OT: Severe T-Storm Watch for Entire Area, 7/6/21

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,359
31,079
113
Metuchen, NJ
For whatever reason, people have seemed more interested in summertime t-storms this year, so figured I'd let everyone know that the NWS in Philly and NYC have issued severe t-storm watches for the entire region (DE, Eastern PA, NJ, NYC/LI/CT/SENY) for this afternoon and evening. There's certainly enough "fuel" in the atmosphere, with such a high heat content - let's see if we get the "spark" needed to set them off (instability).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
149 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect until 10 PM covering eastern
PA through NJ south into northern Delmarva. Storms are developing at
this time over north central PA into upstate NY and should increase
in coverage and intensity while moving E/SE reaching our eastern PA
zones by the 4-5 pm time frame. The environment is favorable
for severe storms with ML CAPEs of 2000-3000 J/KG and 0-3 km
shear of 20- 25 knots. Also, DCAPEs are over 1000 j/kg.

Storms are shown to move in a more linear fashion through the
forecast area and weakening after sunset. Another line may
develop near southeast Pennsylvania and central New Jersey near
the surface/thermal trough that will be in place, before the
showers and thunderstorms shift southeast. Best timing for
convection to roll through the area is during the afternoon and
evening. SPC has much of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey
outlined in a slight risk for severe weather today, with a
marginal area for the remainder of our forecast area. Strong
winds, small hail, and moderate to heavy downpours will all be
possible.

Going into this evening, the storms should weaken and diminish in
coverage as they move south. With plenty of low level moisture in
the region and the flow remaining southwesterly, there will be the
potential for fog development overnight, especially in areas that
see decent amounts of rain. Overnight lows will remain warm and in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rumikenike

Joey Bags

All Conference
Sep 21, 2019
2,829
2,607
113
Would be somewhat shocked if this verifies. Usually these frontal passages favor SEPA and South Jersey/Coastal Central Jersey. Modeled Cape values seem to support this, point soundings in North Jersey are relatively stable given the environment.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ruvsi

JMORC2003

All Conference
Dec 22, 2008
4,499
2,391
113
Darn, just ran the sprinkler for an hour last night and again this morning. I could have saved some water
 
  • Like
Reactions: Postman_1

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,359
31,079
113
Metuchen, NJ
Radar really starting to light up in NE PA and SE NY and if that line holds together as it moves SE, mostly, CNJ/NNJ/NYC will be in line for some good storms in an hour or two...
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,359
31,079
113
Metuchen, NJ
Down the shore everything is all right. Sunny and nice in Wall.
Give it about 20 minutes...some hellacious lightning and high winds and heavy rain for the last 20 minutes here, although the worst is likely over but some showers still look to be on their way, but not severe ones.
 

Postman_1

All Conference
Gold Member
Mar 12, 2017
3,023
4,962
113
Got a 5 minute sun shower around 5:30 in Hamilton and that was it. Getting darker now with grey skies but the radar seems to miss us.
 
  • Like
Reactions: rurichdog

hoquat63

All American
Mar 17, 2005
5,735
3,097
113
Roared thru Dunellen beginning about 6:40, still have thunder and lightning.
 

RUDave_01

Senior
Dec 8, 2002
1,208
1,094
113
I am in the border of Hunterdon/Somerset counties and the storm was really nasty here for about 20 minutes; thankfully I was home and not driving in that.
 
  • Like
Reactions: shields

Knight Shift

Legend
May 19, 2011
63,854
57,345
113
Jersey Shore
Give it about 20 minutes...some hellacious lightning and high winds and heavy rain for the last 20 minutes here, although the worst is likely over but some showers still look to be on their way, but not severe ones.
About 30 minutes behind, but getting hammered now.
 

Joey Bags

All Conference
Sep 21, 2019
2,829
2,607
113
Would be somewhat shocked if this verifies. Usually these frontal passages favor SEPA and South Jersey/Coastal Central Jersey. Modeled Cape values seem to support this, point soundings in North Jersey are relatively stable given the environment.
This is why I'm glad I didn't make a career out of meteorology.

Would have been better off sticking to sniffing glue.
 

red sail

All Conference
Oct 11, 2007
2,756
1,343
113
That was a nasty storm that went through Princeton. My colleague sent a couple pics of his patio under a foot of water down in Tampa Bay. Good luck to those folks down there. Hopefully Elsa moves quickly through.
 

Joey Bags

All Conference
Sep 21, 2019
2,829
2,607
113
This cell moving through northern somerset country right now is packing a ton of CG lightning.
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,359
31,079
113
Metuchen, NJ
This is why I'm glad I didn't make a career out of meteorology.

Would have been better off sticking to sniffing glue.
You seem to know what you're talking about - did you take met classes or major in it? If so, as you would know, it's nearly impossible to get frontal/instability driven mesoscale events like this right more than a few hours in advance and even just a few hours in advance is really hard. That's why we see the same language on hot summer days so frequently, i.e., "A chance of showers and thunderstorms...chance of precipitation is X%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms." Vague enough to cover so many outcomes, because exact predictions are impossible in such situations.
 

ClassOf02

Heisman Winner
Sep 30, 2010
10,165
9,556
113
Just drove home from Washington Crossing PA to Lambertville and that was horrifying. Not a lot of rain, but constant lightning and some pretty strong wind gusts. Some of the drive is on back country roads with a ton of dead ash trees and I was keeping a close eye on them.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
18,337
8,919
113
For whatever reason, people have seemed more interested in summertime t-storms this year, so figured I'd let everyone know that the NWS in Philly and NYC have issued severe t-storm watches for the entire region (DE, Eastern PA, NJ, NYC/LI/CT/SENY) for this afternoon and evening. There's certainly enough "fuel" in the atmosphere, with such a high heat content - let's see if we get the "spark" needed to set them off (instability).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
149 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect until 10 PM covering eastern
PA through NJ south into northern Delmarva. Storms are developing at
this time over north central PA into upstate NY and should increase
in coverage and intensity while moving E/SE reaching our eastern PA
zones by the 4-5 pm time frame. The environment is favorable
for severe storms with ML CAPEs of 2000-3000 J/KG and 0-3 km
shear of 20- 25 knots. Also, DCAPEs are over 1000 j/kg.

Storms are shown to move in a more linear fashion through the
forecast area and weakening after sunset. Another line may
develop near southeast Pennsylvania and central New Jersey near
the surface/thermal trough that will be in place, before the
showers and thunderstorms shift southeast. Best timing for
convection to roll through the area is during the afternoon and
evening. SPC has much of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey
outlined in a slight risk for severe weather today, with a
marginal area for the remainder of our forecast area. Strong
winds, small hail, and moderate to heavy downpours will all be
possible.

Going into this evening, the storms should weaken and diminish in
coverage as they move south. With plenty of low level moisture in
the region and the flow remaining southwesterly, there will be the
potential for fog development overnight, especially in areas that
see decent amounts of rain. Overnight lows will remain warm and in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Big whoop dee doo. It's the summer. We have T-storms.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
18,337
8,919
113

Groz

Senior
Jul 28, 2001
2,253
1,570
113
Just drove through 2 gigantic flooded areas. Had no other way to get home. Hope my car is OK.

Best of Luck,
Groz
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,359
31,079
113
Metuchen, NJ
80K in NJ without power, as countless trees came down, taking down power lines. Fortunately, no injuries were reported. Could be some more storms tomorrow afternoon/evening, although likely not as widespread.
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,359
31,079
113
Metuchen, NJ
Lots of rain for many folks last night and at least some for almost everyone...

hEsteAH.jpg
 

Postman_1

All Conference
Gold Member
Mar 12, 2017
3,023
4,962
113