Indiana at Illinois....what is better for RU winning on Sunday?

[Greene Rice FIG]

My 1st thought is if Indiana loses against Illinois their at large chances are basically shot and we face a dejected team that knows they have to win the B1G tournament to get in.

However I really think we are better of if Indiana wins and knows a Rutgers win could temporarily put the on the right side of the bubble. You would think they would play harder knowing how important the game is, but the flip side of the pressure and playing not to lose can benefit us more.

Curious to see who everyone else is rooting for.

 

[Arizona Knight]

I wouldn’t overthink this one. We want them to lose to Illinois.

 

[Andrew Donnelly]

I wouldn’t overthink this one. We want them to lose to Illinois.

Why? If we lose to indiana they finish ahead of us in the standings regardless of the result of their game tonight. If Indiana wins tonight we still have a shot at jumping Illinois in the standings

 

[Arizona Knight]

Why? If we lose to indiana they finish ahead of us in the standings regardless of the result of their game tonight. If Indiana wins tonight we still have a shot at jumping Illinois in the standings

A less motivated Indiana team is a good thing for us. A loss tonight pops their bubble barring a very deep run in the tournament.

 

[S.W.A.I.N]

We want Indiana to win, and then we need to beat them. Motivation doesn't matter as much as the actual standings...

 

[PiscatawayMike]

I want Indiana to win tonight simply to see how Rutgers performs on the road vs. a blue blood in a raucous atmosphere in a game that has NCAA implications for the host school.

It'll be another learning experience for our young, but learning fast, Scarlet Knights.

 

[bac2therac]

Im rooting for Illinois...and for Illinois to beat Penn State.

If Indiana loses tonight, its devestating for their NCAA hopes..like almost nil. I would rather have that kind of Indiana coming into the final game.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

I want Indiana to win tonight simply to see how Rutgers performs on the road vs. a blue blood in a raucous atmosphere in a game that has NCAA implications for the host school.

It'll be another learning experience for our young, but learning fast, Scarlet Knights.

There's 2 paths.

RU wins...problem solved.....

Indiana wins....RU learns in a tough environment against another team we beat earlier..

Indiana loses BUT still has a chance to avoid 11th spot and Northwestern. Still enough motivation to play.

My worse case scenario is Indiana wins and beats RU.....BUT it would probably force RU into the 11th spot, vs 14th seeded Northwestern.

But if you play Northwestern and win, you probably draw 6th seeded Iowa the next day. Probably a strange 3rd meeting but not the worse draw in the world.

 

[RUChoppin]

Why? If we lose to indiana they finish ahead of us in the standings regardless of the result of their game tonight. If Indiana wins tonight we still have a shot at jumping Illinois in the standings

Games left for teams in contention for 8th-12th

8-11 OSU (vs Wisconsin)
7-11 Illinois (vs. Indiana, @PSU)
7-12 RU (@Indiana)
6-12 Indiana (@Illinois, vs. RU)
6-13 PSU (vs. Illinois)

- OSU/Illinois split their meetings, so if they are in a 2-way tie with 9 wins, it goes to best conference win - which would go to Illinois, who beat MSU.

- Assuming OSU loses without Wesson to #21 Wisconsin, that puts them with 8 wins.

- Assuming Northwestern loses to Purdue and stays in 14th.

- If RU beats Indiana to get to 8 wins, and...
....Illinois goes 2-0, they would have 9 wins and capture 8th place, with RU in a strange tiebreaker with OSU. We split with OSU, and they win the tiebreaker, which would put us 10th. We'd then play Minnesota.
... Illinois goes 1-1, that would leave us in a 3-way tie with OSU and Illinois with 8 wins, which we would win and finish 8th in conference (with OSU 9th and Illinois 10th). In this scenario, we'd play OSU.
... Illinois goes 0-2, they would have 7 wins and put us in a tie with OSU, which would put us at 9th. In this scenario, we'd play OSU.

- If RU loses to Indiana to stay at 7 wins, and...
... Illinois goes 2-0, there would be a two way tie between RU and Indiana, which would go to Indiana and we'd finish 11th. In this scenario, we'd play Northwestern.
... Illinois beats Indiana but loses to PSU, then there would be a three-way tie with 7 wins between RU, Indiana, and PSU. Which would result in Indiana in 10th, RU in 11th, and PSU in 12th. In this scenario, we'd play Northwestern.
... Illinois beats PSU but loses to Indiana, we'd be alone in 11th. In this scenario, we'd play Northwestern.
... Illinois goes 0-2, then we'd be in a three way tie with Illinois and PSU, and we'd finish in 12th. In this scenario, we'd play Nebraska.

So, assuming OSU loses to Wisconsin... if Illinois beats Indiana, we finish no lower than 11th (and possibly as high as 8th). If Illinois loses to Indiana, we could finish as low as 12th (and possibly as high as 8th).

I think I have that right... either way, though, we need to beat Indiana to get the bye.

Edit: To add predicted opponents.
Edit 2: To fix tiebreaker with OSU

 

[bac2therac]

I wouldnt mind facing Ohio State without Wesson, I know they are playing for their NCAA lives but not sure they have a push anymore without Wesson. Dont want to play Illinois

Wouldnt mind playing Minnesota as they are definitely beatable.

The only schools I do not want to face are Penn State and Illinois and I do not think there is a scenerio that has us playing Indiana if we get the bye....what is the scenerio if Nebby and PSU tie at 6-14? Nebby would have to beat Iowa and Illinois would beat PSU. They split the season series so I guess PSU wins that tiebreaker because they beat Michigan...so we cant face them.

 

[kcg88]

Wesson will be back for the Big Ten tournament.

 

[Upstream]

The only schools I do not want to face are Penn State and Illinois and I do not think there is a scenerio that has us playing Indiana if we get the bye....what is the scenerio if Nebby and PSU tie at 6-14? Nebby would have to beat Iowa and Illinois would beat PSU. They split the season series so I guess PSU wins that tiebreaker because they beat Michigan...so we cant face them.

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

Yes, if Nebraska and PSU tie, then PSU wins the tie-breaker.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Choppin, nice work overall but if we lose and Illinois goes 0-2 we are 12th seed and face Nebraska. PSU would be 10, Illinois 11.

There are several scenarios where a loss has us in 11th, playing Northwestern.

Scenario generator: if we win and Illinois goes 0-2, we are 9th seed. We would face OSU or Minnesota.

I couldn't find a scenario where out first opponent is Indiana, Illinois or PSU.

It would be nice to finish 9th, grab a bye and beat the Buckeyes. That is another way to sell progress.

Iowa can get to 5th with two wins and Wisconsin losing out if Maryland beats Minnesota. Heck, I found a way we could play Iowa in the 7 vs 10 game.

 

[RUChoppin]

Choppin, nice work overall but if we lose and Illinois goes 0-2 we are 12th seed and face Nebraska. PSU would be 10, Illinois 11.

Thanks, missed that - will correct above.

 

[RUChoppin]

Choppin, nice work overall but if we lose and Illinois goes 0-2 we are 12th seed and face Nebraska. PSU would be 10, Illinois 11.

There are several scenarios where a loss has us in 11th, playing Northwestern.

Scenario generator: if we win and Illinois goes 0-2, we are 9th seed. We would face OSU or Minnesota.

I couldn't find a scenario where out first opponent is Indiana, Illinois or PSU.

It would be nice to finish 9th, grab a bye and beat the Buckeyes. That is another way to sell progress.

Iowa can get to 5th with two wins and Wisconsin losing out if Maryland beats Minnesota. Heck, I found a way we could play Iowa in the 7 vs 10 game.

How does the two-way tiebreaker would work between RU and OSU? We'd be 1-1 vs each other, and our "best win" would be against the same team (Iowa).

If I read the tie breaker rules correctly, you start with record against the best team in the conference, then if still tied add in the record against the 2nd best team, then the 3rd best, etc... until one team has a higher percentage. If that's how it works, we should end up ahead of OSU, because they have more losses than we do when you add in games vs. Iowa.

Or do you take the record against each team in isolation, so their 1-0 record vs. Iowa would beat our 1-1 record?

 

[RUtrumpet92]

That tiebreaker link posted above said to keep going down the standings until one team has an advantage. In case we tie with Ohio State, they get the edge because they are 1-0 vs. Minnesota and we are 1-1.

 

[RUChoppin]

That tiebreaker link posted above said to keep going down the standings until one team has an advantage. In case we tie with Ohio State, they get the edge because they are 1-0 vs. Minnesota and we are 1-1.

I wasn't sure if it was cumulative or not - but in rereading it, it looks like it's only cumulative if two teams are tied in the standings. So, even if Minnesota and Iowa tie with 10 wins, it'd still be 2-1 for OSU and 2-2 for us.

Okay, will adjust the above again.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Indiana in complete control tonight.

Win Sunday = bye
Lose Sunday = 11 or 12

 

[RUonBrain]

Indiana in complete control tonight.

Win Sunday = bye
Lose Sunday = 11 or 12

If we lose and PSU beats Illinois, we are 12.
If we lose and Illinois beats PSU, we are 11.

IF we lose, which is better?

11 vs Northwestern
Then vs 6 seed (Iowa?)

Or
12 vs Nebraska
Then vs 5 seed (Maryland?)

 

[RU-Choppin-Ohio]

If we lose and PSU beats Illinois, we are 12.
If we lose and Illinois beats PSU, we are 11.

IF we lose, which is better?

11 vs Northwestern
Then vs 6 seed (Iowa?)

Or
12 vs Nebraska
Then vs 5 seed (Maryland?)

The path that gets us Iowa....they lost by 20 to Wisconsin tonight.

 

[bac2therac]

I think Nebby has a higher ceiling that Northwestern in that there is enough talent there to have a hot shooting night and beat us. Northwestern would be more of a grind defensive game which we are fairly good at winning. Listen any game will be a challenge but I would take my chances with Northwestern again

 

[BillyC80]

Will our depth help us go deep in the BTT?

If we finish in the bottom 4 and then win two we gotta play a rested team who earned a double-bye.

Normally that’s almost an impossible task, but maybe our depth helps and maybe a too-rested opponent is not sharp.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

If we lose and PSU beats Illinois, we are 12.
If we lose and Illinois beats PSU, we are 11.

IF we lose, which is better?

11 vs Northwestern
Then vs 6 seed (Iowa?)

Or
12 vs Nebraska
Then vs 5 seed (Maryland?)

NW/Iowa looks much more appealing than Nebraska/Maryland.

#5 will be Wisconsin if they lose to Ohio State and Maryland beats Minnesota.

If Minnesota beats Maryland and Iowa loses to Nebraska, then Iowa falls to 7 and Minnesota climbs to 6.

If Iowa loses to Nebraska and goes out badly in their first B1G game, I don't care what their earlier record was, they should be nervous about the big dance.

 

[knights1212]

I think that if Indiana should beat us and if Penn State defeats Illinois that we would end at 7-13 with Penn State and Illinois but in a 3 way tie I think we would lose out as Penn State would be 3-1, Illinois would be 1-2 as we would also be but Illinois beat us in our only game with them. If this would happen I think we would finish at # 12, Illinois would be # 11 and Penn State would finish at # 10. I might be wrong but that is the way I see it could end up. If Illinois defeats Penn state than they would be # 12 and we could be # 11. There are many things that could change this possibility.

 

[Bababooey_Class'80]

If we lose and PSU beats Illinois, we are 12.
If we lose and Illinois beats PSU, we are 11.

IF we lose, which is better?

11 vs Northwestern
Then vs 6 seed (Iowa?)

Or
12 vs Nebraska
Then vs 5 seed (Maryland?)

 

[Bababooey_Class'80]

Let us all please root for an Illinois win.

 

[knights1212]

Very true indeed.

 

[BOGDANOVICH]

There's 2 paths.

RU wins...problem solved.....

Indiana wins....RU learns in a tough environment against another team we beat earlier..

Indiana loses BUT still has a chance to avoid 11th spot and Northwestern. Still enough motivation to play.

My worse case scenario is Indiana wins and beats RU.....BUT it would probably force RU into the 11th spot, vs 14th seeded Northwestern.

But if you play Northwestern and win, you probably draw 6th seeded Iowa the next day. Probably a strange 3rd meeting but not the worse draw in the world.

Actually, if Indiana wins and Rutgers falls to 11th place, and then would have to play Northwestern and Iowa, it would be a better scenario than having to play Minnesota and then Michigan after a victory over Indiana.

 

[rufeelinit]

Indiana with an impressive W at Illinois last night. Both now 7-12 in league. Big challenge Sunday in Bloomington.

 

[Upstream]

If Rutgers beats Indiana,

• and Penn St beats Illinois, then we're 9 seed and get OSU or Minn followed by Mich or Mich St
• and Illinois beats Penn St, then we're 10 seed and get Minn, Iowa, or OSU followed by Purdue (unless NW beats Purdue, in which case we would get the loser of the Mich-MSU game).

If Rutgers loses to Indiana,

• and Penn St beats Illinois, then we're 12 seed and get Nebraska, followed by Maryland or Iowa, and then Wisconsin or Maryland.
• and Illinois beats Penn St, then we're 11 seed and get Northwestern, followed by Iowa, Wisc, or Minn, and then the loser of the Mich-MSU game (unless NW beats Purdue, in which case we get Purdue).

Both Rutgers at Indiana and Illinois at Penn State are played at noon on Sunday.

 

[RUJMM78]

I think that if Indiana should beat us and if Penn State defeats Illinois that we would end at 7-13 with Penn State and Illinois but in a 3 way tie I think we would lose out as Penn State would be 3-1, Illinois would be 1-2 as we would also be but Illinois beat us in our only game with them. If this would happen I think we would finish at # 12, Illinois would be # 11 and Penn State would finish at # 10. I might be wrong but that is the way I see it could end up. If Illinois defeats Penn state than they would be # 12 and we could be # 11. There are many things that could change this possibility.

Rutgers losing to Penn State and Iowa at home have really impacted their league rankings in a negative way.For whatever reason this team seems to play better on the road than at home which is concerning .

 

[RUChoppin]

Okay, to update (and I realize I had another error above, which I fixed below):

Games left for teams in contention for 7th-14th... all games will be played on Sunday except Minn/MD and NW/Purdue:

9-10 Minnesota (@Maryland, tonight)
8-11 OSU (vs Wisconsin)
7-12 Illinois (@PSU)
7-12 RU (@Indiana)
7-12 Indiana (vs. RU)
6-13 PSU (vs. Illinois)
5-14 Nebraska (vs. Iowa)
4-15 Northwestern (vs. Purdue, Sat)

-- Assuming OSU loses to Wisconsin

- If RU beats Indiana to get to 8 wins, and...
... Illinois beats PSU, that would leave us in a 3-way tie with OSU and Illinois with 8 wins, which goes to a mini-conference tiebreaker of records against each other (Illinois 2-1, OSU 2-2, and RU 1-2), where we'd finish 10th in conference (with Illinois 8th and OSU 9th). In this scenario, we'd play Minnesota.
... Illinois loses to PSU, they would have 7 wins and put us in a tie with OSU, which would would lose, putting us at 9th. In this scenario, we'd play OSU.

- If RU loses to Indiana to stay at 7 wins, and...
... Illinois beats PSU, we'd be alone in 11th. In this scenario, we'd play Northwestern.
... Illinois loses to PSU, then we'd be in a three way tie with Illinois and PSU, which would go to a mini-conference tiebreaker (PSU 3-1, RU 1-2, Illinois 1-2), and we'd finish in 12th. In this scenario, we'd play Nebraska.

-- If OSU beats Wisconsin, but Minnesota beats MD, then I think the above final conference placement scenarios stay intact.

-- If OSU beats Wisconsin AND Minnesota loses to MD, then OSU would finish in 7th and Minnesota in 8th (due to OSU's tiebreak over Minnesota). In that case and the case of RU beating Indiana, it wouldn't change our seeding, but we'd play OSU if we came in 10th and Minnesota if we came in 9th.

So, if I have this right (and I might not), our first opponent will either be Minnesota, OSU, Northwestern, or Nebraska.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Key games are RU-Indiana, PSU-Illinois, and Wisconsin-Ohio State (only matters for our seeding if we win Sunday).

If winners this weekend are: Rutgers, Penn State, Wisconsin:
#9 RU vs #8 Ohio State

If winners are Rutgers, Penn State, Ohio State:
#9 RU vs #8 Minnesota

If winners are: Rutgers, Illinois, Wisconsin:
#10 RU vs #7 Minnesota

If winners are: Rutgers, Illinois, Ohio State:
#10 RU vs #7 Ohio State

If winners this weekend are: Indiana, Penn State (either Wisconsin/OSU, irrelevant):
#12 RU vs #13 Nebraska

If winners this weekend are: Indiana, Illinois (either Wisconsin/OSU, irrelevant):
#11 RU vs #14 Northwestern

Iowa is locked at #6. #5 could be Wisconsin with a win tomorrow or Maryland. Even if Wisconsin loses, Maryland needs Purdue and Michigan State to win to jump to #4.