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OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

Theres going to be a demo referred to as the post covid home buying millenials vs pre-covid home buying millenials. Its such a stark contrast. Has I bought my home 4 years ago, i wouldve gotten it for $200K less and my monthly payment would be about $2,000 less per month. Same exact house.
Exactly. Bought in 2019 in Basking Ridge. I was the only offer and paid nearly 10% under asking. I bought the house for the same price they had paid in 2012. That house today is 30%+ more expensive and the mortgage payment 75% more.

Houses in my neighborhood today usually go for asking or 10% higher. Almost nothing under 1M now.

There is one easy example of 30% inflation @tom1944
 
Exactly. Bought in 2019 in Basking Ridge. I was the only offer and paid nearly 10% under asking. I bought the house for the same price they had paid in 2012. That house today is 30%+ more expensive and the mortgage payment 75% more.

Houses in my neighborhood today usually go for asking or 10% higher. Almost nothing under 1M now.

There is one easy example of 30% inflation @tom1944
I never said that inflation in one segment of the economy might have had 30% increase. You made the point that we had 30% inflation in reference to the entire economy not just real estate.

And do not pretend this is the first-time real estate prices have surged.

Do not get defensive because you exaggerated 2 aspects of the economy- the stock market and inflation and now are trying to change the narrative.
 
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Not really. Median total volume of homes sold over the past decade was just about 6 million. Its been below 4,000,000 annualized the past 18 months. It’s not called a dose of reality, it’s called an industry in recession. The overall economy doesnt have to be in recession while certain sectors are.
Not trying to be argumentative, but it is reality. Declining birth rates, declining marriage rates, and younger people not being as set on home ownership is going to put a sent in the demand side of supply and demand. And real estate is cyclical. Even though the long term trend is up. There will be pullbacks and troughs, and that is healthy. Have you gone back to the real estate pullback of the early 1990s?
 
I never said that inflation in one segment of the economy might have had 30% increase. You made the point that we had 30% inflation in reference to the entire economy not just real estate.

And do not pretend this is the first-time real estate prices have surged.

Do not get defensive because you exaggerated 2 aspects of the economy- the stock market and inflation and now are trying to change the narrative.
It is across the entire economy. Lol where have you been for 3 years?
 
It is across the entire economy. Lol where have you been for 3 years?
I asked for the source that says that.

I know your reply- I am not going to do your homework for you- the response that people who make up stuff always give when they cannot produce proof of what they say.
 
Exactly. Bought in 2019 in Basking Ridge. I was the only offer and paid nearly 10% under asking. I bought the house for the same price they had paid in 2012. That house today is 30%+ more expensive and the mortgage payment 75% more.

Houses in my neighborhood today usually go for asking or 10% higher. Almost nothing under 1M now.

There is one easy example of 30% inflation @tom1944
So you housing prices to go down to reduce inflation. It will go down slowly over a10-20 years and hurt your income.
 
I never said that inflation in one segment of the economy might have had 30% increase. You made the point that we had 30% inflation in reference to the entire economy not just real estate.

And do not pretend this is the first-time real estate prices have surged.

Do not get defensive because you exaggerated 2 aspects of the economy- the stock market and inflation and now are trying to change the narrative.
In my line of work inflation has soared. As a point of reference, concrete went up some 32% in just the last three years. Went from $1160.00 for 10 yds. to $1530.00. Concrete block went from $1.68 a block to $2.36 almost 40%.

It's actually been pretty insane trying to keep up. I got hit with an inflation surcharge on my pole barn just two years ago. Barn was set to cost $38k within less than a year of the contract went to $44.5k. It was Mennonites, doing it from Lancaster and really couldn't complain as they were still cheaper.
 
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In my line of work inflation has soared. As a point of reference, concrete went up some 32% in just the last three years. Went from $1160.00 for 10 yds. to $1530.00. Concrete block went from $1.68 a block to $2.36 almost 40%.

It's actually been pretty insane trying to keep up. I got hit with an inflation surcharge on my pole barn just two years ago. Barn was set to cost $38k within less than a year of the contract went to $44.5k. It was Mennonites, doing it from Lancaster and really couldn't complain as they were still cheaper.
You know what also has soared? Construction and service worker charges to consumers. My sprinkler guy told me other sprinkler guys are charging $150 per hour for service calls to replair lawn sprinklers. A few years ago, charges were close to $50 per hour. $150 per hour is about as much our office bills out experienced paralegals, and corporatiins won't entertain rate increases. I'm going to open a lawn sprinkler shop so I can make the really big bucks.
 
In my line of work inflation has soared. As a point of reference, concrete went up some 32% in just the last three years. Went from $1160.00 for 10 yds. to $1530.00. Concrete block went from $1.68 a block to $2.36 almost 40%.

It's actually been pretty insane trying to keep up. I got hit with an inflation surcharge on my pole barn just two years ago. Barn was set to cost $38k within less than a year of the contract went to $44.5k. It was Mennonites, doing it from Lancaster and really couldn't complain as they were still cheaper.
And I am not arguing that, but you are not claiming the inflation is at 40%.

Construction increases is a reason my wife and I have delayed some projects.
 
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You know what also has soared? Construction and service worker charges to consumers. My sprinkler guy told me other sprinkler guys are charging $150 per hour for service calls to replair lawn sprinklers. A few years ago, charges were close to $50 per hour. $150 per hour is about as much our office bills out experienced paralegals, and corporatiins won't entertain rate increases. I'm going to open a lawn sprinkler shop so I can make the really big bucks.
I am lucky my sprinkler guy had a minimum increase to the eservice he provides.

He likes me though because I have used him for years and never gave him a hard time. He will not work for a few people in my neighborhood because they were unreasonable.

I pay cash and we do not worry about change so the first time I overpaid him and did not make a big deal he could not give me change he just gave me credit a year later. The other people questioned his integrity and made a big deal about it.
 
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I am lucky my sprinkler guy had a minimum increase to the eservice he provides.

He likes me though because I have used him for years and never gave him a hard time. He will not work for a few people in my neighborhood because they were unreasonable.

I pay cash and we do not worry about change so the first time I overpaid him and did not make a big deal he could not give me change he just gave me credit a year later. The other people questioned his integrity and made a big deal about it.
I do most of my own. It's a labor of love and insanity. Changed my own well pump with the help of the owner of the company, who, back in 2017 charged $75/hour. He jokes with me that when I retire from my current job, I could be his lawn sprinkler tech. At the rate rates are going, that might be a good move.
 
Yeah, some business are just taking advantage. My barber shop increase from $50 to $60 the last 2 years. Time to find someone else.
 
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Yeah, some business are just taking advantage. My barber shop increase from $50 to $60 the last 2 years. Time to find someone else.
I am a number 1 blade all around. Clean my eyebrows, ears and mustache. Cut is $20 plus $5 tip.

I should just do it myself, but I like going to the barbershop.
 
Not trying to be argumentative, but it is reality. Declining birth rates, declining marriage rates, and younger people not being as set on home ownership is going to put a sent in the demand side of supply and demand. And real estate is cyclical. Even though the long term trend is up. There will be pullbacks and troughs, and that is healthy. Have you gone back to the real estate pullback of the early 1990s?
1) millenials and gen z are ENORMOUS. Demographic issues are decades away and can always be backfilled with in migration.

2) the younger generation not being set on home ownership is just a lie. The data just simply doesnt back this up.

A larger % of Millenials are buying homes than their boomer parents were at the same age. I know, its a narrative violation but its a dose of reality.
 
I asked for the source that says that.

I know your reply- I am not going to do your homework for you- the response that people who make up stuff always give when they cannot produce proof of what they say.
I don't have time to get in a pissing match with someone who is this obtuse on the topic. It's everywhere around you. Shut off the TV and laptop and go talk to people. You have to be tone deaf to not understand this at this point. Done discussing it with you.
 
You know what also has soared? Construction and service worker charges to consumers. My sprinkler guy told me other sprinkler guys are charging $150 per hour for service calls to replair lawn sprinklers. A few years ago, charges were close to $50 per hour. $150 per hour is about as much our office bills out experienced paralegals, and corporatiins won't entertain rate increases. I'm going to open a lawn sprinkler shop so I can make the really big bucks.
No one wants to talk about the looming skilled trades labor shortage. 2/3 of people in skilled trades are over 40. They need to expand H2B visas and stop pushing this bullshit narrative that everyone needs to go to college.

A good guy on a construction crew costs $250-$300 a day.

We are lucky that I only have to pay our maintenance tech $25 an hour. But I provide the truck and gas.

The cost of labor has increased a ton as well, obviously everywhere but especially in skilled trades.
 
No one wants to talk about the looming skilled trades labor shortage. 2/3 of people in skilled trades are over 40. They need to expand H2B visas and stop pushing this bullshit narrative that everyone needs to go to college.

A good guy on a construction crew costs $250-$300 a day.

We are lucky that I only have to pay our maintenance tech $25 an hour. But I provide the truck and gas.

The cost of labor has increased a ton as well, obviously everywhere but especially in skilled trades.
$250-$300 a day is for how many hours? 8 hours or 10 hours? How many days a week?
 
8 hours. Sometimes you need to buy them lunch. I have also heard $350 from some of our crews. Nuts.

One reason why the "inflation isn't that bad" people drive me nuts.
Where are you finding your construction people. I did a home reno in western PA. Lead guy was 100 an hour and the cheapest helper was 40. So 800 a day for the lead guy. Each day cost me around 2,000 when they had a handful of guys there working. 350 sounds dirt cheap. And those prices were going up. The plumber and electrician were bananas expensive. Prob closer to 150 an hour for the plumber. If you did a home reno you felt the inflation massively. Windows were insane and the quality was crap.
 
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I don't have time to get in a pissing match with someone who is this obtuse on the topic. It's everywhere around you. Shut off the TV and laptop and go talk to people. You have to be tone deaf to not understand this at this point. Done discussing it with you.
So you have nothing that supports overall inflation of 30%

Not surprising
 
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I don‘t see rates going down to 3% again or even 4%. 4.5-5% should be the norm. If people can’t afford homes at 4.5-5% then home prices need to come down. My nephews all brought a couple of years before interest rates went up but home prices were really high $800k. They all make above average wages and I offered the last one a couple hundred thousands for the down payment because his wife hardly worked but he didn’t accept. I guess he made about $200k by himself. Households making $200-400k are fine but the under $200k income are going to struggle buying a home, not that many over $200k households out there.

There are sales today but it‘s people that have extreme high income and other that they are being being forced to sale. It‘s not going back to the good old days of the 1990-2020. Homes down south aren’t the bargain they were 4 years ago before they doubled and insurance is tripling the last three years. My parent home, every house in the neighborhood has been sold within the 10 years and all the old people already moved out. My parent home( lived there almost 60 yrs) is the last to be available for sale. Times are changing and people have to accept the changes.
Rates likely won’t go below 4% unless there is a major catastrophe. Sadly, the next global inflection point will likely be when China invades Taiwan, which very well could happen by 2030. The global economic disruptions will probably force mass rate cuts and sub 4 or even 3 rates could return. Of course, this is nothing anyone should bank on, a reversion to a 5% run rate under normal economic conditions is most likely.
 
Is it down 50% from sales that the previous 2 years were up from some astronomical high number compared to “normal “ years?
That’s the point. Sure real estate is down from 2021-2022 levels, that was an insane market the likes of which we hopefully will never see again for how much overall damage it did to the market. That being said compared to any normal period, say 2016-2019 for example, the market was similar
 
Then you’re the outlier. Every lender, title company, home inspector and most realtors I spoke to this year had a very down year.
It certainly wasn’t a ‘very down year’. It was down compared to 2021 sure, that was also an unsustainable market
 
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8 hours. Sometimes you need to buy them lunch. I have also heard $350 from some of our crews. Nuts.

One reason why the "inflation isn't that bad" people drive me nuts.
I think where you and @tom1944 may be missing each other is that for what he is purchasing at this stage of life, he is not seeing or feeling the effects of inflation. However, anyone in construction, manufacturing, etc that needs skilled trades is painfully feeling the effects of inflation.
 
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I think where you and @tom1944 may be missing each other is that for what he is purchasing at this stage of life, he is not seeing or feeling the effects of inflation. However, anyone in construction, manufacturing, etc that needs skilled trades is painfully feeling the effects of inflation.
Inflation is in all sectors not just construction and housing. The dude is completely oblivious on the topic at this point and we are hijacking a good thread that's about housing.
 
Inflation is due to the little people trying to survive the economy. I just had a coffee and bagel for over $10 in NJ. I was going to get a little pissed off with the huge increases but I realized the owners who was open on Christmas and had to make money. The auto workers union recently demanded such high wages was to get them living wages. The CEO who get $100 million, no one complain about it and said he earned it. We have people on this board complaining about inflation when it really doesn’t affect them, they adjust. The little people making $40-65k are struggling to make end meet. We have almost everybody on the board complaining when the little people want to be paid $16 a hour so they can live. The biggest complainers are the business owners where their profits are reduced. Everybody want a piece of the pie even the little guy.
 
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Inflation is in all sectors not just construction and housing. The dude is completely oblivious on the topic at this point and we are hijacking a good thread that's about housing.
The dude realizes there is inflation. The other dude made an erroneous claim that it was 30% and has failed to prove that but changes the topic instead.

Same thing with the claim that the stock market was down 2 plus years.
 
Inflation is due to the little people trying to survive the economy. I just had a coffee and bagel for over $10 in NJ. I was going to get a little pissed off with the huge increases but I realized the owners who was open on Christmas had to make money. The auto workers union recently demanded such high wages was to get them living wages. The CEO who get $100 million, no one complain about and said he earned it. We have people on this board complaining about inflation when it really doesn’t affect them, they adjust. The little people making $40-65k are struggling to make end meet. We have almost everybody on the board complaining when the little people want to be paid $16 a hour so they can live. The biggest complainers are the business owners where their profits are reduced.
Correct.

Here is why inflation had little effect on me.

Utilities
I had a 10 year zero percent loan which ended in early 2023. My utility bill went down $85

Prior to the winter of 2022 my wife reduced the number of bird baths she kept in the yard from 6 to 2. That reduced heating 4 bird baths. Lower electric as a result

Medical when I retired I went from paying $800 a month to $350.

Food I changed to store brands and Avian Flu ended

My whole life insurance bill was eliminated because the dividends paid off a small loan and pay the entire premium. Saving over $300 a month.

None of that means I do not know there is inflation.

I just don’t make up a phony percentage
 
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I think where you and @tom1944 may be missing each other is that for what he is purchasing at this stage of life, he is not seeing or feeling the effects of inflation. However, anyone in construction, manufacturing, etc that needs skilled trades is painfully feeling the effects of inflation.
We have had construction projects done from 2017 through 2020.

We stopped during Covid and after because of the costs and our projects are cosmetic so not required

I just disagree with his 30% claim on overall inflation

That is all I addressed and what he continues to dodge while claiming I am making some other claim denying there is inflation.
He knows he over exaggerated 2 points and cannot bring himself to admit. Instead he takes potshots.
 
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Correct.

Here is why inflation had little effect on me.

Utilities
I had a 10 year zero percent loan which ended in early 2023. My utility bill went down $85

Prior to the winter of 2022 my wife reduced the number of bird baths she kept in the yard from 6 to 2. That reduced heating 4 bird baths. Lower electric as a result

Medical when I retired I went from paying $800 a month to $350.

Food I changed to store brands and Avian Flu ended

My whole life insurance bill was eliminated because the dividends paid off a small loan and pay the entire premium. Saving over $300 a month.

None of that means I do not know there is inflation.

I just don’t make up a phony percentage
I should be complaining because I got to live on a small social security and pension check. However, I did accumulate enough assets that I let the money make the money.
 
Correct.

Here is why inflation had little effect on me.

Utilities
I had a 10 year zero percent loan which ended in early 2023. My utility bill went down $85

Prior to the winter of 2022 my wife reduced the number of bird baths she kept in the yard from 6 to 2. That reduced heating 4 bird baths. Lower electric as a result

Medical when I retired I went from paying $800 a month to $350.

Food I changed to store brands and Avian Flu ended

My whole life insurance bill was eliminated because the dividends paid off a small loan and pay the entire premium. Saving over $300 a month.

None of that means I do not know there is inflation.

I just don’t make up a phony percentage
Since you brought it up eggs used to be $1.89 for an 18 pack of Shop Rite brand. It was still $3.79 the past few weeks. So more than 30% inflation. I could go on and on.
 
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Since you brought it up eggs used to be $1.89 for an 18 pack of Shop Rite brand. It was still $3.79 the past few weeks. So more than 30% inflation. I could go on and on.
No denying there is inflation. As I mentioned it has been mitigated for me by some unique circumstances. One of which is an increase in income.

I bought a Disney timeshare for much less than what it would have cost me in 2022 but I do not claim there is deflation because of that one example.

Again, I stand by my point that overall inflation is not 30% even if there are certain instances where it was that or higher.

As to eggs I used to buy more expensive brands and now buy the shop rite brand so for me it was not a 30% or greater increase.
 
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No denying there is inflation. As I mentioned it has been mitigated for me by some unique circumstances. One of which is an increase in income.

I bought a Disney timeshare for much less than what it would have cost me in 2022 but I do not claim there is deflation because of that one example.

Again, I stand by my point that overall inflation is not 30% even if there are certain instances where it was that or higher.

As to eggs I used to buy more expensive brands and now buy the shop rite brand so for me it was not a 30% or greater increase.
You are correct, it will end up roughly between 15-18% total between 2021 to 2023. This is assuming 2023 is roughly at 4% on average for the year.
 
I have had multiple people tell me it's the worst year of their career.
if they started in 2021 I believe that. I work directly in the business and am telling you it was still a phenomenal year overall. And I 100% have the sales slips to back it up
 
if they started in 2021 I believe that. I work directly in the business and am telling you it was still a phenomenal year overall. And I 100% have the sales slips to back it up
Phenomenal year overall is totally at odds with every single piece of available data.

Was it a good year for home builders who benefitted from rate buydowns and lack of inventory? Sure. Outside of them, an absolute blood bath for everyone else. Been in the bizz since 2011 and by far worst year. Total units sold nationwide is currently trending at an all-time low when adjusted for population.

Were men here. Who are you, what type of business do you do, what company do you work for and what region are you in?
 
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