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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

im always the first to call bust but the heavy part of the storm was never supposed to be until 4-8 pm and then quickly out. For the storm to verify its going to have to rely on near inch an hour rates during that time but race against time

never bought into the absurd 5-8 inch amounts for my area...what model was even showing that...the gfs? and even they backed off thats all...we werent getting high ratios in central jersey because it simply wasnt going to be cold enough, much of the early snow wasnt going to stick

the downplaying of the less snowier models was odd to me.


this may be a bust but its still a little early.... i would say down 14-3 at halftime...at 5 o clock i will give the end of 3rd quarter score
Whose down Eagles or Rams?
 
latest hrrr
snku_acc-imp.us_ne.png
 
It's not a complete bust - snow is still coming, but it looks like 95 and SE of there missed getting much before 4:30 pm, so will likely get a bit less, but it's not going to be anywhere near a shut out.

the coastal hasn’t even formed. Silly to call it a bust already
 
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Radar from PA finally filling in - aimed at most of CNJ (mercer/Somerset/Middlesex at least) starting very soon in Mercer first and SNJ is starting to get snow), including 95 and SE of 95 a bit...
 
Radar from PA finally filling in - aimed at most of CNJ (mercer/Somerset/Middlesex at least) starting very soon in Mercer first and SNJ is starting to get snow), including 95 and SE of 95 a bit...
Good. Now I'm cheering on 4-5"+ more to make my case...I'm regretting bailing-out so far.
 
Heavy sleet here in southern hunterdon, in this new band. Zero snow. Would love to see a sounding above my house as it’s 29.5 at the surface.
 
I still think its too high for somerset

NJZ001-007>010-015-PAZ054-055-062-200600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250120T0600Z/
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Carbon-Monroe-
Northampton-
Including the cities of Somerville, Easton, Flemington,
Morristown, Bethlehem, Jim Thorpe, Newton, Stroudsburg,
Washington, and Trenton
331 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 4 and 6
inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and northwest New Jersey
and east central and northeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are likely
at times this afternoon and evening. Temperatures are expected to
fall into the teens tonight and remain below freezing for several
days. As a result, icy and slippery conditions may persist even
after precipitation has ended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ060-061-101>103-105-200600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250120T0600Z/
Berks-Lehigh-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Perkasie, Honey Brook, Reading,
Allentown, Chalfont, Kennett Square, Collegeville, West Chester,
Oxford, and Pottstown
331 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 3 and 5
inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are likely
at times this afternoon and evening. Temperatures are expected to
fall into the teens tonight and remain below freezing for several
days. As a result, icy and slippery conditions may persist even
after precipitation has ended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

PAZ070-071-104-106-200600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250120T0600Z/
Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Doylestown, Philadelphia, Media,
Morrisville, Lansdale, and Norristown
331 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations between 2 and 4
inches.

* WHERE...Delaware, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, and
Philadelphia Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of some light rain and snow with even
some sleet this afternoon will change to all snow late afternoon
into the evening in and around areas closest to Interstate 95.
Snowfall rates of an inch per hour could develop at times.
Temperatures are expected to fall well below freezing tonight and
remain there for several days. As a result, icy and slippery
conditions may persist even after precipitation has ended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

DEZ001-MDZ012-015-NJZ016>019-200600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-250120T0600Z/
New Castle-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-
Including the cities of Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly,
Centreville, Pennsville, Chestertown, Camden, Glassboro, and
Wilmington
331 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations up to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, northeast Maryland, and
southern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are expected to fall into the
teens Sunday night and remain below freezing for several days. As
a result, icy and slippery conditions may persist even after
precipitation has ended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ012>014-020-027-200600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-250120T0600Z/
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Southeastern
Burlington-
Including the cities of Freehold, Wharton State Forest, Sandy
Hook, New Brunswick, and Jackson
331 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations between 1 and 3 inches.

* WHERE...Eastern Monmouth, Western Monmouth, Middlesex, Ocean, and
Southeastern Burlington Counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures are expected to fall into the
teens Sunday night and remain below freezing for several days. As
a result, icy and slippery conditions may persist even after
precipitation has ended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.
 
It's not a complete bust - snow is still coming, but it looks like 95 and SE of there missed getting much before 4:30 pm, so will likely get a bit less, but it's not going to be anywhere near a shut out.
Starting to get that busty feeling.
 
absurd that dan zarrow had me and part of central jersey in the 5-8 band, ditto for epa weather with the 6-9...this is a fast mover with little dynamics
I thought those were a bit high after seeing today's models, but I still think the NWS forecast of 5-7" for you might verify, although maybe on the low side; your updated warning still calls for 4-6" additional snow. I don't think they're backing down on their forecast or at least not yet, based on that, but haven't seen updated maps/discussion yet.
 
I thought those were a bit high after seeing today's models, but I still think the NWS forecast of 5-7" for you might verify, although maybe on the low side; your updated warning still calls for 4-6" additional snow. I don't think they're backing down on their forecast or at least not yet, based on that, but haven't seen updated maps/discussion yet.
there is no model that show me getting 7 none
 
I just plowed something like 2-3 inches of wet sloppy snow off my drive. It turned to a light drizzle. Thinking the 4-7 pm dump wasn't coming.

But just went back to steady light flakes. So we'll see. That's the report from South hunterdon county near the river fwiw.
 
yes they did nudge things down but this map doesnt make sense since they include New Brunswick with shore locations of 1-3 inches which is bizarre in itself..bad job by them..come on man

StormTotalSnow.jpg
 
I just plowed something like 2-3 inches of wet sloppy snow off my drive. It turned to a light drizzle. Thinking the 4-7 pm dump wasn't coming.

But just went back to steady light flakes. So we'll see. That's the report from South hunterdon county near the river fwiw.
Have you had any sleet? In ringoes we’ve all sleet for about 40 min, including in this heavier band
 
some early reports

03:00 pm EST - 1/19/2025East Rockhill Twp, PA2.1
02:51 pm EST - 1/19/2025Byram Twp, NJ2
02:00 pm EST - 1/19/20251 ESE Fricks, PA1.5
02:45 pm EST - 1/19/2025Norristown, PA1.1
02:42 pm EST - 1/19/2025Milford Twp, PA1
02:05 pm EST - 1/19/2025Sparta, NJ0.8
 
Radar from PA finally filling in - aimed at most of CNJ (mercer/Somerset/Middlesex at least) starting very soon in Mercer first and SNJ is starting to get snow), including 95 and SE of 95 a bit...
It did pick up in Mercer. Sleet mixed with snow. It’s still gonna under perform here IMO
 
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Here in Cherry Hill, it has started to sleet. There is no snow on the ground. The temperature is 34 degrees. Yet the NWS has not revised its forecast for 3 to 5 inches here., nor has its forecast discussion changed significantly -- it's not as though they are saying the storm is starting later. FWIW, my zip code is in the advisory area of Camden County, not the portion covered by the warning.

I don't mind not getting snow. I do mind the NWS not recognizing what is going on.
 
WTF is Mt. Holly doing? Who would issue a map starting 3 hours from now at 7 pm? Maybe a glitch? Still waiting for an updated map and discussion from Mt. Holly, but NWS-NYC recently reissued their map with no changes I can see.

StormTotalSnowWeb.png


OrxbFEP.png
i saw a map for 4-6 from them

looks like they may be trying to cover up major egg on their face....just unbelievable to put a map like that out
 
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It did pick up in Mercer. Sleet mixed with snow. It’s still gonna under perform here IMO
Not getting the warm & fuzzies from this storm, been down on it since it started. Lots of dry air & mixing early, radar not impressing me regardless of the secondary timing (if the radar ain't looking good, the secondary is probably having issues getting it's act together). Trenton & Hamilton were on the doorstep of the 6-8 in line, now we're on the doorstep of the 2-4. Underperformance City, possible transfer to Bust State.
 
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Not getting the warm & fuzzies from this storm, been down on it since it started. Lots of dry air & mixing early, radar not impressing me regardless of the secondary timing (if the radar ain't looking good, the secondary is probably having issues getting it's act together). Trenton & Hamilton were on the doorstep of the 6-8 in line, now we're on the doorstep of the 2-4. Underperformance City, possible transfer to Bust State.
Same here. I’m not expecting much tbh. Haven’t used my snow blower in a few years. Anything less than 4” I usually just shovel. We are over due for a good one. At least I’m working close tomorrow in East Windsor and don’t have to drive up north like usual.
 
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