OT: RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES FOR MOST

[JERZEE73]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

White Bus
What I don't get, is how argumentative you can be.
First of all, ###s is from Metuchen & most of his info is directed at Central Jersey, the rest of the state, & NYC, SI, & LI. Don't see him venturing over to your neck of the woods too often. Then when he's nice enough to offer you at least a partial apology, you even have to question why you need to perhaps apologize partially as well. Why?
As for bac, he also focuses on the same areas.
I guess it would become increasingly easy, to dispute these guys gathering of info & trying to forecast, the farther away from the area they're referring to that you go. Yes, they aren't right all the time, but I'll still listen to them before The weather Channel or the TV stations. I hope that you only open this thread because you find the info useful, otherwise why waste your time?

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Looks like the Euro held serve with about 6...I think the nws will keep the broad 4-8 range up

I saw John Elliot on channel2 have 2-4 /4-8 cutting through cj

Bill evans on channel 7 had 3-6/6-10 border for cj

So while there are some models honking lower I think the 4-8 is a good call going into the event...going to be tough and unlikely to exceed 8 north of Trenton

 

[WhiteBus]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by JERZEE73:
White Bus
What I don't get, is how argumentative you can be.
First of all, ###s is from Metuchen & most of his info is directed at Central Jersey, the rest of the state, & NYC, SI, & LI. Don't see him venturing over to your neck of the woods too often. Then when he's nice enough to offer you at least a partial apology, you even have to question why you need to perhaps apologize partially as well. Why?
As for bac, he also focuses on the same areas.
I guess it would become increasingly easy, to dispute these guys gathering of info & trying to forecast, the farther away from the area they're referring to that you go. Yes, they aren't right all the time, but I'll still listen to them before The weather Channel or the TV stations. I hope that you only open this thread because you find the info useful, otherwise why waste your time?

I think you have it backwards. It was #s and yourself disputing my observations not the other way around. No where in this thread have I said those in others parts were lying about what they got in their area, However the two of you said I was l making ship up. Now others have verified that I was accurate and not a liar.

At least #s has the decency to say he was wrong.

 

[JERZEE73]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

I never got involved with saying you were right or wrong. I just don't like how you've been so critical of some of the forecasting here, when they don't even focus on your area, so I poked a little fun at you. Honestly, I could care less if you got a 1/2 inch or an inch & a 1/2.
Again you either don't understand or are just being argumentative again.
BTW, if you want me to apologize, I will. Just not sure for what. I can only laugh.

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by RU848789:


After about 1/2" of snow in Rahway this afternoon, it's sleet everywhere south of 78, now, as warm air is screaming in
at about 5000 feet up in the atmosphere, but it's dropped to the upper 20s at
the surface, so we have a few hours of sleet and freezing rain to go before the
entire column warms to above 32F by 9-11 pm (but not until 1-3 am from NYC on
northward). Conditions will be icy tonight until temps go above freezing.

If you live in Central Jersey or points south and you're lazy, don't shovel this evening - whatever is
on your driveway will melt by 6 am, as temps reach to about 35-37F by 6-7 am
tomorrow in Central Jersey and most of the area will reach 40F tomorrow. If you
live from 80 north, shovel, as temps may not get above 32F until 5-6 am and
highs will only be in the mid-30s.

By the way, winter storm watches are now up from the NWS in NYC (except far northern sections of the Hudson Valley and CT) for similar 4-8" of snow on Thursday, as for the NWS-Philly area. Still concerns over suppression (areas from NYC on northward may end up with less - hard to believe Philly to Woodbridge and south of there don't get 6" or more) and concerns over sleet on the SE side of the precip (near the shore, perhaps) keeping snowfall amounts down.

Still potential for 10" though, too - will be fascinating to see the outcome, as this is a truly unusual setup, with the southern branch of the jetstream screaming in moisture from the Pacific off of Mexico all the way up here (look at the water vapor loop), plus a component of Gulf moisture is present and we have that huge polar airmass oozing down from the north - not even really a classic "storm" per se - just impulses riding up along the jet and lots of precip falling, especially near where the cold and warm airmasses collide (often called the baroclinic zone).

As bac noted, weenie suicide warning has been posted for NYC, LI, NE NJ, Hudson Valley posters and folks in Central Jersey/SE PA/South Jersey are just under a weenie suicide watch, lol. Models coming in drier today so far. As I said yesterday and on American, I wasn't going to be confident until the 12Z runs today and after seeing the consensus we had at 0Z last night go south (literally, lol), it might be time for the NWS to back off at least a bit on snowfall forecasts and possibly even trim some of the warnings back to advisories (need high confidence in 6" or more for a warning vs. 3" or more for an advisory for Central/North Jersey/NYC/LI). Looking like more of a 3-6" event for most (even towards Philly perhaps, if this "two wave" scenario plays out), which is still a significant storm, but not a major one. If anyone is curious, below is what I wrote on American yesterday afternoon, but didn't post here (limited time). Got meetings and work most of the day, so probably won't check in on the weather much until early evening.

I won't feel confident in getting 6" or more until 12Z tomorrow. I know the setup is different, but I just remember those March "snowstorms" last year that were suppressed by the polar vortex in the last 24-36 hours before the event, turning 3-6" into 3-6 snowflakes north of the Raritan or even 195. And the "blizzard" this year. Point being that there's still too much that can go wrong 42 hours out. I'll feel much better at ~18 hours out at 12Z tomorrow, if the models are still showing 6" or more. On the flip side, I'll still be happy to get 3-5" of snow or even 2" of snow and 2" of sleet on 3/5, but I'd really love to have one shellacking this winter...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45894-possible-snow-rain-snow-event-tuesday-thursday-33-52015/page-6#entry3473242

Edit: by the way, I'm very glad I waited until this morning. The inch or so of snow/sleet/ice was solid as a rock last night when I got back from the RU game and while it didn't melt and run off, with temps in the mid-30s this morning, at least it was soft and easy to shovel.
This post was edited on 3/4 11:37 AM by RU848789

And, of course, the later 12Z models come in still snowy (5-9") for NYC/NENJ/LI/Central Jersey/eastern PA, including the Euro and the Canadian, two of the best models. I give up, lol - it's also why I usually don't post here or elsewhere after each model run, as it's just too variable. As of now, I'd be surprised if the NWS dropped any warnings. Maybe they'll go from 5-9" in the warnings to 4-8" or something like that. And they'll probably go with advisories for maybe 3-6" for areas north of NYC, i.e., north of 80. Tough call - bust potential either way is always high when there's no consensus.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by bac2therac:
Looks like the Euro held serve with about 6...I think the nws will keep the broad 4-8 range up

I saw John Elliot on channel2 have 2-4 /4-8 cutting through cj

Bill evans on channel 7 had 3-6/6-10 border for cj

So while there are some models honking lower I think the 4-8 is a good call going into the event...going to be tough and unlikely to exceed 8 north of Trenton

NWS out of Philly still has parts of NJ getting 8-10":

 

[WhiteBus]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by JERZEE73:
I never got involved with saying you were right or wrong. I just don't like how you've been so critical of some of the forecasting here, when they don't even focus on your area, so I poked a little fun at you. Honestly, I could care less if you got a 1/2 inch or an inch & a 1/2.
Again you either don't understand or are just being argumentative again.
BTW, if you want me to apologize, I will. Just not sure for what. I can only laugh.

Forecasting here?? Either you are confusing me with others that bash #'s or you simply can't read. Not once on this thread have I mentioned any forecast of those on here. My post have always about the hype of the news stations.

My first post on here

Let the hype begin. Local news is already making this a story.

The real story is Wed. 58 degrees. Now that is something to hype!!

My second post on this thread.

No measurable snow in Lower Bucks/Philly. Mostly sleet now raining.

Your post in response
So Brunswick schools on a 90 minute delay tomorrow.
Waiting for White Bus's latest post on how the weather prognosticators missed again with this snow. The guy must really live in Florida. Tired of hearing his comments on how every storm prediction has underperformed this season.

And you are calling me the argumentative one?? Please stop. You started this back and forth and with false info!

Please point out where I blasted someone's forecast on here. I've been killing the media, Philly TV in particular not #'s or anyone else's forecast on here.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Yeah I think if anyone receives over 8 its the shore and south jersey

 

[Ridge 22]

Re: OT: RAIN TO SNIW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT MAYBE LESS

Will it be snowing in Central NJ (Somerset County) during the day tomorrow (i.e. between 8:00 AM and 2:00 PM)? I keep hearing about snow accumulations during the day tomorrow, but if according to the radar animations I have seen, it looks like the precipitation is over by daybreak for that area (although it may continue to come down south for a while).

 

[Skull83]

Re: OT: RAIN TO SNIW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT MAYBE LESS

Originally posted by Ridge 22:
Will it be snowing in Central NJ (Somerset County) during the day tomorrow (i.e. between 8:00 AM and 2:00 PM)? I keep hearing about snow accumulations during the day tomorrow, but if according to the radar animations I have seen, it looks like the precipitation is over by daybreak for that area (although it may continue to come down south for a while).

I'm a little confused about the timing too. My band has a gig in Red Bank tomorrow night and I'm crossing my fingers that, whatever happens, it will be over by the afternoon.

 

[retired711]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by JERZEE73:
White Bus
What I don't get, is how argumentative you can be.
First of all, ###s is from Metuchen & most of his info is directed at Central Jersey, the rest of the state, & NYC, SI, & LI. Don't see him venturing over to your neck of the woods too often. Then when he's nice enough to offer you at least a partial apology, you even have to question why you need to perhaps apologize partially as well. Why?
As for bac, he also focuses on the same areas.
I guess it would become increasingly easy, to dispute these guys gathering of info & trying to forecast, the farther away from the area they're referring to that you go. Yes, they aren't right all the time, but I'll still listen to them before The weather Channel or the TV stations. I hope that you only open this thread because you find the info useful, otherwise why waste your time?

I am in Cherry Hill and I realize full well that what I see in this thread rarely reflects my locale. But since it's so hard to predict snow with any precision, I find it useful to be here. I will say that I am getting tired of all the animosity on this board, and wish it would stop. Now.

 

[knightfan7]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

My appt with the state that was set for first thing tomorrow morning has been moved to Monday. One less worry so I'm good now. Plenty of time to shovel before work Friday.

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by DJ Spanky:

Originally posted by bac2therac:
Looks like the Euro held serve with about 6...I think the nws will keep the broad 4-8 range up

I saw John Elliot on channel2 have 2-4 /4-8 cutting through cj

Bill evans on channel 7 had 3-6/6-10 border for cj

So while there are some models honking lower I think the 4-8 is a good call going into the event...going to be tough and unlikely to exceed 8 north of Trenton

NWS out of Philly still has parts of NJ getting 8-10":

That map was generated at 4:18 a.m. Haven't the models dried up by now, like the 10 loaves of bread I stockpiled because I thought we were getting 10 inches of snow at the shore?

 

[e5fdny]

NEW STORM....NEW THREAD

Originally posted by camdenlawprof:

Originally posted by JERZEE73:
White Bus
What I don't get, is how argumentative you can be.
First of all, ###s is from Metuchen & most of his info is directed at Central Jersey, the rest of the state, & NYC, SI, & LI. Don't see him venturing over to your neck of the woods too often. Then when he's nice enough to offer you at least a partial apology, you even have to question why you need to perhaps apologize partially as well. Why?
As for bac, he also focuses on the same areas.
I guess it would become increasingly easy, to dispute these guys gathering of info & trying to forecast, the farther away from the area they're referring to that you go. Yes, they aren't right all the time, but I'll still listen to them before The weather Channel or the TV stations. I hope that you only open this thread because you find the info useful, otherwise why waste your time?

I am in Cherry Hill and I realize full well that what I see in this thread rarely reflects my locale. But since it's so hard to predict snow with any precision, I find it useful to be here. I will say that I am getting tired of all the animosity on this board, and wish it would stop. Now.

I'd settle for a new thread for a new storm.

This page after page thing is stupid.

.
This post was edited on 3/4 4:24 PM by e5fdny

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by e5fdny:

Originally posted by camdenlawprof:

Originally posted by JERZEE73:
White Bus
What I don't get, is how argumentative you can be.
First of all, ###s is from Metuchen & most of his info is directed at Central Jersey, the rest of the state, & NYC, SI, & LI. Don't see him venturing over to your neck of the woods too often. Then when he's nice enough to offer you at least a partial apology, you even have to question why you need to perhaps apologize partially as well. Why?
As for bac, he also focuses on the same areas.
I guess it would become increasingly easy, to dispute these guys gathering of info & trying to forecast, the farther away from the area they're referring to that you go. Yes, they aren't right all the time, but I'll still listen to them before The weather Channel or the TV stations. I hope that you only open this thread because you find the info useful, otherwise why waste your time?

I am in Cherry Hill and I realize full well that what I see in this thread rarely reflects my locale. But since it's so hard to predict snow with any precision, I find it useful to be here. I will say that I am getting tired of all the animosity on this board, and wish it would stop. Now.

I'd settle for a new thread for a new storm.

This page after page thing is stupid.

Who's got the snowballs to start a new thread? The last guy who started his own weather thread was lambasted.

This is the crankiest weather thread ever. I like how Snow is spelled SNIW in the title.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE


new Mt Holly snow map is 4-6 for virtually all of Somerset County except for extreme southern parts and 6-8 for most of Middlesex to the shore. So they still are going with their bullish call

12z Euro and RGEM were about 6. 18z NAM bumped a bit to 3-6 and 12z GFS was 3-5 with its next run coming up in less than an hour.

Rain to snow changeover times are looking at anywhere between 1-3AM and it should snow a good part of tomorrow morning maybe into the early afternoon. ..of course that's always subject to change.

Dave Curran on News 12 is thinking that the amounts will be less than 6 and closer to 3 saying he thinks the radar at present is lining up more south and I guess he is using the RPM model as backing with the lower amounts

 

[rurichdog]

Re: OT: RAIN TO SNIW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT MAYBE LESS


But but but...Sun angles! Dendrites! CCB!

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: RAIN TO SNIW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT MAYBE LESS


no we do not need a new thread this one is fine

anyway Lee Goldberg sticks with 4-8 inches NYC south through central jersey, says he was tempted to put NYC in 2-4 earlier but going to stick with 4-8. 8 plus as you get past Monmouth and Ocean possible.

just be aware of any minor tweaks with amounts tonight based on maybe some short term stuff. We figure to have 1-3 inches on the ground by daybreak at least. So schools will be closed and everyone should just stay home from work

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by camdenlawprof:

Originally posted by JERZEE73:
White Bus
What I don't get, is how argumentative you can be.
First of all, ###s is from Metuchen & most of his info is directed at Central Jersey, the rest of the state, & NYC, SI, & LI. Don't see him venturing over to your neck of the woods too often. Then when he's nice enough to offer you at least a partial apology, you even have to question why you need to perhaps apologize partially as well. Why?
As for bac, he also focuses on the same areas.
I guess it would become increasingly easy, to dispute these guys gathering of info & trying to forecast, the farther away from the area they're referring to that you go. Yes, they aren't right all the time, but I'll still listen to them before The weather Channel or the TV stations. I hope that you only open this thread because you find the info useful, otherwise why waste your time?

I am in Cherry Hill and I realize full well that what I see in this thread rarely reflects my locale. But since it's so hard to predict snow with any precision, I find it useful to be here. I will say that I am getting tired of all the animosity on this board, and wish it would stop. Now.

you are in the 6-8 range for now

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by bac2therac:

new Mt Holly snow map is 4-6 for virtually all of Somerset County except for extreme southern parts and 6-8 for most of Middlesex to the shore. So they still are going with their bullish call

12z Euro and RGEM were about 6. 18z NAM bumped a bit to 3-6 and 12z GFS was 3-5 with its next run coming up in less than an hour.

Rain to snow changeover times are looking at anywhere between 1-3AM and it should snow a good part of tomorrow morning maybe into the early afternoon. ..of course that's always subject to change.

Dave Curran on News 12 is thinking that the amounts will be less than 6 and closer to 3 saying he thinks the radar at present is lining up more south and I guess he is using the RPM model as backing with the lower amounts

Can you post a link to the new Mt. Holly map? I could only find the old map. Thanks for the updates, and I was just busting about the thread sucking!! This thread rules!

 

[retired711]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

many thanks, bac. That is a reduction from the 8 to 10 forecast early this morning. I'm not a weather forecaster, but my guess is everything depends on when the cold air moves in.

 

[Knight Shift]

Re: OT: RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT MAYBE LESS

I think I found it:

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: LIGHT MIX TO RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN TO SNOW LATE WED NIGHT 4-8 INCHES

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by RU848789:


After about 1/2" of snow in Rahway this afternoon, it's sleet everywhere south of 78, now, as warm air is screaming in
at about 5000 feet up in the atmosphere, but it's dropped to the upper 20s at
the surface, so we have a few hours of sleet and freezing rain to go before the
entire column warms to above 32F by 9-11 pm (but not until 1-3 am from NYC on
northward). Conditions will be icy tonight until temps go above freezing.

If you live in Central Jersey or points south and you're lazy, don't shovel this evening - whatever is
on your driveway will melt by 6 am, as temps reach to about 35-37F by 6-7 am
tomorrow in Central Jersey and most of the area will reach 40F tomorrow. If you
live from 80 north, shovel, as temps may not get above 32F until 5-6 am and
highs will only be in the mid-30s.

By the way, winter storm watches are now up from the NWS in NYC (except far northern sections of the Hudson Valley and CT) for similar 4-8" of snow on Thursday, as for the NWS-Philly area. Still concerns over suppression (areas from NYC on northward may end up with less - hard to believe Philly to Woodbridge and south of there don't get 6" or more) and concerns over sleet on the SE side of the precip (near the shore, perhaps) keeping snowfall amounts down.

Still potential for 10" though, too - will be fascinating to see the outcome, as this is a truly unusual setup, with the southern branch of the jetstream screaming in moisture from the Pacific off of Mexico all the way up here (look at the water vapor loop), plus a component of Gulf moisture is present and we have that huge polar airmass oozing down from the north - not even really a classic "storm" per se - just impulses riding up along the jet and lots of precip falling, especially near where the cold and warm airmasses collide (often called the baroclinic zone).

As bac noted, weenie suicide warning has been posted for NYC, LI, NE NJ, Hudson Valley posters and folks in Central Jersey/SE PA/South Jersey are just under a weenie suicide watch, lol. Models coming in drier today so far. As I said yesterday and on American, I wasn't going to be confident until the 12Z runs today and after seeing the consensus we had at 0Z last night go south (literally, lol), it might be time for the NWS to back off at least a bit on snowfall forecasts and possibly even trim some of the warnings back to advisories (need high confidence in 6" or more for a warning vs. 3" or more for an advisory for Central/North Jersey/NYC/LI). Looking like more of a 3-6" event for most (even towards Philly perhaps, if this "two wave" scenario plays out), which is still a significant storm, but not a major one. If anyone is curious, below is what I wrote on American yesterday afternoon, but didn't post here (limited time). Got meetings and work most of the day, so probably won't check in on the weather much until early evening.

I won't feel confident in getting 6" or more until 12Z tomorrow. I know the setup is different, but I just remember those March "snowstorms" last year that were suppressed by the polar vortex in the last 24-36 hours before the event, turning 3-6" into 3-6 snowflakes north of the Raritan or even 195. And the "blizzard" this year. Point being that there's still too much that can go wrong 42 hours out. I'll feel much better at ~18 hours out at 12Z tomorrow, if the models are still showing 6" or more. On the flip side, I'll still be happy to get 3-5" of snow or even 2" of snow and 2" of sleet on 3/5, but I'd really love to have one shellacking this winter...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45894-possible-snow-rain-snow-event-tuesday-thursday-33-52015/page-6#entry3473242

Edit: by the way, I'm very glad I waited until this morning. The inch or so of snow/sleet/ice was solid as a rock last night when I got back from the RU game and while it didn't melt and run off, with temps in the mid-30s this morning, at least it was soft and easy to shovel.
This post was edited on 3/4 11:37 AM by RU848789

And, of course, the later 12Z models come in still snowy (5-9") for NYC/NENJ/LI/Central Jersey/eastern PA, including the Euro and the Canadian, two of the best models. I give up, lol - it's also why I usually don't post here or elsewhere after each model run, as it's just too variable. As of now, I'd be surprised if the NWS dropped any warnings. Maybe they'll go from 5-9" in the warnings to 4-8" or something like that. And they'll probably go with advisories for maybe 3-6" for areas north of NYC, i.e., north of 80. Tough call - bust potential either way is always high when there's no consensus.

After all the hullabaloo, NWS has essentially not changed much at all - in fact, they expanded the winter storm warnings slightly further north to include Essex and all of NYC for 4-7" of snow, while almost all of NJ/PA, south of 78 is in warnings for 4-8", despite what the maps show. These are obviously just barely warning level snows and with the possibility still of more sleet than expected (later changeover) and less precip overall, almost everyone could bust low - similarly, if there is more precip after the cold air arrives, everyone could easily bust high, as the warmth and moisture feed from the SW and the Gulf are pretty impressive. As for almost every storm this year, we're 6 hours away from the main event and we still don't truly know what we're going to get. A little frustrating, but that's why it's also so much fun to track and watch. Keep an eye on the changeover rate to our NW and the amount of precip feeding in later tonight - that will tell us a lot.

 

[e5fdny]

NEW STORM....NEW THREAD

Originally posted by bac2therac:

no we do not need a new thread this one is fine

anyway Lee Goldberg sticks with 4-8 inches NYC south through central jersey, says he was tempted to put NYC in 2-4 earlier but going to stick with 4-8. 8 plus as you get past Monmouth and Ocean possible.

just be aware of any minor tweaks with amounts tonight based on maybe some short term stuff. We figure to have 1-3 inches on the ground by daybreak at least. So schools will be closed and everyone should just stay home from work

When the first page is from a storm that is long gone?

Yes we do, Sheldon.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: NEW STORM....NEW THREAD

Originally posted by e5fdny:

Originally posted by bac2therac:

no we do not need a new thread this one is fine

anyway Lee Goldberg sticks with 4-8 inches NYC south through central jersey, says he was tempted to put NYC in 2-4 earlier but going to stick with 4-8. 8 plus as you get past Monmouth and Ocean possible.

just be aware of any minor tweaks with amounts tonight based on maybe some short term stuff. We figure to have 1-3 inches on the ground by daybreak at least. So schools will be closed and everyone should just stay home from work

When the first page is from a storm that is long gone?

Yes we do, Sheldon.

nope too bad


dave curran on news 12 continuing to go with low amounts...calling only 2-3 for Hillsborough/Somerville...wow. I will say he did get that so called blizzard storm right with his lower totals so lets see if he can nail this one

 

[bac2therac]

Re: NEW STORM....NEW THREAD

You cannot make this up...the 18z GFS just jumped north pretty good....double its snowfall totals and the entire area from nyc south is 6-9...went from drier model to wettest. Have to look at the short term models and radar as we go forward but there stands a good chance that alot of us end up with a solid 6. The models have also moved away from the break in precip tomorrow

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT MAYBE LESS

FYI, here's what I sent out an hour or so ago - fascinating situation - will be interesting to see if the late trend towards more snow prevails or not. I honestly don't have a friggin' clue.


Bottom line: NWS has issued winter storm warnings for
just every county south of 78 in PA/NJ (down through Philly, Balt, DC, DE, VA,
MD, etc., where they might get more) and for all of NYC and LI for 4-8" of
snow, starting late tonight/early Thursday and lasting through at least early
afternoon on Thursday.





The two keys to this whole "storm" (really a series of
impulses riding the southern branch of the jet stream, bringing warm moist air
into a collision with an approaching strong polar front from the NW) are when
does the changeover occur and how much precip falls as after the
changeover? Huge, unanswered questions still, which is why we see a 4-8"
range - in actuality, the range on the major models is more like 2-12", but
they can't "forecast" that without the public freaking out.





So, the changeover to sleet is likely to start by 10-11
pm from I-95 and points NW (a little earlier well NW) and by 12-1 am closer to
the coast and the changeover to snow will likely be 1-3 hours after that
(freezing rain is unlikely). As we were reminded yesterday, for travel
impacts at least, it's the mass of frozen precip that matters and ¼" of sleet
has about the same mass as 1" of snow, so even if someone gets 1" of sleet and
2" of snow, that's really the equivalent, mass-wise, of 6" of snow - and that
kind of outcome is possible for some. It should be snowing for just about
everyone by 2-4 am. Someday soon I'll share the short "treatise" I wrote
on the board about why it's so hard to predict sleet/freezing rain. Also,
temps will be dropping throughout the day, with temps into the upper 20s by the
morning rush and into the single digits tomorrow night, so this will not be one
of those storms where the March sun angle will affect accumulation much, during
the day.





The next question is how much precip do we get after the
changeover to sleet and then snow. Most models are spitting out 0.5-0.8"
of liquid equivalent as frozen, which would be 5-8" if it were all snow.
The amount of precip is likely to be a bit less north of 78 and especially
north of 80, which is why forecasts are for less snow as one moves north;
however, the areas along I-95 and then along 276/195 in PA/NJ, which should get
more precip, may also just get more rain, leading to similar amounts of frozen
precip (and maybe even more sleet). I wish I could be more definitive,
but I truly can't and I don't believe anyone else out there knows what's going
to happen either. It's what makes meteorology - especially winter precip
forecasts in this area - so maddening, but so fascinating.





Last night and today also reconfirmed for me why I only
like to send out these notes maybe once or at most twice a day (aside from not
having the time). Since yesterday's note, we've been through at least 2
or 3 cycles of winter weather weenie nirvana, to all-out depression - in fact,
I joked this morning on the AmericanWx board that the NWS ought to post weenie
suicide warnings for north of 78/NYC and weenie suicide watches for south of
78/NYC, as literally hundreds of posters were wailing and gnashing their teeth
over the model runs, which looked great (if you love snow, like a true weenie,
lol) last night, bad early in the morning, better in the late morning and back
to pretty good right now.





The uncertainties of this science are why I also posted
the following on the weather board yesterday: "I won't feel confident in
getting 6" or more until the 12Z (7 am) model runs tomorrow. I know
the setup is different, but I just remember those March "snowstorms"
last year that were suppressed by the polar vortex in the last 24-36 hours
before the event, turning 3-6" into 3-6 snowflakes north of the Raritan or
even 195. And the "blizzard" this year. Point being that
there's still too much that can go wrong 42 hours out. I'll feel much
better at ~18 hours out at 12Z tomorrow, if the models are still showing
6" or more. On the flip side, I'll still be happy to get 3-5"
of snow or even 2" of snow and 2" of sleet on 3/5, but I'd really
love to have one shellacking this winter..."





NWS link and link to a great storm tracking thread are
below


http://www.weather.gov/phi/
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42006-storm-tracking-images/

 

[njbfr]

Re: OT: RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE BUT MAYBE LESS

Rutgers has a delay already until Noon tomorrow

 

[JERZEE73]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE


Listen White, I'm really tired of this. No you never directly criticized ###s, but you come on here where bac, ###s, & a couple others try to help people by updating the weather & all you do is talk about how they (no names) are wrong again. That's indirectly busting their chops. Even in the quote you mention, I say you criticize the weather prognosticators. Meanwhile, guys like ###s have defended most of the forecasts, at least the forecasts that are within 24 hours of any storm. They also have mentioned how difficult the forecasting season has been.
I even apologized to you, hoping that this would end. Can we stop? I know I'm finished. Not worth it. Peace
This post was edited on 3/4 8:22 PM by JERZEE73

 

[Doteman]

Temps still very warm throughout the state, this could bust

 

[bac2therac]

Not likely...nam just came in juicy....changeover times have always been 1-3am...now how much is lost in transition is up for debate

 

[WhiteBus]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by JERZEE73:

Listen White, I'm really tired of this. No you never directly criticized ###s, but you come on here where bac, ###s, & a couple others try to help people by updating the weather & all you do is talk about how they (no names) are wrong again. That's indirectly busting their chops. Even in the quote you mention, I say you criticize the weather prognosticators. Meanwhile, guys like ###s have defended most of the forecasts, at least the forecasts that are within 24 hours of any storm. They also have mentioned how difficult the forecasting season has been.
I even apologized to you, hoping that this would end. Can we stop? I know I'm finished. Not worth it. Peace


This post was edited on 3/4 8:22 PM by JERZEE73

Jerzee. Do you really have a reading comprehension problem or do you like being the antagonist? I HAVE ONLY CRITIIZED THE PHILLY MEDIA! PERIOD. Never have I criticized bac. He has agreed with some of the over zealous prognostications in this thread and others. And bac has gone out of his way to come introduce himself to my tailgate and I have stopped by his. Solid RU supporter! I have been a # fan as he was dead on for all the home games this season. Only you keep up this stupid battle against me because you can't read. #'s disagreed with the me on snowfall here where I live and you jumped on board. #'s found out I was right but you keep this silly nonsense up. And no you didn't apologize to me for being ignorant about the real totals at all.
I have been exclusively critical of the media hype. Go back and read my posts. Your are an idiot for saying I battle the guys on here on this thread. I don't. You have failed to produce any post about me getting after anyone on this thread but now you changed your tune. Please don't respond to my post anymore or call me out. Simply you are a troll.

if you can't comprehend what I or anyone on here posts, you are better off not calling anyone out. Go back and look at how wrong you have been.
This post was edited on 3/4 10:35 PM by WhiteBus

 

[FastMJ]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Holy shite can you guys just get a room?

 

[WhiteBus]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by FastMJ:
Holy shite can you guys just get a room?

Not that I would but it's a non starter anyway. His big head wouldn't fit thru the door

 

[chickenpatty2]

Little did the people of the village know . . . that Bac, #s, Jerzee, and WhiteBus . . . were ALL THE SAME PERSON!

It was finally figured out by none other than the MILF Quadruplets that were sitting in various rooms of his house. He mistakenly entered the kitchen without taking off the suit jacket that he had been wearing in the other room for one of the sisters. He was found out. Here endeth the story.

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by WhiteBus:

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by WhiteBus:
#s Yes. More than half those towns are upper bucks. Im south of the Burlington Bridge. At no time yesterday was the ground covered where I could not see grass. I live here. There wasn't jack of an accumulation of snow. There was more hail by far than snow. By 4:30 all rain.
Most of those towns are closer to Allentown than where I am at. And some at higher elevations.

So, you got zero snow/sleet and yet towns to your south and SW got 1.0-1.4" and obviously every town to your NW got at least an inch. That's almost impossible. Isn't it at least possible you got about an inch of snow/sleet, which wouldn't cover all the grass? An inch is really not that much and is within the 1-3" call. And like I said above you did not have hail, you had sleet, and sleet counts towards the snow total.

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 1.4 1200 AM 3/02 NWS OFFICE
WRIGHTSTOWN 1.0 700 AM 3/02 TRAINED SPOTTER
FLORENCE 1.0 208 PM 3/01 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
PHILADELPHIA CENTER 1.0 930 AM 3/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

So, I owe WhiteBus a partial apology and vice versa, I think. I posted on American asking for anyone in Bucks in the vicinity of Bristol/Croydon PA how much snow/sleet they got and amazingly, that area truly was in some weird hole, with several posters saying they got around 1/2-3/4" of combined snow and sleet. Less than an inch, so technically less than the 1-3" the NWS forecasted (just about the only area they missed on), but more than the zero snow (and snow includes snow and sleet, when measuring, although in fairness WB might not have known that) he claimed.

I accept your apology....I think. I don't know where I owe you one however? I posted accurate information and you disagreed. Know it seems you are not disputing my observations as others have now confirmed.

Plus I have been very clear about "snow" amounts not a combined snow/sleet. But even the snow/sleet totals were not near predicted. Certainly not outside the 24 hours predictions when the TV's are trying to get more eyeballs by hyping amounts.

I think you fail to realize how big Bucks County is, I know Jerseez doesn't have a clue! Would you use snow amounts in Hunterdon County to compare what Burlington County got? Of course not. Bucks County shares the Delaware River with 3 counties. All off Hunterdon, all of Mercer and most of Burlington.

Also you may or may not be aware that Philadelphia's "official" amounts and temps come from the Philadelphia Airport not the city itself. The Airport is at the bottom end of Philadelphia County, is 10 miles from Center City and nearly 30 miles from here.

As for tomorrow's storm the stations are already in retreat mode now that we within 24 hours. Last night was 8inch to a foot. NBC just posted 4-7 now. Lets see if the others follow suit.

You said there was essentially no snow. Where you're "wrong" is that people in your area received close to 3/4" of combined snow and sleet, and this may be a technicality, but from a measuring perspective, snow and sleet are combined, which perhaps you did not know. Not a big deal in hindsight, but if you were reporting "snowfall" as an observer, you would have reported 1/2" or 3/4", even if it was mostly sleet. You never said, oh, yeah, I got 1/2 or 3/4" of sleet, but made it sound like you had no frozen precip.

I grew up in Gloucester County and have spent a ton of time in many parts of the Philly suburbs, so I know Bucks well - that's why I included the followup post showing 1" or greater "snowfalls" (snow and sleet) for points close to you in NJ and in Philly (that was Center City, not the airport), in locations that normally would be expected to get less than lower Bucks. It will forever be an unexpected oddity (but a real one as I confirmed) that you got less than those locations in a changeover situation, where normally being S or SW would give you less.

I do believe you have a very warped view of the NWS pros. I know a few of these folks and I know them to be, by far, most concerned with being correct. They have little motivation to hype forecasts (no profit motive) and it's killed them to be wrong a lot more than usual this winter. But I have great respect for quite a few of them that own up to the busts either on AmericanWx or FB or in the AFDs from the NWS. I wish I could do a better job of explaining how outrageously complex and difficult forecasting snow is in this area - I've tried several times, but I don't think it sinks in with most. Just the fact that the models are as accurate at 5 days out now as they were 3 days out 25 years ago is truly remarkable. But obviously they're not perfect (but still improving, this winter aside).

 

[RU848789]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by camdenlawprof:

Originally posted by JERZEE73:
White Bus
What I don't get, is how argumentative you can be.
First of all, ###s is from Metuchen & most of his info is directed at Central Jersey, the rest of the state, & NYC, SI, & LI. Don't see him venturing over to your neck of the woods too often. Then when he's nice enough to offer you at least a partial apology, you even have to question why you need to perhaps apologize partially as well. Why?
As for bac, he also focuses on the same areas.
I guess it would become increasingly easy, to dispute these guys gathering of info & trying to forecast, the farther away from the area they're referring to that you go. Yes, they aren't right all the time, but I'll still listen to them before The weather Channel or the TV stations. I hope that you only open this thread because you find the info useful, otherwise why waste your time?

I am in Cherry Hill and I realize full well that what I see in this thread rarely reflects my locale. But since it's so hard to predict snow with any precision, I find it useful to be here. I will say that I am getting tired of all the animosity on this board, and wish it would stop. Now.

I'm with you. I don't start weather threads anymore, because of all the grief just associated with that - look at folks giving bac a hard time over not starting a new thread, just like they did when I started them. And the whining and criticism for people who are doing this in their free time as a simple way to try to help out is really annoying. When I started doing these 10 years ago or so, I got tons of kudos - now, not so much. The only good thing is some of the worst trolls (T2K and 95, neither of whom have been spotted for awhile) have either been banned or told to not troll these threads.

I already do this for over 1000 people at work and a few hundred family and friends, via email and FB, so I could easily stop posting about the weather here and it would actually save me time and grief. The only reason I haven't stopped completely is that more than a few good posters, like yourself and quite a few others, seem genuinely appreciative. Perhaps what I need to do more of, as my wife said, is to simply ignore the folks who troll these threads.

bac - one comment: I've met and talked meteorology with Dave Curran and the best I can say is that he's a genuinely nice guy. I started talking about some deeper meteorological science with him and he simply didn't get it - he may be a fine forecaster (or really, model interpreter, these days), but I'm even skeptical of that.

skull/ridge - with regard to timing the worst will be from about 3 am until noon, with snow tapering off in the early afternoon, expcept a few hours later down the shore. Here's the NB map to give you a sense for timing...

 

[vm7118]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by camdenlawprof:

Originally posted by JERZEE73:
White Bus
What I don't get, is how argumentative you can be.
First of all, ###s is from Metuchen & most of his info is directed at Central Jersey, the rest of the state, & NYC, SI, & LI. Don't see him venturing over to your neck of the woods too often. Then when he's nice enough to offer you at least a partial apology, you even have to question why you need to perhaps apologize partially as well. Why?
As for bac, he also focuses on the same areas.
I guess it would become increasingly easy, to dispute these guys gathering of info & trying to forecast, the farther away from the area they're referring to that you go. Yes, they aren't right all the time, but I'll still listen to them before The weather Channel or the TV stations. I hope that you only open this thread because you find the info useful, otherwise why waste your time?

I am in Cherry Hill and I realize full well that what I see in this thread rarely reflects my locale. But since it's so hard to predict snow with any precision, I find it useful to be here. I will say that I am getting tired of all the animosity on this board, and wish it would stop. Now.

I'm with you. I don't start weather threads anymore, because of all the grief just associated with that - look at folks giving bac a hard time over not starting a new thread, just like they did when I started them. And the whining and criticism for people who are doing this in their free time as a simple way to try to help out is really annoying. When I started doing these 10 years ago or so, I got tons of kudos - now, not so much. The only good thing is some of the worst trolls (T2K and 95, neither of whom have been spotted for awhile) have either been banned or told to not troll these threads.

I already do this for over 1000 people at work and a few hundred family and friends, via email and FB, so I could easily stop posting about the weather here and it would actually save me time and grief. The only reason I haven't stopped completely is that more than a few good posters, like yourself and quite a few others, seem genuinely appreciative. Perhaps what I need to do more of, as my wife said, is to simply ignore the folks who troll these threads.

bac - one comment: I've met and talked meteorology with Dave Curran and the best I can say is that he's a genuinely nice guy. I started talking about some deeper meteorological science with him and he simply didn't get it - he may be a fine forecaster (or really, model interpreter, these days), but I'm even skeptical of that.

skull/ridge - with regard to timing the worst will be from about 3 am until noon, with snow tapering off in the early afternoon, expcept a few hours later down the shore. Here's the NB map to give you a sense for timing...

keep it up, numbers. i probably speak for dozens if not hundreds on here that are mostly silent, but do appreciate what you and bac contribute. on the other hand, i really can't believe some of the resident morons on this site... but 90% of us love what you have been doing.

 

[RUhasarrived]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

At 1:30,the rain line is still holding fairly well.A lot of the big snow packs have shrunk considerably tonight.With next week's warmup,most of this stuff could be gone from places where it hasn't been piled.

 

[bac2therac]

Re: OT: WINTER SNOW EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ NIGHT...1-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO ICE

38 and rain in Belle Mead as of 2:15...rain/snow line in nw Jersey but taking its time...looks like we don't flip until 4-5 am and going to bw tough to acccumulate at first on paved surfaces