OT: RAIN TO SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY 4-8 INCHES FOR MOST
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Weenies already doing play by play on a 9 day storm giving 2-4/3-5 amounts...how sad, do they just want to sit in their house 365 days a year with no social life
I spoke to one of my customers a lawyer in Somerville. I said I think this is the last one. He said there is one lurking next Saturday the 14th. Where did he here this ? Who is starting this 9 days out?
Snow weenies who get hard ons for snow....I want to know what difference in their lives does it make for them to go snow in March and April as opposed to spring temperatures in the 60s and 70s...how sad
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
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I'll be sure not to join that one...I can see how that one might hit close to home!!!Originally posted by DJ Spanky:
Wait until the annual "Best NJ Pizza" thread comes around!Originally posted by West Point Knight:
Dang these weather threads turn vicious!
It just hit 50 in Harrison.The Red Bulls could actually play at home today.That is if the corrupt Town Council bothered to clean the streets by the Stadium.
4Real - good, glad you could admit you were wrong. I admitted I was wrong on those storms last year and admitted I was wrong even in this thread, so not sure what your point is. Sure, I also try to explain it, when I'm wrong, because I think it's important to know the root cause and there are some people interested in the explanation. If you're not, fine, don't read it.
Also, my degrees in chemical eng'g are about as close as one can get to meteorology without majoring in it, so your point on that was completely irrelevant - let me know if you'd like me to explain how much more similar chemical eng'g is to meteorology than geology.
And, oh my god, I talked about myself on a board full of people who talk about themselves, including you. We just focus on different OT topics. Also, I guess I'd rather be known for making some long winded posts than being the board's resident 10-year old bully, who regularly threatens other posters.
Oh yeah, for those of you who hate snow, next weekend could suck. Always a long shot to have snow in late March, but some of the models are showing the potential for an early spring mixed wintry precip event (with the risk of snow higher inland - tougher to get snow on the coastal plain this late in the season).
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45967-mar-10-31-modelthreat-discussion-thread/page-14
Also, my degrees in chemical eng'g are about as close as one can get to meteorology without majoring in it, so your point on that was completely irrelevant - let me know if you'd like me to explain how much more similar chemical eng'g is to meteorology than geology.
And, oh my god, I talked about myself on a board full of people who talk about themselves, including you. We just focus on different OT topics. Also, I guess I'd rather be known for making some long winded posts than being the board's resident 10-year old bully, who regularly threatens other posters.
Oh yeah, for those of you who hate snow, next weekend could suck. Always a long shot to have snow in late March, but some of the models are showing the potential for an early spring mixed wintry precip event (with the risk of snow higher inland - tougher to get snow on the coastal plain this late in the season).
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45967-mar-10-31-modelthreat-discussion-thread/page-14
Temperatures forecast for the rest of the week are low. High 39/ low 26 for Wednesday. Anyone remember the April 1982 blizzard? Or the significant snowfall in April 2003?
April Snow Storms
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
Just to make a point, below is my first post in the thread - that's what I tend to post on weather threads (outside of the observation posts, which, are always going to be I/me posts), until people start arguing with me or worse.
Winter Weather Advisories are up as the 12Z model suite trended colder and snowier, which is no surprise given the pattern and the same thing happening for all of these southwest flow events (like last Saturday, which looked like mostly rain 3 days before the event and ended up being a 3-6" snowfall for almost everyone). 2-4" expected for most of Central NJ (at least from maybe Lambertville to South Amboy and NW of there) with 3-5" expected north of 80.
Could also be 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain on top of the snow, especially in Central Jersey/NYC/LI (north of 80, where it's likely to be all snow, freezing rain is less likely). Show should start in the early/mid afternoon for most and be largely done by midnight. Untreated roads will be slick for the Monday morning rush hour, but roads should be much better by 9-10 am, as temps move into the mid/uppper 30s.
Congrats on learning how to use the font tools. I think most would expect lots of I's and me's in the middle of a "conversation" of sorts with 4Real, who uses just as many I's and me's that you somehow failed to highlight. On the other hand, most of my weather forecast/discussion posts don't say I/me/we, as I generally just report what I've been reading with an occasional opinion or two.Originally posted by e5fdny:
Just to make a point, below is my first post in the thread - that's what I tend to post on weather threads (outside of the observation posts, which, are always going to be I/me posts), until people start arguing with me or worse.
Winter Weather Advisories are up as the 12Z model suite trended colder and snowier, which is no surprise given the pattern and the same thing happening for all of these southwest flow events (like last Saturday, which looked like mostly rain 3 days before the event and ended up being a 3-6" snowfall for almost everyone). 2-4" expected for most of Central NJ (at least from maybe Lambertville to South Amboy and NW of there) with 3-5" expected north of 80.
Could also be 0.1-0.2" of freezing rain on top of the snow, especially in Central Jersey/NYC/LI (north of 80, where it's likely to be all snow, freezing rain is less likely). Show should start in the early/mid afternoon for most and be largely done by midnight. Untreated roads will be slick for the Monday morning rush hour, but roads should be much better by 9-10 am, as temps move into the mid/uppper 30s.
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
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This post was edited on 3/16 5:31 PM by camdenlawprof
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This post was edited on 3/16 5:31 PM by camdenlawprof
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
my apologies -- I don't know how to do that.
Has anyone heard anything new about the possibility of a Friday storm? Or is it just too soon to say? (I suspect it is, but I saw a twitter posting by Gary S. of NWS Mount Holly that the "map is looking snowier." )
my apologies -- I don't know how to do that.
Has anyone heard anything new about the possibility of a Friday storm? Or is it just too soon to say? (I suspect it is, but I saw a twitter posting by Gary S. of NWS Mount Holly that the "map is looking snowier." )
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
I must say that I do not understand the resistance to new threads for new storms, but what do I know?
I must say that I do not understand the resistance to new threads for new storms, but what do I know?
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
Everything has to go perfectly to get snow on the coastal plain this time of year, which is why we sometimes see spring storms with heavy rain for the big cities and inland "paste job" wet snowfalls that are often elevation driven, where a degree or so can mean the difference between all rain and a foot of snow. I recall one such March storm about 15 years ago (don't recall the year, exactly) where we got mostly rain with maybe 1/2" of wet snow from NB to NYC and places like Warren and Bedminster got 10-15" of heavy wet snow. That's illustrative.
Having said all that, it's worth watching this Friday's system, as some models are showing at least some snow, meaning it's at least possible and if we get more cold air or a more dynamic system, significant snows could result. Wouldn't bet on it, yet, but wouldn't dismiss it, either.
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46044-320-21-potential-winter-storm/
Yes, I've posted about it a couple of times. Major snowstorms are pretty unlikely this time of year, but they do occur and when they do, they're often not forecasted well, as many early spring snowstorms are right on the edge of snow and rain given climatology and expected warmer conditions this time of year.
Everything has to go perfectly to get snow on the coastal plain this time of year, which is why we sometimes see spring storms with heavy rain for the big cities and inland "paste job" wet snowfalls that are often elevation driven, where a degree or so can mean the difference between all rain and a foot of snow. I recall one such March storm about 15 years ago (don't recall the year, exactly) where we got mostly rain with maybe 1/2" of wet snow from NB to NYC and places like Warren and Bedminster got 10-15" of heavy wet snow. That's illustrative.
Having said all that, it's worth watching this Friday's system, as some models are showing at least some snow, meaning it's at least possible and if we get more cold air or a more dynamic system, significant snows could result. Wouldn't bet on it, yet, but wouldn't dismiss it, either.
http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46044-320-21-potential-winter-storm/
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
What he does not realize is that those of us using the mobile site have to scroll through 400 plus messages to get his most current forecasts. I myself am in physical therapy for a strained ligament in my right pointer finger from all of the screen swipes needed to get to the most current posts while using my phone.
All that said, I did work through the pain to see his most current forecast for Friday. Its wishful thinking in his part - if we get any snow it will be a coating that is gone within hours - even if I need to use a blow torch to melt it off my property.
While #'s does an excellent job of keeping us posted on the weather, I think he is the main resistance to new threads. He has stated in the past that he does not use a smart phone. In fact I believe his cell phone is one of the first generation types which come in a big carrying case roughly the size of a 2 slice toaster.
What he does not realize is that those of us using the mobile site have to scroll through 400 plus messages to get his most current forecasts. I myself am in physical therapy for a strained ligament in my right pointer finger from all of the screen swipes needed to get to the most current posts while using my phone.
All that said, I did work through the pain to see his most current forecast for Friday. Its wishful thinking in his part - if we get any snow it will be a coating that is gone within hours - even if I need to use a blow torch to melt it off my property.
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
Sounds like you have a valid claim to get what's owed to you. I suggest you give the law firm of Dewey, Cheatem & Howe a call for a free initial consultation. Their number is 1-888-SUE-MDRY (783-6379).
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
I don't use a smart phone, so I never realized that people need to actually scroll to the end - why is that, by the way - why can't you just go right to the end by clicking on the last page (and doing a little scrolling), like I do from my PC?
But I haven't been starting weather threads for awhile and am not sure I will be in the future or even posting on the weather here (haven't decided yet - see my post a few pages back - it's a lot of work, I don't have a lot of free time and the grief quotient has gotten pretty high around here), so don't blame me for not having new threads for new storms - take it up with bac for this one.
While I have stated my preference for keeping things in one thread (I like having all the info in one place, especially on a board where we only have a few days of storage), where possible, based on feedback from quite a few folks, I started doing new threads for each game and each weather event last winter and then this past football season.
I don't use a smart phone, so I never realized that people need to actually scroll to the end - why is that, by the way - why can't you just go right to the end by clicking on the last page (and doing a little scrolling), like I do from my PC?
But I haven't been starting weather threads for awhile and am not sure I will be in the future or even posting on the weather here (haven't decided yet - see my post a few pages back - it's a lot of work, I don't have a lot of free time and the grief quotient has gotten pretty high around here), so don't blame me for not having new threads for new storms - take it up with bac for this one.
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
My comment was not directed at you. I know that as time goes on, you have become more willing to start new threads. I am sorry that you are no longer starting weather threads and are considering not posting here. I understand your frustration, but except for a few idiots, people appreciate what you do. My comment was actually more directed at bac, who a few days back turned down without explanation a request for a new thread.
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
#s,
You have to continue. You and Bac are the Siskel and Ebert of winter weather. I'd just take some time off, relax and re-charge for the next winter cycle.
That said, I'm amazed at the level of entitlement some have with these threads- bitching if predictions don't pan out, complaining about weenie, milk and bread or milf comments because they come here to get "THEIR" weather report and don't want to sift through other comments.
I wouldn't blame you if you bagged it because of the whiners.
#s,
You have to continue. You and Bac are the Siskel and Ebert of winter weather. I'd just take some time off, relax and re-charge for the next winter cycle.
That said, I'm amazed at the level of entitlement some have with these threads- bitching if predictions don't pan out, complaining about weenie, milk and bread or milf comments because they come here to get "THEIR" weather report and don't want to sift through other comments.
I wouldn't blame you if you bagged it because of the whiners.
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
anyway we are at end of this awful winter...there will be nothing really to update...perhaps a shot at wet snow changing to rain for most of us on Friday but no biggie at the moment.
at that point we were deep into discussing the upcoming storm so why bother starting the new one
anyway we are at end of this awful winter...there will be nothing really to update...perhaps a shot at wet snow changing to rain for most of us on Friday but no biggie at the moment.
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
Second, I bought up the smart phone thing since you don't have one and I have long suspected that you did not realize some of the limitations of the mobile site. the real site does not translate to a smart phone screen. the mobile site does but has limitations, one of which is that you cannot go directly to the last post as you can on a computer. You have now confirmed that you did not realize this. While on a computer you can select a page and go directly there (this thread is 9 pages) on a phone you have to scroll. I bet most of the grief you get about new threads are from people using phones who don't like scrolling through 400 replies.
Oh and another thing, most of us do what I did here which is quote the post in the response. Well this actually makes it a longer scroll on a smart phone. Very frustrating to scroll through hundreds of long replies, many with several other messages embedded in them, especially when the actually reply is not part of the meaningful discussion,. Also, fyi, on the mobile site you cannot quote a prior reply.
Hopefully this clears up some of the new thread reasoning.
First, I hope you did not mistake my attempt at humor to be serious ball busting, it was certainly not meant that way.
Second, I bought up the smart phone thing since you don't have one and I have long suspected that you did not realize some of the limitations of the mobile site. the real site does not translate to a smart phone screen. the mobile site does but has limitations, one of which is that you cannot go directly to the last post as you can on a computer. You have now confirmed that you did not realize this. While on a computer you can select a page and go directly there (this thread is 9 pages) on a phone you have to scroll. I bet most of the grief you get about new threads are from people using phones who don't like scrolling through 400 replies.
Oh and another thing, most of us do what I did here which is quote the post in the response. Well this actually makes it a longer scroll on a smart phone. Very frustrating to scroll through hundreds of long replies, many with several other messages embedded in them, especially when the actually reply is not part of the meaningful discussion,. Also, fyi, on the mobile site you cannot quote a prior reply.
Hopefully this clears up some of the new thread reasoning.
You don't have to use the mobile site on the phone...I prefer the regular one and have no issues seeing 9 page threads
Tip for anyone who uses Chrome browser on Android for these massive threads (why they don't have a "jump to end" button I'll never understand): Hit menu button, select "find in page", type one of "topics/privacy/legal" and 99% of the time you'll jump to the bottom of the page on the mobile site. Takes about 3 seconds, 2 seconds if you use Swype.
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
At the risk of further annoying edfny and some others, here comes an I/me post. What has annoyed me is the baiting, trolling, finger-pointing, and downright douchebaggery of a small but vocal minority who either don't like snow or me or both. I have no idea why people like that wouldn't just ignore these threads, but they don't. I don't mind ball-busting at all (I do it, too - just look at some of my exchanges with 4Real - he'll at least argue from knowledge and data - we may disagree, but I think we respect each other, even if he gets a little crazy sometimes, lol) and I don't mind people disagreeing. It's the mean-spirited, "you suck/you're wrong" type stuff that is wearing - I should just ignore it, but I'm not good at that.
I imagine many have no idea that I often spend an hour or two per day perusing various websites (mostly the NWS, as they're the best, IMO), looking at model output, emailing with a few experts in the field, and then trying to deliver a message that helps people understand what might happen, while acknowledging the uncertainty of the forecast, which often can change significantly, even at the last minute.
When I started doing this about 15 years ago, I posted here and had a small email list and almost everyone seemed to at least appreciate the effort. Over the years, I haven't changed much in what I post here, but the site has grown a lot and the tenor, in general, is simply more confrontational and negative; on the other hand, my small email list of 15-20 people has grown into a "blog" style intranet website at work with over 1000 subscribers and a friends/family email list of nearly 200, plus I started posting the same info on Facebook.
I never get grief from any of them, even when a forecast busts, like the "blizzard" (sure, I got my share of teasing, but it was good-natured). Like anyone, I like positive feedback and I get a ton of that from these other outlets, which is why I've considered not making weather posts here anymore. I do appreciate the very nice feedback many have given me in these threads here, so I'm not trying to milk more positive feedback - just trying to explain my thought process. My guess is I'll continue to post about winter weather and gameday weather (and hurricanes, like Sandy), but I'll likely be more low key in doing it (less thread starting and less arguing with obvious trolls).
By the way, looks like 2 feet of snow on Friday. I kid, I kid - see Knight Shift's thread - maybe 1-2" of snow on Friday N/W of I-95 (especially north of 78), with not much on pavement due to temps in the low/mid 30s and the March sun angle.
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Lou - no issue at all with people who have made their points about smart phones, even if they "complained." Which is why I was doing new threads for the past year or more - figured ease of access was more important than my relatively unimportant desire to have long threads.
At the risk of further annoying edfny and some others, here comes an I/me post. What has annoyed me is the baiting, trolling, finger-pointing, and downright douchebaggery of a small but vocal minority who either don't like snow or me or both. I have no idea why people like that wouldn't just ignore these threads, but they don't. I don't mind ball-busting at all (I do it, too - just look at some of my exchanges with 4Real - he'll at least argue from knowledge and data - we may disagree, but I think we respect each other, even if he gets a little crazy sometimes, lol) and I don't mind people disagreeing. It's the mean-spirited, "you suck/you're wrong" type stuff that is wearing - I should just ignore it, but I'm not good at that.
I imagine many have no idea that I often spend an hour or two per day perusing various websites (mostly the NWS, as they're the best, IMO), looking at model output, emailing with a few experts in the field, and then trying to deliver a message that helps people understand what might happen, while acknowledging the uncertainty of the forecast, which often can change significantly, even at the last minute.
When I started doing this about 15 years ago, I posted here and had a small email list and almost everyone seemed to at least appreciate the effort. Over the years, I haven't changed much in what I post here, but the site has grown a lot and the tenor, in general, is simply more confrontational and negative; on the other hand, my small email list of 15-20 people has grown into a "blog" style intranet website at work with over 1000 subscribers and a friends/family email list of nearly 200, plus I started posting the same info on Facebook.
I never get grief from any of them, even when a forecast busts, like the "blizzard" (sure, I got my share of teasing, but it was good-natured). Like anyone, I like positive feedback and I get a ton of that from these other outlets, which is why I've considered not making weather posts here anymore. I do appreciate the very nice feedback many have given me in these threads here, so I'm not trying to milk more positive feedback - just trying to explain my thought process. My guess is I'll continue to post about winter weather and gameday weather (and hurricanes, like Sandy), but I'll likely be more low key in doing it (less thread starting and less arguing with obvious trolls).
By the way, looks like 2 feet of snow on Friday. I kid, I kid - see Knight Shift's thread - maybe 1-2" of snow on Friday N/W of I-95 (especially north of 78), with not much on pavement due to temps in the low/mid 30s and the March sun angle.
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For the record I am VERY glad you do this kind of thing because I am one of those who really use/need the info you provide for my working life....it affects how I have my men respond and operate.
Thank you for what you do. And I mean that.
But as the ^^^new title^^^ (yay me! lol) of this thread states...
NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD :)
Not gonna say a word...
For the record I am VERY glad you do this kind of thing because I am one of those who really use/need the info you provide for my working life....it affects how I have my men respond and operate.
Thank you for what you do. And I mean that.
But as the ^^^new title^^^ (yay me! lol) of this thread states...
NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD :)
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
I think it's just the hoping for snow that irritates people. You're entitled to your opinion, but for me when it snows it wipes out my business during a season when I'm already historically down. For alot of people 2 or 3 bad months can put them under. Which is why I check these threads because I find the information really accurate for the most part, to see if I need to stress out for the next three or four days.
So for me, when you cheer for snow, you are indirectly, but not intentionally, rooting for me to fail. And if others are like me, then yes, they might be irritated. So can you really blame people for that at times? I don't say anything, but that's just me. Others though, are going to be much more vocal about it. So maybe, ease down the cheerleading a bit? Reporting what's on the horizon is fine, but really hoping for it is a little troubling for people like myself. It doesn't have to be about liking your opinion AND the report.
Again, I appreciate what you do. Just my .02
I think it's just the hoping for snow that irritates people. You're entitled to your opinion, but for me when it snows it wipes out my business during a season when I'm already historically down. For alot of people 2 or 3 bad months can put them under. Which is why I check these threads because I find the information really accurate for the most part, to see if I need to stress out for the next three or four days.
So for me, when you cheer for snow, you are indirectly, but not intentionally, rooting for me to fail. And if others are like me, then yes, they might be irritated. So can you really blame people for that at times? I don't say anything, but that's just me. Others though, are going to be much more vocal about it. So maybe, ease down the cheerleading a bit? Reporting what's on the horizon is fine, but really hoping for it is a little troubling for people like myself. It doesn't have to be about liking your opinion AND the report.
Again, I appreciate what you do. Just my .02
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I agree with you and am in the same predicament regarding my business. That being said, some of the guys rooting for snow could be the exact opposite of us. Maybe they plow, work at resorts, own second homes they rent during ski season, own a hardware store etc etc.....
Re: NEW STORM.....NEW THREAD
Originally posted by mildone:
Originally posted by RU848789:
It's the mean-spirited, "you suck/you're wrong" type stuff that is wearing - I should just ignore it, but I'm not good at that.
You suck. You're wrong.
+1.
RU848789, if you're not good at that why in the world would you venture over to the RWCJ board where that sort of stuff predominates ? Just saying.
Re: NEW STORM....NEW THREAD
May I try to get this discussion back on track? Currently the NWS is saying there is an 30% chance of precipitation late Thursday night, and an 80% chance of precipitation, with as much as 1-3 inches of snow. Road conditions are expected to be slippery from Friday afternoon into evening, with snow falling Friday evening. Does anyone have any comment on this forecast?
May I try to get this discussion back on track? Currently the NWS is saying there is an 30% chance of precipitation late Thursday night, and an 80% chance of precipitation, with as much as 1-3 inches of snow. Road conditions are expected to be slippery from Friday afternoon into evening, with snow falling Friday evening. Does anyone have any comment on this forecast?
Re: NEW STORM....NEW THREAD
listen this "probably" isn't going to be that big of a deal, most of the snow will fall in the daylight, temps are marginal, snowfall rates are not going to be that heavy
it will stick mainly on grass...yes there is a possibility it can start to stick in heavier periods or if it lingers longer...remember sunsets at almost 7 now not 5....
also March snow systems like this that are not very dynamic cannot really be predicted all that accurately in terms of whats going to stick until it happens..thats just how it is this deep in March with marginal temps and marginal snowfall rates. So yes you could get some slippery spots but most of the time you don't. With any salting of roads I would assume just about any major road should be fine.
Now of course I am waiting for 8 inches of snow to fall so some idiot can come back here and say how I was wrong.
as for Numbers and the rooting...I think that's why he gets some negative commentary..he is cheering snow on when most of the people here hate it, I think people don't mind snow actually every now and then but I think they get tired when the events come one right after another every single week. So posters are puzzled by someone coming here and rooting in on and talking gleeful about it.
I don't downplay snow, I am very cognizant of providing accurate information here as I have been accused from a few malcontents of downplaying snow and that's not true. What I will do is try to give an accurate picture and not just the snow lovers perspective who tend to side with the ways we can get snowfall or the most snow to occur. I like playing the ying to Numbers yang. Needs some balance. I don't see why he is getting all huffy about it, its not a big deal its just a discussion thread about snow.
This post was edited on 3/18 11:42 AM by bac2therac
listen this "probably" isn't going to be that big of a deal, most of the snow will fall in the daylight, temps are marginal, snowfall rates are not going to be that heavy
it will stick mainly on grass...yes there is a possibility it can start to stick in heavier periods or if it lingers longer...remember sunsets at almost 7 now not 5....
also March snow systems like this that are not very dynamic cannot really be predicted all that accurately in terms of whats going to stick until it happens..thats just how it is this deep in March with marginal temps and marginal snowfall rates. So yes you could get some slippery spots but most of the time you don't. With any salting of roads I would assume just about any major road should be fine.
Now of course I am waiting for 8 inches of snow to fall so some idiot can come back here and say how I was wrong.
as for Numbers and the rooting...I think that's why he gets some negative commentary..he is cheering snow on when most of the people here hate it, I think people don't mind snow actually every now and then but I think they get tired when the events come one right after another every single week. So posters are puzzled by someone coming here and rooting in on and talking gleeful about it.
I don't downplay snow, I am very cognizant of providing accurate information here as I have been accused from a few malcontents of downplaying snow and that's not true. What I will do is try to give an accurate picture and not just the snow lovers perspective who tend to side with the ways we can get snowfall or the most snow to occur. I like playing the ying to Numbers yang. Needs some balance. I don't see why he is getting all huffy about it, its not a big deal its just a discussion thread about snow.
This post was edited on 3/18 11:42 AM by bac2therac
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