My costs have not gone up 30% in 3 years.
Its not selfish it probably is the main factor in voting. People vote for what they see as the person who will provide the best chance to deliver a benefit to them.
I'm more of a hawk than a dove. I would be all for keeping it tight. Having inflation increase nearly 30% in 3 years and then only going up 2-5% a year still sucks. I don't think they want to repeat the 70s/80s when they started cutting too quickly and then inflation spiked again.
No. You can go and do your own homework. Start with CPI YOY which is a flawed metric.
Why would I start with a flawed metric. You have made 2 financial claims, and both are not correct.
This has almost zero similarities to 70’s-80’s. This was a supply shock driven by covid.
I know that. I am explaining the Fed's rationale. This has been discussed in by people in the industry.
I think its jaw boning by the fed to maintain tight conditions any time they mention/leak 70’s/80’s volcker narrative. But make no mistake, the December 13th presser was the pivot. Austin Gollsbee has even begun shitposting on twitter. Theyve declared victory.
Yeah so IT and attorney I didn't see much of a slow down from those industry groups, so that makes sense. There have certainly been recessionary pockets in different industries.
IDK, in our space, patents, seems like no growth, pinching pennies or layoffs and cutbacks. Trying to get a rate increase through a fortune 500 company is pain.
Not to pile on but the really interesting statement that was made was ‘real estate was an absolute bloodbath this year’. Here I am, working directly in real estate, having my best year of all time…. Might just be that the news these people consume simply isn’t telling the reality, or the whole story anyway
Builders are less affected or are in a different class than real estate agents or mortgage brokers. Some people are hurt more than other and probably 80% feel the inflation but aren’t hurt by it, they adjust. Those same people that are really affected in the real estate industry don’t mention that their income was unreal for the last few years when house prices did go up 30% a year causing the inflation. They dislike the fact that their income isn’t increasing significantly every year like the past several years.
Mostly temporary buydowns but yes we absolutely do this. That’s how I’ve been selling all year as a builder. people close and we pay for a 2/1 buydown, bank throws in a re-fi that doesn’t expire for 10 years and they walk away happy. Fortunately with rates coming back to earth it’s worked out very well for my buyers
What you just described is a far cry from ‘real estate is a bloodbath’.
Real estate was a bloodbath this year.
Is it down 50% from sales that the previous 2 years were up from some astronomical high number compared to “normal “ years?
And that happens almost every year.
The 10 years from 2012-2021 median exisiting home sales per year was 6.02 million. We are currently at this moment trending at sub 4,000,000 annualized for 2023 based on october data.
not really. Interest rate should impact everyone. Just a lot of anomalies in the market/economy.
Then you’re the outlier. Every lender, title company, home inspector and most realtors I spoke to this year had a very down year.
You are talking to a guy who thinks there has been no inflation.
I am 65 so my experience with interest rates makes it difficult to get overly concerned that these rates are so bad.
Crybaby I never said no inflation. I said show me where it was 30%.
Youre looking at the wrong numbers. Id LOVE to have bought at those basis’ when rates were 15-20% as the monthly payment as % of income wasnt even remotely close to what it is today. Housing was MUCH MORE affordable when rates were 15-20% decades ago than they are at 6-8% at todays prices
You would know better than me. I bought or sold a home in 1986 and 1996. In 1986 it seemed very expensive and I purchased a home that was really not worth the cost. I sold in 1996 and purchased a new home for a very cheap price but I also would have lost money on my first home if I did not subdivide the property and sell off a lot.
That makes sense. But put yourself in someone in their late 20s to early 30s shoes. Today’s home prices at today's rates is punitive. Rates were way too low but for way too long. Remember all the talk about the new normal?
Yes, it's called a dose of reality. As the mutual fund prospectus says, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Some people never learn that lesson.
Agreed. I remember the double digit mortgage rates my parents paid. People got spoiled by near zero rates. But the higher rates coupled with the astronomical price increases makes it tough on first time buyers.
I have a 33-year-old daughter who is house hunting. I find the prices high, but I will have to do the math to see if the monthly cost is a greater percentage than we had to pay.
I bought my first place in 1999 and rule was 3x your annual income. Now they are saying 3.5 to 5. Most of that was due to low rates.
Not really. Median total volume of homes sold over the past decade was just about 6 million. Its been below 4,000,000 annualized the past 18 months. It’s not called a dose of reality, it’s called an industry in recession. The overall economy doesnt have to be in recession while certain sectors are.
Sales going down because fewer and fewer people can afford the high prices. It will go down slowly over 10-20 years but be a sluggish market during that period.
Theres going to be a demo referred to as the post covid home buying millenials vs pre-covid home buying millenials. Its such a stark contrast. Has I bought my home 4 years ago, i wouldve gotten it for $200K less and my monthly payment would be about $2,000 less per month. Same exact house.
