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OT: RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES FOR MOST

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Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by RU848789:
As of 6:30 am, we finally have 1" on the ground, 2.5 hours after it started, and temps have dropped to 31F. Snow falling moderately to almost heavily right now (visib slightly more than 1/4 mile) - gorgeous flakes. Was just outside for a walk and it's great snowball snow, at this time. Models show us snowing at a good clip until at least 1-2 pm, so hopefully we'll get to 6" (4" seems pretty certain to get to the 4-8" forecast range).
As of 7:30 am we're up to 1.75" (about 3/4" in the last hour - would've thought it was 1" per hour rates, but the ruler never lies, lol) and it's still 31F. It's just ripping out there - borderline heavy - this is going to be an awesome storm to watch from my recliner. But I also urge folks to get out and about in it - words don't do justice to how gorgeous it is out there right now. Can't wait for enough snow to make a good snow angel, lol...
2.75" at 9 am and it's dropped to 30F - moderate to occasionally heavy snow...6" is a lock here and hopefully more...
 
Live in Howell, work in Freehold. Route 9 was messy but not too terrible, although I can't see that lasting. Secondary roads are covered and got a call from Howell last night that they have a salt shortage so cleaning up the roads will not be an easy task
 
Snowing good now in North Brunswick - was just out walking and it is about an inch plus, but it is a very wet snow with the rain underneath. Recommend people definitely shovel this asap as was said before.
 
Anybody know how roads are now in Middlesex County? Considering driving my daughter to her Mom's, which means going from Sayreville to So. Brunswck & back. Where I'm located I can't even see secondary roads.
Appreciate the help.
 
delete - dupe - system was saying it didn't post - this board technology just sucks...

This post was edited on 3/5 9:41 AM by RU848789
 
Originally posted by WhiteBus:

Highly recommend getting out now and removing bottom layer ASAP. If you are in areas like here where there was a steady rain before the change over you can save your self a big problem later. This made for a thick layer of slush almost instantly. Even with about a 1/4 of an inch it's wet and heavy. With the temps plummeting thru the day this bottom layer could be a thick layer of ice.

Snow seems to be tiny light beads instead of flakes at this point.

Philly TV has only reduced forecast from last night from 4-7 to 4-6 this morning and still calling for 6-8 in the heart of south Jersey. So even with the late start no big change
Followed your advice, but even though it was steady rain out here at the shore, no slush underneath. I'm hanging inside and will hit the driveway with the snow blower when it stops.
 
Changeover happened around 530 am here ( Jackson/Freehold), heavy snow right now. First glance this morning and I was thinking bust but accumulation has picked up big time.
 
Changeover happened around 530 am here ( Jackson/Freehold), heavy snow right now. First glance this morning and I was thinking bust but accumulation has picked up big time.
 
Originally posted by sport2231:

Originally posted by RULoyal:

Originally posted by RU1977:

Work is open here in Wayne, I'm in. Wife is off, schools in Clifton closed. Isn't there a state of emergency or something?
Yup - link
I may be wrong and I am sure I will hear about if I am but I don't think state of emergency means you can't drive unless they specifically put that into place. It usually just means allocating extra emergency personal
That's my impression, too, from what happened last winter. BTW, Rutgers-Camden has now closed until 5 p.m. I am at the campus and am heading home.
 
11025634_10205938285760828_6454211719895677197_n.jpg
 
Changeover happened around 530 am here ( Jackson/Freehold), heavy snow right now. First glance this morning and I was thinking bust but accumulation has picked up big time.
 
Absolutely looks like the death band from Philly to Trenton to about Hazlet - people must be getting 2" per hour snows there - just missing to my south, damn. Snowing moderately here - time to go back outside for a bit...
This post was edited on 3/5 9:45 AM by RU848789
 
2.5 here in Belle Mead but treated surfaces are faring better reducing accumulation in those spots.

Snow isn't all that heavy. I always laugh at the reports of heavy snow on the weenie board for virtually every snow even. Its in the light to moderate range. There were some heavy bands in southern Middlesex and Mercer into Monmouth Counties, I think from their south is where the heaviest axis of snowfall will be located to south jersey.

Just a slower steady event today rather than a quick 4-5 inch thump like we got from a few systems this year.
 
Originally posted by bac2therac:
RU #s...curious to hear why after talking with Dave Curran you say he doesn't get it
I was excited to talk meteorology with a met from TV, with a met degree, so I asked him a few questions about snow microphysics (snow crystal nucleation via supersaturation in the dendritic growth zone, followed by, largely vapor phase deposition-driven growth on those ice nuclei to form snowflakes), which is an area I know a lot about, since the physical-chemical processes are very similar to processes I've worked with in organic synthesis with organic molecule crystallization. He basically said he wasn't real knowledgable about that topic (way less than I was) and was more of a "forecaster" who knows models and basic science. He also was less familiar with building dynamic 3-D fluid dynamics (weather is an example) than I was. I would've expected a degreed meterologist to know more about these things. Doesn't mean he might not be a good forecaster, but other mets I've spoken to kind of cringe at the guys who don't know the underlying science real well.
 
Looks like this thread is starting to splinter because of its size - posts are getting repeated and stuff.
 
Originally posted by RU848789:


Originally posted by bac2therac:
RU #s...curious to hear why after talking with Dave Curran you say he doesn't get it
I was excited to talk meteorology with a met from TV, with a met degree, so I asked him a few questions about snow microphysics (snow crystal nucleation via supersaturation in the dendritic growth zone, followed by, largely vapor phase deposition-driven growth on those ice nuclei to form snowflakes), which is an area I know a lot about, since the physical-chemical processes are very similar to processes I've worked with in organic synthesis with organic molecule crystallization. He basically said he wasn't real knowledgable about that topic (way less than I was) and was more of a "forecaster" who knows models and basic science. He also was less familiar with building dynamic 3-D fluid dynamics (weather is an example) than I was. I would've expected a degreed meterologist to know more about these things. Doesn't mean he might not be a good forecaster, but other mets I've spoken to kind of cringe at the guys who don't know the underlying science real well.
but he made it to tv and its not like he is the most attractive man so he didn't get the job on his looks so he has to have made himself proficient in forecasting. Doesn't seem like he is a snow weenie, what I find on americanwx is some people are looking for ways for it to snow and get the most snow...rather than being objective. Yes its a snow lovers but I always like posters like Gaines and Martin on the Philly board because they cover all bases on what can go right and wrong.

meanwhile I love me some Amy Freeze...does she have a a degree or not?
 
I wussed out and stayed home today even though I'm in Clifton. Could have easily went to work in Morris Plains but I just had no confidence in the evening rush hour. After the nightmare of Tuesday night I'm in no mood to chance going through that again. The forecasts for up here between the weather sites and the news guys had to wide a spectrum for me to feel confident.
 
So when is it supposed to stop? Plan on working the day here in Wayne, and shovel/snowblow when I get home.....
 
Originally posted by RU1977:

So when is it supposed to stop? Plan on working the day here in Wayne, and shovel/snowblow when I get home.....
Looks like late afternoon at the earliest? Where are you in Wayne? I live up behind the AAA building off of Hamburg Tpk.
 
Work off Rt 23 near Rt 23/46/80 intersection and west end of the golf course.....
 
Originally posted by RU848789:
Absolutely looks like the death band from Philly to Trenton to about Hazlet - people must be getting 2" per hour snows there - just missing to my south, damn. Snowing moderately here - time to go back outside for a bit...

This post was edited on 3/5 9:45 AM by RU848789
NBC 10 in Philly has now updated their forecast from 4-7 in the morning to 7-10 along that band
 
Originally posted by RU1977:

So when is it supposed to stop? Plan on working the day here in Wayne, and shovel/snowblow when I get home.....
I saw some of the short term models had snows going in nyc until 7...I think the heaviest stuff is going to go until mid afternoon at least and then some lighter stuff, you are up north so that might help somewhat as you should avoid the heavy banding. Just have to watch the radar for any movement but we seem to have a long way to go..a steady long duration snow
 
Originally posted by DJ Spanky:
Looks like this thread is starting to splinter because of its size - posts are getting repeated and stuff.
Maybe its microphysics and failure of the dendritic growth zone of the thread. That's what the MILFS at the Hillsboro deli are sayin.
 
The updated snow map from Mt Holly is here:

http://www.weather.gov/phi/StormTotalSnowFcst

For some reason when I linked it it displays the old map.
This post was edited on 3/5 10:49 AM by Veiox
 
That's an old map - look at the date. The new one is from today at 10:27
This post was edited on 3/5 10:52 AM by RULoyal
 
Originally posted by bac2therac:
Originally posted by RU848789:


Originally posted by bac2therac:
RU #s...curious to hear why after talking with Dave Curran you say he doesn't get it
I was excited to talk meteorology with a met from TV, with a met degree, so I asked him a few questions about snow microphysics (snow crystal nucleation via supersaturation in the dendritic growth zone, followed by, largely vapor phase deposition-driven growth on those ice nuclei to form snowflakes), which is an area I know a lot about, since the physical-chemical processes are very similar to processes I've worked with in organic synthesis with organic molecule crystallization. He basically said he wasn't real knowledgable about that topic (way less than I was) and was more of a "forecaster" who knows models and basic science. He also was less familiar with building dynamic 3-D fluid dynamics (weather is an example) than I was. I would've expected a degreed meterologist to know more about these things. Doesn't mean he might not be a good forecaster, but other mets I've spoken to kind of cringe at the guys who don't know the underlying science real well.
but he made it to tv and its not like he is the most attractive man so he didn't get the job on his looks so he has to have made himself proficient in forecasting. Doesn't seem like he is a snow weenie, what I find on americanwx is some people are looking for ways for it to snow and get the most snow...rather than being objective. Yes its a snow lovers but I always like posters like Gaines and Martin on the Philly board because they cover all bases on what can go right and wrong.

meanwhile I love me some Amy Freeze...does she have a a degree or not?
He's not a fan of snow (I asked). I love the objective guys, too (the NWS guys and other pros, like Gaines, Rainshadow, famartin, jconsor, jbenedet, ORH, from the New England forum, usedtobe and more are the best and non-pros like donaldsutherland and doorman are great too) and am not a fan of the over the top weenies or the snow-mopes, who downplay everything...you know that's you - and you're likely close to being 5-posted, since they do tolerate the snow weenies more than the curmudgeons, which is probably unfair, but like any board, they're in business and the snow curmudgeons really piss the weenies off.

Anyway, not a fan of Amy at all, either for looks (butterface) or skills, as she's not a degreed met; she has one of those AMS "seals" which I'm sure I could get in a heartbeat (it's a 100 question test) and I shouldn't be forecasting on TV, either. Like Sam Champion, Lonnie Quinn and Al Roker, none of whom have met degrees (and it shows. Oddly enough, Janice Huff, who I also think is terrible, has a met degree from FSU. My faves are Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith, Joe Cioffi, Craig Allen, and Nick Gregory. TWC also has some very good pros in Postell, Parker, and Cantore, who may be a ham, but he's a damn good met.
 
Originally posted by RULoyal:
That's an old map - look at the date. The new one is from today at 10:27
I was linking the new map and for some reason the old one displayed. When I would edit the post it showed the new one, but after saving it showed the old one again.
 
Originally posted by Veiox:

Originally posted by RULoyal:
That's an old map - look at the date. The new one is from today at 10:27
I was linking the new map and for some reason the old one displayed. When I would edit the post it showed the new one, but after saving it showed the old one again.
Not just you - same thing for me.
 
Originally posted by RULoyal:
That's an old map - look at the date. The new one is from today at 10:27
ec

This post was edited on 3/5 10:50 AM by RULoyal
It did the same thing to me too. I assume some kind of cache problem.
 
Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by RU848789:

Originally posted by RU848789:
As of 6:30 am, we finally have 1" on the ground, 2.5 hours after it started, and temps have dropped to 31F. Snow falling moderately to almost heavily right now (visib slightly more than 1/4 mile) - gorgeous flakes. Was just outside for a walk and it's great snowball snow, at this time. Models show us snowing at a good clip until at least 1-2 pm, so hopefully we'll get to 6" (4" seems pretty certain to get to the 4-8" forecast range).
As of 7:30 am we're up to 1.75" (about 3/4" in the last hour - would've thought it was 1" per hour rates, but the ruler never lies, lol) and it's still 31F. It's just ripping out there - borderline heavy - this is going to be an awesome storm to watch from my recliner. But I also urge folks to get out and about in it - words don't do justice to how gorgeous it is out there right now. Can't wait for enough snow to make a good snow angel, lol...
2.75" at 9 am and it's dropped to 30F - moderate to occasionally heavy snow...6" is a lock here and hopefully more...
3.25" as of 10 am and it's now 28F. Much smaller, drier flakes - been mostly moderate snow the last hour - just missed that death band to our south. Damn. Still a great storm so far. At least 6" looks pretty likely...
 
Let's try again. The only change I see is they upped the forecasts from 4-6 to 6-8 in Northern NJ.

StormTotalSnowRange.png

Originally posted by RULoyal:

Originally posted by Veiox:

Originally posted by RULoyal:
That's an old map - look at the date. The new one is from today at 10:27
I was linking the new map and for some reason the old one displayed. When I would edit the post it showed the new one, but after saving it showed the old one again.
Not just you - same thing for me.
 
NEW STORM...NEW THREAD

Originally posted by Knight Shift:

Originally posted by DJ Spanky:
Looks like this thread is starting to splinter because of its size - posts are getting repeated and stuff.
Maybe its microphysics and failure of the dendritic growth zone of the thread. That's what the MILFS at the Hillsboro deli are sayin.
Or maybe it's because as Charlton Heston said at the end of "The Planet of Apes"...

"You maniacs! You did it! You blew it all up!"
LOL

NEW STORM...NEW THREAD

2014.01.03-mrconservative-52c73365d50d6.jpg
 
FWIW, Steve D (NYNJ Weather) just tweeted that the snow will continue until at least 6PM and some areas between SE PA. and CT. will get 12 inches.
Quite a bullish forecast.
 
Wow what a difference here - upper bucks.

Went out before 8:00 and took off the first 2 inches. Went out at 11:00 and the temp dropped from 31 to 23. 3 new inches of snow down and the wind picking up too. Need more clothes and better gloves.
 
Mt holly has most of Nj in 6-8 inches now...some down south of Trenton could get lollipops of 10

3.25 here in Belle mead...snow is steady but not particularly heavy
 
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