I am doing the same. But I also view the cost as similar to giving a kid the down payment on a house. The goal is to get them set up for the future without a ton of debt.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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My guess is him believing it will keep rates higher for longer.
The real estate market has been crushed for a year already. Adjusting for population we have the lowest sales per capita in US history over the past year.
However the yield curve flattening historically does normalize the spreads between the 10 year treasury and 30 year mortgage rates too. Right now very wide spread about 300bps. Historically its about 170bps.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Did this tonight if anyone wants to watch
“Why multi family real estate will experience a flash crash in 2024”
“Why multi family real estate will experience a flash crash in 2024”
Didn’t watch but the 10 yr yield is now above the Cap rate so I don’t see many deals getting done these days
This was a good video. Felt like I learned something and can hold my own in a cocktail party conversation.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Cap rates are different in every market and every asset class.
Not sure what to make of housing here.
Obviously we all know the supply issues but affordability at the worst in history. Just think if you were to buy a house in some north jersey suburbs right now with a new mortgage you would need the price of the home to go up well north of 10% a year just to break even (factoring in cost of mortgage, property taxes, maintenance) furthermore Factor in broker fees when you sell and capital gains taxes on any gain and you are almost guaranteed to take a huge loss. With t bills yielding 5.5% your much better sticking your down payment money in that and renting now. In the Manhattan area rents (for apartments at least) have actually fallen for the most part this year or have stood steady.
Now with that said obviously people buy homes for many reasons and not strictly financially but it's so ridiculous now the difference between renting and buying.
Obviously we all know the supply issues but affordability at the worst in history. Just think if you were to buy a house in some north jersey suburbs right now with a new mortgage you would need the price of the home to go up well north of 10% a year just to break even (factoring in cost of mortgage, property taxes, maintenance) furthermore Factor in broker fees when you sell and capital gains taxes on any gain and you are almost guaranteed to take a huge loss. With t bills yielding 5.5% your much better sticking your down payment money in that and renting now. In the Manhattan area rents (for apartments at least) have actually fallen for the most part this year or have stood steady.
Now with that said obviously people buy homes for many reasons and not strictly financially but it's so ridiculous now the difference between renting and buying.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Nothing burger. See what NY did today. No the listing agreement rather than the seller signing and it says 5%, 2.5% sell side, 2.5% buy side, it will now say 2.5% to the sell side and 2.5% to the buy side.
Basically they changed a word or two.
It was money hungry attorneys looking for a buck, thats the only ones make money from the suit
Your presentation stated that rent growth will roar back after 2025. If you had to forecast a national average rent growth rate from say 2025 to 2028, what would you peg it at?
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Latter half of 2025 new supply really begins to taper off.
The 4 year average from 2025-2028? Somewhere between 4.5-5% would be my prediction at the moment based on household formation, headship, and supply pipeline.
I just came back from a residential property management convention and spoke to PMs in multiple markets. They all told me rents are down from last year, which is good for inflation.
Market now crossing past 8% on mortgage rates. I predicted it could go that high. If it keeps going...idk anymore.
I continue to have deals blowing up every time. Just got another one tonight where the buyer claims they got denied on their mortgage (bullcrap) when in reality they had time to think about it and realized they didn't want to pay 20% over asking.
Market now crossing past 8% on mortgage rates. I predicted it could go that high. If it keeps going...idk anymore.
I continue to have deals blowing up every time. Just got another one tonight where the buyer claims they got denied on their mortgage (bullcrap) when in reality they had time to think about it and realized they didn't want to pay 20% over asking.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
All time low in annualized home sales when adjusted for population. Thing is theres just as little supply. If supply was even near normal levels prices would be tanking
Lol
I think @kyk1827 knows what he’s talking about. I mean the guy did nail that we aren’t in a single-family Bubble
On another note , remember all the talk a few years back that millennials loved cities and everyone was fleeing the suburbs ?? What a crock of sh+t that all turned out to be
Any percentages on amount down? We have not raised rents on our tenants for over 5 years. We like our tenants and they treat our places well .
Recently helped a relo employee find a 1 BR apartment in Middlesex county. Was shocked that nicer 1BR were asking $2500 and higher. He took a cheap place in South River for $1150 including heat and hot water.
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Prices are up in Hudson County and the hot walkable towns (Westfield, Montclair etc) and even ones no one ever really thought of much like Bloomfield. The biggest increase though is at the shore because less people have to go into the office and have more time to enjoy it. That boomers using their retirement or giving it to their millennials kids. Some of the prices I see in Monmouth and Northern Ocean you'd think it was Monaco.
i made an entire separate thread on how Jersey shore prices were insanity and completely over priced and I stand by that. Pay an ass ton of money to use a home 3 months a year at best.
If by Northern Ocean you mean Jackson those prices are being driven by the Orthodox.
Based on what I see it's people who live there full time or at least when weather permits, less so just for investing though there is some of it.
There's that but I saw an ad for a house in Lavalette that was 2.6M and not even a water view. Nice house but wild pricing. A couple of different phenomena.
Know the house. It’s getting more year round residences. People are trading in their North Jersey homes for beach houses.
What’s going on with KYK? He nuked this account and his Twitter account. I see there’s a thread about him on the pay board.
He's posting on X (it's not twitter!! (yes it is, not it's not, yes it is, not it's not)
Geeen street is a smart firm. Know them well.
Coincides with this news.
MacKenzie Capital Announces Tender Offer To BREIT Investors At 38% Discount
In a mini-tender offer, MacKenzie targeted Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust investors seeking immediate liquidity.
www.bisnow.com
That tender offer will hurt. Lots of institutional and hi net worth money in that product. Not to mention the actual hard asset that is in freefall.
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Kyle could get us riled, but he is a good fan. Hope he did not leave because he got mad. We all want the same things, but we see the path differently. It's not personal, it's fandom.
One of my clients who bought a 5 cap in 2021 with an I/O note (which most syndicators do) emailed me at 1030 at night this week that they might need to bring property management in-house because their rates are re-setting and they won't cash flow. Multi-family is in trouble as well as other CRE.
It was true at the time…I was looking to upgrade in my suburban area and certain neighborhoods were dead because they were too remote and no train-line to NYC. Homes sat for months and the more expensive ones sometimes a year or more. My broker talked me out of some sick homes saying resale would be an issue - so I passed. Well, now those same neighborhoods are basically untouchable. Insane reversal in just 3 years. You have to wonder when urban/city environment makes a true comeback.
So multi family and commerical is gonna crash? Single-family gonna sore and prices increase when rates go down?
I got it !
I got it !
I understand your thinking. The pandemic caused a big change by accelerating the growth of remote work. Many people no longer need to commute five days a week, so commuting problems are not as important as in the past. Remote work also created a demand for larger houses so that people would have space to work at home. Finally, millennials had kids and, understandably, wanted the best schools for them. All of these developments made suburbs more desirable. Like you, I wonder if the urban environment will ever become chic.
LOL. Rents are at all time high in NYC. Guess nobody goes there anymore because it’s too crowded.
lol. Didn’t mean nyc or cities. Although, let’s be honest NYC has seen better days . Adams is making Diblasio look good.
All those so called experts mentioning the death of the suburbs were wrong
Yes, death of suburbs were wrong. Just like death if cities are wrong. NYC is back.
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