OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

[gmay8]

I’ve got my daughter’s 4th grade travel hoops game in Manalapan at 5pm. We live about 30 mins east of there, so will need to drive an hour round trip at 4 and at 6. I really hope it’s cancelled, would rather put a fire on and watch the football games.
Also not sure how safe it is driving in sleet/ice/snow. It’s all back roads. Think Manalapan around 4-6 will be ok or ice/mess?

 

[DHajekRC84]

If this is suppose to mix with rain, you think there’s a good chance it will harden overnight with the cold temps? Better off to remove what you can late evening early night?

take one of those extra garbage bags you might have from the tailgating handouts and put over your windshield. Cut in half if you need to but they're big. sturdy, and work great. Snow/ice just slides off and you'll be left with a super clear windshield.

 

[bac2therac]

HRRR cut back on totals..watching further runs and 0z nest before I make my final call

Both the HRRR and NAM 3-4 inches latest dont match up with some of the more aggressive totals NWS are forecasting

 

[rurichdog]

The freezing fog early this morning was a nice touch

 

[RUPete]

The freezing fog early this morning was a nice touch

Glad I didn’t need to go out too early. That sh$t is bad.

 

[RULoyal]

Dan Zarrow's latest

 

[BigEastPhil]

I’ve got my daughter’s 4th grade travel hoops game in Manalapan at 5pm. We live about 30 mins east of there, so will need to drive an hour round trip at 4 and at 6. I really hope it’s cancelled, would rather put a fire on and watch the football games.
Also not sure how safe it is driving in sleet/ice/snow. It’s all back roads. Think Manalapan around 4-6 will be ok or ice/mess?

I’m sure the game will be cancelled.

 

[BigEastPhil]

Eagles game today should be fun to watch today in the snow.

Can just imagine how many snowballs those animals will throw at the Rams players !

 

[rutgersguy1]

take one of those extra garbage bags you might have from the tailgating handouts and put over your windshield. Cut in half if you need to but they're big. sturdy, and work great. Snow/ice just slides off and you'll be left with a super clear windshield.

Thanks, good idea but luckily the cars are in the garage. I've seen car windshield covers somewhere (maybe Costco?) for the same idea. Your way is more economical though.

I think I'll probably go out 9:30-10 and remove what I can from the driveway and sideawalk and hopefully not too much more comes down after that. I'll throw out some ice melter too after then see what might be needed the next morning.

I hope the plows come by and are finished mostly because the end of the driveway where they block it up is the one for real potential to be a brick the next morning.

 

[mikemarc1]

Not sure what this means for later - but current observations in PA are much snowier than modeled.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I’ve got my daughter’s 4th grade travel hoops game in Manalapan at 5pm. We live about 30 mins east of there, so will need to drive an hour round trip at 4 and at 6. I really hope it’s cancelled, would rather put a fire on and watch the football games.
Also not sure how safe it is driving in sleet/ice/snow. It’s all back roads. Think Manalapan around 4-6 will be ok or ice/mess?

My daughter’s CYO hoops game at 3pm was just cancelled. Mercer County area.

 

[NickRU714]

I’ve got my daughter’s 4th grade travel hoops game in Manalapan at 5pm. We live about 30 mins east of there, so will need to drive an hour round trip at 4 and at 6. I really hope it’s cancelled, would rather put a fire on and watch the football games.
Also not sure how safe it is driving in sleet/ice/snow. It’s all back roads. Think Manalapan around 4-6 will be ok or ice/mess?

Checked in with my kids.
Since school is already cancelled tomorrow they want enough for sleding but not enough to cancel baseball training tonight at 6pm.

They even asked if the coaches live in town too and can walk to the middle school.

It's my daughters only formal baseball training of the week so she really doesn't want it cancelled.

 

[bac2therac]

Each run of the HRRR continues to be on the lower end of forecasted totals

 

[Knight Shift]

HRRR cut back on totals..watching further runs and 0z nest before I make my final call

What is HRRRR?

 

[Doteman]

Each run of the HRRR continues to be on the lower end of forecasted totals

Time to panic Numbers, weather.gov was at 4-6 for Pway an hour ago. Now 3-5, might be down to 2-4 with warm temps here

 

[Knight Shift]

Dan Zarrow's latest

Finally, something succinct and intelligible, without 20,000 words and scoldings to read my 20 other posts and on weather weenie acronyms

 

[bac2therac]

What is HRRRR?

Short term model

 

[RULoyal]

What is HRRRR?

Googled (obviously)

The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) is regional weather model for North America made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US (NOAA). It provides a great forecast for the continental United Stated, Canada and Mexico based on radars' data — the unique advantage of HRRR. It is assimilated every 15 min over a 1 h period. It gives short-range weather forecasts with pretty good accuracy.

 

[RU848789]

Time to panic Numbers

Not from the HRRR, lol. HREF is quite high for all as is the Euro-AIFS (4-7" for most), while some models show 2-4/3-5", so a forecast of 4-6" for the 95 corridor and most of CNJ seems decent to me still (and 5-7" NW of 95 and 2-4" towards the coast). We'll see of course.

Biggest questions to me for 95 and SE of there are: i) how much front end rain/mix does an area get (and when do temps get cold enough to accumulate easily), ii) how much total precip do we get, and iii) where do the heaviest bands set up after about 3 pm, when the heavier precip is supposed to fall.

Those aren't really going to be answered by the models anymore as there's too much variability across them, so it's nowcasting time, i.e., watch the radars, the soundings/temps, and the sky of course...and time to enjoy it, for me, whether it's 3" or 7" (my low and high range for my house).

 

[RU848789]

I’ve got my daughter’s 4th grade travel hoops game in Manalapan at 5pm. We live about 30 mins east of there, so will need to drive an hour round trip at 4 and at 6. I really hope it’s cancelled, would rather put a fire on and watch the football games.
Also not sure how safe it is driving in sleet/ice/snow. It’s all back roads. Think Manalapan around 4-6 will be ok or ice/mess?

Between 4 and 6 pm will likely be the worst conditions for everyone, including Manalapan with moderate to heavy snow by then, unless every model is wrong. Unless you love driving in the snow, I'd watch some football, lol.

 

[RU848789]

If this is suppose to mix with rain, you think there’s a good chance it will harden overnight with the cold temps? Better off to remove what you can late evening early night?

bac and I and others have mentioned this and I can't reiterate it strongly enough. Anywhere that gets some mix/rain before the snow will likely have a slushy layer on the bottom and if that isn't shoveled by 10 pm or so, it's going to quickly become a solid icy mass as temps fall through the 20s this evening and won't be above 20F again for maybe 3 days.

Areas to the NW of 95 that get all snow are likely to not have this issue, unless they put salt down first, which will create some slush underneath.

 

[bac2therac]

Not from the HRRR, lol. HREF is quite high for all as is the Euro-AIFS (4-7" for most), while some models show 2-4/3-5", so a forecast of 4-6" for the 95 corridor and most of CNJ seems decent to me still (and 5-7" NW of 95 and 2-4" towards the coast). We'll see of course.

Biggest questions to me for 95 and SE of there are: i) how much front end rain/mix does an area get (and when do temps get cold enough to accumulate easily), ii) how much total precip do we get, and iii) where do the heaviest bands set up after about 3 pm, when the heavier precip is supposed to fall.

Those aren't really going to be answered by the models anymore as there's too much variability across them, so it's nowcasting time, i.e., watch the radars, the soundings/temps, and the sky of course...and time to enjoy it, for me, whether it's 3" or 7" (my low and high range for my house).

To be fair these are exactly the times to use the HRRR and you have often used it before here

In not necessarily a big fan of it but it definitely throws out a case for lower end. Also that post on AW by Jet guy a red tagger about tempering accumulations was noteworthy

 

[bac2therac]

Im leaning toward 3-6 across central jersey to cover the bases..4-8 north of 78..2-4(leaning lower) monmouth down to inland south jersey..2-4 philly..coating to 2 inches coast. As always there will be a lollipop that overpwrforms somewhere

We lose some pavement accumulations early with snizzle and low intensity but main show is 4-8 pm

How much banding to the north and then who is in the subsidence. Its a quick mover but we will have one inch an hour rates at some point.

 

[Knight Shift]

Googled (obviously)

The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) is regional weather model for North America made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US (NOAA). It provides a great forecast for the continental United Stated, Canada and Mexico based on radars' data — the unique advantage of HRRR. It is assimilated every 15 min over a 1 h period. It gives short-range weather forecasts with pretty good accuracy.

I really do appreciate your posts. The weather weenies get a little carried away with their verbosity, and the snarky answers to simple questions. Have heard of GFS, NAM, and a couple of others, but HRRR is new, and this thread should not be an exercise in jumping to Google to look up obscure models. HRRR is not listed on the NWS list.

Weather Maps and Computer Models

 

[Sweet Peas Corner]

Starting to snow Flemington proper 11:00am

 

[bac2therac]

I really do appreciate your posts. The weather weenies get a little carried away with their verbosity, and the snarky answers to simple questions. Have heard of GFS, NAM, and a couple of others, but HRRR is new, and this thread should not be an exercise in jumping to Google to look up obscure models. HRRR is not listed on the NWS list.

Weather Maps and Computer Models

Its been referenced here before and isnt obscure

 

[bac2therac]

All of the more short term high resolution models keep things more in the 2-4 range

Even the gfs the snowiest model is 4-6

 

[Big boy stan]

Snowing pretty good in cherry hill. Never got any rain. Straight to snow. Guessing this means higher amounts???

 

[mikemarc1]

Snowing pretty good in cherry hill. Never got any rain. Straight to snow. Guessing this means higher amounts???

Not necessarily..but yes, observations seem to indicate storms a bit different than modeled.

Let’s see what that means later on…

 

[RU_DIO]

Tuesday is going to be cool in Red Bank. Navesink should be fully frozen over and I'm sure the locals will have their ice boats out. Haven't seen them in a few years.

 

[bac2therac]

Snowing pretty good in cherry hill. Never got any rain. Straight to snow. Guessing this means higher amounts???

Its likely still above freezing where you are?

The main show doesnt start til late afternoon..these are mood flakes

 

[bac2therac]

37 with some slow moving cotton flakes in Belle Mead

 

[RU848789]

Im leaning toward 3-6 across central jersey to cover the bases..4-8 north of 78..2-4(leaning lower) monmouth down to inland south jersey..2-4 philly..coating to 2 inches coast. As always there will be a lollipop that overpwrforms somewhere

We lose some pavement accumulations early with snizzle and low intensity but main show is 4-8 pm

How much banding to the north and then who is in the subsidence. Its a quick mover but we will have one inch an hour rates at some point.

That's not far from the NWS (maybe just a lower lower end of your ranges) or from my thinking, which is pretty well aligned with the NWS (wasn't for much of the past few days, when I thought they were too low early on, then too high for a bit, then too low yesterday and now maybe just right, lol), although I could see snows being a little less than the NWS is calling for and unlikely to be more, except in some narrow bands, which are impossible to predict.

One interesting piece of data is that the 32F wet bulb line is only about 15 miles NW of 95 (the wet bulb is the temp the air will reach once it becomes saturated at 100% RH, so if it's 37F but 67% humidity, for example, when the falling precip from above saturates the column, the temp at the surface will go down to 32F); our wet bulb temp now is 34F (37F/84% RH), so we need to advect some more cold air into our area to get temps down to 32F.

Decent radar returns for much of CNJ - assuming some in western CNJ are seeing precip (snow/rain/mix?); we're still saturating the column here with no precip reaching the ground.

 

[RU848789]

Snowing pretty good in cherry hill. Never got any rain. Straight to snow. Guessing this means higher amounts???

That is a bit of a surprise - might mean things are cooling off faster than expected aloft there, such that the snow produced 5000+ ft above is surviving all the way to the surface and then presumably melting as it's 36F at the surface there, but not saturated yet, so it will still cool to 34-35 just from falling precip. But you need more cold air to advect in to likely have accumulations, unless you get high enough rates to overcome the melting rate.

 

[RULoyal]

37 with some slow moving cotton flakes in Belle Mead

Ditto in So. Bruns.

 

[S_Janowski]

Snow / sleet coming down at a decent clip in Marlton but doesn’t look like it will sustain by the radar.

 

[Postman_1]

Very light snow in Hamilton

 

[Joey Bags]

Solid light snow in hunterdon but temp profile is very marginal. Temp and dew point have increased as the returns get heavier which is not what I had anticipated. Cold air will eventually filter in but white rain for the foreseeable couple of hours.

 

[Knight Shift]

Its been referenced here before and isnt obscure

Nobody GAS except for you weather weenies. Speak English.

 

[Knight Shift]

Very light snow in Hamilton

Nothing here in Monmouth/Ocean border not far from the beach. The radar seems to indicate not much for us until later. 39 F here too, which will bode well for rain until later. The graphic for our area has us above freezing until 6 p.m.