OT: RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES FOR MOST

[RBS05]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by WhiteBus:
RBS. No they havent been right 24 hours out of every "major" storm. The Philly stations have had it wrong every time this winter. Inside 24 hours they start backing off but even today they are leading the news about the next two Winter Alerts. Failing to say that everything that came down is completely gone already.
The people that need therapy are those that keep running out because they "gotta get the milk and bread" (insert funny video here).
The news has become the sky is falling show.
Weather winnies are so defensive. Face it they done a poor job this winter around here.
It all about getting people to watch. Damn be any truth.

Shockingly you're changing your story. I didn't say they have been right for every storm. You were challenged on your most recent bullshit and shown facts, and now the forecast was still wrong because those facts only applied to the half of the area that of course you weren't talking about.

 

[WhiteBus]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Wrong RBS. They have been wrong on every occurrence this winter 24 out for every where in tge Philly TV market this winter. I have been very consistent in all these threads that 24 hours and out is where the hype is a hoax. I would hope they can get it right within 24 hours but even tge NWS had a forecaster officially apologise after some major goofs this winter.

 

[RBS05]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Your inability to read is astounding.

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Great discussion by the NWS-NYC. Starting to look more likely that we'll have a decent snowfall event (up to 6" and possibly more, although we're still 60 hours out, so much can still go wrong with the forecast for snow) on Thursday, after a more wintry event than probably expected tomorrow night, with 1-2" of snow sleet in the northern part of Central Jersey and all of North Jersey/NYC/LI and some freezing rain possible. Yes, it will warm up on Wednesday and rain everywhere, but as expected, our area won't be getting close to the mid-50s - in fact, it's more likely temps won't reach 40F in NB, for example, than it is they'll reach 50F.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE
TRI-STATE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMES ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE AND THAT AT LEAST
ONE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS IN PART IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WHICH TRACKS FROM THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTHEASTERN US
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...INCLUDING EXACTLY HOW
FAR SIGNIFICANT CWA...AND
HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION TURNS OVER TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST TO COOL THE LOW LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT
HAS HAD A WARM BIAS OF LATE...THE ECMWF ARE THE FASTEST...WITH
THE CMC SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. HAVE USED A ECMWF/CMC BLEND FOR
HPC
AFD FOR DETAILS.
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A TAD SLOWER OVER THE TWIN FORKS AND NYC. THE
HEAVIEST QPF AND HENCE SNOWFALL THOUGH WILL OCCUR FROM AROUND
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
REGION BEING IN THE HPA
JET. SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON.

AS NOTED IN THE OPENING TO THIS SECTION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER NYC/NE NJ/LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by WhiteBus:
#s Yes. More than half those towns are upper bucks. Im south of the Burlington Bridge. At no time yesterday was the ground covered where I could not see grass. I live here. There wasn't jack of an accumulation of snow. There was more hail by far than snow. By 4:30 all rain.
Most of those towns are closer to Allentown than where I am at. And some at higher elevations.

So, you got zero snow/sleet and yet towns to your south and SW got 1.0-1.4" and obviously every town to your NW got at least an inch. That's almost impossible. Isn't it at least possible you got about an inch of snow/sleet, which wouldn't cover all the grass? An inch is really not that much and is within the 1-3" call. And like I said above you did not have hail, you had sleet, and sleet counts towards the snow total.

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 1.4 1200 AM 3/02 NWS OFFICE
WRIGHTSTOWN 1.0 700 AM 3/02 TRAINED SPOTTER
FLORENCE 1.0 208 PM 3/01 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
PHILADELPHIA CENTER 1.0 930 AM 3/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Mt holly is under an inch for all of central jersey with that mix...sleet and freezing rain the biggest threat until it turns over...

 

[WhiteBus]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

#s are you snow blind and can't read?? I said we had a brief snow with zero measurable snow. Than sleet. Than rain.
Stop defending what didn't happen.

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

DT hasn't had his best year, this winter, but he's barking for a 6-12" snowstorm for our region on Thursday. And that was before tonight's models, which are coming in fairly snowy now that we're about 54 hours from the start of the potential snow. Lee Goldberg just said 3-6" or maybe even more.

Also, winter weather advisories are up for an inch or so of snow/sleet, followed by some freezing rain, largely around mid late afternoon tomorrow, which could make things dicey for the pm rush hour. There's also the potential for up to 2-3" in most of Central Jersey if the changeover gets delayed by an hour or two, given some moderate rates.

As I've said many times, from an impact perspective 1/4" of sleet has the same impact as 1" of snow, as they have about the same mass (10:1 snow to liquid ratio vs. 2.5:1 sleet to liquid ratio), so even if we "only" got 1/2" of snow and 1/2" of sleet that would be 1" in depth, but the equivalent of 2.5" of snow depth. Hence the winter weather advisories for most of the area - in addition could be some freezing rain before the change to plain rain late omorrow evening.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/826654940715099/?type=1&theater

 

[RocktheRac]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Frank Lombardo WCTC Snow developing late this afternoon. Look for 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow before changing to freezing rain/sleet tonight. Temps go to 32-34. On Wednesday look for temps in the 40's with some rain. The system then stalls and the rain will change to snow early Thursday morning with several inches by morning.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY


Mt Holly snowmap is 4-6 for just about everyone for tomorrow night into Thursday. Looking like another snow day for the kiddies. I think its a good starting point and they can pinpoint a little further as the models converge and maybe bump the totals a bit. Looks like a pretty good storm, may be the most of the season for some areas.

tonights event will be tricky depending on locations and switchover. I suspect sleet will be the bigger factor than snow and then how long do we have freezing rain before changing to plan rain by midnight. Expect mixed bag accumulations in the central jersey area to be an inch or less, to the north there may be a bit more.

 

[RocktheRac]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

News 12 using the gfs saying 6 to 8 Thursday thru Friday


We could see 8 to 12 if all things come together and its colder than thought



This post was edited on 3/3 8:40 AM by RocktheRac

 

[RUhasarrived]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Cuba set it's all time low temperature record on Friday at 33.How far South do we have to go to escape this global warming-sub-Saharan Africa?

 

[BobbyVFan]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Bac or Numbers, Can one of you guys please give us an idea on the timing of the 2nd storm? I thought this was a Thursday night into Friday event. But reading Bac's latest post it seems like this may end up playing out Wednesday into Thursday?

 

[DJ Spanky]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Originally posted by BobbyVFan:
Bac or Numbers, Can one of you guys please give us an idea on the timing of the 2nd storm? I thought this was a Thursday night into Friday event. But reading Bac's latest post it seems like this may end up playing out Wednesday into Thursday?

Right now it appears to be starting as rain Wednesday evening, then turning into snow overnight into Thursday morning. Looks like it could be a real mess.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Rain to snow sometime Wednesday evening or after midnight continuing into Thursday morning

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Originally posted by bac2therac:
Rain to snow sometime Wednesday evening or after midnight continuing into Thursday morning

Yep, for Central Jersey, models are showing the rain changing to snow sometime between midnight and 2 am on Thursday morning and continuing, heavy at times until maybe noon. NWS maps showing 4-8", but they're being conservative vs. the models, which are mostly showing 6-12" - given a few busts this year and climatology being against us (harder to snow in March), I understand being conservative, but people should realize this has at least a 50% chance of being a 6" or more snowstorm. I'd expect the current advisories for today and this evening to be converted straight to warnings for Thursday, either tonight or early Wednesday morning, assuming no major model shifts.

And don't overlook today's event. 1" of snow/sleet for Central Jersey (2" near 78 and 3" near 80 is possible) could make the rush hour a mess, as temps will still be in the upper 20s in the late afternoon, so it will accumulate on untreated surfaces. We could then get 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain on top of that before temps go above 32F in the mid-evening and then we get maybe a 1/2" of rain tomorrow before the changeover to snow.

Very good discussion on the AmericanWx - Philly forum page. As bac or 4Real will tell you, much higher quality discussion on that subforum, especially with multiple NWS mets posting on that page. For snow lovers, my favorite quote from one of the NWS guys, Mitchell Gaines in response to bust potential vs. the busted blizzard was, "The model flips and flops were wild at this point (36-42 hours out) with that storm. GGEM and UKMET never had it so it never a high certainty we were getting the blizzard. Much better odds this go around." Also, Ray Martin (famartin) a former NWS-Philly met, now in Elko, NV, but a great poster, still, is calling for 5-10" in the area (specifically Trenton, where he's from).

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45894-possible-snow-rain-snow-event-tuesday-thursday-33-52015/page-5

NWS maps link:

http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
This post was edited on 3/3 11:27 AM by RU848789

 

[njbfr]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

When is it supposed to start today? I need to make a quick run down to Cream Ridge and back in a state vehicle (ie, POS).

 

[RUPete]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Originally posted by njbfr:
When is it supposed to start today? I need to make a quick run down to Cream Ridge and back in a state vehicle (ie, POS).

That's great! That would factor into your planning. I'm guessing the state vehicles don't have all the latest safety features, right?

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY


have to see how much is lost at the beginning of the Wed night storm to rain and sleet at the start. I think 4-8 is a good call at the moment. Those snowfall maps from the models are almost always overdone so getting 12 inches widespread is a stretch

I think 6-10 is probably the max for this system and trends are that Trenton south to Philly and in south jersey may be the sweet spot with the most snow with maybe just 4-6 amounts in the northwest sections and northern NYC

the euro came in a little warmer with todays event and some places are reporting spotty precip already...temps are in the upper 20s around the area. Main roads have been treated so its going to take until dark until any precip really effects the roads

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Originally posted by njbfr:
When is it supposed to start today? I need to make a quick run down to Cream Ridge and back in a state vehicle (ie, POS).

3-4 pm, depending on where you are. Radar looks spotty and this was never going to be a big precip producer. I wouldn't worry much about major roads at any time today or tonight. Untreated secondary roads, sidewalks and such could get quite slick, though, especially after 5-6 pm with no sunlight and temps a little below 32F. On the whole, though, this is a pretty minor event, except for places that get some freezing rain this evening, which can always add some danger...

 

[ClassOf02]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Snow just started in Whitehouse Station.

 

[jerzey devil]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY


OMG!!!!! GOTTA GET BREAD AND MILK!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[DJ Spanky]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Been snowing here in Branchburg for about half an hour.

Originally posted by jerzey devil:

OMG!!!!! GOTTA GET BREAD AND MILK!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wow, you're extremely unprepared: I stocked up on Sunday for both snowmageddon events this week.

 

[jerzey devil]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY


well what can I say spanky...I WAS HUNGRY!!! LMAO

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

I suggest everyone load up on pancakes at IHOP today

 

[CranfordKnight]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

The Woodbridge-area MILFs were streaming into Wegman's after lunch today, so you know it's on.

 

[dmd78]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Flurries started about 1 hour ago up here in Bergen County, and is now gradually becoming more steady.

Enough is enough.

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Winter storm watches are up for entire NWS-Philly area (most of NJ, eastern PA, all of DE and eastern MD) for 4-8" of snow on Thursday. Variables will be how much precip and how quickly the rain changes to sleet and then snow. Potential is there for up to 10", but could also only be 4" or so on the northern fringe, due to less precip and only 4" or so near the coast, if the changeover is later. Sweet spot right now is the I-95 corridor with 6-8" predicted on the map. Most of the watches have similar wordings - here's one, below.

Also, radar has really blossomed currently, so maybe we'll get that 1" or so of snow before sleet and freezing rain take over later on this evening. With temps now below 32F (evaporational cooling does wonders), accumulations will be easy, especially now tha the sun is almost down.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...SOME SNOW AND ICE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS... THEN
POTENTIALLY A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...

NJZ012-015-PAZ106-040830-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-150304T0600Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0006.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/
MIDDLESEX-MERCER-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...MORRISVILLE...
DOYLESTOWN
319 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN 1 INCH INTO THIS
EVENING... THEN 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW
AND IF SLEET LASTS LONGER DURING THE TRANSITION.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL QUICKLY MIX WITH SLEET THEN CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN INTO THIS EVENING THEN TO ALL RAIN OVERNIGHT.
RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW... POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...NEAR 30 DEGREES... THEN RISING INTO THE MID 30S
OVERNIGHT.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/StormTotalSnowFcst

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Been snowing here for 90 minutes and just starting to stick...doubt we get much before sleet takes over

For tomorrow night it will be interesting to see how much that rain and sleet cuts into totals if at all

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Re: OT: MINOR MIX EVENT TUES NIGHT BUT MAJOR SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY

Seriously coming down in nyc

 

[bac2therac]

OT: RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT MAYBE LESS LOL


flipped to sleet here after less an 1/4 inch of snow..sleet line moving west to east across the state of NJ bisecting it in half right now

This post was edited on 3/4 11:55 AM by bac2therac

 

[Scarlet_Monster]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

That was a quick dusting...

This post was edited on 3/3 5:01 PM by Scarlet_Monster

 

[RU4Real]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

20 minutes of steady snow and then an immediate flip to sleet and rain.

I notice the weenies are now wishcasting against suppression for Thursday.

 

[JMG1MON]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Freezing rain in South brunswick!

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES


the weenies yelled at me earlier today because I dared to say that this event tonight was an inch or less for most and they said every model is showing 2-4 wah wah wah....well how is your 2-4 tonight weenies, models are always overdone especially in times of mix..

 

[RUMcMahon]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Heavy sleet - jackson

 

[mesa4234]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by bac2therac:

the weenies yelled at me earlier today because I dared to say that this event tonight was an inch or less for most and they said every model is showing 2-4 wah wah wah....well how is your 2-4 tonight weenies, models are always overdone especially in times of mix..

I wish it was a bit more snow and a less more mix. New Brunswick was a mess about 45 minutes ago...

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by bac2therac:

the weenies yelled at me earlier today because I dared to say that this event tonight was an inch or less for most and they said every model is showing 2-4 wah wah wah....well how is your 2-4 tonight weenies, models are always overdone especially in times of mix..

Once again you trolled folks by saying an inch or less for people in NYC and north of 80 - you didn't qualify your statement. Plenty of folks up there will get to 2" (but likely not 4"). Nobody predicted more than 1" for Central Jersey. Tonight is all about the sleet and freezing rain.



After about 1/2" of snow in Rahway this afternoon, it's sleet everywhere south of 78, now, as warm air is screaming in
at about 5000 feet up in the atmosphere, but it's dropped to the upper 20s at
the surface, so we have a few hours of sleet and freezing rain to go before the
entire column warms to above 32F by 9-11 pm (but not until 1-3 am from NYC on
northward). Conditions will be icy tonight until temps go above freezing.





If you live in Central Jersey or points south and you're lazy, don't shovel this evening - whatever is
on your driveway will melt by 6 am, as temps reach to about 35-37F by 6-7 am
tomorrow in Central Jersey and most of the area will reach 40F tomorrow. If you
live from 80 north, shovel, as temps may not get above 32F until 5-6 am and
highs will only be in the mid-30s.

By the way, winter storm watches are now up from the NWS in NYC (except far northern sections of the Hudson Valley and CT) for similar 4-8" of snow on Thursday, as for the NWS-Philly area. Still concerns over suppression (areas from NYC on northward may end up with less - hard to believe Philly to Woodbridge and south of there don't get 6" or more) and concerns over sleet on the SE side of the precip (near the shore, perhaps) keeping snowfall amounts down.

Still potential for 10" though, too - will be fascinating to see the outcome, as this is a truly unusual setup, with the southern branch of the jetstream screaming in moisture from the Pacific off of Mexico all the way up here (look at the water vapor loop), plus a component of Gulf moisture is present and we have that huge polar airmass oozing down from the north - not even really a classic "storm" per se - just impulses riding up along the jet and lots of precip falling, especially near where the cold and warm airmasses collide (often called the baroclinic zone).

 

[RocktheRac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Yup the mixing started earlier during rush hour, Unfortunately me and bac decided to sit the BB game out. Looks like a good move. I don't mind driving if I'm the only one on the road.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by bac2therac:

the weenies yelled at me earlier today because I dared to say that this event tonight was an inch or less for most and they said every model is showing 2-4 wah wah wah....well how is your 2-4 tonight weenies, models are always overdone especially in times of mix..

Once again you trolled folks by saying an inch or less for people in NYC and north of 80 - you didn't qualify your statement. Plenty of folks up there will get to 2" (but likely not 4"). Nobody predicted more than 1" for Central Jersey. Tonight is all about the sleet and freezing rain.




After about 1/2" of snow in Rahway this afternoon, it's sleet everywhere south of 78, now, as warm air is screaming in
at about 5000 feet up in the atmosphere, but it's dropped to the upper 20s at
the surface, so we have a few hours of sleet and freezing rain to go before the
entire column warms to above 32F by 9-11 pm (but not until 1-3 am from NYC on
northward). Conditions will be icy tonight until temps go above freezing.





If you live in Central Jersey or points south and you're lazy, don't shovel this evening - whatever is
on your driveway will melt by 6 am, as temps reach to about 35-37F by 6-7 am
tomorrow in Central Jersey and most of the area will reach 40F tomorrow. If you
live from 80 north, shovel, as temps may not get above 32F until 5-6 am and
highs will only be in the mid-30s.

By the way, winter storm watches are now up from the NWS in NYC (except far northern sections of the Hudson Valley and CT) for similar 4-8" of snow on Thursday, as for the NWS-Philly area. Still concerns over suppression (areas from NYC on northward may end up with less - hard to believe Philly to Woodbridge and south of there don't get 6" or more) and concerns over sleet on the SE side of the precip (near the shore, perhaps) keeping snowfall amounts down.

Still potential for 10" though, too - will be fascinating to see the outcome, as this is a truly unusual setup, with the southern branch of the jetstream screaming in moisture from the Pacific off of Mexico all the way up here (look at the water vapor loop), plus a component of Gulf moisture is present and we have that huge polar airmass oozing down from the north - not even really a classic "storm" per se - just impulses riding up along the jet and lots of precip falling, especially near where the cold and warm airmasses collide (often called the baroclinic zone).

I didn't say nyc north...I said nyc south to NJ...if I said anything and yes from Nyc to here its going to be an inch or less

there was no way a situation like this with marginal temps and ice expected was getting 2-4 inches like they trumpeted the models as saying