OT: Minor to Moderate Snow (or rain to snow) for Sunday, 1/19? Could also be a whiff or more significant (high uncertainty).

[RU848789]

Even more model mayhem at 0Z (7 pm EST data inputs, which is just about 4 days out from the start of the event Sunday afternoon). Could be anything from 0-6" and we're not going to have a good handle on this one for at least the next 12-24 hours. Figured I'd start a thread though just to alert folks to this weekend's wintry potential, as opposed to continuing to track and discuss this in the pattern thread. The only certainty is that it's going to get freakin' cold from Monday through Friday of next week, with highs below 32F (and well down into the 20s Mon/Tues/Weds) and lows in the teens (maybe single digits Tues/Weds). There might be another chance at snow around 1/22-23.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...tern-likely-for-most-of-january.287192/page-5

• The CMC is much more amped than the other models putting down 6"+ just NW of 95 and beyond, with 6" down to 1" as one goes from NWS Middlesex County to SE Middlesex (incredible gradient) and nada SE of there, due to warmer temps and rain.
• The UK shows a general 2-4 (3-6" if we factor in potential high ratios with temps in the 20s).
• The ICON shows a general 1-2" and maybe up to 3" if we factor in potential high ratios with temps in the 20s.
• On the flip side the GFS and Euro are nearly identical with precip much further offshore, so just some snow showers and <1/2" for almost everyone.
  • It's also worth noting that the Euro and GFS ensemble mean (the average of 20-50 runs of each model with slightly varying data and assumption inputs to evaluate model sensitivity) shows maybe an inch to 2 inches of snow for this event, which implies that perhaps the Euro/GFS Operational model runs, above, are outliers.
  • In addition, the Euro-AIFS (the AI version of the Euro, which has been quite accurate this winter) is showing about 3-5" for the area.
  • Note that snow ratios greater than 10:1 would be favored if we have the colder solutions, but not if the warmer solutions, like the CMC verify, which could decrease ratios; also even in a cold solution high ratios aren't a given if we don't get good dendritic growth aloft, which is a major key to high ratios.

Going to be very difficult to make a forecast with that kind of spread. FWIW, Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 was discussing (not a forecast) the possibility of a 1-3" event, especially S of 78 and towards the coast with a bit more possible, but also less if the storm stays further off the coast. And the NWS-Philly, in their discussion earlier, were thinking along the lines of a general 1-2" event for our region, although that's also not an official forecast. The AmericanWx thread on this event is linked below - lots of discussion and maps.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...22-focused-inauguration-day-and-21st/page/13/

 

[WhiteBus]

None of the Philadelphia Stations are talking about "inches" let alone 6". Sunday is still a few days away but all of them are going with flurries and daytime highs in the mid 30s.
The biggest story is the deep freeze Mon.-Wed. With highs in the teens and lows in single digits. This is the lowest temps in 2 years! Silly to focus on flurries. Polar temps is the lead story over the next week.

 

[RU848789]

This morning's 6Z Euro and GFS are no longer out-to-sea holdouts, with the Euro showing a general 2-4" of snow for the entire Philly-NJ-NYC area and the GFS showing a general 1-3" for the area with up to 4" towards the coast. On the other hand, the 6Z ICON cut back to only 1" or so near the coast with very little along/NW of 95. The Euro and GFS making major moves towards the "snowy" camp, though, is certainly big news; since those are the two most heavily used models by forecasters at this range and are the only models TWC ever shows; we don't get the CMC/UK at 6Z, so let's see where we are at 12Z to see if we finally see some consensus.

It's also worth noting that both the Euro and GFS show temps around 32F at the start of precip, but temps drop quickly into the 20s, meaning that snow ratios would likely be greater than 10:1, so those snowfall amounts (which are at 10:1, snow:liquid ratios) could easily be 20-40% greater, but I don't typically like to count on greater ratios until closer to the event, when snow growth parameters are better known.

 

[RU848789]

None of the Philadelphia Stations are talking about "inches" let alone 6". Sunday is still a few days away but all of them are going with flurries and daytime highs in the mid 30s.
The biggest story is the deep freeze Mon.-Wed. With highs in the teens and lows in single digits. This is the lowest temps in 2 years! Silly to focus on flurries. Polar temps is the lead story over the next week.

I can understand them being skeptical, given that most forecasters rely on the Euro and/or GFS models beyond 2 days out and those models yesterday/last night were showing little to no snow, so they likely discounted the snowier models like the CMC/UK/ICON/Euor-AIFS. However, with the 6Z much snowier outcomes for the Euro and GFS, if we see that continue with the 12Z models - and the other models don't all of a sudden show little snow - then the snow will become a much bigger story quickly. The cold will certainly be a big story too.

 

[WhiteBus]

I can understand them being skeptical, given that most forecasters rely on the Euro and/or GFS models beyond 2 days out and those models yesterday/last night were showing little to no snow, so they likely discounted the snowier models like the CMC/UK/ICON/Euor-AIFS. However, with the 6Z much snowier outcomes for the Euro and GFS, if we see that continue with the 12Z models - and the other models don't all of a sudden show little snow - then the snow will become a much bigger story quickly. The cold will certainly be a big story too.

They aren't beginning skeptical. They are being logical. It isn't their job to chase the worse case scenario. They present the mostly likely forecast at the time of the forecast. One of the station added the models are all over the place but "right now" flurries are likely.
The earth scorched possibilities that the NWS always chases hides the reality of what is most likely to happen.
Answer me this. What is, by far, l most likely right now. 6 inches of snow or high temperatures in the teens and low in single digits in the next week.

 

[m1ipabrams]

Great, planning on moving our son back to RU on Sunday.... yuck

 

[Sweet Peas Corner]

They aren't beginning skeptical. They are being logical. It isn't their job to chase the worse case scenario. They present the mostly likely forecast at the time of the forecast. One of the station added the models are all over the place but "right now" flurries are likely.
The earth scorched possibilities that the NWS always chases hides the reality of what is most likely to happen.
Answer me this. What is, by far, l most likely right now. 6 inches of snow or high temperatures in the teens and low in single digits in the next week.

Yes. They don't give 200 scenarios saying we could get 2-4 but that we get 10 inches but its unlikely.

 

[bac2therac]

They aren't beginning skeptical. They are being logical. It isn't their job to chase the worse case scenario. They present the mostly likely forecast at the time of the forecast. One of the station added the models are all over the place but "right now" flurries are likely.
The earth scorched possibilities that the NWS always chases hides the reality of what is most likely to happen.
Answer me this. What is, by far, l most likely right now. 6 inches of snow or high temperatures in the teens and low in single digits in the next week.

This

Numbers snow bias is really showing in his first 2 posts in thread. Let it play out rather than model hug. Primeexample is alreay mentioning snow ratiis before we know the track of the storm...esoecially considering that amped cmc solution is precariously with a warmer/wetter concern

If models nests starting coming into agreement 3-4 more runs than confidence starts building

 

[chickenpatty2]

Great, planning on moving our son back to RU on Sunday.... yuck

Reminds me of my dad dropping me back off from winter break during my freshman year. Got there early, dorms not open yet as confirmed by a maintenance guy doing some shoveling. Dad took me to Burger King down on Easton Ave. in Somerset. Bonding moment.

Make some memories, and safe travels.

 

[retired711]

FWIW, here is the current forecast discussion from the Philly NWS:

A strong arctic cold front is expected to arrive sometime
Sunday, with a much colder airmass advecting in behind it. Still
watching the potential for a low to develop on the front once
it is south and east of our region, which could bring some
snowfall to the region. The 00Z suite of guidance backed off
again on this potential (similar to the trend from 24 hours
ago). Given that there has been poor run to run consistency on
this system, stayed close to a blend of guidance and previous
forecast. Even if it develops, the system will be rather weak
and progressive, so snowfall totals and resulting impacts appear
minor.

 

[RU848789]

They aren't beginning skeptical. They are being logical. It isn't their job to chase the worse case scenario. They present the mostly likely forecast at the time of the forecast. One of the station added the models are all over the place but "right now" flurries are likely.
The earth scorched possibilities that the NWS always chases hides the reality of what is most likely to happen.
Answer me this. What is, by far, l most likely right now. 6 inches of snow or high temperatures in the teens and low in single digits in the next week.

No, they're just generally biased towards the Euro and GFS and IMO ignoring the rest of the guidance and not even mentioning snow possibility is just lazy. But you're absolutely right that bitter cold next week is a lock, while several inches of snow on Sunday is still in question - I've said that several times. I also see no issue in discussing snowfall possibilities, though, either. And I have no clue what you're saying about the NWS - as of 4 am, they're still saying any snowfall would likely be minor - but they'll change that tune by 4 pm, should we see the 12Z models come to a decent consensus on a moderate snowfall, especially the Euro and GFS.

 

[miket007]

I will say this winter has felt like winters of the 1980s/90s with straight cold weather. I'm almost scared to think about February....

 

[RU848789]

This

Numbers snow bias is really showing in his first 2 posts in thread. Let it play out rather than model hug. Primeexample is alreay mentioning snow ratiis before we know the track of the storm...esoecially considering that amped cmc solution is precariously with a warmer/wetter concern

If models nests starting coming into agreement 3-4 more runs than confidence starts building

No bias to simply discuss possibilities - what model have I hugged? None, just shared the outcomes and noted that people will remain skeptical of the other models if the Euro/GFS aren't on board, which you know is true - and reporting that the 6Z Euro and GFS are snowy instead of nearly nada is a big change.

There's also zero issue with mentioning snow ratios possibly being high IF temps are in the 20s, but I forgot to add the caveats I had in previous posts on ratios, so I just put those into the first post. Good catch, but I simply forgot - wasn't a bias issue.

I also find it odd that you say I'm biased for simply discussing possibilities, yet you do that all the time in your bracketology posts, knowing some of the possibilities you discuss will prove right and some will prove wrong.

 

[RU848789]

FWIW, here is the current forecast discussion from the Philly NWS:

A strong arctic cold front is expected to arrive sometime
Sunday, with a much colder airmass advecting in behind it. Still
watching the potential for a low to develop on the front once
it is south and east of our region, which could bring some
snowfall to the region. The 00Z suite of guidance backed off
again on this potential (similar to the trend from 24 hours
ago). Given that there has been poor run to run consistency on
this system, stayed close to a blend of guidance and previous
forecast. Even if it develops, the system will be rather weak
and progressive, so snowfall totals and resulting impacts appear
minor.

Yes, they were quite skeptical at 4 am. They won't be if the 12Z global models come in hot, like the first one just did with the ICON showing much more snow than previous runs (a general 3-5"). We'll know in about 2 hours...

 

[bac2therac]

No bias to simply discuss possibilities - what model have I hugged? None, just shared the outcomes and noted that people will remain skeptical of the other models if the Euro/GFS aren't on board, which you know is true - and reporting that the 6Z Euro and GFS are snowy instead of nearly nada is a big change.

There's also zero issue with mentioning snow ratios possibly being high IF temps are in the 20s, but I forgot to add the caveats I had in previous posts on ratios, so I just put those into the first post. Good catch, but I simply forgot - wasn't a bias issue.

I also find it odd that you say I'm biased for simply discussing possibilities, yet you do that all the time in your bracketology posts, knowing some of the possibilities you discuss will prove right and some will prove wrong.

what biases do i have in my bracketology...bring receipts on that. I treat Rutgers and the Big 10 fairly Bracketology and weather are not the same. You are rooting for a moderate type event here and it shows. That CMC solution on the maps would be big trouble for our area with big slops. You are rushing to the ensembles to try and explain away the OP of gfs /euro and bringing up the Euro AI in a way to try to justify a bigger event. And yes the Euro AI has scored well of late, its just that I really dont recall you bringing it up much before and I also dont recall you using the Icon regularly like you do now. Its been all over the map with this event thus far and is trash like the JMA. Its only used in the winter by weenies on the weather boards really. This isnt a tropical event. When was the last winter storm that someone said boy the Icon sure bitchslapped the other models on this event.

 

[bac2therac]

Yes, they were quite skeptical at 4 am. They won't be if the 12Z global models come in hot, like the first one just did with the ICON showing much more snow than previous runs (a general 3-5"). We'll know in about 2 hours...

again with the Icon, in fact when has Mt Holly even referenced the Icon, for that matter when has any met on tv or radio or zarrow even mentioned the Icon

they may shift the forecast because duh...because anything over 72 hours isnt reliable on the models but its not going to be because of what the Icon spit out on a clown map

 

[RUPete]

Reminds me of my dad dropping me back off from winter break during my freshman year. Got there early, dorms not open yet as confirmed by a maintenance guy doing some shoveling. Dad took me to Burger King down on Easton Ave. in Somerset. Bonding moment.

Make some memories, and safe travels.

Is that where you got your board handle from? Did BK offer chicken sandwiches at the time?

 

[RU848789]

Mid-single digits in Central Park's UHI (urban heat island) likely means below 0F readings almost everywhere else. It's going to get quite cold if the Euro is right, as per below and we're only 5-6 days out so this is a solid forecast. We also don't often see a CPC graphic for the next 6-10 days being that cold. Just posted this in the pattern thread, but that one will likely fall by the wayside a bit soon.

 

[RU848789]

what biases do i have in my bracketology...bring receipts on that. I treat Rutgers and the Big 10 fairly Bracketology and weather are not the same. You are rooting for a moderate type event here and it shows. That CMC solution on the maps would be big trouble for our area with big slops. You are rushing to the ensembles to try and explain away the OP of gfs /euro and bringing up the Euro AI in a way to try to justify a bigger event. And yes the Euro AI has scored well of late, its just that I really dont recall you bringing it up much before and I also dont recall you using the Icon regularly like you do now. Its been all over the map with this event thus far and is trash like the JMA. Its only used in the winter by weenies on the weather boards really. This isnt a tropical event. When was the last winter storm that someone said boy the Icon sure bitchslapped the other models on this event.

Please try to read and understand before posting. I never said you were biased with your bracketology posts. What I said was that simply discussing possibilities as you do in those threads and I do in these threads doesn't equate to bias. The rest of your post above is gobbledygook crap. I've mentioned all of those possibilities and I've said uncertainty is high and a whiff or mostly rain are risks. And I've only started mentioning the Euro AIFS model this winter because it's finally available on Pivotal and is doing quite well. And I look at the ICON as simply another input, which is flawed, but has shown some accuracy in some situations (like most models). You are, however, quite biased against snow and it shows regularly in your posts and is why you get banned on the weather boards.

 

[WhiteBus]

No, they're just generally biased towards the Euro and GFS and IMO ignoring the rest of the guidance and not even mentioning snow possibility is just lazy. But you're absolutely right that bitter cold next week is a lock, while several inches of snow on Sunday is still in question - I've said that several times. I also see no issue in discussing snowfall possibilities, though, either. And I have no clue what you're saying about the NWS - as of 4 am, they're still saying any snowfall would likely be minor - but they'll change that tune by 4 pm, should we see the 12Z models come to a decent consensus on a moderate snowfall, especially the Euro and GFS.

I guess you never watched the Philly news stations. They aren't lazy. They all talk about what all models are saying are saying. As I already said it was mentioned by one (6ABC) this morning. The don't rely on one or two. They are actual professional meteorologists. That wasn't always the case. We did have John Bolaris here years ago who was a worst case scenario weatherman. Besides other issues he was finally fired after a horrendous Memorial Day weekend forecast that called for heavy rains and people cancelled plans. Instead in reality it was a partly sunny weekend.
Sadly we lost Chris Sowers, who was excellent, to a station in West Palm a few months ago.

 

[bac2therac]

I guess you never watched the Philly news stations. They aren't lazy. They all talk about what all models are saying are saying. As I already said it was mentioned by one (6ABC) this morning. The don't rely on one or two. They are actual professional meteorologists. That wasn't always the case. We did have John Bolaris here years ago who was a worst case scenario weatherman. Besides other issues he was finally fired after a horrendous Memorial Day weekend forecast that called for heavy rains and people cancelled plans. Instead in reality it was a partly sunny weekend.
Sadly we lost Chris Sowers, who was excellent, to a station in West Palm a few months ago.

I remember the days of Herb Clarke who guided me through my favorite storm of all time the February 1983 snowdump.

 

[bac2therac]

Please try to read and understand before posting. I never said you were biased with your bracketology posts. What I said was that simply discussing possibilities as you do in those threads and I do in these threads doesn't equate to bias. The rest of your post above is gobbledygook crap. I've mentioned all of those possibilities and I've said uncertainty is high and a whiff or mostly rain are risks. And I've only started mentioning the Euro AIFS model this winter because it's finally available on Pivotal and is doing quite well. And I look at the ICON as simply another input, which is flawed, but has shown some accuracy in some situations (like most models). You are, however, quite biased against snow and it shows regularly in your posts and is why you get banned on the weather boards.

im not banned on americanwx so what are you talking about.....if 33 and rain banned me it was because i question climate change policies and they seem to have a free speech issue...do they even have a board anymore

again the ICON is considered a joke by most, yet all of a sudden this year you are referencing it when I really do not recall you paying attention to it

 

[Local Shill]

Numbers and Bac exchanging barbs on here is great entertianment on a January morning, I must say.

 

[mikemarc1]

Can we get back to the weather and stop this childish back and forth that occurs on EVERY weather thread, please???!? My gosh…

 

[mikemarc1]

Numbers and Bac exchanging barbs on here is great entertianment on a January morning, I must say.

It is so childish.

 

[RU848789]

Even more model mayhem at 0Z (7 pm EST data inputs, which is just about 4 days out from the start of the event Sunday afternoon). Could be anything from 0-6" and we're not going to have a good handle on this one for at least the next 12-24 hours. Figured I'd start a thread though just to alert folks to this weekend's wintry potential, as opposed to continuing to track and discuss this in the pattern thread. The only certainty is that it's going to get freakin' cold from Monday through Friday of next week, with highs below 32F (and well down into the 20s Mon/Tues/Weds) and lows in the teens (maybe single digits Tues/Weds). There might be another chance at snow around 1/22-23.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...tern-likely-for-most-of-january.287192/page-5

• The CMC is much more amped than the other models putting down 6"+ just NW of 95 and beyond, with 6" down to 1" as one goes from NWS Middlesex County to SE Middlesex (incredible gradient) and nada SE of there, due to warmer temps and rain.
• The UK shows a general 2-4 (3-6" if we factor in potential high ratios with temps in the 20s).
• The ICON shows a general 1-2" and maybe up to 3" if we factor in potential high ratios with temps in the 20s.
• On the flip side the GFS and Euro are nearly identical with precip much further offshore, so just some snow showers and <1/2" for almost everyone.
  • It's also worth noting that the Euro and GFS ensemble mean (the average of 20-50 runs of each model with slightly varying data and assumption inputs to evaluate model sensitivity) shows maybe an inch to 2 inches of snow for this event, which implies that perhaps the Euro/GFS Operational model runs, above, are outliers.
  • In addition, the Euro-AIFS (the AI version of the Euro, which has been quite accurate this winter) is showing about 3-5" for the area.
  • Note that snow ratios greater than 10:1 would be favored if we have the colder solutions, but not if the warmer solutions, like the CMC verify, which could decrease ratios; also even in a cold solution high ratios aren't a given if we don't get good dendritic growth aloft, which is a major key to high ratios.

Going to be very difficult to make a forecast with that kind of spread. FWIW, Lee Goldberg on Channel 7 was discussing (not a forecast) the possibility of a 1-3" event, especially S of 78 and towards the coast with a bit more possible, but also less if the storm stays further off the coast. And the NWS-Philly, in their discussion earlier, were thinking along the lines of a general 1-2" event for our region, although that's also not an official forecast. The AmericanWx thread on this event is linked below - lots of discussion and maps.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...22-focused-inauguration-day-and-21st/page/13/

Let's get back to what the global models show at 12Z; not showing the meso/regional models like the NAM or RGEM as they're still out of range; will keep this updated as they come out...

• ICON much snowier than 0Z, showing a general 3-5" for the region (Philly-NJ-NYC)
• GFS much snowier than 0Z, showing a general 3-6" for the region
• CMC very similar to 0Z, although did move the snow/mix line SE a bit, now showing the 6" line 5-10 miles NW of the NJTPK and the 1" line about 20 miles SE of the TPK (with 2-4" along the TPK) - very steep gradient due to rain/mix along and SE of 95.
• The UK is slightly snowier, showing a general 3-5" for the region
• The Euro is a bit less snowy, showing a general 1-2" for the region
• Note that all but the CMC (the only one showing rain/mix, except maybe at the coast for the others to start) are generally <32F for the duration with falling temps into the 20s during the snowfall, which could lead to elevated snow/liquid ratios (maybe 12-15:1 - same mass, more depth) if those temp verify - and if the snow crystal growth aloft is good (too early to make that assumption, though, so all of the snowfalls I quoted above are at 10:1 ratios.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Yes, they were quite skeptical at 4 am. They won't be if the 12Z global models come in hot, like the first one just did with the ICON showing much more snow than previous runs (a general 3-5"). We'll know in about 2 hours...

No snow please.

Plans to visit the Lakota Wolf Center for some father-daughter time on Sunday.

 

[bac2therac]

Let's get back to what the global models show at 12Z; not showing the meso/regional models like the NAM or RGEM as they're still out of range; will keep this updated as they come out...

• ICON much snowier than 0Z, showing a general 3-5" for the region (Philly-NJ-NYC)
• GFS much snowier than 0Z, showing a general 3-6" for the region
• CMC very similar to 0Z, although did move the snow/mix line SE a bit, now showing the 6" line 5-10 miles NW of the NJTPK and the 1" line about 20 miles SE of the TPK (with 2-4" along the TPK) - very steep gradient due to rain/mix along and SE of 95.
• The UK is slightly snowier, showing a general 3-5" for the region

the 18z and 0z runs plus tomorrow mornings 2 nests will be the key to the forecast...if general consistency exists over the next 24 hours, going to see more confidnet forecasts for moderate type event here

 

[bac2therac]

Let's get back to what the global models show at 12Z; not showing the meso/regional models like the NAM or RGEM as they're still out of range; will keep this updated as they come out...

• ICON much snowier than 0Z, showing a general 3-5" for the region (Philly-NJ-NYC)
• GFS much snowier than 0Z, showing a general 3-6" for the region
• CMC very similar to 0Z, although did move the snow/mix line SE a bit, now showing the 6" line 5-10 miles NW of the NJTPK and the 1" line about 20 miles SE of the TPK (with 2-4" along the TPK) - very steep gradient due to rain/mix along and SE of 95.
• The UK is slightly snowier, showing a general 3-5" for the region

The Canadian and RGEM definitely present issues with that rain/snow line, further ticks to the west wouldnt be good for snow lovers

 

[bac2therac]

the euro is way southeast and back to a 1-2 minor event

 

[ClassOf02]

It is so childish.

It’s among the worst things on this board. I really do not understand grown men behaving like this.

 

[RU848789]

Let's get back to what the global models show at 12Z; not showing the meso/regional models like the NAM or RGEM as they're still out of range; will keep this updated as they come out...

• ICON much snowier than 0Z, showing a general 3-5" for the region (Philly-NJ-NYC)
• GFS much snowier than 0Z, showing a general 3-6" for the region
• CMC very similar to 0Z, although did move the snow/mix line SE a bit, now showing the 6" line 5-10 miles NW of the NJTPK and the 1" line about 20 miles SE of the TPK (with 2-4" along the TPK) - very steep gradient due to rain/mix along and SE of 95.
• The UK is slightly snowier, showing a general 3-5" for the region
• The Euro is a bit less snowy, showing a general 1-2" for the region
• Note that all but the CMC (the only one showing rain/mix, except maybe at the coast for the others to start) are generally <32F for the duration with falling temps into the 20s during the snowfall, which could lead to elevated snow/liquid ratios (maybe 12-15:1 - same mass, more depth) if those temp verify - and if the snow crystal growth aloft is good (too early to make that assumption, though, so all of the snowfalls I quoted above are at 10:1 ratios.

Based on the 12Z model suite showing pretty good consensus (much better than at any earlier timepoint) for at least a 1-3" snowfall with 3-5" being very possible and <1" still being possible, but less likely as no model shows that, other than the CMC for SE of 95 (although that doesn't mean the models couldn't continue trending stronger and NW until they resemble the CMC), I'm nearly certain that the NWS and other forecasters will start talking up snowfall possibilities more shortly. I'm guessing the NWS, which doesn't make big changes based on one model suite (and they shouldn't) won't jump completely on 2-4/3-5" amounts but will at least say that 1-3" is looking like a decent bet - at this time. We'll see of course. We're still ~72 hours from the start of the event, so changes are still possible, including significant ones, although changes become less likely as we near any event.

Edit: I tend to not post snow maps this far out, as they're going to change and they clutter up the thread and can be misleading, but if folks want to see the maps, they're usually on the AmericanWx thread, linked below, or guests can see them, I believe, on Pivotal.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...22-focused-inauguration-day-and-21st/page/17/

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

 

[RU848789]

No snow please.

Plans to visit the Lakota Wolf Center for some father-daughter time on Sunday.

Wouldn't snow make that kind of fun? Especially if it's not a big snowfall? Just wondering. How old is your daughter? Pretty unlikely we don't see any snow, though, at this point.

 

[Tango Two]

12z GFS shows a plowable snowfall to start the work week. It's very possible. Could still be suppressed South by cold air

 

[RU848789]

im not banned on americanwx so what are you talking about.....if 33 and rain banned me it was because i question climate change policies and they seem to have a free speech issue...do they even have a board anymore

again the ICON is considered a joke by most, yet all of a sudden this year you are referencing it when I really do not recall you paying attention to it

Sorry, you've been 5-posted on AmericanWx at least a few times for your bias and trolling the snow lovers and 33andrain was much tougher on that kind of stuff, so you got banned for that and the climate stuff. Having said that, those sites are largely for snow lovers, so I personally wouldn't have made those decisions as half of the posters on those boards have a major snow bias - but they like the groupthink.

 

[Tango Two]

 

[RU848789]

the 18z and 0z runs plus tomorrow mornings 2 nests will be the key to the forecast...if general consistency exists over the next 24 hours, going to see more confidnet forecasts for moderate type event here

The Canadian and RGEM definitely present issues with that rain/snow line, further ticks to the west wouldnt be good for snow lovers

the euro is way southeast and back to a 1-2 minor event

Agree with all of this, which is why I wouldn't get too excited for snow yet - as DT always says, people need to look for what can go "wrong" with any forecast and it's plenty for this one, like any snow in these parts, where we're so often on the knife's edge between either snow or rain or snow and no snow.

 

[Tango Two]

 

[Tango Two]

Here's the forecast highs, lows and wind chills Tuesday and Tuesday night! We haven't seen this level of cold in several years, so brace yourselves!

 

[iReC89]

Sorry, you've been 5-posted on AmericanWx at least a few times for your bias and trolling the snow lovers and 33andrain was much tougher on that kind of stuff, so you got banned for that and the climate stuff. Having said that, those sites are largely for snow lovers, so I personally wouldn't have made those decisions as half of the posters on those boards have a major snow bias - but they like the groupthink.

what does "5-posted" involve? sounds like an interesting forum rule.