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OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

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Yes, death of suburbs were wrong. Just like death if cities are wrong. NYC is back.
I don’t remember many folks saying death of NYC. That’s a pretty resilient place and has had major ups and downs.
The suburbs of nyc high property values reflect how strong nyc is
 
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I don’t remember many folks saying death of NYC. That’s a pretty resilient place and has had major ups and downs.
The suburbs of nyc high property values reflect how strong nyc is
You "don't remember many folks saying death of NYC" because you are young. The city was in terrible shape in the mid-1970s, and real estate values reflected that.
 
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I understand your thinking. The pandemic caused a big change by accelerating the growth of remote work. Many people no longer need to commute five days a week, so commuting problems are not as important as in the past. Remote work also created a demand for larger houses so that people would have space to work at home. Finally, millennials had kids and, understandably, wanted the best schools for them. All of these developments made suburbs more desirable. Like you, I wonder if the urban environment will ever become chic.
Some discussion of remote work feelings of Millennials and GenZ.

 
Some discussion of remote work feelings of Millennials and GenZ.

Interesting. As a professor, I had *many* colleagues who came into the office only to teach their classes and who did all their research/writing from home. I, by contrast, worked a traditional day in the office and worked from home only to supplement that. I continue to think that my approach was better. Those who worked from home did not know what was going on and sacrificed the opportunity to build personal and scholarly connections with their colleagues.
 
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Interesting. As a professor, I had *many* colleagues who came into the office only to teach their classes and who did all their research/writing from home. I, by contrast, worked a traditional day in the office and worked from home only to supplement that. I continue to think that my approach was better. Those who worked from home did not know what was going on and sacrificed the opportunity to build personal and scholarly connections with their colleagues.
Had a discussion with a remote colleague (who has no opportunity to come to office bc too far away) in my age group. We agreed that being in the office is fantastic when there is a group there to bounce an idea off of someone else, review something you are having a difficult time with or just shoot the breeze to blow off a little steam. The remote colleague felt there was a barrier to doing that over Teams or picking up the phone. I explained there should be no such barrier, but we agreed it is more organic and easy when everyone is office together. For legal work, collaboration is important. Can't count the number of times that excellent ideas to make a written document or brief stronger came about due to in person collaboration. Can count that same thing on one hand when working remotely during the pandemic.
 
Had a discussion with a remote colleague (who has no opportunity to come to office bc too far away) in my age group. We agreed that being in the office is fantastic when there is a group there to bounce an idea off of someone else, review something you are having a difficult time with or just shoot the breeze to blow off a little steam. The remote colleague felt there was a barrier to doing that over Teams or picking up the phone. I explained there should be no such barrier, but we agreed it is more organic and easy when everyone is office together. For legal work, collaboration is important. Can't count the number of times that excellent ideas to make a written document or brief stronger came about due to in person collaboration. Can count that same thing on one hand when working remotely during the pandemic.
This is true even in academe, where professors tend to work alone (e.g. I never co-authored anything in academe, while of course I worked with others in private practice just as you do.) Talking to a colleague about how to teach something (I visited colleagues constantly to talk about that) or about your work is often quite helpful. I would think this is true in lots of contexts.
 
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Or maybe he is panicking over this news, although not sure what the alternative solution is.

I'm not sure either. It used to be that the seller paid the agent the full commission and the agent would split it with the agent who had brought in the buyer. They both were working for the seller. The idea of a buyer's agent was for the buyer to have someone working only for him. Are we going to go back to the old days?
 
I'm not sure either. It used to be that the seller paid the agent the full commission and the agent would split it with the agent who had brought in the buyer. They both were working for the seller. The idea of a buyer's agent was for the buyer to have someone working only for him. Are we going to go back to the old days?

isn't the agreement between the seller and the broker? If so, why should anyone care if i want to sell my house and pay someone a 5% commission to do it?
 
isn't the agreement between the seller and the broker? If so, why should anyone care if i want to sell my house and pay someone a 5% commission to do it?
As I understand it, the National Association of Realtors (which, by the way, owns the rights to the term "realtor") was found to be conspiring to force sellers to pay the buyer's agent.
 
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Every house I sold (4) has that spelled out in the contract though, splitting the commission between the 2.
I understand that. But the verdict says it is illegal for realtors to combine together to agree that all of their contracts with sellers contain that term. Such a combination amounts to price-fixing, which is barred by the antitrust laws. The fact that you agree to the term does not take away from it being price-fixing.
 
Interest rates and increase operating cost.
Two sets of questions:

Why are interest rates more of a problem for multifamily than for single-family? Are mortgages for multifamily units adjustable or have shorter terms than those for single families? I ask because many single families have "golden handcuffs:" long-term mortgages at low interest rates that they do not want to give up by trading up for new houses.

Second, why can't multifamily owners simply pass on their operating costs to their tenants? Has the market for rentals softened? I would think demand would have increased because high interest rates have made it so hard to afford to buy.

I don't ask these questions to challenge what you're saying; I'm just interested in finding out what's going on and why. Thanks in advance!!
 
Two sets of questions:

Why are interest rates more of a problem for multifamily than for single-family? Are mortgages for multifamily units adjustable or have shorter terms than those for single families? I ask because many single families have "golden handcuffs:" long-term mortgages at low interest rates that they do not want to give up by trading up for new houses.

Second, why can't multifamily owners simply pass on their operating costs to their tenants? Has the market for rentals softened? I would think demand would have increased because high interest rates have made it so hard to afford to buy.

I don't ask these questions to challenge what you're saying; I'm just interested in finding out what's going on and why. Thanks in advance!!
Floating rate vs fixed rate. Plus most commercial loans are shorter term (5-10 yrs).

Costs are going up too fast to pass it on. Insurance in FL have increased by 400%. Can’t pass that on.
 
I don’t really understand this. The article talks about all these wealthy alums in historically LCOL areas that are buying or renting luxury houses all of a sudden for their kids to go to school or to use for gameday.

Why were people not deploying their capital this way 5, 10, or 15 years ago when housing was cheaper? Why now all of a sudden when the market is at ATHs for either buying or renting?
 
My employer (large bank) just announced a 50% reduction in corporate real estate over the next year. We’re selling off a number of large buildings in NJ.
 
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Things are starting to crack.

Its an election year so a lot of garbage "money" (Fed has a trillion in emergency funds on the ramp) will keep the sugar highs going for awhile. But the derivative nightmare is looming. U.K. Prime Minister Liz Trusshad to resign after her tax cut proposal because the bankers new derivative implosion would take the country down.

Derivatives are unicorns leading people into black holes. In the massive over over financialization of the economy derivatives came to serve as security but they are often vague and inchoate - and they fall into cracks internationally as regs vary, Chase has 70 billion in derivatives and who knows what that even means. If a bank fails, by law derivatives need to be sorted before FDIC pays account holder (unsecured creditors) loses. Sorting derivatives is a nightmare. People who paid for things and think they own them will find out they dont when insolvency soars up and down the chains

This sophisticated expert reveals the scope of the con and reveals the shadows on the wall in financial Disney Land



CHRIS MARTENSON with author

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Free Book
 
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My employer (large bank) just announced a 50% reduction in corporate real estate over the next year. We’re selling off a number of large buildings in NJ.
Are these buildings you guys foreclosed on? Didn’t know banks own actual real estate unless it’s REO book.
 
Just reporting the pure numbers here from the builder I work for. Over the last 4 weeks we saw a 23% increase in finance applications and 15% increase in contracts written as compared to the previous 4 weeks. Market never really dried up for builders as there's still a substantial housing shortage, it just looks like the dam is starting to break for some of those waiting for rates to come down as they just dropped under 7% for the first time since June.

 
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My employer (large bank) just announced a 50% reduction in corporate real estate over the next year. We’re selling off a number of large buildings in NJ.
Banks are getting HAMMERED right now on low interest loans they bought/took on pre-2021. There's several LARGE banks (Most notably BMO Harris) who have stopped doing indirect auto loans entirely as a result.

This doesn't surprise me
 
I don’t really understand this. The article talks about all these wealthy alums in historically LCOL areas that are buying or renting luxury houses all of a sudden for their kids to go to school or to use for gameday.

Why were people not deploying their capital this way 5, 10, or 15 years ago when housing was cheaper? Why now all of a sudden when the market is at ATHs for either buying or renting?

I think CFB has grown in popularity. I also think that you have millennials with more $ who love spending on experiences.

Based on the numbers in the article, these people are still making a massive profit.

I kind of wonder if anyone has done this in Piscataway.
 
2024 is going to be a very strong year in the housing market IMO. Rates are thawing out the market and IF inflation data continues to trend positive and the FED starts cutting rates 75-100 bps you will see a strong housing market still.

I actually think if rates get low enough, more sellers will flood the market being okay with trading out a 3.5-4 rate for a 5.5-6 rate and that would stabilize the market more.
 
2024 is going to be a very strong year in the housing market IMO. Rates are thawing out the market and IF inflation data continues to trend positive and the FED starts cutting rates 75-100 bps you will see a strong housing market still.

I actually think if rates get low enough, more sellers will flood the market being okay with trading out a 3.5-4 rate for a 5.5-6 rate and that would stabilize the market more.
There's very little supply up in Boston. Super frustrating. I know a lot of people who would like to buy a house, but it's tough right now. Lower rates would help affordability and bring supply on the market, so it'll hopefully balance out and transaction volumes will be higher but prices will be somewhat flat.
 
2024 is going to be a very strong year in the housing market IMO. Rates are thawing out the market and IF inflation data continues to trend positive and the FED starts cutting rates 75-100 bps you will see a strong housing market still.

I actually think if rates get low enough, more sellers will flood the market being okay with trading out a 3.5-4 rate for a 5.5-6 rate and that would stabilize the market more.
Entirely possible assuming prices continue to increase once the rates come down further (which they likely will) and people will have enough equity in their current homes to cash out and absorb that increase in rate by coming to the table with a six figure down payment.

In the mean time though, working in sales for a builder… 2024 is looking REAL NICE
 
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I’m going contrarian here. Prices fall even with lower rates. Job market will be weaker and confidence will be down.
 
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