OT: Severe T-Storm Watch for Entire Area, 7/6/21

Zak57

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Jul 5, 2011
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Had tix for Somerset Patriots game. Sat in parking a lot for an hour to wait the ran out. It stopped and got a little nice. Went into the park got a beer and 10 mins later they cancelled. Lightning all over the place for hours.
 

zappaa

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Jul 27, 2001
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I went for a night walk with my dog to take a look the tree damage with a golf club in my hand.
It wasn’t raining but the sky was ablaze with lightning, I felt the old guy in caddy shack realizing I was carrying a lightning rod.
Obviously I made it back, but I’m thinking it was a bad idea numbers….lol
 
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RU#1fan

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Lightning strikes were happening like every 5 seconds last night.
Crazy
 

rurichdog

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I went for a night walk with my dog to take a look the tree damage with a golf club in my hand.
It wasn’t raining but the sky was ablaze with lightning, I felt the old guy in caddy shack realizing I was carrying a lightning rod.
Obviously I made it back, but I’m thinking it was a bad idea numbers….lol
If it was a 7-iron you were lucky...because even God can't hit a 7-iron
 

greenknight

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My tailgating tent was a casualty of the storm was not home to take it down
 

Joey Bags

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You seem to know what you're talking about - did you take met classes or major in it? If so, as you would know, it's nearly impossible to get frontal/instability driven mesoscale events like this right more than a few hours in advance and even just a few hours in advance is really hard. That's why we see the same language on hot summer days so frequently, i.e., "A chance of showers and thunderstorms...chance of precipitation is X%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms." Vague enough to cover so many outcomes, because exact predictions are impossible in such situations.
Yes lol I was being tongue in cheek, these setups are tough to pin down though locally I've done pretty well over the years simply by understanding local trends in storm movement, atmospheric setup, etc. Yesterday was definitely an outlier day and probably would have warranted an enhanced risk from the SPC but hindsight is 20/20.

I follow the field closely as a hobbyist and took classes at RU. Member of Skywarn and COCORAHS and maintain a PWS. Would have majored in it but 18 year old me was more than a little terrified of 6 levels of math.
 
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RU848789

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Severe t-storm watch up for everywhere north of 195/276 tonight until 11 pm, but I'm not nearly as impressed by this setup as last night's. Not enough to trigger many storms south of maybe I-80, as per the NWS and Jeff Smith (Channel 7, who is very good), but we'll just have to see, as predicting these well is very difficult as has been said multiple times.
 

mdk01

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Aug 18, 2011
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Round 2 has started in Bergen County. Major lightning and downpour.
 

mdk01

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Drizzle and Thunder recently started here in Morris County

Add some sleet to the mix. Precip goes for 20 minutes, stops for 10 and starts up again. Just saw someone from the real estate office 1 floor down who also manages apartments who said there are a number of trees down in the area
 

RU848789

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Severe t-storm watch up for everywhere north of 195/276 tonight until 11 pm, but I'm not nearly as impressed by this setup as last night's. Not enough to trigger many storms south of maybe I-80, as per the NWS and Jeff Smith (Channel 7, who is very good), but we'll just have to see, as predicting these well is very difficult as has been said multiple times.
Yep, basically nothing fell in NJ yesterday afternoon/evening. Today is a different story. Serious potential for severe storms and heavy rains with some already in action. I just drove home from a round of disc golf at Allaire and it absolutely poured along 195 from Allaire to the Parkway and then north on the GSP for a couple of miles - this was 2-3" per hour rainfall, although I think it only lasted for 20 minutes or so - for about 10 minutes everyone was going about 40 mph.

And once these storms are over late in the evening, the moisture from TS Elsa will arrive in buckets with 2-4" of rain likely across most of the region from about midnight until about 7-8 am Friday, especially along and SE of the 95 corridor, i.e., closer to the center of Elsa which will be riding right up the NJ coastline overnight with 40-50 mph winds. Given the already saturated ground, there could be moderate to significant urban and stream flooding, which is why there's a flash flood watch posted. Storm surge is not a risk with this storm, fortunately.

175823WPCQPF_sm.gif
 

RU848789

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Add some sleet to the mix. Precip goes for 20 minutes, stops for 10 and starts up again. Just saw someone from the real estate office 1 floor down who also manages apartments who said there are a number of trees down in the area
Yeah some serious storms up there and a flash flood warning was just issued for parts of Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Bergen and NYC. Also, fyi, that would be hail, produced by t-storms, not sleet, which only occurs in winter storms...
 

Jm0513

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Yeah some serious storms up there and a flash flood warning was just issued for parts of Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Bergen and NYC. Also, fyi, that would be hail, produced by t-storms, not sleet, which only occurs in winter storms...
It sounds like my noise machine I use to sleep. I love it!
My dog is hiding behind me on the couch. It's been a rough week between fireworks and thunder.
 
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koleszar

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It sounds like my noise machine I use to sleep. I love it!
My dog is hiding behind me on the couch. It's been a rough week between fireworks and thunder.
During Wednesday night's storms my 110lb Great Pyrenees decided the safest place was on the bed in between my wife and me. My little 15lb daschund/yorkie unafraid watched the storm quietly through the French doors.
 
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RU848789

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A new severe t-storm warning just issued for SE Somerset and all of Middlesex...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
443 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 443 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dayton, or 8
miles south of New Brunswick, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to
roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Somerset, Edison, Old Bridge, East
Brunswick, South Brunswick, Sayreville, North Brunswick, Carteret,
Middlesex, Jamesburg, Cranbury, Colonia, Brownville, Dayton, North
Brunswick Township, Clearbrook Park, Whittingham and Kendall Park.

This includes the following highways...
New Jersey Turnpike between exits 9 and 12.
Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 10.
Garden State Parkway between mile markers 121 and 134.
 

Postman_1

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Just came down like crazy in Hamilton for about 5 minutes. Thunder/Lightning and wind. Seems done for now. @RU848789 do you have any links to good weather radar maps for our area? Ones that also show future precipitation? I use the one on the weather.com app but it’s always so bogged down and not that accurate for future precipitation.
 
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fatsam98

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T-storms were intense and lasted 2-3 hours up here in western Bergen County earlier this afternoon. Ton of rain, hail, lightning. Only just got power back.
 
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Section124

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T-storms were intense and lasted 2-3 hours up here in western Bergen County earlier this afternoon. Ton of rain, hail, lightning. Only just got power back.
Same area. I never lost power luckily. Those were some crazy rolling storms.
 

rurichdog

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A new severe t-storm warning just issued for SE Somerset and all of Middlesex...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
443 PM EDT Thu Jul 8 2021

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...

* Until 530 PM EDT.

* At 443 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dayton, or 8
miles south of New Brunswick, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to
roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Somerset, Edison, Old Bridge, East
Brunswick, South Brunswick, Sayreville, North Brunswick, Carteret,
Middlesex, Jamesburg, Cranbury, Colonia, Brownville, Dayton, North
Brunswick Township, Clearbrook Park, Whittingham and Kendall Park.

This includes the following highways...
New Jersey Turnpike between exits 9 and 12.
Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 10.
Garden State Parkway between mile markers 121 and 134.
That cell went straight up 1/130.
 
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mdk01

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T-storms were intense and lasted 2-3 hours up here in western Bergen County earlier this afternoon. Ton of rain, hail, lightning. Only just got power back.

Drove home and it's a real mix. The intense storms were localized and intense, so one minute there's street flossing and 2 miles later no problema. Just off Rte 4 in Hackensack there was a County Sheriff's car blocking a street that looked like it had about a foot deep water.
 
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RU848789

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Reason #379 why it's impossible to predict who will get what in these summertime instability-driven mesoscale t-storms/showers. Look at the incredible rainfall amounts (2-5") in NENJ and NYC, which resulted in major flooding of numerous roads and highways, tying up traffic all over the place, while most other locations got maybe 1/4-1/2" and many got none. We got a paltry 0.1" in Metuchen over the last 12 hours.

7jrXWvH.jpg
 

RU848789

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Just came down like crazy in Hamilton for about 5 minutes. Thunder/Lightning and wind. Seems done for now. @RU848789 do you have any links to good weather radar maps for our area? Ones that also show future precipitation? I use the one on the weather.com app but it’s always so bogged down and not that accurate for future precipitation.
I pretty much only look at past and current radar, since future radar is very unreliable and most sources don't say what the basis is for their future radars - look at the map of what has recently fallen that I just posted - there's no app on the planet that would've predicted that outcome in advance. I'd rather look at short term models, like the HRRR, which runs every hour and is decent for a few hours out.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2021070823&fh=1&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=ref1km_ptype&m=hrrr
 
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fatsam98

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Reason #379 why it's impossible to predict who will get what in these summertime instability-driven mesoscale t-storms/showers. Look at the incredible rainfall amounts (2-5") in NENJ and NYC, which resulted in major flooding of numerous roads and highways, tying up traffic all over the place, while most other locations got maybe 1/4-1/2" and many got none. We got a paltry 0.1" in Metuchen over the last 12 hours.

7jrXWvH.jpg
We just got another crazy downpour as well up here. Flooding all over. With Elsa to follow...
 

koleszar

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Thanks for the no heads up--tornado warning Monmouth and Ocean until 5:15 am
Had no idea I had that alert on and the phone was of course on full blast. Half awoke stumbled to turn it off and then couldn’t fall back asleep. Thanks National Weather Service for warning me about heavy rain and above average winds, my lawn furniture almost fell over. You saved the day before the ass crack of dawn. SMH
 
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Knight Shift

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Had no idea I had that alert on and the phone was of course on full blast. Half awoke stumbled to turn it off and then couldn’t fall back asleep. Thanks National Weather Service for warning me about heavy rain and above average winds, my lawn furniture almost fell over. You saved the day before the ass crack of dawn. SMH

I heard it and went back to sleep. Then, I was forced into the basement with my whole family. There was not a viable option to go back to sleep. It was like:

tenor.gif


Better to be safe than sorry. . . . . [roll]
 

rurichdog

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That sawtooth pattern offshore is interesting af. Is that because the radar is approaching its effective limits that far out?