We can acknowledge the bubble is extremely weak and also say we have been falling right out of the tourney. But a little perspective is necessary , we were a 5/6 seed on February 4 when we beat MSU at MSG and when Mag went down. We are 2-6 since then with both wins on the road. Plus that MSG win should be considered neutral by the committee even if the NCAA declared it a home game. So as our losses have piled up we have slid to 7, then 8, then 9, now either 10 or 11 so that is sliding 5-6 seed lines which is massive and too harsh with the rest of our resume.
Look at Iowa State who lost 4 on a row and got blown out in a # of them , they were a 3 seed in the committee reveal 3 weeks ago . They have slid in many brackets to 5/7. So that is only 2-4 seed lines. Although the BIG 12 is better actually and in perception this year than the BIg 10, the gauntlet we have navigated is just as hard as the BIG 12 during this downward trend. We lost to Indiana and Illinois under double digits away projected as a 4 seed and 7 seed.so that will not ding the original 5/6 line much. We lost to Nebraska who will not be in the field but their beating Maryland , 7 seed , Wisconsin bubble , NW ,6 seed and now Iowa ,7/8 seed besides beating us has to lessen the initial thought that it was a terrible loss . So we start sliding to 6/8 seeding. We beat Wisconsin away who is in the field at the time and maybe still or on the bubble then our seed is closer to 6/7 than an 8.
We lose to Michigan , a true bubble out of the tourney today but just lost 3 OT games in a row and any Committee member watching them this month has to think they are a tourney team although they likely will not make it. So maybe on the 7 line or 8 line .
We beat Penn State on the road and they are a true bubble and in some brackets as last team in today and we won there something other tourney teams Maryland , Illinois ,Purdue and others did not. So after Michigan and Penn State we should still be in that 7-9 seed range.
We lose at Minnesota ( leaving out for a second we were leading the whole game until 1/2 a second left and controlled that game by double digits for almost 25 minutes until the 1 minute meltdown ) , that should ding us and if we were a 7 then an 8 , if an 8 then a 9 , and if a 9 before that game , then we are a 10 . Maybe lower but that wouldn’t be consistent.
Nw is a 6 seed so maybe we slide on the same seed line down a notch or 2. So if we were a lower 8 now first 9 , if a 9 maybe last 9 , if a 10 ( pretty unfair in my opinion prior to NW ) then lower 10.
So when looked at objectively and fairly we should still be safely in the field and not in Dayton. Now supposedly the last 5-10 games are not weighed any differently than the first 5-10 but the human factor on the committee will notice we are struggling and playing not like a tourney team but we are struggling against the teams in the 2nd best conference in the country losing to mostly bubble teams or solid in the field teams , hot teams , and one bad team. Hope they do their full diligence. This doesn’t solve our offensive problems which has its own thread.
