It's OFFICIAL, because the word OFFICIAL is in all caps, lol. Main reason for starting my own thread is it's way easier for me to search for such threads when I've started them (I do look back at these sometimes). My apologies if that annoys some, but it's what I'm going to do. I will do separate threads for each game, as many have requested.
So, we're right at the edge of where most meteorologists start seriously evaluating the medium range models, given that deterministic forecasts beyond 7-8 days simply aren't very accurate (has to do with chaos theory, the inaccuracy and paucity of initial and boundary conditions and error propagation over time), which is why no reputable sources publish forecasts beyond 7-8 days.
Anyway, right now, uncertainty on the forecast is extremely high, given the uncertainty in the large scale synoptic trends regionally and globally, particularly with regard to the eventual fate of Harvey and what that might mean for our area next Friday. A perfect way to illustrate the uncertainty is to look at the NWS forecasts from the Philly office for Middlesex County and the NYC office's forecast for adjacent Union County and SI. They're a bit different, although to be fair, it's not like the Philly office is calling for a washout - just noting the chance of showers vs. a dry forecast from NYC.
The Philly office forecast includes a chance of showers, as they're thinking there's some chance that the remnants of Harvey get caught up in and influence the evolution of the trough that is expected to be crossing the US late in the week - and that that could lead to some showers on Friday. The NYC office has more confidence in the trough and attendant cold front sweeping through the area by late Thursday or early Friday, leading to dry and pleasant conditions later on Friday. Hard to know who will be right this far out. Either way, temps appear to be close to seasonable (avg high/low is 82/61F) for Friday. Below are the relevant discussions from each.
NWS-Philly:
In addition, another digging shortwave trough will
reach the Northeast by the end of the week. With the remnants of
TC Harvey expected to be pulled northeastward late next week,
there appears to be a decent shot of a wet period at some point
near or shortly beyond the end of the long-term period. Stay
tuned.
NWS-NYC:
For Thursday and Friday, uncertainty stems from the timing of a cold
front passage. Will continue with the idea that it passes through
sometime during Thursday night. This would then bring a chance of a
shower or thunderstorm NW of the city during the day Thursday, then
to the rest of the area during the night. High pressure building in
on Friday will should then keep us dry with a continuation of below-
average temperatures.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
So, we're right at the edge of where most meteorologists start seriously evaluating the medium range models, given that deterministic forecasts beyond 7-8 days simply aren't very accurate (has to do with chaos theory, the inaccuracy and paucity of initial and boundary conditions and error propagation over time), which is why no reputable sources publish forecasts beyond 7-8 days.
Anyway, right now, uncertainty on the forecast is extremely high, given the uncertainty in the large scale synoptic trends regionally and globally, particularly with regard to the eventual fate of Harvey and what that might mean for our area next Friday. A perfect way to illustrate the uncertainty is to look at the NWS forecasts from the Philly office for Middlesex County and the NYC office's forecast for adjacent Union County and SI. They're a bit different, although to be fair, it's not like the Philly office is calling for a washout - just noting the chance of showers vs. a dry forecast from NYC.
The Philly office forecast includes a chance of showers, as they're thinking there's some chance that the remnants of Harvey get caught up in and influence the evolution of the trough that is expected to be crossing the US late in the week - and that that could lead to some showers on Friday. The NYC office has more confidence in the trough and attendant cold front sweeping through the area by late Thursday or early Friday, leading to dry and pleasant conditions later on Friday. Hard to know who will be right this far out. Either way, temps appear to be close to seasonable (avg high/low is 82/61F) for Friday. Below are the relevant discussions from each.
NWS-Philly:
In addition, another digging shortwave trough will
reach the Northeast by the end of the week. With the remnants of
TC Harvey expected to be pulled northeastward late next week,
there appears to be a decent shot of a wet period at some point
near or shortly beyond the end of the long-term period. Stay
tuned.
NWS-NYC:
For Thursday and Friday, uncertainty stems from the timing of a cold
front passage. Will continue with the idea that it passes through
sometime during Thursday night. This would then bring a chance of a
shower or thunderstorm NW of the city during the day Thursday, then
to the rest of the area during the night. High pressure building in
on Friday will should then keep us dry with a continuation of below-
average temperatures.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
