It's snowing in Philadelphia for the past hour but nothing is sticking. It's 37 degrees at 12:15.
OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.
- Thread starter RU848789
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It’s been sticking out here on the Main Line. I’m in Wayne and it’s been snowing since 10:30. I already have a fresh coat of white snow on my lawn and it’s just now starting to stick to the patio. 34 degrees as of 12:20pm.
Not true at all. The HREFs, the favored tool of many mets, is showing 4-6" for most (including all of CNJ) with 6-8" in spots towards NYC and NW of 95; and the HRW-FV3 (future NAM) is showing 4-6" for most, while the NAM 3km is a general 3-5".
Personally i think 2-4 is most likely for my area given what alot of the latest runs
A quick thump 4-8 pm
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Just started in Allenwood/Manasquan section of Wall. Raining quite hard. Woo hoo.
Snowin' and a blowin' up top above Boone NC. Expecting 5"-9" and temps plummeting to -20° for a couple nights with windchill factored in.
The RGEM is finally coming back to reality, moving SE towards the other models (these are the runs since yesterday at 18Z, i.e., late afternoon, with the most recent one being the 12Z today which just came out), most of which have been moving a bit NW, so we're starting to see convergence. Where the snow/rain line ends up is still in question - and it will move during the storm, probably from 95 early on and likely moving towards the coast through the afternoon with maybe everyone snowing in the evening. That's a bit of a guess. Assuming more convergence, the risk of <2-3" for 95 is decreasing.
First few flakes just at 12:15 pm; temp is 37F with a dewpoint of 33F, so will obviously take at least an hour or two to get cold enough to accumulate here, as we don't expect the heavier snow until at least 2-3 pm.
Perhaps a bit on the wetter/heavier type of snow (doesn't seem cold enough for fluffy)? The little ones in the neighborhood are hoping for enough for sledding.
what are your sources saying.....this is basically just an appetizer stuff, when the cold air rushes in later we get into the heavier stuff where we thump for 3-4 hours and pick up our biggest accumulations
Yes, the HRRR has been discussed here quite often. It's a a good short range high-resolution model, but is sometimes prone to wild swings. It's best for the next 4-6 hours, which is why it runs every hour.
it hasnt even started...the main show will be from 4-8 in central jersey and maybe 3-7 downtoward Philly
not going to get much accumulations until at least 3....its a very short period of some moderate to heavy snow...just not a dynamic or long lasting system.
2-4" is certainly possible for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and most of CNJ, as is 3-5", but so is 4-6", as there's model support from a few models for each outcome. At this point, like I said earlier, I prefer looking at the radar trends and observations vs. what was modeled to see if the storm is over/under performing and I think it's too early to tell yet, as the coastal low has barely gotten going and we're not supposed to get the bulk of our precip/snow until the 3-4 pm to 9-10 pm timeframe. I'm guessing most along 95 and in CNJ, especially SE of 95 won't see much accumulation until 3-4 pm, except maybe a bit on the grass. But if that's followed by 6 hours of 1/2-1" per hour snow, we'd hit 3-6".
Also, the latest HRRR and RAP jumped back up to 3-5" for most of 95/CNJ when they had a few runs that were more like 2-3/2-4". Both models jump around quite a bit. In addition, the NWS-NYC and Philly just checked in and are sticking with their snowfall forecasts in their discussions from the last hour or so.
Decent forecast - maybe a little less than the NWS, but certainly possible; 5" line goes right over my house, lol (and I predicted 5.1" yesterday).
Looks like a massive dry slot from DC, through Delaware and up to Mercer/Monlouth county.
Ill go with 1-2 inches for South Jersey up through Trenton and out to the coast.
Ill go with 1-2 inches for South Jersey up through Trenton and out to the coast.
34 here, 32 in Hillsborough down the road.
here we go
light snow here and still only sticking to grass but by 3 pm as temps likely cool to 32 or below most places, you will start to see the pavement start to turn white...then we wait for our quick thump
here we go
light snow here and still only sticking to grass but by 3 pm as temps likely cool to 32 or below most places, you will start to see the pavement start to turn white...then we wait for our quick thump
Started about 45 minutes ago as sleet in Freehold area.
Now it’s raining and 36 degrees.
Will get to 33 degrees at 6pm and below 32 degrees at 7pm.
Now it’s raining and 36 degrees.
Will get to 33 degrees at 6pm and below 32 degrees at 7pm.
Is it me or almost all lines setup and split through the major populated areas (i.e. NYC, Trenton, Philly).
I understand the gradient can be extremely sharp up and down the I95 area but I have to think they also put the splits down the most populated areas on purpose sometimes.
New Jersey Snowstorm Update
New Jersey Snowstorm Update
Here's what I'm seeing so far today and what to specifically expect for the rest of today-tonight.
www.weathernj.com
The accumulating snow ends around midnight, with the leading edge of arctic air rushing in quickly in the wake of the storm. Wind chills towards daybreak on Monday will approach zero.
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