the second point, they dont have to cite big crowds in southern states. There are enough instances around here where the public is not wearing a mask and crowding into spaces with no regard for distancing...And that's with restrictions in place.
I covered this a week or so ago. The death rates were high in the nursing homes and that is unfortunate. With jam packed hospitals here in NJ, tough decisions needed to be made to provide care as best they could. I realize this is a very touchy subject for many and I'm not trying to be crass when I say this, but given the onslaught of patients and many hospitals at max capacity in the north, what do you think would have been a better alternative for the elderly population?
we will catch up eventually most likely, but as of now if Sweden has 0 more deaths from Corona we still need 37,230 more deaths to tie them per capita.
Check it out:
Great trend! And their economy only declined by 5%.
lol I read that article the other day, you conveniently left out the part that their economy is declining at about the same rate as neighboring countries
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53498133
I just read your first line and laughed. I agree that wearing masks is better than nothing but people up close with masks if far and away less safer then social distancing. That is why it is not really debatable.
The difference in the NE is we have different liquor laws than the south. 40 NY bars have lost there licence to do business. 20 in NYC. Most will lose them permanently.. You can not shut down an entire industry because of a big crowd a 1000 miles away from here. There is zero logic for it. The perception is not reality at all. Too many Lemmings on here. If you are afraid stay home under lockdown and let smart people live their lives safely. We are 4 months into this. The first annoucement was 14 days. Back in March! Stay at home at stop complaining. And for gods sake stop making excuses for the elderly dying. Do you think for a second that the families buy into your complete nonsense.
BTW no hospital was jammed packed. A complete lie. In fact most have been empty and are facing a financial crises to survive.
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A gas mask would probably work better. As someone who wears glasses or sunglasses much of the time, the fogging issue is real.
Didn't the very GOP lt gov of Texas say that the elderly should volunteer to die to save the economy? Let's not pretend that the disregard for the elderly by our political leaders was only from one side.
Not sure what their policy was, but I remember reading they handled the nursing home situation very poorly. Half their deaths came from nursing homes. And if I recall correctly, they botched how they treated those patients, using a bad care strategy that ended up increasing mortality.
Near empty hospitals sent marginally sick infectious elderly back to the nursing homes to infect everyone else. Brillant strategy
No Sweden had diffeent approach. Much better than the US but far from equal to neighboring countries.
Not sure they had a better strategy. They pretty much kept them in the nursing homes and brought them behind the shed by not giving oxygen.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836
Ok just so we can move past this cyclical bull shit. Going to sum this up so it can be copied and pasted later when this convo resurfaces in a week.
One of Proud NJ, T2K and their assorted troll companions
"Sweden is doing great, we should be like them (insert graphs of death trending downward) and they did it without a lockdown"
Numbers response
"They are not doing well, here is data to show that compared to comparable countries they are doing far, far worse"
Trolls
option a- Something about LTC facilities
option b- It's unfair to compare Sweden to x country because of their population is unlike any others.
rinse and repeat.
One of Proud NJ, T2K and their assorted troll companions
"Sweden is doing great, we should be like them (insert graphs of death trending downward) and they did it without a lockdown"
Numbers response
"They are not doing well, here is data to show that compared to comparable countries they are doing far, far worse"
Trolls
option a- Something about LTC facilities
option b- It's unfair to compare Sweden to x country because of their population is unlike any others.
rinse and repeat.
You still pay attention to anything the WHO says?
Who is making an excuse? And what nonsense are you referring to? You really dont understand what was happening inside of hospitals around north NJ, do you? No hospital was jammed packed? That statement right there proves you have no idea. You realize a major NNJ hospital filled up and actually created a unit in their cafeteria to increase their bed capacity? Another 600+ bed hospital ..full..How do I know? I work there and was in on the daily census briefings. First hand reports from other colleagues in 3 more big NNJ hospitals...full. Yeah, such complete lies. I won't even ask you the question again as it's not worth my time. You seem like a bitter person who can't have an adult discussion without trying to inject a bitter rebuttal.
Don't bother arguing with him, he's convinced he knows everything, yet never provides data for any of it.
Below is the Worldometers detailed graphic of US deaths, with today's total of 451 being well below the last 5 days, which had averaged over 1000 - the weekend dips have been very consistent with the last 3 Sundays having 451, 412, and 381 deaths, after a fair amount more the previous several days. If the pattern continues, tomorrow will also be relatively low and numbers will jump up again on Tuesday and will likely be higher this week than last week, as deaths very likely haven't peaked yet from this 2nd wave, given the lag from cases.
Cases were also well down at 56K, the lowest since 7/7 - not clear if this is the start of a decline after cases had largely plateaued the past week or so. Below the Worldometers death chart are the COVID Tracking charts of US tests, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, all on 7-day moving averages. Hard to make any meaningful observations on today's stats on a state level, given the large dip, although any dip is good to see. It's why I originally was only going to do detailed state analyses once a week or so (it's been on Tuesday nights the past 3 weeks).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
https://covidtracking.com/data#chart-annotations
Back to the national picture (no time for those detailed posts with everything in them more than weekly).
Below is the Worldometers detailed graphic of US deaths and the COVID Tracking charts of US tests, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, all on 7-day moving averages. Today's WM total of 1425 is the highest total since 1567 on 5/27.
Factoring in the usual weekend dip (461 on Sunday and 596 on Monday, totaling 1057; the previous Sun/Mon was 957 and 2 weeks before was 860) the 7-day moving average is up to 1022 on Worldometers and 1058 on Covidtracking, meaning we're at about half the peak death rate seen in wave 1 (around 2000-2200/day for about 3 weeks). Clearly, deaths are still rising, nationally, although not as fast as in the first wave - I wouldn't expect them to go above 1300-1400 per day.
Cases were also well down at 56K on Sunday, but they were back up to 66K today, such that the 7-day average looks like a plateau over the past two weeks in the 65-67K range. Cases may start to decline soon, though, if the Rt data showing decreased transmission rates (to below 1.0) in FL/TX/CA, the three most populous states, are correct.
With regard to states, the big news was TX, FL, and CA all setting new high death records and it's quite likely they'll be sustaining death rates this high for awhile, although the FL/TX peaks are still only about 40% of the peak rates seen in NJ. My guess has been these states would peak around 33-66% of NJ's peak, given younger infection profile and improved treatments/procedures and CA would only peak at ~15% of NJ's rate, given the improvements and better metrics at reopening and stronger mask requirements. TX is a bit of an odd case, as COVID Tracking added the 600 additional deaths now being reported (accounting improvements in TX) all in one day, whereas Worldometers seems to have spread those out, since they both have similar overall totals Can make data analysis challenging.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
https://covidtracking.com/data#chart-annotations
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