OT: Minor to Moderate Snow (or rain to snow) for Sunday, 1/19? Could also be a whiff or more significant (high uncertainty).
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
People who the mods think don't add value or detract/troll are limited to 5 posts per day rather than completely banned.
One more key 12Z model just came in: the Euro AIFS has a general 3-6" event for the region with temps below 32F to start for most and dropping into the mid-20s. Verification scores for his model have been at or near the top for the past year or so and it has done quite well on a few recent storms and really hasn't wavered on the solution above for the last 48 hours. Doesn't mean it's absolutely right but it should be strongly considered.
As of 1:13 p.m., the NWS has revised its summary to include: " A strong arctic cold front will pass through
Sunday, with a wave of low pressure riding behind it which may produce some snow." But it has not changed the more detailed discussion of Sunday that I quoted above. Saturday, though, has changed to say the following:
"The story of this period will be the relative warmth
(especially as compared to what will be coming in the long
term). Thanks to developing low level southerly flow,
temperatures by Saturday will be slightly above normal with
highs from the mid 30s to upper 40s.
"As the next cold front approaches from the west, precipitation
could move in, primarily in the afternoon and evening. The
precipitation may start as light snow in the Poconos and Lehigh
Valley, but a quick change to rain is expected and rain will be
the dominant precipitation type for Saturday. Total
precipitation amounts will be light, generally one tenth of an
inch or less, and areas where precipitation could start as snow,
snow accumulation is expected to be very light - generally only
a few tenths of an inch."
Sunday, with a wave of low pressure riding behind it which may produce some snow." But it has not changed the more detailed discussion of Sunday that I quoted above. Saturday, though, has changed to say the following:
"The story of this period will be the relative warmth
(especially as compared to what will be coming in the long
term). Thanks to developing low level southerly flow,
temperatures by Saturday will be slightly above normal with
highs from the mid 30s to upper 40s.
"As the next cold front approaches from the west, precipitation
could move in, primarily in the afternoon and evening. The
precipitation may start as light snow in the Poconos and Lehigh
Valley, but a quick change to rain is expected and rain will be
the dominant precipitation type for Saturday. Total
precipitation amounts will be light, generally one tenth of an
inch or less, and areas where precipitation could start as snow,
snow accumulation is expected to be very light - generally only
a few tenths of an inch."
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Since when i have been 5 posted on Americanwx in the past few years? Bring receipts
I was banned on their political board because they only allow a female? Poster named Wxtrix..aka Trixie to run the board where a strict DEI moderation exists meaning a man is a woman and only posts supporting Democrats are allowed.
Meanwhile you disparaged the owners and mods of this site which normally would get someone a lifetime ban..if you want to go there by being childish and clearly you are here and interjecting another board into this discussion
Couldn’t agree more . It’s why I “ignored” several of the weather trolls (including bac) a while back.
Makes reading the weather threads much more enjoyable - ignore the childish trolling and just view #’s informative posts.
How does someone with 230,000 posts on any message board have time to post enough to get banned on multiple other boards?
There's a few people who fire off A TON of messages on the CE board VERY frequently. It is very interesting how much time some people spend over there but I guess everyone needs a hobby.
I made the mistake of checking it out not too long ago and it was something lol. I guess sometimes they don't get the reactions they crave over there and have to muddy up other threads for attention. Sad. Back to the round table I go.
An update from the NWS as of 3:44 p.m.:
For Sunday into Sunday night, the strong arctic cold front will
cross through the region early Sunday morning advecting a much
colder airmass into the region during the day. As it does so, an
area of low pressure will also be developing over the Deep South
near the tail-end of the arctic front. This area of low pressure
will ride along the frontal boundary and strengthen as it moves off
of the Carolina coastline by Sunday afternoon.
From here, forecast guidance varies greatly and ultimately will
determine what will occur Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. If the
track of the low is close enough to the coast, a large portion of
the region is likely to observe accumulating snowfall (similar to
what the 12Z/GFS depicts). If the track of the low is suppressed
further south and east (similar to the 12Z/ECMWF), then accumulating
snow may only be confined to coastal areas. Whereas if the track of
the low, hugs the immediate coastline, then the most significant
snows will be focused north and west (depicted by the 12Z/Canadian).
Regardless of the variance in global guidance, have seen an increase
in overall QPF values and in snow probs. Thus, there is an increase
in forecaster confidence that accumulating snow is on the table
Sunday afternoon/evening especially since cold air will be
advecting in from the northwest. So with this being said, the
greatest potential for higher accumulations are for areas along
the I-95 corridor and points north and west where the initial
forecast calls for 2-4" of snow through 00Z Monday. Lesser
amounts upwards of 1-2" are forecast near coastal areas through
the same timeframe. Obviously, a lot can change over the next
60-72 hours as we obtain more hi-res/short range forecast
guidance and storm total snowfall covers the `full duration` of
the event, so stay tuned for the latest details to the forecast
over the coming days!
For Sunday into Sunday night, the strong arctic cold front will
cross through the region early Sunday morning advecting a much
colder airmass into the region during the day. As it does so, an
area of low pressure will also be developing over the Deep South
near the tail-end of the arctic front. This area of low pressure
will ride along the frontal boundary and strengthen as it moves off
of the Carolina coastline by Sunday afternoon.
From here, forecast guidance varies greatly and ultimately will
determine what will occur Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. If the
track of the low is close enough to the coast, a large portion of
the region is likely to observe accumulating snowfall (similar to
what the 12Z/GFS depicts). If the track of the low is suppressed
further south and east (similar to the 12Z/ECMWF), then accumulating
snow may only be confined to coastal areas. Whereas if the track of
the low, hugs the immediate coastline, then the most significant
snows will be focused north and west (depicted by the 12Z/Canadian).
Regardless of the variance in global guidance, have seen an increase
in overall QPF values and in snow probs. Thus, there is an increase
in forecaster confidence that accumulating snow is on the table
Sunday afternoon/evening especially since cold air will be
advecting in from the northwest. So with this being said, the
greatest potential for higher accumulations are for areas along
the I-95 corridor and points north and west where the initial
forecast calls for 2-4" of snow through 00Z Monday. Lesser
amounts upwards of 1-2" are forecast near coastal areas through
the same timeframe. Obviously, a lot can change over the next
60-72 hours as we obtain more hi-res/short range forecast
guidance and storm total snowfall covers the `full duration` of
the event, so stay tuned for the latest details to the forecast
over the coming days!
yep definitely nothing set in stone yet at the moment as the models are still not agreeing
This is what bothers me. When I try to carefully read what @RU848789 and you post, you two really don't seem to be disagreeing much on substance. You both are saying (in different ways) what you just said: "nothing set in stone yet as the models are still not agreeing." So it troubles me that you two argue so much. I understand that your and his tones are different. He roots for snow and you (being sensible) don't. (I also find it annoying he roots for snow even though we both know that rooting has no effect on whether it snows or not.) All the same, you two both need to recognize that you end up not very far from each other.
She's almost 8. A little snow would be fun. But it's north of the water gap so travel is an issue
Its similar to when elementary school kids like eachother and go back and forth arguing. Maybe they should meet in person and make amends. Its seriously becoming intolerable, its a shame because I really appreciate #’s insight…. Maybe a Rivals Board boxing event with $$ going to NIL
BTW, the Rams-Eagles playoff game is scheduled for Sunday afternoon. It we have serious snow down here that afternoon, things are going to be *quite* odd.
what we really need is a AI LLM based "ignore" feature that would allow me to just toggle off sh*tposts regardless of who posted it. I don't ignore anyone because anyone can have in interesting post now and again and I wouldn't want to miss it.
Well, it's as if I wrote the NWS discussion, lol. The NWS and other forecasters are now all playing up the snowfall potential as predicted, with the NWS now calling for a general 2-4" snowfall for everyone along and NW of 95 through 7 pm Sunday (noting there will be more to come) except maybe just 1-2" towards the coast (especially SENJ), but also noting that more is possible than that and less if the Euro is right, plus they acknowledge the risk of mixing/rain up to 95 as shown on the CMC. Precip looks like it will start by 1 pm towards Philly/SNJ (where game impacts are looking much more likely than yesterday) and by 3-4 pm in CNJ/NYC and will continue with temps likely falling into the 20s and precip going until 1-3 am Monday. Whatever accumulates will be with us through next week with the bitter cold coming.
Lee Goldberg also has just about everyone at 2-4", with 1-2" south of Toms River and for far NW areas (Poconos/Catskills), but he also noted that there will likely be some 4-6" amounts, most likely from NYC on NE-ward but maybe even back towards CNJ. In addition, the 18Z GFS and ICON came in even snowier than 12Z (a general 4-7" on the GFS and a general 3-6" on the ICON), so a 6" snowfall is now on the table, IMO, given that and the NWS/Lee Goldberg comments and especially considering the likelihood of snow ratios >10:1 has gone up with the snowier solutions, i.e., all of the models showing 2-4/3-6" amounts at 10:1 ratios are showing the potential for 12-14:1 ratios. Edit: the 18Z Euro bumped snowfall amounts up a bit from 1-2" to 1-3" for most.
However, we're still 60+ hours out so even the baseline 2-4" is far from set in stone, but it's looking much more likely than it did last night and we're getting closer to the event when significant changes become less likely (but not impossible). Personally, my biggest "concern" from a snow perspective is the CMC scenario, where the models trend more amped/stronger and more NW, bringing rain/mix into the picture for SE of 95/the coast and maybe even up to 95, holding down accumulations.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2025
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday into Sunday night, the strong arctic cold front will
cross through the region early Sunday morning advecting a much
colder airmass into the region during the day. As it does so, an
area of low pressure will also be developing over the Deep South
near the tail-end of the arctic front. This area of low pressure
will ride along the frontal boundary and strengthen as it moves off
of the Carolina coastline by Sunday afternoon.
From here, forecast guidance varies greatly and ultimately will
determine what will occur Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. If the
track of the low is close enough to the coast, a large portion of
the region is likely to observe accumulating snowfall (similar to
what the 12Z/GFS depicts). If the track of the low is suppressed
further south and east (similar to the 12Z/ECMWF), then accumulating
snow may only be confined to coastal areas. Whereas if the track of
the low, hugs the immediate coastline, then the most significant
snows will be focused north and west (depicted by the 12Z/Canadian).
Regardless of the variance in global guidance, have seen an increase
in overall QPF values and in snow probs. Thus, there is an increase
in forecaster confidence that accumulating snow is on the table
Sunday afternoon/evening especially since cold air will be
advecting in from the northwest. So with this being said, the
greatest potential for higher accumulations are for areas along
the I-95 corridor and points north and west where the initial
forecast calls for 2-4" of snow through 00Z Monday. Lesser
amounts upwards of 1-2" are forecast near coastal areas through
the same timeframe. Obviously, a lot can change over the next
60-72 hours as we obtain more hi-res/short range forecast
guidance and storm total snowfall covers the `full duration` of
the event, so stay tuned for the latest details to the forecast
over the coming days!
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There's a difference and if you can't see it, perhaps you need to look more closely. It's the same tired old formula. I post a ton of what I think is useful information, backed up by links to models, maps, meteorological discussions and such and almost immediately bac and others come in and nitpick every detail calling me biased and saying or implying I have no idea what I'm doing, so yeah, I get a bit annoyed and give some heat back and then we're off, but none of that happens without him/them starting it.
Also, fwiw, I've been absolutely right in this thread, so far, with regard to where the models are taking us (including caveats of uncertainty and how we can't be truly sure what will happen yet) and predicting what the pros at the NWS and folks like Lee Goldberg would say in their forecasts. I've been able to do that a lot over the years (but nowhere near always), so i think I do know what I'm doing even if I make mistakes sometimes, like anyone can when it comes to weather.
I even complimented bac in this thread on his several comments regarding the models and the risks to a snowy solution and I regularly compliment him on his bracketology threads, which are great. But I don't know that he has ever said anything positive about a weather post of mine when there are more than a few opportunities to do so. Oddly, though, we're often 100% aligned on RU sports and almost never bicker on those topics. It's not that I'm fishing for compliments, as I get a ton of positive feedback here, on FB and other boards and from my email list, but it would be nice if there were less snarky comments which lead to threads being derailed; as an aside, this is the only place where such cat fights occur around my weather threads/posts. And we haven't even been visited yet by the real trolls, lol, but I've gotten much better at ignoring them, at least while a thread is very active, as all of this back and forth is a distraction.
Anyway, my apologies to folks for not always being able to ignore the digs and my part in the distractions.
He and Jeff Smith on Channel 7 are my favorites - they're very good and well-respected by the pros. Nick Gregory is also very good.
lol, get to work on that app. I've also never ignored anyone for the same reason.
lol the ego... you said....I HAVE BEEN ABSOLUTELY RIGHT IN THIS THREAD SO FAR WHERE THE MODELS ARE TAKING US BUT I WILL ALSO BE RIGHT IF IT DOESNT HAPPEN BECAUSE I SAID IT MIGHT NOT HAPPEN
do you realize how you come across
and its not my problem if you cannot grow a thicker skin about being called out over the use of the ICON model
Light snow fall all day in Jim Thorpe. Great trail run this morning. Multiple food and drink stops since. Awesome day.
Wasn't he right with the c word too.? Anyways Lee Goldberg said 2-4 and maybe more North and east of the city he didn't mention anything about central New Jersey getting more
They don't hold a candle to Amy Freeze. Don't know what happened to her. She moved to Fox weather, but I don't watch that channel. You don't need to mansplain to me about her. She was fun to watch, and better looking than Lloyd Lindsay Young.
OH no!
NWS:
Good Evening! With today's system starting to wind down, we wanted to call your attention to additional winter hazards we're monitoring for later this weekend into next week:
1) Sunday snow potential - There is increasing potential for a low pressure system to bring accumulating snow to at least parts of the area for Sunday into Sunday night. There is uncertainty, however, regarding the strength and track of the system. If it tracks off the coast not too far to our south, a large portion of the area, including metro Philly, could see significant snowfall. A track farther south and east would result in less snowfall while a track right along the coast could bring significant snowfall to areas north and west of the urban corridor while areas farther south and east see mainly rain.
2) Extreme cold - Regardless of what happens Sunday into Sunday night, there is high confidence a bitter cold air mass will move into the area by early next week. By Tuesday morning, lows will be at least down into the single digits (sub zero expected in the southern Poconos) with daytime highs only in the single digits (north) and teens (south). Only a gradual moderation is expected beyond this time. This will result in impacts to people, animals, and potentially even infrastructure. Impacts could include freezing water pipes and high demand for heating energy.
Monitor weather.gov/phi for the latest forecasts.
Good Evening! With today's system starting to wind down, we wanted to call your attention to additional winter hazards we're monitoring for later this weekend into next week:
1) Sunday snow potential - There is increasing potential for a low pressure system to bring accumulating snow to at least parts of the area for Sunday into Sunday night. There is uncertainty, however, regarding the strength and track of the system. If it tracks off the coast not too far to our south, a large portion of the area, including metro Philly, could see significant snowfall. A track farther south and east would result in less snowfall while a track right along the coast could bring significant snowfall to areas north and west of the urban corridor while areas farther south and east see mainly rain.
2) Extreme cold - Regardless of what happens Sunday into Sunday night, there is high confidence a bitter cold air mass will move into the area by early next week. By Tuesday morning, lows will be at least down into the single digits (sub zero expected in the southern Poconos) with daytime highs only in the single digits (north) and teens (south). Only a gradual moderation is expected beyond this time. This will result in impacts to people, animals, and potentially even infrastructure. Impacts could include freezing water pipes and high demand for heating energy.
Monitor weather.gov/phi for the latest forecasts.
Been snowing lightly off and on for a few hours and we have a decent coating of about 1/4" on all surfaces, given how cold it's been. Could be some slick spots out there. Trenton with 1/2".
I generally hate your back and forth in the weather threads, but this made me 😂 😂
"a bit annoyed" might win today's prize for understatement of the day. You *and* @bac2therac need to develop thicker skins. If you feel you must respond to him, take the high road. Remember: someone who is right has no need to lose his temper or show annoyance. Just be calmly reasonable. When you're not, you're showing that you are sensitive to criticism, which (unfortunately) brings out all the dingbats who get their kicks annoying people. As for feeling un-praised, well, lots of us praise you and it's not a big deal if he doesn't. You can't please all the people all the time.
I want to emphasize that I benefit greatly from your discussions (that's why I read threads like this) and that *everything* I say here is equally applicable to @bac2therac .
Best wishes!
Well, it's as if I wrote the NWS discussion, lol. The NWS and other forecasters are now all playing up the snowfall potential as predicted, with the NWS now calling for a general 2-4" snowfall for everyone along and NW of 95 through 7 pm Sunday (noting there will be more to come) except maybe just 1-2" towards the coast (especially SENJ), but also noting that more is possible than that and less if the Euro is right, plus they acknowledge the risk of mixing/rain up to 95 as shown on the CMC. Precip looks like it will start by 1 pm towards Philly/SNJ (where game impacts are looking much more likely than yesterday) and by 3-4 pm in CNJ/NYC and will continue with temps likely falling into the 20s and precip going until 1-3 am Monday. Whatever accumulates will be with us through next week with the bitter cold coming.
Lee Goldberg also has just about everyone at 2-4", with 1-2" south of Toms River and for far NW areas (Poconos/Catskills), but he also noted that there will likely be some 4-6" amounts, most likely from NYC on NE-ward but maybe even back towards CNJ. In addition, the 18Z GFS and ICON came in even snowier than 12Z (a general 4-7" on the GFS and a general 3-6" on the ICON), so a 6" snowfall is now on the table, IMO, given that and the NWS/Lee Goldberg comments and especially considering the likelihood of snow ratios >10:1 has gone up with the snowier solutions, i.e., all of the models showing 2-4/3-6" amounts at 10:1 ratios are showing the potential for 12-14:1 ratios. Edit: the 18Z Euro bumped snowfall amounts up a bit from 1-2" to 1-3" for most.
However, we're still 60+ hours out so even the baseline 2-4" is far from set in stone, but it's looking much more likely than it did last night and we're getting closer to the event when significant changes become less likely (but not impossible). Personally, my biggest "concern" from a snow perspective is the CMC scenario, where the models trend more amped/stronger and more NW, bringing rain/mix into the picture for SE of 95/the coast and maybe even up to 95, holding down accumulations.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2025
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday into Sunday night, the strong arctic cold front will
cross through the region early Sunday morning advecting a much
colder airmass into the region during the day. As it does so, an
area of low pressure will also be developing over the Deep South
near the tail-end of the arctic front. This area of low pressure
will ride along the frontal boundary and strengthen as it moves off
of the Carolina coastline by Sunday afternoon.
From here, forecast guidance varies greatly and ultimately will
determine what will occur Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. If the
track of the low is close enough to the coast, a large portion of
the region is likely to observe accumulating snowfall (similar to
what the 12Z/GFS depicts). If the track of the low is suppressed
further south and east (similar to the 12Z/ECMWF), then accumulating
snow may only be confined to coastal areas. Whereas if the track of
the low, hugs the immediate coastline, then the most significant
snows will be focused north and west (depicted by the 12Z/Canadian).
Regardless of the variance in global guidance, have seen an increase
in overall QPF values and in snow probs. Thus, there is an increase
in forecaster confidence that accumulating snow is on the table
Sunday afternoon/evening especially since cold air will be
advecting in from the northwest. So with this being said, the
greatest potential for higher accumulations are for areas along
the I-95 corridor and points north and west where the initial
forecast calls for 2-4" of snow through 00Z Monday. Lesser
amounts upwards of 1-2" are forecast near coastal areas through
the same timeframe. Obviously, a lot can change over the next
60-72 hours as we obtain more hi-res/short range forecast
guidance and storm total snowfall covers the `full duration` of
the event, so stay tuned for the latest details to the forecast
over the coming days!
Summary: A 2-4" snowfall for the region (Philly-NJ-NYC) is starting to look likely on Sunday given improving model consensus on that outcome. 4-6" amounts have been seen on some models and no models are showing significant areas <2" (other than the CMC which is an outlier; see below), so it's looking like 4-6" is still on the table as is 1-2", but likely not less than that or more than 6". Precip starts in the 1-3 pm timeframe for most (1 pm towards Philly/SNJ, 3 pm for CNJ and towards NYC) with temps around 32F to start, but dropping quickly into the 20s for most of the storm, which will likely be over by 2-4 am on Monday. Accumulations are likely on all untreated surfaces, so road conditions will go downhill quickly and could still be difficult on Monday morning and with temps in the deep freeze after that for several days, it'll look like deep winter here.
And huge win for RU tonight!
Details: The 18Z models had no surprises/major changes vs. 12Z (just minor differences), so let's get right to the 0Z runs tonight and there were mostly minor changes for the models, except that the Euro went from a 1-2" snowfall to a 2-4" snowfall for most. So we now have every 0Z model showing 2-4" or 3-6" amounts for just about everyone (Philly-NJ-NYC), except for the CMC which still shows 6"+ just NW of 95 and a lot less towards the coast, but it's clearly an outlier. Outliers have been right before, although not that often. Details below in model order they come out.
Based on us now having 3 straight model suites showing at least decent consensus and better consensus now at 0Z than it was at 12Z earlier today, confidence is certainly higher in most of our area getting a 2-4" snowfall, with a 3-6" event also very possible. More than 6" for anyone is pretty unlikely, just like <1" is now very unlikely for anyone, unless the CMC scores a huge outlier coup. However, that's not how mets put together forecasts, so we should expect the NWS to probably come out with maps showing 2-4" for most with maybe some 3-5" spots and possibly 2" or less at the coast. This wouldn't be too far off what Lee Goldberg is still predicting, i.e., 2-4" for everyone, with 4-6" for points NE of NYC. We're now within ~60 hours of the start of the event, so changes are still possible, but significant changes are becoming less likely.
- The ICON showed a bit less precip/snow than 12Z, with a general 3-4" for everyone.
- The GFS was a bit snowier than 12Z, showing 4-7" for just about everyone (highest amounts towards the coast)
- The CMC again showed 6"+ starting on a SW to NE line about 5-10 miles NW of the TPK with 2-4" along the TPK and <1" just 10-15 miles SE of the TPK and nada SE of there to the coast. Very steep gradient.
- However, the CMC ensemble mean is much further SE than the Op with 3-5" NW of 95, but 1-3" SE of 95 to the coast, implying the Op might be a bit of NW outlier relative to its own ensemble mean, which happens sometimes.
- The UK is similar to 12Z with a general 3-5" event for most, except 2-3" near the coast, due to less precip falling (not rain)
- And finally, the Euro is a bit snowier than 12Z, showing a 2-4" event for most, except 1-2" near the coast, due to less precip (not rain), which is similar to the UK.
- Note that all but the CMC (the only one showing rain/mix) are still generally <32F for the duration with falling temps into the 20s during the snowfall, which could lead to elevated snow/liquid ratios (maybe 12-15:1 - same mass, more depth) if those temp verify - and if the snow crystal growth aloft is good, although it's too early to make that assumption, so all of the snowfalls I quoted above are at 10:1 ratios.
- The Euro AIFS (their new AI model, which has been pretty accurate) shows a 4-6" snowfall for everyone.
- The NAM showed basically no snow, but it's past the end of its useful range (usually best inside 48 hrs and the snow starts around 66 hrs), so the pros are discarding it. Similar thing for the RGEM, which looks almost identical to the CMC (both Canadian models share code). These models will be taken more seriously starting around tomorrow night.
Dan Zarrow First Call. 2-4 most of areas. Maybe up to 4-8 but right now not confident. Could be as low as 1-3 depending on wiggle room of the storm. His map and post will be up after 8am.
With all the models waffling, the consistent range of 1-6 has been there from the start.
6ABC talked about the range this morning but they aren't posting snow falls maps because it's still all over the place.
What has changed from yesterday is the temperature forecast for the start of the Eagles/Rams game is it will now be 32 down from 38 yesterday.
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Summary: A 2-4" snowfall for the region (Philly-NJ-NYC) is starting to look likely on Sunday given improving model consensus on that outcome. 4-6" amounts have been seen on some models and no models are showing significant areas <2" (other than the CMC which is an outlier; see below), so it's looking like 4-6" is still on the table as is 1-2", but likely not less than that or more than 6". Precip starts in the 1-3 pm timeframe for most (1 pm towards Philly/SNJ, 3 pm for CNJ and towards NYC) with temps around 32F to start, but dropping quickly into the 20s for most of the storm, which will likely be over by 2-4 am on Monday. Accumulations are likely on all untreated surfaces, so road conditions will go downhill quickly and could still be difficult on Monday morning and with temps in the deep freeze after that for several days, it'll look like deep winter here.
And huge win for RU tonight!
Details: The 18Z models had no surprises/major changes vs. 12Z (just minor differences), so let's get right to the 0Z runs tonight and there were mostly minor changes for the models, except that the Euro went from a 1-2" snowfall to a 2-4" snowfall for most. So we now have every 0Z model showing 2-4" or 3-6" amounts for just about everyone (Philly-NJ-NYC), except for the CMC which still shows 6"+ just NW of 95 and a lot less towards the coast, but it's clearly an outlier. Outliers have been right before, although not that often. Details below in model order they come out.
Based on us now having 3 straight model suites showing at least decent consensus and better consensus now at 0Z than it was at 12Z earlier today, confidence is certainly higher in most of our area getting a 2-4" snowfall, with a 3-6" event also very possible. More than 6" for anyone is pretty unlikely, just like <1" is now very unlikely for anyone, unless the CMC scores a huge outlier coup. However, that's not how mets put together forecasts, so we should expect the NWS to probably come out with maps showing 2-4" for most with maybe some 3-5" spots and possibly 2" or less at the coast. This wouldn't be too far off what Lee Goldberg is still predicting, i.e., 2-4" for everyone, with 4-6" for points NE of NYC. We're now within ~60 hours of the start of the event, so changes are still possible, but significant changes are becoming less likely.
- The ICON showed a bit less precip/snow than 12Z, with a general 3-4" for everyone.
- The GFS was a bit snowier than 12Z, showing 4-7" for just about everyone (highest amounts towards the coast)
- The CMC again showed 6"+ starting on a SW to NE line about 5-10 miles NW of the TPK with 2-4" along the TPK and <1" just 10-15 miles SE of the TPK and nada SE of there to the coast. Very steep gradient.
- However, the CMC ensemble mean is much further SE than the Op with 3-5" NW of 95, but 1-3" SE of 95 to the coast, implying the Op might be a bit of NW outlier relative to its own ensemble mean, which happens sometimes.
- The UK is similar to 12Z with a general 3-5" event for most, except 2-3" near the coast, due to less precip falling (not rain)
- And finally, the Euro is a bit snowier than 12Z, showing a 2-4" event for most, except 1-2" near the coast, due to less precip (not rain), which is similar to the UK.
- Note that all but the CMC (the only one showing rain/mix) are still generally <32F for the duration with falling temps into the 20s during the snowfall, which could lead to elevated snow/liquid ratios (maybe 12-15:1 - same mass, more depth) if those temp verify - and if the snow crystal growth aloft is good, although it's too early to make that assumption, so all of the snowfalls I quoted above are at 10:1 ratios.
- The Euro AIFS (their new AI model, which has been pretty accurate) shows a 4-6" snowfall for everyone.
- The NAM showed basically no snow, but it's past the end of its useful range (usually best inside 48 hrs and the snow starts around 66 hrs), so the pros are discarding it. Similar thing for the RGEM, which looks almost identical to the CMC (both Canadian models share code). These models will be taken more seriously starting around tomorrow night.
First snowfall maps have been issued from NWS Philly and NYC and they're pretty close to what was discussed above and a bit higher than what Lee Goldberg had forecast last night with a general 3-5" forecast for everywhere in the Philly-NJ-NYC area (with their 4" line very close to 95 from Philly to NYC) except for near the NJ coast, where 1-3" are forecast (due to the likelihood of some rain holding down accumulations) SE of the 3" line which runs from about Manasquan to Alloway in Salem County. This would certainly be the biggest snowfall this season for everyone except for most of SENJ/DE, which got more on 1/6.,
The NWS-Philly discussion, below, details how this is a preliminary forecast and that significant changes are still possible, as we're still 54 hours from the start of the event and there is still model variability as discussed above, which is part of why they have held off on any watches/advisories as they'd like to see more consensus before issuing them (plus the current forecast has most locations just below warning criteria). Lots more models to come. It's also worth noting that the 6Z global models (Euro/GFS/ICON/UK) are fairly similar to what they were last night at 0Z, although the GFS and UK did bump amounts up a bit. although they both show more mixing towards the coast, so the risk of a more CMC-like solution (with heavier snows NW of 95 and mostly rain SE of 95) is still there.
One thing worth noting is that for anywhere that gets a mix of snow and rain, producing a slushy mess, temps will be tumbling through the 20s by Sunday night, so shoveling before then is an absolute must for those folks, as anything not shoveled by then will likely become a permanent frozen mass that will stick around all week given the brutal cold that is coming. Specifically, we'll have highs in the teens Tues/Weds (and 20s Mon, Thurs and Fri) and lows in the single digits to maybe below 0F for NW areas on Tues/Weds/Thurs mornings with even colder wind chills.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
630 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
From here, forecast guidance still varies significantly,
considering it`s only 48-60 hours away. The track and strength
of the surface low will ultimately determine what type of
precipitation our area experiences Sunday into Sunday evening.
If the track of the low is close enough to the coast, a large
portion of the region is likely to observe accumulating snowfall
(similar to what the 00Z GFS and ECMWF depict). If the track of
the low, hugs the immediate coastline, or ends up inland over
the coastal plain, then the most significant snows will be
focused north and west of I-95 (depicted by the 00Z Canadian).
Such a solution would also mean rain for the immediate coast,
and perhaps as far inland as the I-95 corridor. The previous
suppressed solution appears to have fallen out of favor of the
deterministic and probabilistic guidance as of the 00Z suite. So
precipitation appears increasingly likely across much of our
area, but the exact detail still remain unclear based on the
track. Ultimately, the outcome probably lies somewhere between
the first two aforementioned solutions. PoPs have been increased
to 60-70% area wide. We have introduced more mention of rain
for the coast and coastal plain inland to I-95 with this
morning`s forecast update, and increased snowfall amounts a bit
farther inland from there.
So with all of this being said, the greatest potential for
significant accumulations remains for areas along the I-95
corridor and points north and west. Within this zone, forecast
amounts were increased about 1" across the board, and now stand
between 3-5", with locally higher amounts possible as usual.
Lesser amounts upwards of 1-2" remain in the forecast for the
coastal plain, and amounts for the immediate coast were lowered
slightly in light of the increasing potential for some rain to
mix in during the event. The far southern coastal areas such as
Cape May and southern Delaware likely end up with less than 1",
though potential exists for higher accumulations there.
Since warning level snowfall does not currently appear likely to
occur (though this certainly remains possible for some inland
areas), we have not issued any watches at this point. Our
current forecast support mainly a widespread advisory type of
event, but given the relatively low confidence and quickly
changing forecast, we`ll hold of on any advisories for now as
well. Obviously, a lot can change over the next 48 hours as
more hi- res/short range forecast guidance comes into the
picture. Note that the forecast is likely to change, so stay
tuned for the latest details to the forecast over the next
couple days!
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Dammit.
More snow?
My son has baseball training Sunday morning and then both son/daughter have baseball training Sunday night.
Sounds like the morning will be fine.
Sunday night is our town PAL teams so maybe it'll be fine with everyone in town.
Need to go get some salt though.
More snow?
My son has baseball training Sunday morning and then both son/daughter have baseball training Sunday night.
Sounds like the morning will be fine.
Sunday night is our town PAL teams so maybe it'll be fine with everyone in town.
Need to go get some salt though.
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