That's reasonable, although I'm thinking slightly higher with 3-6" for most of CNJ - I really like the Channel 2 map I posted above and now below. I don't know if I'd change it at all. I also think areas well NW of 95 will be in the 6-10" zone (with most 6-8" but lollipops to 10: in spots with the best banding) factoring in very likely 12-15:1 ratios, based on a cold column and 700mb frontogenetic forcing modeling/good vertical velocities in the snow growth region aloft, producing nice dendrites (plus low winds which won't damage falling crystals). I also like the 3" line ~20 miles SE of 95 and not having anyone below 1" on the coast (I might have had that part at 2-3" at least N of Toms River).
I could see the higher rations in the nw parts...i think that map is a little agressive for including that 6 inches that far south down to philly and interior south jersey and monmouth couny in that 6 inch band?That's reasonable, although I'm thinking slightly higher with 3-6" for most of CNJ - I really like the Channel 2 map I posted above and now below. I don't know if I'd change it at all. I also think areas well NW of 95 will be in the 6-10" zone factoring in very likely 12-15:1 ratios, based on a cold column and 700mb frontogenetic forcing modeling/good vertical velocities in the snow growth region aloft, producing nice dendrites (plus low winds which won't damage falling crystals). I also like the 3" line ~20 miles SE of 95 and not having anyone below 1" on the coast (I might have had that part at 2-3" at least N of Toms River).
12Z model post; will update as they come in...so far, nothing to change my thinking on the storm, which I just posted...The RGEM is finally coming back to reality, moving SE towards the other models (these are the runs since yesterday at 18Z, i.e., late afternoon, with the most recent one being the 12Z today which just came out), most of which have been moving a bit NW, so we're starting to see convergence. Where the snow/rain line ends up is still in question - and it will move during the storm, probably from 95 early on and likely moving towards the coast through the afternoon with maybe everyone snowing in the evening. That's a bit of a guess. Assuming more convergence, the risk of <2-3" for 95 is decreasing.
I think we actually agree, it's just a matter of being explicit. When I see a 3-6" swath, to me that means close to 3" at the SE border and close to 6" at the NW border of the swath, so I don't think the areas you mentioned would get 6".
Should start late morning in Philly and could be moderate accumulating snow by 1-2 pm, making travel challenging, but tailgating fun!
any snizzle type precip would be early, once the storm dynamics strength cold air will be pulled in and its pretty much all snow away from the coast from midafternoon to about 9/10PM....with temps frigid by Monday morning, yeah probably best to work on the snow a couple of times and then do a last cleaning before you go to bed. Low will be 15 in the morning and daytime brutal with highs in the mid 20s but windchills in the low teens with 20 mph winds gusting higher. There figures to be alot of ice around Monday morning and fortunately falls on a holiday for most
Philly New Stations have a noon start and both future radars have it done by 6pm and off the shore by 9:00ish
Quick update. The NWS updated snowfall maps are below, as are the News12 and Channel 7 maps. The NWS-Philly didn't make any significant changes for 95 and NW, but did cut back totals from 95 towards the coast more steeply than yesterday's maps, due to their thinking that coastal areas and inland towards 95 will see some rain to start and get less overall precip; the NWS-NYC similarly cut back snow totals for LI relative to yesterday for the same reasons but left NYC/NENJ at the same snow levels. Also, the NWS didn't change any of their watches from 4 pm yesterday. I'm sure at least advisories will go up soon for the counties along 95 and maybe towards the coast. Still expecting a noon start with the heaviest precip from about 3 pm to 9 pm in CNJ (move those times 1-2 hrs earlier towards Philly and 1-2 hrs later towards NYC).
Channel 7 has a much less sharp cutoff towards the coast, as they essentially left their 2-4" forecast all the way to the NJ coast and for all of LI unchanged; they did move their 4" line 10-15 miles north for Bergen/NYC/LI area, but left it unchanged west of Bergen in NJ. News12 is closer to Channel 7 than to the NWS on the forecast from 95 to the coast, having a 1-2" area only close to the coast in Monmouth/Ocean. I was surprised at how aggressive the NWS was in cutting back snow SE of 95 and towards the coast. The area between 95 and the coast could be the battleground between all snow and significant rain (plus less precip) as often occurs in NE winter storms.
Edit: adding in TWC's latest snowfall map, which is still fairly bullish on 95 snows with a general 3-5" with the 3" line being a good 20-25 miles SE of 95 (vs. 5-10 miles SE of 95 for the NWS) and TWC has a solid 1-3" SE of that line all the way to the coast. Not surprised as they tend to follow the GFS/Euro combo, which isn't a bad thing and they've had a pretty good record the last several years, including this year.
Edit 2: adding in the channel 2 snowfall map, which is the snowiest I've seen so far with 3-6" for anyone within 20 miles SE of 95 (where the 3" line is) to 30 miles NW of 95 (where the 6" line is) and 6-10" NW of that 6" line; they also have 1-3" SE of that 3" line for the entire coast SE of a line from about Asbury Park to Lakehurst to Bridgeton in SNJ.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
Weird, they were on all morning but are off now which is very surprising; I assume they'll go into storm mode early tomorrow...
Great point on clearing anything that's slushy by early evening or else it'll be rock solid for the next week; been talking about that one too. Areas that don't get wet snow, like most NW of 95 and/or N of 78 (and W of 287) likely won't have that issue, per se, as the snow will likely be dry and stay dry as temps nosedive Sunday night. It's gonna get a little chilly, lol.
No, the last major upgrade was 2017. The NAM has been scheduled for decommissioning once the "new and improved" (cough-cough) FV3 dynamical core based models are ready and rumor has it they're still not ready, lol.
I liked the term frontogenesis so much I had to look it up.
Brief (for me) update as I've been out all afternoon. Below are the updated snowfall maps from the NWS (will try to find some others too and add them here) and the map of warnings (in pink)/advisories (in blue). The NWS converted all of the watches to warnings (for 6" or more of snow), but didn't expand the warning area at all. Instead the NWS-Philly added advisories for Lower Bucks, SE Montco, Mercer, Somerset and Middlesex for 3-5" of snow and advisories for Philly, Delaware County, NW Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Salem for 2-4" of snow, while the NWS-NYC added advisories for 3-6" for eastern Union, eastern Essex, Hudson, NYC and all of LI (and southern Westchester/coastal CT).
Was a bit surprised as the 12Z and now 18Z models generally had snowfall increases, especially the 12Z Euro and the 18Z RGEM finally has caved to all of the other guidance and is no longer showing mostly rain for 95 and SE of there. Will be interesting if they up totals again at 4 am if the 18Z/0Z models tonight continue with more modeled snow than the NWS is showing, especially for 95 where they decreased snowfall a little and for 95 SE to the coast where they seem to have a decent amount less than most models especially in SNJ (they at least did increase for Monmouth to 1-2" for the coast and 2-3" inland); interestingly the NWS-NYC bumped up the LI counties by 1" or more and these often see similar amounts as Monmouth for example.
Also, time for my guesstimate for our house in Metuchen: going with 5.1", which is a bit above the model consensus (and my NWS point-and-click forecast is 4.3"), as I'm riding the Euor AIFS, as their AI model has been the best for this storm, by far, at least with regard to having a consistent solution that has barely wavered for 4-5 days.
Edit: I've also included the updated snowfall map from TWC which looks fairly similar to the NWS map (and is a bit of a decrease from this morning) and I'm including the map from EPAWeather, which is the most bullish one I've found (I can hope). The News12 forecast has not changed from what I posted this morning.
https://www.weather.gov/phi
When was the last update. Most of the day today, Sunday/Sunday Night were "less than 1/2 inch" each segment for zip 08736: Now it says:
Read my posts - forecast never should've been that low to begin with and the NWS is playing catchup and just recently upped your area to be in the 2-3" swath and many models are showing 3-5" for you (but a few still show 1-3"). We're getting so close now that this is unlikely to change significantly. I'm nearly certain you'll be under an advisory at 4 am.
Given the increase in snowfall for many models, as well as the broader coverage with more snow and less rain from 95 SE to the coast (at least north of Toms River), I'm expecting the NWS to continue increasing snowfall totals. I'd go for 4-6" within 10-20 miles of 95 from Philly to NYC and for Monmouth County N of 195, with 2-4" for almost all of the rest of NJ, except maybe 1-2" for most of Cape May County and the NJ coast up to LBI. I would also keep the 6-8"+ area NW of 95, but probably move the 6" line SE 10-15 miles to maybe West Chester to New Hope to White Plains and I would have all of LI at 4-6", except eastern Suffolk at 3-4".Let's start the 0Z model thread (all using Kuchera, which seems reasonable with decent snow growth and cold columns along/NW of 95) and now that these model runs are <18 hrs before the event, the mesoscale/high resolution/CAM-allowing (convection) models become much more useful, so will include them here - and they might piss off the Shore crowd, lol, as they're all showing much less rain/mix at the coast, so much more snow. If the globals confirm this, expect to see upward adjustments in forecasts. So here are the meso/high-res/CAM models, which come out faster (they're not global).
- The NAM shows a general 4-6" event for literally everyone except 2-4" for Cape May and 6-8" for NYC and NE-ward
- The NAM 3km (high res) shows a general 3-6" even everywhere except for SENJ south of Toms River, which get 1-3".
- The HRRR shows a 4-6" event for almost everyone, except 2-4" for SENJ south of Toms River
- The RAP shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 2-4" for AC to Cape May.
- The HRW-FV3 (will be the new NAM someday) shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 0-4" for SENJ south of Toms River
- The RGEM shows a general 3-6" from just SE of 95 through the rest of the region to the NW, with 1-3" SE of 95 to the coast and with the 1" line from Toms River to Bridgeton.
- The ICON continues to be the least snowy model with 2-4" near 95, 3-5" NW of 95 and 1-3" SE of 95 with the 1" line from Toms River to Millville.
- The GFS shows 4-7" everywhere - even Cape May gets 3-4".
- The HREF (high-res ensemble forecast, which is one of the best inside 24 hrs) shows 4-6" for everyone (except 2-4" for SENJ south of Toms River) and 6-8" for many a bit NW of 95
- And the CMC's failure is complete as it now shows a general 3-6" for most with 6" or more well NW of 95 and 1-3" for most of SNJ south of Camden to Toms River. I'm glad I stuck to my guns in generally ignoring this outlier model.
- The UK shows a general 3-5" for most with some 6" spots and shows 1-3" SE of a line from Keansburg to Bridgeton (and <1" south of Toms River at the immediate coast).
- And the Euro shows a general 3-6" for most, with 1-3" SE of a line from about Bridgeton to Lakewood (the 3" line).
Edit (10:15 pm): wow, the NWS has already bumped snowfall amounts up a bit along 95 and about 1" cross the board SE of 95 to the coast in NJ and they explain below how this is due to the early 0Z models, as discussed above.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
901 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
-- Changed Discussion --
Meanwhile near the I-95 corridor, this is where the forecast will be
the trickiest in terms of Ptype. With temperatures right around if
not just above freezing here as the precip begins, it may actually
start as rain before turning over to snow as dynamic and
evaporational cooling effects take hold. Then, as the low tracks up
the coast through the day, a mix with or change back to rain or
sleet may occur in the afternoon for a time before any mixing flips
back to snow before ending Sunday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory
was issued for this area. However, the early signals from the
00Z guidance suite tonight suggests that the amplification will
be less than previously anticipated so this would result in a
potentially weaker system, leading to more snow further south
and east. With this being said, have subtly upped forecast
numbers by about an inch or so across the coastal plain early
this evening. Considering this, may have to further expand
Winter Weather Advisories/Winter Storm Warnings further south
and east, but we`ll leave that for the mid-shift to handle in
the coming hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Let's start the 0Z model thread (all using Kuchera, which seems reasonable with decent snow growth and cold columns along/NW of 95) and now that these model runs are <18 hrs before the event, the mesoscale/high resolution/CAM-allowing (convection) models become much more useful, so will include them here - and they might piss off the Shore crowd, lol, as they're all showing much less rain/mix at the coast, so much more snow. If the globals confirm this, expect to see upward adjustments in forecasts. So here are the meso/high-res/CAM models, which come out faster (they're not global).
- The NAM shows a general 4-6" event for literally everyone except 2-4" for Cape May and 6-8" for NYC and NE-ward
- The NAM 3km (high res) shows a general 3-6" even everywhere except for SENJ south of Toms River, which get 1-3".
- The HRRR shows a 4-6" event for almost everyone, except 2-4" for SENJ south of Toms River
- The RAP shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 2-4" for AC to Cape May.
- The HRW-FV3 (will be the new NAM someday) shows a 4-7" event for everyone, except 0-4" for SENJ south of Toms River
- The RGEM shows a general 3-6" from just SE of 95 through the rest of the region to the NW, with 1-3" SE of 95 to the coast and with the 1" line from Toms River to Bridgeton.
- The ICON continues to be the least snowy model with 2-4" near 95, 3-5" NW of 95 and 1-3" SE of 95 with the 1" line from Toms River to Millville.
- The GFS shows 4-7" everywhere - even Cape May gets 3-4".
- The HREF (high-res ensemble forecast, which is one of the best inside 24 hrs) shows 4-6" for everyone (except 2-4" for SENJ south of Toms River) and 6-8" for many a bit NW of 95
- And the CMC's failure is complete as it now shows a general 3-6" for most with 6" or more well NW of 95 and 1-3" for most of SNJ south of Camden to Toms River. I'm glad I stuck to my guns in generally ignoring this outlier model.
- The UK shows a general 3-5" for most with some 6" spots and shows 1-3" SE of a line from Keansburg to Bridgeton (and <1" south of Toms River at the immediate coast).
- And the Euro shows a general 3-6" for most, with 1-3" SE of a line from about Bridgeton to Lakewood (the 3" line).
Edit (10:15 pm): wow, the NWS has already bumped snowfall amounts up a bit along 95 and about 1" cross the board SE of 95 to the coast in NJ and they explain below how this is due to the early 0Z models, as discussed above.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
901 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2025
-- Changed Discussion --
Meanwhile near the I-95 corridor, this is where the forecast will be
the trickiest in terms of Ptype. With temperatures right around if
not just above freezing here as the precip begins, it may actually
start as rain before turning over to snow as dynamic and
evaporational cooling effects take hold. Then, as the low tracks up
the coast through the day, a mix with or change back to rain or
sleet may occur in the afternoon for a time before any mixing flips
back to snow before ending Sunday evening. A Winter Weather Advisory
was issued for this area. However, the early signals from the
00Z guidance suite tonight suggests that the amplification will
be less than previously anticipated so this would result in a
potentially weaker system, leading to more snow further south
and east. With this being said, have subtly upped forecast
numbers by about an inch or so across the coastal plain early
this evening. Considering this, may have to further expand
Winter Weather Advisories/Winter Storm Warnings further south
and east, but we`ll leave that for the mid-shift to handle in
the coming hours.
-- End Changed Discussion --
Lol, read your posts? You didn't answer my question, which was when did the NWS forecast up the snow total for my Zip code.
Looks like they backed off a little. Your map shows at 3:55am, the one below shows at 4:10am.Summary: Warnings are up for counties in pink, mostly for 4-6" S of 276/195 and for 5-7" for N of 276/195, and advisories are up for counties in blue for 4-6" for Middlesex up to Hudson and for NYC/LI, with advisories for 3-5" for SNJ bordering PA and 2-4" for Monmouth/Ocean. Storm starts around noon (CNJ; 1-2 hrs earlier towards Philly and 1-2 hrs later towards NYC) as mixed precip or snow that melts for the 95 corridor and mostly as rain SE of 95 to the coast, but will be all accumulating snow NW of 95 from the start where temps will be <32F. Storm should be largely over by 10-11 pm for most with the heaviest snow from about 3-9 pm as temps drop below 32F for nearly everyone and into the 20s by evening for all.
One more thing: shovel by the end of the storm, especially if you get slushy snow, as everything will freeze solid soon after that and stay that way for 4-5 days with the coming brutal cold this week. Also, note that some forecasters have a bit more snow than the NWS and some have a bit less, so the NWS looks to be somewhat in the middle.
Details: Ok, the NWS has updated their forecast snow maps as per below and my guesses from around 1 am weren't too far off as the NWS bumped up snowfall forecasts pretty much across the board for the 95 corridor and points SE of there by 1" or more (while keeping the 6-8" forecast for areas well NW of 95) given the snowier 0Z model output, especially from the meso/high-res models, which are now well within their range. The NWS now has 4-6" for the 95 corridor from Wilmington to NYC and has extended the 4" line to about Bridgeton to Long Branch and has also extended the 2" line to about Dover DE to LBI with 1-2" for far SENJ. Similarly, the NWS-NYC expanded the 4-6" amounts for most of LI with 2-4" for eastern Suffolk.
The NWS-Philly also expanded their warnings to include DelCo, Philly, and Montco for 4-6" of snow (the warning criterion for counties S of 276/195 is 5") and to Bucks, Mercer and Somerset (the criterion for counties N of 276/195 is 6") for 5-7" of snow, while pissing me off to no end, lol, by leaving Middlesex under an advisory for 4-6". They also have advisories for 3-5" for Salem, Gloucester, Camden and NW Burlco and for 2-4" for Ocean, Monmouth and SE Burlco. The NWS-NYC has warnings up for western Union, western Essex, Passaic, Bergen and the Hudson Valley in NY/CT north of the Tappan Zee for 5-7", but, like Middlesex, has advisories for 4-6" for eastern Union, eastern Essex, Hudson, NYC/most of LI, southern Westchester and coastal CT. Counties in pink have warnings and counties in blue have advisories.
Finally, note that some of the 6Z models coming out now have backed off a bit on precip/snow having more like 2-4/3-5" amounts for much of the area, but some (including the Euro and GFS which many forecasters rely on) still having 4-7" amounts for most. My guess is the NWS wouldn't back down from snow forecasts based on 6Z (which also doesn't have as complete of a set of data inputs as 0Z/12Z), but will reevaluate after the 12Z models come out, right before the storm starts for most, i.e., between 10 am and noon.
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