COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[RU848789]

Yeah, you know, look. It's pretty clear you have a political bias. That's OK, most of us do and I celebrate the fact that we can all express our thoughts without fear of negative repercussions, unlike Dr. Li in China. However, you know damn well, having spent your career in the business, that it's not the government's job in this country to develop the testing methods or distribute the tests and so forth. We rely on private industry to do that. In that regard, the government has done everything they can to expedite the process. At the end of the day, would you rather have the inefficient process we have or politicians making political decisions, like they did in China, jailing Dr Li and many others?

Huh? There's no political bias in saying the CDC and USA have badly bungled testing. CDC used to be the ones who came up with tests for the world given their scientific prowess, but they dropped the ball completely here. And when they did, even in early Feb when they were having major issues with their tests, they could've simply adopted the German or SK tests, but did not for reasons we'll likely never know. All that needed to change was making a simple decision to value testing over having an in-house test, so no, the government didn't do anywhere near everything they could to fix the problem.

That has nothing to do with private industry in any way. Massive failure. And, IMO, just like in sports, when the star player (CDC) screws up, the manager (HHS Secy) and Owner (POTUS) also share responsibility for not stepping in and getting the problem fixed. That's not political bias - it's management 101. And for the record, I've been very complimentary of the Administration's early position to ban travel from China, which gave us probably a month or more "cushion" in the virus establishing a toehold in the US and that's not what a partisan would do. I also have no clue what your point is on China and Dr. Li - we can respect people and have good decision-making at the same time.

 

[rutgersguy1]

From CNN:


The maker of a critical tool required to run the coronavirus test kit used in US public health labs is facing a surge in demand that is challenging its capacity to deliver the product, according to the company.

Qiagen, whose tool helps extract viral genetic information from patient samples, said in a tweet Tuesday that it has established a “task force” to “evaluate incoming orders in this period of extraordinary demand.”

A shortage of its products could threaten to further delay coronavirus testing across the country, because Qiagen’s tools are required to run -- but not included in -- the coronavirus test kit distributed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

On Monday, the company said it had “not seen any near-term impacts from the coronavirus outbreak on supplies of materials and components,” but it said that increasing demand “may lead to backorders with delayed delivery or reduced allocation of affected product.”

The tool is a necessary step in testing for the novel coronavirus; it removes RNA, the genetic code of the virus, from a patient’s throat swab or cough sample. That RNA, extracted from a patient specimen, is then compared against snippets of the virus itself, determining whether a patient has been infected with the virus.

CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield acknowledged the potential shortage of the tool on Tuesday in an interview with Politico.

“The availability of those reagents is obviously being looked at,” Redfield said, referring to ingredients used in the tool. “I’m confident of the actual test that we have, but as people begin to operationalize the test, they realize there’s other things they need to do the test.”
The US Food and Drug Administration, which oversees laboratory tests in the US, said that a similar tool developed by another company, Roche, could be used in its place. But that could require labs to acquire auxiliary equipment for Roche’s platform and retrain staff who run the tests – leading to further delays.

 

[LC-88]

And those reagents probably come from China.

 

[ashokan]

At Harvard forum, three who know warn of ‘most daunting virus’ in half a century

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/07/harvard-forum-experts-warn-most-daunting-virus-in-50-years/

 

[albanyknight]

Please folks, remain vigilant.

 

[rurichdog]

From CNN:


The maker of a critical tool required to run the coronavirus test kit used in US public health labs is facing a surge in demand that is challenging its capacity to deliver the product, according to the company.

Qiagen, whose tool helps extract viral genetic information from patient samples, said in a tweet Tuesday that it has established a “task force” to “evaluate incoming orders in this period of extraordinary demand.”

A shortage of its products could threaten to further delay coronavirus testing across the country, because Qiagen’s tools are required to run -- but not included in -- the coronavirus test kit distributed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

On Monday, the company said it had “not seen any near-term impacts from the coronavirus outbreak on supplies of materials and components,” but it said that increasing demand “may lead to backorders with delayed delivery or reduced allocation of affected product.”

The tool is a necessary step in testing for the novel coronavirus; it removes RNA, the genetic code of the virus, from a patient’s throat swab or cough sample. That RNA, extracted from a patient specimen, is then compared against snippets of the virus itself, determining whether a patient has been infected with the virus.

CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield acknowledged the potential shortage of the tool on Tuesday in an interview with Politico.

“The availability of those reagents is obviously being looked at,” Redfield said, referring to ingredients used in the tool. “I’m confident of the actual test that we have, but as people begin to operationalize the test, they realize there’s other things they need to do the test.”
The US Food and Drug Administration, which oversees laboratory tests in the US, said that a similar tool developed by another company, Roche, could be used in its place. But that could require labs to acquire auxiliary equipment for Roche’s platform and retrain staff who run the tests – leading to further delays.

"Just in time" logistics based around a singular overseas vendor strikes again.

 

[JayRU09]

Liberal nonsense worried about the privatized US Healthcare system. How is that socialist Italy system working for ya?

You realize that our healthcare system is not prepared at all for a pandemic and that even before this we were at nearly full capacity right?

Now is not the time to make some grand political statement over healthcare systems when we probably are the least prepared first world nation for such an event.

 

[JayRU09]

IMHO, the ONLY way to truly fight this is with our own immune system. This means the faster you expose as many people to it as possible, the faster our own immune system will develop a resistance to it.

This is horrifically stupid, dangerous, and on a board full of stupid things being said every day, this is the most stupid.

 

[JayRU09]

You can call it stupid but it is what will happen. No amount of doom and gloom will change this eventuality.

Just like the flu, it will be the norm in our society. People will develop immunity to it.

No, it's not like the flu. The WHO is trying to hammer this point home. We can stop this if we can all agree to take action.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-coronavirus-different-than-influenza-can-be-contained/

 

[JayRU09]

Saying that we are the LEAST prepared nation is not political? Our healthcare system IS THE BEST IN THE WORLD.

I mean, it's not, there's like zero data to support ours being THE BEST IN THE WORLD.

We're not prepared for this at all. We do not even have enough testing kits to test for this properly. We can see on the low end of this outbreak needing 200,000 ICU beds.

We have 45,000.

We need to act rationally and decisively. Saying to just let everyone get infected is one of the worst things anyone could say.

 

[RU848789]

I've posted a couple of times wondering why Germany's fatality rate has been so low (3 of 1655 confirmed cases, about 0.2%) and hadn't found anything. Finally, though, a number of articles have been published on this in the last day or so. Not surprisingly, many experts are giving credit to Germany's aggressive testing approach (see link), which is not surprising since the Germans were the ones who developed the WHO-approved test in late January that much of the world uses (but not the US). Also, it should be noted that Germany is the oldest country in Europe (older even than Italy), so high fatality rates, like Italy has seen (6%) are not necessarily a given, due to an aging population. Having said that, though, it's still too early in the evolution of this situation to declare "victory" in Germany, but it's definitely worth paying attention to.

https://www.nytimes.com/.../ap-eu-virus-outbreak-germany...

Aggressive testing to find where outbreaks are occurring early on, allows for slowing transmission rates (much easier when one knows who some of the healthy, but infected or mildly symptomatic carriers are) and allows earlier treatment of anyone with symptoms, which can help prevent more severe outcomes. This is also consistent with how South Korea has been more successful than almost anyone else in curbing new cases and having a low fatality rate (0.7%), as per many of my earlier posts on SK being the "model" for testing and response.

And SK is much further along than Germany in this outbreak, having recently seen many less new cases per day than they had been seeing. In fact, a few days ago, SK, Italy and Iran all had about 7000 infections, but now SK has 7800, Iran has over 9000, and Italy has over 10,000, illustrating how SK's new infections are decelerating - they've been reporting less than 250 new cases per day for several days vs. 500+ new cases per day for several days before that. And yet, the US is not following that path to date, given our testing debacle, which will likely be the biggest reason we end up more like Italy than Germany/SK (at least in densely populated areas).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

 

[JayRU09]

This guy says it can be contained. How? It is highly contagious and has an incubation period longer than the Flu. Yeah, technically speaking it is not like the Flu. But it has all the characteristics of what makes the Flu unstoppable.

Who to trust, RU2055 who thinks everyone should just get it or the WHO and health professionals who are saying we are at an unique time in history where we can actually stop this if we put in the effort to stop it from spreading.

Imagine having a shot at stopping the flu and going 'meh that's too much work and it would require the government doing things and when the government does things that's socialism and that's bad'.

And holy **** are you arguing against flu vaccinations? Heading to the ignore list at this rate.

 

[JayRU09]

You're the one arguing that everyone should just get this virus when health professionals the world over are arguing the complete opposite.

Onto the ignore list.

 

[albanyknight]

The United States has the best advanced healthcare system in the world. Meaning advanced technology, state-of-the-art technology and world class facilities for certain diseases such as the Mayo Clinic, Sloan Kettering, Johns Hopkins, Mt. Sinai, Mass General, Dana Farber etc.

The United States is at best average for advocating preventative care and maintaining good health. We are a crisis based system and we are woefully deficient in rural care and because our system is fractured is not the best prepared for something like say a pandemic.

There are a little over 931,000 staffed beds in the US and 799,000 staffed beds in community hospitals for a population of 314,000,000. Now when you consider the average occupancy per hospital at any given time is about 70%, that does not leave a whole lot of available beds and the number of available respirators is even more dire.

The best chance is isolation and prevention and anybody telling you this is no more serious than the flu is whistling past the graveyard.

This has not been verified that the mortality rate in Italy is 8%.

 

[RU848789]

This is an RNA virus, similar to the flu. It is highly contagious and the incubation period is still very much unknown - estimates range from 2 days to 14 days, others have suggested even longer. Therefore, this virus will most definitely spread and eventually touch EVERYONE. It is inevitable. No measure of quarantine will stop the inevitable. I suppose you can argue that it buys us time to find a remedy - i.e. Remdesivir results on April 3. However, I think by slowing down what is inevitable anyway, is causing more harm than good when you balance it with the disruption the overreaction has caused.

IMHO, the harm the overreaction has caused is more damaging ultimately to society than the damage caused by this virus.

I know I know, I don't mean to sound insensitive to those whose lives have been affected by this awful disease. But in the grand scheme of things, how different is this virus really from many others? It kills people with weak immune systems. Ok? And? The mortality rate is very high for old people. Ok? And? Have you seen what chemo does to an 80 year old? There are many other viruses that are just as deadly or even more so. Let's hope these other viruses don't get jealous of the attention COVID-19 has been getting.

IMHO, the ONLY way to truly fight this is with our own immune system. This means the faster you expose as many people to it as possible, the faster our own immune system will develop a resistance to it.

Edit, adding this: The planet hadn't seen SARS or MERS, the previous deadlier (10% mortality rate for SARS and over 30% for MERS) coronaviruses, before either, so novelty doesn't equate to everyone being infected. Transmission rates might, however, as SARS-CoV2 is more transmissible (R0 of 2-3) than influenza (R0 of 1.3), but has a similar transmission rate to SARS (R0 = 3), which was fairly easily contained, although part of that was due to shorter incubation/contagious period,s than CoV2, so it gets complicated (MERS had a low R0 of <1). This is why blanket statements like yours are not always helpful.

While it's possible that it will be impossible to contain, there's at least evidence from China that draconian measures can contain it and from South Korea, that much less draconian efforts might be able to contain it (they're not out of the woods yet). So, giving up on containment seems shortsighted. Also, even if it can't be fully contained, one of the most important things we can do is "flatten the curve" so that we don't get a huge spike in infections and serious complications/deaths all at once, like we're seeing in Italy.

Social distancing and aggressive testing to ID those infected (especially asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic people) so they can self-quarantine can reduce the transmission rate enough to at least make this a long slow peak which our health care system can handle, which is what Merkel just said today about Germany, i.e., she "expects that up to 70% of the German population will likely contract the coronavirus," suggesting that the government’s priority is about “slowing its spread”...so as to "not overburden the health system."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/angela-merkel-most-people-will-get-the-coronavirus.html

I think Merkel is overstating things, as I do think it's possible that through aggressive testing and very proactive social distancing we can maybe lower the transmission rate (the R0 is estimated to be 2-3) low enough to not have everyone infected. I think it's at least worth the effort, especially since there is still some chance this behaves seasonally and transmission rates will go down soon with warmer/more humid weather. All of that combined would, at the very least, buy us more time to develop treatments and prepare strategies for a likely comeback of the virus in the fall.

 

[rutgersguy1]

While it's possible that it will be impossible to contain, there's at least evidence from China that draconian measures can contain it and from South Korea, that much less draconian efforts might be able to contain it (they're not out of the woods yet). So, giving up on containment seems shortsighted. Also, even if it can't be fully contained, one of the most important things we can do is "flatten the curve" so that we don't get a huge spike in infections and serious complications/deaths all at once, like we're seeing in Italy.

Social distancing and aggressive testing to ID those infected (especially asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic people) so they can self-quarantine can reduce the transmission rate enough to at least make this a long slow peak which our health care system can handle, which is what Merkel just said today about Germany, i.e., she "expects that up to 70% of the German population will likely contract the coronavirus," suggesting that the government’s priority is about “slowing its spread”...so as to "not overburden the health system."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/angela-merkel-most-people-will-get-the-coronavirus.html

I think Merkel is overstating things, as I do think it's possible that through aggressive testing and very proactive social distancing we can maybe lower the transmission rate (the R0 is estimated to be 2-3) low enough to not have everyone infected. I think it's at least worth the effort, especially since there is still some chance this behaves seasonally and transmission rates will go down soon with warmer/more humid weather. All of that combined would, at the very least, buy us more time to develop treatments and prepare strategies for a likely comeback of the virus in the fall.

Well I know there was some Harvard scientist awhile back saying 40-70% of world population will get it and personally I didn’t think it was a wild assumption.

Just have to try to control how it happens to an extent so everyone doesn’t have it at once overwhelming the health system. Some this season some next flu season and so on and hopefully a vaccine that can mitigate complications stemming from it in the years to come.

 

[albanyknight]

 

[Joey Bags]

One thing that I’m very interested in is how many cases of this come and go with a person getting just mild symptoms (indistinguishable from a normal cough). That’s important for 2 reasons; 1, to prevent spread to other more vulnerable demographics and 2, to confirm what the actual case load is with this.

In the US and around the world there is a major adverse selection situation in play. The majority of the cases are ID’d at a hospital, which means the individual is already experiencing moderate to severe symptoms enough for them to seek out significant medical attention. By extension, The fact that they are hospitalized also increases the likelihood of a fatal resoluton of the case. The numbers in SK suggest the adverse selection piece is valid (as long as SK is honestly reporting).

Numbers, not sure if you have seen any good info on this, I’ve seen very little to go off of.

 

[knight_ru]

RU2055

the problem with your argument is that it is not fully thought out. Will most people wind up getting it.... probably.

However - our existing medical infrastructure likely could not absorb a huge spike in bad cases and would result in more panic and other problems.

With some common sense programs and initiatives, the curve of Covid cases would be more gradual and therefore those who are infected could be handled with the correct level of care.

i would strongly urge you to refrain from pushing this take/angle further as it does more harm than good.

 

[kcg88]

My thinking is that if you do not already have coronavirus and you started practicing somewhat aggressive social distancing on Monday as this was starting to become THE story... you're gonna be fine. I would expect the rate of cases to continue the exponential climb through the weekend but start to flatten out as social distancing becomes less a recommendation and more just the way that people start living.

 

[rutgersguy1]

WHO declaring a global pandemic but that was just a technicality/formality....it's been that for awhile. Now that many are concerned I don't know that the level of panic or anything that exists already goes up with an official declaration.

Also another drive up testing site popping up in Denver.

From CNN:

Denver offers drive-up coronavirus testing


Colorado health officials will offer a drive-up testing lab for novel coronavirus in Denver, according to the state's Department of Public Health and Environment.

The service will be available starting today.

"Individuals must have an order from their doctor confirming they meet the testing criteria and need to be tested, and photo identification that matches the name on the doctor’s order," a department statement said.

Depending on test volume, results will be made available within 72 hours. Individuals getting tested should stay at home while awaiting results, the statement said.

 

[RU848789]

My thinking is that if you do not already have coronavirus and you started practicing somewhat aggressive social distancing on Monday as this was starting to become THE story... you're gonna be fine. I would expect the rate of cases to continue the exponential climb through the weekend but start to flatten out as social distancing becomes less a recommendation and more just the way that people start living.

Agreed - we've been in near lockdown since 3/1, the day after the Melody Reunion, lol; we're only going to the food store a couple of times a week for perishables just before they close when few are around; we have enough without doing that, but the risk is tiny from surfaces and with very few people around. Having a wife and son who are immunocompromised and have asthma are strong motivators to do this. I can also work from home for my 8-hr/wk gig.

 

[RU848789]

In case anyone didn't already know we were in a pandemic, it's now official from the WHO. But more interesting is the commentary from the head of the organziation, Dr. Tedros, where he says, "WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction...We have therefore made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic." Words pointed at the US and a few other countries who have been both incompetent and complacent in addressing the risks.

On the plus side, there is some potential good news, as a recent paper (not peer reviewed yet, but by a solid group) indicates that the transmissibility in temperatures above 58F may drastically slow down. As a result, if this is true, and we move into spring and towards summer, perhaps we will see enough of a reprieve for the US and other hard hit areas in Europe/Asia that are still fairly cold to get their arms around this.

However, if transmission rates are seasonal, like they are for the flu, a worse wave could easily hit the Northern Hemisphere in the fall, but at least we'll have more time to prepare. Just remember though - "hope" isn't a strategy, so we need to continue efforts to become much more proactive with testing and social distancing.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

 

[RU Cheese]

Rumor I heard from a colleague... CDC will declare a national emergency and effectively shut down DC, NYC, Boston. Not sure what shutdown will entail other than airports, etc. Personally didn't beleive it but said it would be announced today (if true)

 

[RU848789]

Rumor I heard from a colleague... CDC will declare a national emergency and effectively shut down DC, NYC, Boston. Not sure what shutdown will entail other than airports, etc. Personally didn't beleive it but said it would be announced today (if true)

Been saying things like that will happen in densely populated areas like the DC to Boston corridor for at least a week. Somebody needs to start paying me, lol. We're about to enter the Italy zone in this region, since we've been negligent on testing and social distancing, and it's going to get ugly.

 

[RU848789]

In case anyone didn't already know we were in a pandemic, it's now official from the WHO. But more interesting is the commentary from the head of the organziation, Dr. Tedros, where he says, "WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction...We have therefore made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic." Words pointed at the US and a few other countries who have been both incompetent and complacent in addressing the risks.

On the plus side, there is some potential good news, as a recent paper (not peer reviewed yet, but by a solid group) indicates that the transmissibility in temperatures above 58F may drastically slow down. As a result, if this is true, and we move into spring and towards summer, perhaps we will see enough of a reprieve for the US and other hard hit areas in Europe/Asia that are still fairly cold to get their arms around this.

However, if transmission rates are seasonal, like they are for the flu, a worse wave could easily hit the Northern Hemisphere in the fall, but at least we'll have more time to prepare. Just remember though - "hope" isn't a strategy, so we need to continue efforts to become much more proactive with testing and social distancing.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308

View embedded media

The tweets from Trump, Biden, Obama and others in that twitter feed are fascinating. Trump focusing on the wall again, like a friggin' moron and Biden saying a wall won't stop a virus and "do your job." I could go more political, but I won't, as we're trying to keep this thread scientific.

 

[Ronnie_B]

35 stories on the virus just on the front page of NJ.com.....35!

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

Ok, so I broke down and started my doomday prep. Food should get here Saturday.

 

[RU Cheese]

Been saying things like that will happen in densely populated areas like the DC to Boston corridor for at least a week. Somebody needs to start paying me, lol. We're about to enter the Italy zone in this region, since we've been negligent on testing and social distancing, and it's going to get ugly.

It's just a rumor. On one hand, I think most people could see something like this happening at some point. At the same time, it's such a departure from how the gov't has approched the whole thing that I'd be suprrised by the extent and the timing of this. AGain, just a rumor so who knows.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

It's sickening younger people with no underlying issues

https://www-foxbusiness-com.cdn.amp...estyle/coronavirus-patients-california-doctor

 

[RUhasarrived]

The Golden State Warriors are going Full Freddie Gray as no fans will be allowed for their game vs the Nets tomorrow night.

 

[RU848789]

Now this is what an information rich update looks like. Well done, Gov Murphy, although I'd like to see that tests in process number go up more quickly.

 

[Joey Bags]

It's sickening younger people with no underlying issues

https://www-foxbusiness-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-patients-california-doctor.amp?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA=#aoh=15839526892465&csi=1&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/coronavirus-patients-california-doctor

To be fair, two of my friends while at RU were hospitalized with pneumonia, so it can happen (even if rare). Just more reason for EVERYONE to be health conscious and practice distancing where possible

 

[RU848789]

Great investigative journalism here by the Times, detailing the coronavirus testing debacle in this country over the last 2 months. Incompetence and worse at the CDC, FDA and the Administration, in general. Worth a read to find out a big part of the reason why we're about to see US rates skyrocket over the next week or so, Italy-style, especially in the DC-Boston megalopolis which has a very high population density (higher than Italy's) and population density is likely critical to transmission rates, by pure math, given far more "opportunities" for transmission. Unless we get very aggressive NOW with testing and social distancing, we're screwed, IMO. I hope I'm wrong, I really, really do.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/...tion=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

 

[RUhasarrived]

Now it's real March Madness:The NCAA just banned all fans from both tournaments.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Scary stuff, read through this, especially those who have been downplaying this here

 

[albanyknight]

The one statement that keeps sticking in my mind is................................7-10 days and we will be Italy.

My wife...Bless her heart reminded me that we are going to NJ to my sister-in-laws for Easter Dinner. I told her I didn't plan on risking our lives for ham and kielbasa.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Heard on CNN Italy is closing all shops except supermarkets and pharmacies. Seen other reports of banks as well.

 

[Joey Bags]

Heard on CNN Italy is closing all shops except supermarkets and pharmacies. Seen other reports of banks as well.

View embedded media

Hopefully Italian Armed Forces will be on standby to coordinate food and medicine because I can't see those employees showing up for work.

 

[RU848789]

No surprise the NCAAs will now be held without fans - predicted this over a week ago (easy prediction really). And if we have the 5000+ cases expected by next Tuesday, they might even cancel/postpone the whole thing, like Italy has been doing, as we're much more likely on an Italy trajectory of misery than a South Korea trajectory of containing this thing.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...oronavirus-no-fans.192049/page-2#post-4443976