Exactly. Bought in 2019 in Basking Ridge. I was the only offer and paid nearly 10% under asking. I bought the house for the same price they had paid in 2012. That house today is 30%+ more expensive and the mortgage payment 75% more.
I never said that inflation in one segment of the economy might have had 30% increase. You made the point that we had 30% inflation in reference to the entire economy not just real estate.
Not trying to be argumentative, but it is reality. Declining birth rates, declining marriage rates, and younger people not being as set on home ownership is going to put a sent in the demand side of supply and demand. And real estate is cyclical. Even though the long term trend is up. There will be pullbacks and troughs, and that is healthy. Have you gone back to the real estate pullback of the early 1990s?
I asked for the source that says that.
So you housing prices to go down to reduce inflation. It will go down slowly over a10-20 years and hurt your income.
In my line of work inflation has soared. As a point of reference, concrete went up some 32% in just the last three years. Went from $1160.00 for 10 yds. to $1530.00. Concrete block went from $1.68 a block to $2.36 almost 40%.
You know what also has soared? Construction and service worker charges to consumers. My sprinkler guy told me other sprinkler guys are charging $150 per hour for service calls to replair lawn sprinklers. A few years ago, charges were close to $50 per hour. $150 per hour is about as much our office bills out experienced paralegals, and corporatiins won't entertain rate increases. I'm going to open a lawn sprinkler shop so I can make the really big bucks.
And I am not arguing that, but you are not claiming the inflation is at 40%.
I am lucky my sprinkler guy had a minimum increase to the eservice he provides.
I do most of my own. It's a labor of love and insanity. Changed my own well pump with the help of the owner of the company, who, back in 2017 charged $75/hour. He jokes with me that when I retire from my current job, I could be his lawn sprinkler tech. At the rate rates are going, that might be a good move.
I am a number 1 blade all around. Clean my eyebrows, ears and mustache. Cut is $20 plus $5 tip.
1) millenials and gen z are ENORMOUS. Demographic issues are decades away and can always be backfilled with in migration.
I don't have time to get in a pissing match with someone who is this obtuse on the topic. It's everywhere around you. Shut off the TV and laptop and go talk to people. You have to be tone deaf to not understand this at this point. Done discussing it with you.
Something that has never happened in history I should count on happening? I don't think so my friend.
No one wants to talk about the looming skilled trades labor shortage. 2/3 of people in skilled trades are over 40. They need to expand H2B visas and stop pushing this bullshit narrative that everyone needs to go to college.
$250-$300 a day is for how many hours? 8 hours or 10 hours? How many days a week?
8 hours. Sometimes you need to buy them lunch. I have also heard $350 from some of our crews. Nuts.
Where are you finding your construction people. I did a home reno in western PA. Lead guy was 100 an hour and the cheapest helper was 40. So 800 a day for the lead guy. Each day cost me around 2,000 when they had a handful of guys there working. 350 sounds dirt cheap. And those prices were going up. The plumber and electrician were bananas expensive. Prob closer to 150 an hour for the plumber. If you did a home reno you felt the inflation massively. Windows were insane and the quality was crap.
Rates likely won’t go below 4% unless there is a major catastrophe. Sadly, the next global inflection point will likely be when China invades Taiwan, which very well could happen by 2030. The global economic disruptions will probably force mass rate cuts and sub 4 or even 3 rates could return. Of course, this is nothing anyone should bank on, a reversion to a 5% run rate under normal economic conditions is most likely.
That’s the point. Sure real estate is down from 2021-2022 levels, that was an insane market the likes of which we hopefully will never see again for how much overall damage it did to the market. That being said compared to any normal period, say 2016-2019 for example, the market was similar
It certainly wasn’t a ‘very down year’. It was down compared to 2021 sure, that was also an unsustainable market
I think where you and @tom1944 may be missing each other is that for what he is purchasing at this stage of life, he is not seeing or feeling the effects of inflation. However, anyone in construction, manufacturing, etc that needs skilled trades is painfully feeling the effects of inflation.
I have had multiple people tell me it's the worst year of their career.
Inflation is in all sectors not just construction and housing. The dude is completely oblivious on the topic at this point and we are hijacking a good thread that's about housing.
The dude realizes there is inflation. The other dude made an erroneous claim that it was 30% and has failed to prove that but changes the topic instead.
Correct.
We have had construction projects done from 2017 through 2020.
I should be complaining because I got to live on a small social security and pension check. However, I did accumulate enough assets that I let the money make the money.
Since you brought it up eggs used to be $1.89 for an 18 pack of Shop Rite brand. It was still $3.79 the past few weeks. So more than 30% inflation. I could go on and on.
No denying there is inflation. As I mentioned it has been mitigated for me by some unique circumstances. One of which is an increase in income.
You are correct, it will end up roughly between 15-18% total between 2021 to 2023. This is assuming 2023 is roughly at 4% on average for the year.
if they started in 2021 I believe that. I work directly in the business and am telling you it was still a phenomenal year overall. And I 100% have the sales slips to back it up
Phenomenal year overall is totally at odds with every single piece of available data.
