Apologies if I’m wrong, but I think They’ve certainly been trending a more north and west track. Hence why amounts where it wil be all snow seemed to have gone up slightly from the last few days. This track usually means more warmer temps at the coast, I thought
OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.
- Thread starter RU848789
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Apologies if I’m wrong, but I think They’ve certainly been trending a more north and west track. Hence why amounts where it wil be all snow seemed to have gone up slightly from the last few days. This track usually means more warmer temps at the coast, I thought
the rgem continues to be the outlier and its been very very very consistent in going against all the other models except maybe the nam which finally caught on and now shows an actuall storm with snow but much less to the coast
I just started the snowblower to make sure it runs. Expect nothing now for Hamilton in Mercer county. First time starting in almost 2 years.
Mt Holly disco
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The strong arctic cold front will be approaching from the west on
Saturday night and will cross through the region early on Sunday
morning. With a substantial cold air advection push behind the
front, this will usher in a much colder airmass. As it does so, an
area of low pressure will be developing over the Deep South along
the tail-end of the arctic front. This area of low pressure will
ride along the frontal boundary and deepen as it moves off the coast
near the Virginia/North Carolina border by Sunday afternoon.
From here, forecast guidance has come into better agreement this
afternoon and has shown an overall northwestern shift to the track
of the surface low by most global and ensemble guidance. This will
place the surface low just off the New Jersey coast on Sunday
afternoon. Still expect that the 12Z Canadian/GEM guidance is
underdoing the cold air advection regime on the northwest side of
the low, so suspect that the low will remain just off our coastline
instead of tracking directly over southern New Jersey. Heading into
Sunday night as the low exits, it appears that the deepening surface
low will pass right over or just off to the northwest of the 40N/70W
benchmark. Also, available guidance suggests an overall uptick in
forecast QPF values by nearly 0.1-0.2", especially north and west of
the I-95 corridor. Factoring in rather high snow-to-liquid ratios to
the north and west, there again has been an increase in forecaster
confidence in plowable snowfall for areas northwest of the I-95
corridor. Thus, our forecast this afternoon generally incorporates a
blend of the situation discussed above. Still, this does not mean
that areas south and east, including the Philadelphia metro will see
snow through the entire duration of the event. Some short-range
guidance does depict a subtle warm layer at 850mb so there may be at
least a brief rain/snow mix for areas directly along the I-95
corridor at the onset. For this reason, have kept a rain/snow mix
for these areas through Sunday morning and early afternoon. However,
as the cold air begins to pour into the region as the low departs,
we should see an eventual changeover from rain to rain/snow mix to
all snow even down to the coast by Sunday night.
In coordination with neighboring forecast offices and WPC, have opted
to issue Winter Storm Watches for Sunday morning into Sunday evening
for all of our Pennsylvania Counties except for Delaware,
Philadelphia and Lower Bucks. Also, have issued Winter Storm Watches
for Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, and Morris Counties in New Jersey.
These are the areas which are likely to observe warning level
snowfall with lesser amounts expected elsewhere. In terms of
amounts, generally expecting a widespread 5-8" snowfall in the Watch
area with localized amounts up to 10" possible (especially across
the higher terrain). Stepping southeast into and along the immediate
I-95 corridor, expecting a 3-5" snowfall event due to potential
mixing at the onset. Of course, these totals can be higher or lower
depending on the duration of mixed precipitation. Closer to the
coast where prolonged periods of mixing and at times plain rain is
to occur before the changeover, a 1-3" event is expected. As always,
the forecast can vary over the next 36-48 hours as more hi-res
guidance becomes available. So stay tuned for the latest updates to
the forecast through the holiday weekend!
In wake of the system on Sunday night, we`ll start to see the
beginning of the cold air mass take aim at the area. Skies will
begin to gradually clear late Sunday night into Monday morning, and
with a fresh snowpack in place, this should result in low
temperatures falling into the single digits/teens areawide. With a
stiff northwest wind filling in on the backside of the departing
low, should see wind chills in the single digits for most. Mostly
clear skies will be on tap for Monday as strong Canadian high
pressure builds over the Northern Plains. High temperatures will be
limited to the teens/20s with wind chills primarily in the teens.
Enhanced northwest winds could pose a blowing snow in areas where
heavier snowfall occurs.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The strong arctic cold front will be approaching from the west on
Saturday night and will cross through the region early on Sunday
morning. With a substantial cold air advection push behind the
front, this will usher in a much colder airmass. As it does so, an
area of low pressure will be developing over the Deep South along
the tail-end of the arctic front. This area of low pressure will
ride along the frontal boundary and deepen as it moves off the coast
near the Virginia/North Carolina border by Sunday afternoon.
From here, forecast guidance has come into better agreement this
afternoon and has shown an overall northwestern shift to the track
of the surface low by most global and ensemble guidance. This will
place the surface low just off the New Jersey coast on Sunday
afternoon. Still expect that the 12Z Canadian/GEM guidance is
underdoing the cold air advection regime on the northwest side of
the low, so suspect that the low will remain just off our coastline
instead of tracking directly over southern New Jersey. Heading into
Sunday night as the low exits, it appears that the deepening surface
low will pass right over or just off to the northwest of the 40N/70W
benchmark. Also, available guidance suggests an overall uptick in
forecast QPF values by nearly 0.1-0.2", especially north and west of
the I-95 corridor. Factoring in rather high snow-to-liquid ratios to
the north and west, there again has been an increase in forecaster
confidence in plowable snowfall for areas northwest of the I-95
corridor. Thus, our forecast this afternoon generally incorporates a
blend of the situation discussed above. Still, this does not mean
that areas south and east, including the Philadelphia metro will see
snow through the entire duration of the event. Some short-range
guidance does depict a subtle warm layer at 850mb so there may be at
least a brief rain/snow mix for areas directly along the I-95
corridor at the onset. For this reason, have kept a rain/snow mix
for these areas through Sunday morning and early afternoon. However,
as the cold air begins to pour into the region as the low departs,
we should see an eventual changeover from rain to rain/snow mix to
all snow even down to the coast by Sunday night.
In coordination with neighboring forecast offices and WPC, have opted
to issue Winter Storm Watches for Sunday morning into Sunday evening
for all of our Pennsylvania Counties except for Delaware,
Philadelphia and Lower Bucks. Also, have issued Winter Storm Watches
for Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex, and Morris Counties in New Jersey.
These are the areas which are likely to observe warning level
snowfall with lesser amounts expected elsewhere. In terms of
amounts, generally expecting a widespread 5-8" snowfall in the Watch
area with localized amounts up to 10" possible (especially across
the higher terrain). Stepping southeast into and along the immediate
I-95 corridor, expecting a 3-5" snowfall event due to potential
mixing at the onset. Of course, these totals can be higher or lower
depending on the duration of mixed precipitation. Closer to the
coast where prolonged periods of mixing and at times plain rain is
to occur before the changeover, a 1-3" event is expected. As always,
the forecast can vary over the next 36-48 hours as more hi-res
guidance becomes available. So stay tuned for the latest updates to
the forecast through the holiday weekend!
In wake of the system on Sunday night, we`ll start to see the
beginning of the cold air mass take aim at the area. Skies will
begin to gradually clear late Sunday night into Monday morning, and
with a fresh snowpack in place, this should result in low
temperatures falling into the single digits/teens areawide. With a
stiff northwest wind filling in on the backside of the departing
low, should see wind chills in the single digits for most. Mostly
clear skies will be on tap for Monday as strong Canadian high
pressure builds over the Northern Plains. High temperatures will be
limited to the teens/20s with wind chills primarily in the teens.
Enhanced northwest winds could pose a blowing snow in areas where
heavier snowfall occurs.
Sorry, I was going by the snowfall amounts not really trending NW from last night to this afternoon, but yes, the tracks have shifted a bit NW on some models, which is probably why the NWS is going with bigger snows NW - more precip, high ratios and no mixing. Haven't seen the updated discussion yet, but just guessing.
Summary: Significant update below, with the NWS going very very bullish on snow, especially along/NW of 95 as per the maps below. Also, note that the start time has been moved up a bit to about noon for accumulating snow in CNJ (maybe 1-2 hrs earlier towards Philly and an hour later towards NENJ/NYC), with some very light snow/rain possible before noon. Still major uncertainties as we don't yet have model consensus (especially with the CMC showing little to no snow from 95 SE-ward), so as the NWS said in their discussion, we could still see some substantial forecast changes. Watches for 6" or more are up for the blue counties below.
Details: So, the NWS-Philly is all-in on big snows NW of 95 (color me surprised - thought they'd go with something like 4-6" NW of 95 and 2-4" SE of 95 - was way wrong on that guess) and especially N of 78 with 6-8"/8-12" swaths as per the map below and with 4-6" amounts for the 95 corridor and 1-4" towards the coast; the 4" line is almost exactly along 95 from Philly to Trenton and then bends over towards Sandy Hook while the 2" line is from about LBI to Dover DE.
They've also posted winter storm watches (which means 6" or more) for the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, Upper Bucks, Montco, and Hunterdon/Warren/Morris/Sussex (but not Somerset surprisingly). Looking at their discussion now, they're going on the tracks of some models having shifted NW, higher ratios NW of 95, more precip/banding NW of 95 and much less chance of any mixing with rain NW of 95. Same thing for why the NWS-NYC is more bullish than I expected, below.
The NWS-NYC has also gone with watches for 5-8" for western Union/Essex, Passaic, Bergen and the Hudson Valley/CT and has the rest of NENJ/NYC/LI in their 4-6" swath. Edit: Note that the NWS-NYC map below has been updated as they corrected their errors in their initial map.
In addition, I've added Lee Goldberg's forecast map, which I actually think is more realistic (yes I'm going for the less snowy solution, lol) for everywhere pretty much south of 78, where he has 2-4", with the 4" line going from about Frenchtown to Harlem and he has 4-8" north of that line. It's also worth noting that he does not have any mixing going on anywhere even at the coast, judging by the radar futurcast he showed - if I had to guess, he's going with the GFS model, which is similar to his forecast.
And as mentioned before, especially if you're in an area that gets some mixed precip or rain to snow that makes for slushy wet snow, make sure you shovel before 9-10 pm as temps will be dropping quickly after sunset and anything not shoveled will freeze solid and be hard to dislodge for the next 4-5 days with brutally cold temps.
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See my update - has the snow map of Union County and some discussion of NENJ...
I like Lee is going for widespread 2-4 rather than biting on the gfs
I like Lee's approach as I think the NWS is overdone, but I actually think he's using the 12Z GFS (using 10:1 ratios), as the GFS has 5-8" close to his 4-8" area (only the CMC has that much for NW of 95), but it also has 2-5" close to his 2-4" area. Many forecasters rely on the GFS outside of 48 hrs and then start to use the hi-res/short term models like the HRRR/RAP/NAM-12K inside of 24 hrs, along with their favorite globals. But I also think he's making his own forecast too, since they're not identical, especially towards the coast, where his future radar shows zero rain, while the GFS has rain/mix for several hours at the start for coastal NJ.
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Always seems to be the case with the NW trend. If it's not trending that way yet I always expect it to at some point. Notice there is no Winter Storm Watch for anything south and east. It wouldn't surprise me if the totals get cut back for that area of the map
Wife gave me a ration of shit when I went out to fire up the snowblower. Apparently if it doesn't snow a lot on Sunday-Monday it is my fault.
did worse. Bought a new one on clearance.
Maybe as early as late morning but could hold off to early afternoon..not long duration maybe 8-9 hours
New wife? What does one go for on clearance?
Can't do worse than @koleszar . Has a "new" snowblower purchased 3 or more years ago yet to see action. His snowblower will never be RU Athletics Director!
Summary: Significant update below, with the NWS going very very bullish on snow, especially along/NW of 95 as per the maps below. Also, note that the start time has been moved up a bit to about noon for accumulating snow in CNJ (maybe 1-2 hrs earlier towards Philly and an hour later towards NENJ/NYC), with some very light snow/rain possible before noon. Still major uncertainties as we don't yet have model consensus (especially with the CMC showing little to no snow from 95 SE-ward), so as the NWS said in their discussion, we could still see some substantial forecast changes. Watches for 6" or more are up for the blue counties below.
Details: So, the NWS-Philly is all-in on big snows NW of 95 (color me surprised - thought they'd go with something like 4-6" NW of 95 and 2-4" SE of 95 - was way wrong on that guess) and especially N of 78 with 6-8"/8-12" swaths as per the map below and with 4-6" amounts for the 95 corridor and 1-4" towards the coast; the 4" line is almost exactly along 95 from Philly to Trenton and then bends over towards Sandy Hook while the 2" line is from about LBI to Dover DE.
They've also posted winter storm watches (which means 6" or more) for the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, Upper Bucks, Montco, and Hunterdon/Warren/Morris/Sussex (but not Somerset surprisingly). Looking at their discussion now, they're going on the tracks of some models having shifted NW, higher ratios NW of 95, more precip/banding NW of 95 and much less chance of any mixing with rain NW of 95. Same thing for why the NWS-NYC is more bullish than I expected, below.
The NWS-NYC has also gone with watches for 5-8" for western Union/Essex, Passaic, Bergen and the Hudson Valley/CT and has the rest of NENJ/NYC/LI in their 4-6" swath. Edit: Note that the NWS-NYC map below has been updated as they corrected their errors in their initial map.
In addition, I've added Lee Goldberg's forecast map, which I actually think is more realistic (yes I'm going for the less snowy solution, lol) for everywhere pretty much south of 78, where he has 2-4", with the 4" line going from about Frenchtown to Harlem and he has 4-8" north of that line. It's also worth noting that he does not have any mixing going on anywhere even at the coast, judging by the radar futurcast he showed - if I had to guess, he's going with the GFS model, which is similar to his forecast.
And as mentioned before, especially if you're in an area that gets some mixed precip or rain to snow that makes for slushy wet snow, make sure you shovel before 9-10 pm as temps will be dropping quickly after sunset and anything not shoveled will freeze solid and be hard to dislodge for the next 4-5 days with brutally cold temps.
Ok, time for the 0Z model suite summary and generally, the global models held serve or increased snowfall a bit with the Euro (bumped up a bit), UK (similar to 12Z), GFS (similar to 12Z), and ICON (bumped up snowfall a decent amount vs. 12Z) continuing to show moderate to significant snow (what I would call 2-4" to 4-8") for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region with the lowest amounts towards the coast, especially SENJ and the highest amounts typically NW of 95. And the CMC still shows a sharp cutoff in snow with little to no snow SE of 95, although it did tick SE a little bit.
There's certainly not anything in the models that argues for a major change in the snowfall forecasts - with the NWS already on the high end, IMO, maybe this just gives them more confidence in their numbers, whereas we might see Lee Goldberg bump his totals up a bit (maybe 3-5"/5-8" instead of 2-4"/4-8"), although he had no change in his map tonight (but he wouldn't have had most of the 0Z data yet). I could also see the NWS maybe adding Somerset to the watch given more confidence in 6" snows there and they may eventually add the next tier, i.e., Middlesex, Mercer and Lower Bucks and maybe more of NENJ and they may also cut totals a bit near the coast, like the UK (and definitely the CMC/RGEM).
We're also getting into the time when the mesoscale/hi-resolution models start showing usefulness and the NAM/NAM-3K are finally starting to look like most of the globals, while the RGEM is just like the CMC (not a surprise, as they share code). Most of the professional meteorologists I've seen think the CMC/RGEM are outliers that should mostly be ignored and nobody has a forecast like the CMC/RGEM.
Anyway, here is the model summary for 0Z tonight and note that I'm now using the Kuchera algorithm snow ratios, since we're getting closer and have more confidence in good snow growth from what I've seen in the column profiles, especially in the dendritic growth zone, combined with temps well below 32F for most/all of the storm (except near the coast); Kuchera isn't perfect, but the 12-13:1 ratios it's showing seem reasonable.
- The ICON showed a general 4-7" for most with the higher amounts NW of 95, except for 2-4" towards the coast (less precip there and lower ratios).
- The GFS is still the snowiest model showing 5-9" for most (with the higher amounts towards 95) and 3-5" towards the coast.
- The CMC shows 6-10"+ for areas 15-20 miles or more NW of 95, dropping quickly to 0-1" along 95 and nada SE of 95 and the RGEM is very similar.
- However, there's also the HRDPS, which is very intriguing as it's the high res version of the meso-RGEM, which shares code with the global CMC (all 3 are Canadian) and it shows a much broader snow field vs. the CMC/RGEM - it still has the 6"+ NW of 95, like the CMC/RGEM, but it doesn't have the very sharp cutoff along/SE of 95 as it shows cold air coming in midway through the storm and has a few inches along and SE of 95, but <1" towards the coast. Many pros think that is indicative of the CMC/RGEM getting something wrong.
- The UK shows a general 4-6" event for most, except 2-4" close to the coast, due to less precip falling and rain early on
- Edit - had the wrong info for the UK a few hours ago when I posted this (was looking at the 12Z run and missed that the 0Z run had rain for awhile near the coast).
- And finally, the Euro bumped up a bit, although it's still the least snowy model, as it's showing a general 3-5" event, except for 1-3" towards the coast, due to less precip, not rain.
- The Euro AIFS (their new AI model, which has been pretty accurate) is showing a general 5-8" snowfall for everyone.
- The NAM is finally showing snow, but it's just odd looking with lots of hot spots and low spots randomly showing up; anyway it shows a general 2-4" of snow for everyone with 6"+ well NW...and the NAM-3K (the high res version of the NAM, like the HRDPS is the high res version of the RGEM) shows a general 3-5" event for everyone
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...-may-be-limited-snowfall-of-around-1/page/37/
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Looks like they cut back S and E of 95. So the tick NW continues. By tomorrow it will probably be down to 2” tops for the Trenton/ Mercer area
I like Lee's approach as I think the NWS is overdone, but I actually think he's using the 12Z GFS (using 10:1 ratios), as the GFS has 5-8" close to his 4-8" area (only the CMC has that much for NW of 95), but it also has 2-5" close to his 2-4" area. Many forecasters rely on the GFS outside of 48 hrs and then start to use the hi-res/short term models like the HRRR/RAP/NAM-12K inside of 24 hrs, along with their favorite globals. But I also think he's making his own forecast too, since they're not identical, especially towards the coast, where his future radar shows zero rain, while the GFS has rain/mix for several hours at the start for coastal NJ.
Quick update. The NWS updated snowfall maps are below, as are the News12 and Channel 7 maps. The NWS-Philly didn't make any significant changes for 95 and NW, but did cut back totals from 95 towards the coast more steeply than yesterday's maps, due to their thinking that coastal areas and inland towards 95 will see some rain to start and get less overall precip; the NWS-NYC similarly cut back snow totals for LI relative to yesterday for the same reasons but left NYC/NENJ at the same snow levels. Also, the NWS didn't change any of their watches from 4 pm yesterday. I'm sure at least advisories will go up soon for the counties along 95 and maybe towards the coast. Still expecting a noon start with the heaviest precip from about 3 pm to 9 pm in CNJ (move those times 1-2 hrs earlier towards Philly and 1-2 hrs later towards NYC).
Channel 7 has a much less sharp cutoff towards the coast, as they essentially left their 2-4" forecast all the way to the NJ coast and for all of LI unchanged; they did move their 4" line 10-15 miles north for Bergen/NYC/LI area, but left it unchanged west of Bergen in NJ. News12 is closer to Channel 7 than to the NWS on the forecast from 95 to the coast, having a 1-2" area only close to the coast in Monmouth/Ocean. I was surprised at how aggressive the NWS was in cutting back snow SE of 95 and towards the coast. The area between 95 and the coast could be the battleground between all snow and significant rain (plus less precip) as often occurs in NE winter storms.
Edit: adding in TWC's latest snowfall map, which is still fairly bullish on 95 snows with a general 3-5" with the 3" line being a good 20-25 miles SE of 95 (vs. 5-10 miles SE of 95 for the NWS) and TWC has a solid 1-3" SE of that line all the way to the coast. Not surprised as they tend to follow the GFS/Euro combo, which isn't a bad thing and they've had a pretty good record the last several years, including this year.
Edit 2: adding in the channel 2 snowfall map, which is the snowiest I've seen so far with 3-6" for anyone within 20 miles SE of 95 (where the 3" line is) to 30 miles NW of 95 (where the 6" line is) and 6-10" NW of that 6" line; they also have 1-3" SE of that 3" line for the entire coast SE of a line from about Asbury Park to Lakehurst to Bridgeton in SNJ.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
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Yes the NWS certainly did for NJ and on LI (I just posted their maps), but it's interesting that Channel 7 did not and News12 barely did. If there is even more movement NW of the rain/snow line and the CMC comes close to verifying, then that will end up being one of the biggest "outlier" coups I've ever seen and would be one of the biggest forecasting busts in the 2-3 day timeframe that I've ever seen. We'll see in about 24 hours I guess.
And most of the 6Z models (the GFS, Euro, ICON and UK) all moved NW at least a bit, so that their snowfalls for coastal areas are down to 1-2/2-4" vs. having solid 2-5" last night, as they have more rain/less precip along the NJ coast/LI and towards 95, even, so maybe the NWS at 4 am knew what they were doing in making significant cutbacks SE of 95 to the coast. The RGEM did move decently SE (its 1" line was 15-20 miles NW of 95, but is now along 95), but was already really far NW as we know. Any further significant moves NW and the 95 corridor's snows are at risk.
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I noticed that flipping between channels 4 and 7 in the last half hour. Seems channel 7 is on an island on this one, or they did not get the memo, or they are slow to change their forecast?Quick update. The NWS updated snowfall maps are below, as are the News12 and Channel 7 maps. The NWS-Philly didn't make any significant changes for 95 and NW, but did cut back totals from 95 towards the coast more steeply than yesterday's maps, due to their thinking that coastal areas and inland towards 95 will see some rain to start and get less overall precip; the NWS-NYC similarly cut back snow totals for LI relative to yesterday for the same reasons but left NYC/NENJ at the same snow levels.
Channel 7 has a much less sharp cutoff towards the coast, as they essentially left their 2-4" forecast all the way to the NJ coast and for all of LI unchanged; they did move their 4" line 10-15 miles north for Bergen/NYC/LI area, but left it unchanged west of Bergen in NJ. News12 is closer to Channel 7 than to the NWS on the forecast from 95 to the coast, having a 1-2" area only close to the coast in Monmouth/Ocean. I was surprised at how aggressive the NWS was in cutting back snow SE of 95 and towards the coast. The area between 95 and the coast could be the battleground between all snow and significant rain (plus less precip) as often occurs in NE winter storms.
The updated NWS says for Manasquan zip code less than 0.5 inches for overnight and tomorrow.
I'm stoked for the lower amounts down here in South Monmouth, but I feel sorry for @koleszar 's new snowblower that has never seen action.
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Good news We’ve had enough snow down here in South Jersey to last 5 winters
I love and usually just go by the Mount Holley chart. To me they've always been the simplest yet most detailed and accurate. How accurate would you say they are vs. all the other models you use?
For 25+ years they've been my primary source for weather info/discussions and snowfall maps. However, over the past year or two, they've had some bad misses and odd forecasts, so my confidence is a bit lower, but I still think they're pretty good (but maybe not as good as 5 years ago). Even on this storm, until Thursday afternoon, the NWS was downplaying this storm despite most models showing significant snow for the area, but then Friday morning, with not that much change in the models, they went much higher than I expected in snowfall forecasts and doubled down on that Friday afternoon, going significantly higher - and now have cut back a fair amount SE of 95 this morning.
I was surprised they didn't move upwards more slowly on Thurs/Fri - if they had, perhaps they wouldn't have had to cut back so much this morning - and even there, they seem more aggressive in cutting back towards the coast than most others. They may end up being right on that, but they've cut back more than the models show.
Lastly, they also had that ridiculous FB post saying 0-40" of snow for the last storm - it was meant to be funny, but the NWS shouldn't be doing funny, IMO (and they took it down a few hours later after a firestorm of criticism from most in the profession) - and there have been a lot more discrepancies in snowfall maps at the borders with other offices lately - like just last night, which took a few hours for them to correct.
The big question mark is that I95 area
Rgem/ggem definitely a possibility . Lets see about todays all important 12z runs. I think Numbers is a bit dramatic saying that if it oulled off a coup it would be one of the biggest busts ever in a 2-3 day timeframe..short memory as there have been tons of busts...storms missing or sleetfests
I like a call of 2-5 inches south of 78 down to Trenton that covers the bases fot now and that could be adjusted based on todays 3 runs
Rgem/ggem definitely a possibility . Lets see about todays all important 12z runs. I think Numbers is a bit dramatic saying that if it oulled off a coup it would be one of the biggest busts ever in a 2-3 day timeframe..short memory as there have been tons of busts...storms missing or sleetfests
I like a call of 2-5 inches south of 78 down to Trenton that covers the bases fot now and that could be adjusted based on todays 3 runs
Its a noonish to 9 pm timeframe...i think the HRRR starts things earlier and sometimes that happens. Not really a long duration event and might lose a bit at start with temps marginal before the cold air is pulled in
Wtf???? State has salt trucks parked in lots and along 202 in Branchburg. Are they planning on salting the rain or are they on the clock until tomorrow?
Only one model shows all rain in Freehold with most showing 2-4" (or more), so I'd expect 2-4" starting likely as rain and then mixing with and changing to snow. I'd put your possible range at 1" to 6" though, depending on the actual track and banding. You'll get a complete refund if I'm wrong, lol.
Yeah, salting today would be pretty dumb, as everyone outside of Sussex County is getting rain today, albeit light rain.
The RGEM is finally coming back to reality, moving SE towards the other models (these are the runs since yesterday at 18Z, i.e., late afternoon, with the most recent one being the 12Z today which just came out), most of which have been moving a bit NW, so we're starting to see convergence. Where the snow/rain line ends up is still in question - and it will move during the storm, probably from 95 early on and likely moving towards the coast through the afternoon with maybe everyone snowing in the evening. That's a bit of a guess. Assuming more convergence, the risk of <2-3" for 95 is decreasing.
yeah that was a tick to the southeast
still some areas especially toward the coast borderline
still liking my call of 2-5 for central jersey proper and coating to 2 inches depending where you are on the coast, 5-8 as you move north of 78 to the nw
nam has a bit of a later start time then some of the others but most seem to be in agreement around noon.
still some areas especially toward the coast borderline
still liking my call of 2-5 for central jersey proper and coating to 2 inches depending where you are on the coast, 5-8 as you move north of 78 to the nw
nam has a bit of a later start time then some of the others but most seem to be in agreement around noon.
if you see an ad for me selling the old one, just to be clear, that’s the snowblower. Some things are irreplaceable, others go on Craigslist. Well you know what I mean.
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