Now do NY and NJ horrific results while you blast Fla and Tx everyday
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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Now do NY and NJ horrific results while you blast Fla and Tx everyday
Just listen to the guy in charge of Sweden's response in my post above explain how Sweden should not be compared to those around them. No need to get your info from people here or biased news reports. You can get his thoughts direct from him and draw your own conclusions.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ventions-and-more.198855/page-88#post-4647891
BTW, he does admit they did a poor job at first protecting those in LTCs kind of like NY/NJ. Those deaths in Sweden, like NJ, hugely inflate the death toll.
For all those claiming the sudden drop off in cases in Sweden is due to behavior, just listen to the guy in charge say nothing is different today than 6 weeks ago and why he thinks cases have drastically fallen off. BTW, they also do not require masks indoors or on public transportation.
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And approx 1/4 of them (34K) have occurred in just two states (NJ/NY) that combined, only represent 9% of the total population of the USA
shh these people keeping talking about red state governors while not actually looking at the death rates which implicate all the big blue states
+1
There is plenty of data that showing the virus running its course in 6-8 weeks (regardless of what is done or not done in response). Just seems to be the nature of corona.
Hello everyone, California is still part of the country, right? :)
I don’t think anyone is debating that. We discussed NY/NJ to death when things were bad here. It’s bizarre that people get defensive over discussing current events and data. Comments like these really add no value and just turn into the same old arguments.
Persistent heterogeneity not short-term overdispersion determines herd immunity to COVID-19
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.26.20162420v1.full.pdf
Abstract:
It has become increasingly clear that the COVID-19 epidemic is characterized by overdispersion whereby the majority of the transmission is driven by a minority of infected individuals. Such a strong departure from the homogeneity assumptions of traditional well-mixed compartment model is usually hypothesized to be the result of shortterm super-spreader events, such as individual’s extreme rate of virus shedding at the peak of infectivity while attending a large gathering without appropriate mitigation. However, heterogeneity can also arise through long-term, or persistent variations in individual susceptibility or infectivity. Here, we show how to incorporate persistent heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models, and derive a non-linear dependence of the effective reproduction number Re on the susceptible population fraction S. Persistent heterogeneity has three important consequences compared to the effects of overdispersion: (1) It results in a major modification of the early epidemic dynamics; (2) It significantly suppresses the herd immunity threshold; (3) It significantly reduces the final size of the epidemic. We estimate social and biological contributions to persistent heterogeneity using data on real-life face-to-face contact networks and age variation of the incidence rate during the COVID-19 epidemic, and show that empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in New York City (NYC) and Chicago and all 50 US states provide a consistent characterization of the level of persistent heterogeneity. Our estimates suggest that the hardest-hit areas, such as NYC, are close to the persistent heterogeneity herd immunity threshold following the first wave of the epidemic, thereby limiting the spread of infection to other regions during a potential second wave of the epidemic. Our work implies that general considerations of persistent heterogeneity in addition to overdispersion act to limit the scale of pandemics.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.26.20162420v1.full.pdf
Abstract:
It has become increasingly clear that the COVID-19 epidemic is characterized by overdispersion whereby the majority of the transmission is driven by a minority of infected individuals. Such a strong departure from the homogeneity assumptions of traditional well-mixed compartment model is usually hypothesized to be the result of shortterm super-spreader events, such as individual’s extreme rate of virus shedding at the peak of infectivity while attending a large gathering without appropriate mitigation. However, heterogeneity can also arise through long-term, or persistent variations in individual susceptibility or infectivity. Here, we show how to incorporate persistent heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models, and derive a non-linear dependence of the effective reproduction number Re on the susceptible population fraction S. Persistent heterogeneity has three important consequences compared to the effects of overdispersion: (1) It results in a major modification of the early epidemic dynamics; (2) It significantly suppresses the herd immunity threshold; (3) It significantly reduces the final size of the epidemic. We estimate social and biological contributions to persistent heterogeneity using data on real-life face-to-face contact networks and age variation of the incidence rate during the COVID-19 epidemic, and show that empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in New York City (NYC) and Chicago and all 50 US states provide a consistent characterization of the level of persistent heterogeneity. Our estimates suggest that the hardest-hit areas, such as NYC, are close to the persistent heterogeneity herd immunity threshold following the first wave of the epidemic, thereby limiting the spread of infection to other regions during a potential second wave of the epidemic. Our work implies that general considerations of persistent heterogeneity in addition to overdispersion act to limit the scale of pandemics.
Someone simply posting the daily death count provides NO value. We know people are dying. And the number is going to rise and not go down. The number is plastered on every CNN outlet 24/7 if you want to see it.
Someone’s gonna need to simplify for us dummies.
Im pretty sure you were one of those lamenting that its the red states being the reason we wont have college sports
Q2 GDP plunge is expected. The more concerning virus-economy metric out today is jobless claims: up for a second straight week after sharp declines for 15 weeks dating back to the huge spike at the beginning of this crisis.
And people just yesterday on this thread said NJ has done a good job. Go figure.
Two completely different scenarios, but either way, there has been plenty of discussion on NJ/NY 's numbers on these boards. This virus was dropped into the lap of the tri-state area and the virus was circulating unknowingly in the densest area of the country. FL, TX, AZ, etc. had the benefit to digest what was happening here and make their own decisions based on that information. Not only were their responses inadequate in many people's eyes, but they lifted their restrictions way too early. Their lower population densities are helping them, but they took a chance and are paying the price. Meanwhile, NJ/NY/CT reversed a pretty bad situation in each of their respective states.
I didn’t say anything about hospitals you crazy person. You seem angry and bitter and you call me bitter and misquote me or make other attacks I am not bitter about anything just pointing out nonsensical comments. SAD!!
NYC and other hard hit areas have reached or are close to reaching herd immunity.
When the US govt stops/slows pumping trillions in to the economy it is going to be worse than folks comprehend.
"Wages and salaries fell sharply in April, but that was more than offset by the $1,200 relief payments that the government sent to most adults and by supplemental unemployment benefits of $600 per week.
Those government payments helped prevent an even steeper drop in consumer spending — the lifeblood of the U.S. economy — and allowed struggling families to buy groceries and pay rent."
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...witter.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social
"Wages and salaries fell sharply in April, but that was more than offset by the $1,200 relief payments that the government sent to most adults and by supplemental unemployment benefits of $600 per week.
Those government payments helped prevent an even steeper drop in consumer spending — the lifeblood of the U.S. economy — and allowed struggling families to buy groceries and pay rent."
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...witter.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social
LOL!! Chill out man...do you still have sleepy eyes? Go back and look at my response. The only thing I addressed to you was if you still pay any attention to what the WHO says. The rest was CLEARLY pinned to someone else who seems to enjoy stirring the pot. You just flew off the handle for nothing at all. Your response to me was completely off base. Have a great rest of the day.
I believe between NY and NJ the death count is closer to 48-49 k... or did some of these listed deaths miraculously resurrect in the past several days?
Excuses excuses. NJ did a horrible job protecting the elderly. Almost criminal. Had nothing to do with density.
Not sure if that’s me, I really don’t care about red vs blue. Basically all the states outside of the NE are a good reason why we might not have college football though. Not sure how any of this is relevant though.
Thanks. I could not agree more. Let's just respect each others opinion and place our votes in less than 100 days.
The daily numbers and trends is one of the only things we can talk about. Not saying it’s crazy valuable since anyone can look elsewhere, but we’ve been doing this since day one. Who cares?
Lol I have that person on ignore and didn’t see you quoting him so it just looked like you were responding solely to me. And no I don’t pay attention to the WHO or the CDC for that matter. Have a wonderful day yourself.
They obviously aren’t going to start until the economy is opened again. Which is really what is obviously needed.When the US govt stops/slows pumping trillions in to the economy it is going to be worse than folks comprehend.
"Wages and salaries fell sharply in April, but that was more than offset by the $1,200 relief payments that the government sent to most adults and by supplemental unemployment benefits of $600 per week.
Those government payments helped prevent an even steeper drop in consumer spending — the lifeblood of the U.S. economy — and allowed struggling families to buy groceries and pay rent."
https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...witter.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social
I think that was an excellent video, very fair by both the interviewer and interviewee, but he definitely said the people have changed behavior voluntarily, in some ways in a more stringent manner then some other countries mandated behavior changes. It also sounds like they have limited travel?
And if my neighboring countries had 1/10th the mortality rate I'd look for reasons to not be compared to them as well, but he is right that it should not be compared at the present moment, if Finland spikes in upcoming months while Sweden stays low then things begin to look a lot differently
He also had a very @WhiteBus view on masks late in the video.
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Herman Cain passed away after a month-long battle with COVID
Other grim news: Florida reported a new high for daily deaths in the State, 252. Rolling 7 at new high of 1,065.
Arizona with a new high of 172; reversed its declining rolling totals and seven day average.
I think the big picture of new cases is trending in the right direction in both places, just a matter of counting the cost of the spike that occurred (and the ongoing 9-10k new cases reported daily in FL)
Arizona with a new high of 172; reversed its declining rolling totals and seven day average.
I think the big picture of new cases is trending in the right direction in both places, just a matter of counting the cost of the spike that occurred (and the ongoing 9-10k new cases reported daily in FL)
And a several year battle with colon cancer.
If we go by the 3 week lag idea, and that has been pretty accurate thus far, then FL's death's should peak next week, but will likely stay at or above the current level for at least another 3 weeks. Question moving fwd is how quickly can they get their case levels down. Also interesting to see if they can eliminate the lingering deaths that we have seen in the NE states.
AZ's big number today, combined with recent low #'s is certainly tied to a back log in reporting. Three week lag put's them at their peak fatalities right now.
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Looks like Europe is losing containment. Spain getting hit again, many European countries trending upwards.
One thing I noticed is that we're still in wave 1 according to most epidemiologists. They keep saying "we need to prepare for wave 2". What the heck is wave 2 (COVID-20?) going to look like?
One thing I noticed is that we're still in wave 1 according to most epidemiologists. They keep saying "we need to prepare for wave 2". What the heck is wave 2 (COVID-20?) going to look like?
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