Why do you expect the job market to be weaker in 2024? In 2022 many analysts thought a recession was coming in 2023 but it never happened.
There are those predicting a great year ahead in 2024 and just as many on the opposite end of the spectrum. It only takes one tragic event or unexpected downward turn to prevent a strong housing market, or a return to higher inflation numbers.
How does that work for you guys? Guessing its a national brand where you almost have pre-sales before a shovel is in the ground?
Unemployment is projected to tick up in 2024. You can also argue we saw recession pockets in certain industries in 2023 (the real estate industry was an absolute blood bath this year and construction also was hit hard).
Regional, not national (4 states so good size portfolio but no where close to the nationals like dr Horton, lgi, Richmond America, etc in terms of size).
Around 80% of of builds are pre-sales however we do keep a healthy inventory of specs available as ‘quick move ins’.
Really depends on the market
There’s quite literally 100+ years of historical records we can point to that directly contradicts that thought…
You actually believe prices will FALL as payments come DOWN? Not how that works bud, in any economy let alone real estate
Which is so interesting to me because no exaggeration, I had one of my best years of all time this year, beat 2022 even
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When you say tick up, can you add more to that? Unemployment has been around 3.5-3.7 the last few years so it can’t realistically go down from there. Is the tick up to 4 or are you suggesting something higher like 7-8?
Also Stock Market is at an all time high.
Really it just depends on the news networks and sites people choose to consume. You’re always going to have the ‘Doom Loop’ types that constantly complain that the world is falling apart and we’re one event away from going back to a 3rd world country…. Fortunately those same networks have been spewing the same garbage for 20 years now and we’ve yet to lose electricity so far…
Same
I had more income coming in in 2023 than I ever had and I retired in January
2022 was also a good year
Me too and so did many if not most people but that's not the narrative the media wants. They wanted to hear a recession and all the facts showing it's not happening have to be discarded.
4-4.5 unemployment is the projection based on various analysts and I think even the FED.
Stock market has been in the toilet for 2+ years until recently and that's mostly based on the CPI and PCE prints coming in cooler the last few months and the FEDs recent comments last week.
I'm in IT, and the last few years have been good on my end, too. My salary/bonus in 2024 will be about 50% more than it was in 2020.
I retired from a job at Treasury. I now have a service business where I assist small or independent accounting firms get their clients records in order, so they don't have to go through a mess at tax time.
I currently work with 4 firms, but it looks like I will have 2 additional in 2024. I also handle a lot of tax notices their clients receive so they don't have to tie up time working through the government system.
I do not make problems go away but I get them the answer to what the issue is and what needs to be done to fix it.
My wife is an exercise physiologist, and she has a personal training business. She started taking social security and continued her business.
I took my retirement, added social security of around $35,000 and my part time business of $20,000. My wife added social security of around $17,000. She kept her business going but made sure she kept it under the limit for 2023. She can earn as much as she wants in 2024.
My pension was equal to my take home salary while working.
2023 Annual return. 24-25% The stock market had one bad year. If you kept your money in the market from the beginning of 2020 to 2023, your return would be over 47%. I would assume the stock market in 2024 will continue to go up with interest rates decreasing.
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Single family is fine, no cracks. Multi-family defaults is 80% maturity wall, 20% operations
I planned on buying in 2025. Sped up my timeline and closed on my house this past Monday. When I saw that mortgage apps hit an all time low when adjusted for population in october i basically said im buying now otherwise im totally fvcked come 2024-2025 when rates come down and buyers flood the market.
remember 2020-2024 demographically had an expected buyer demand of 6,000,000 home sales a year. Since the 2nd half of 2022 and through 2023 weve averaged 4,000,000 annualized home sales based on monthly sales annualized. This means 2024 will have the 6,000,000 built in demand + an additional 3,000,000 sideline buyers who paused their searches when rates jumped latter half of 2022 and into 2023. 2024 housing market may get crazy to the point where it becomes a big election talking point imo.
Definitely a contrarian viewpoint at odds with all the data available. I disagree.
I’m gonna be in the market to buy another house in 2024/2025.
I understand supply is still at all time low levels…but if rates go down I would think this only helps with supply. So are you thinking prices increase substantially through 2025 because of the pent up demand?
Market now fully pricing in 6 cuts in 2024 with a chance of a 7th. 6 month annualized core pce is already below the feds 2% target. With fed funds at 525-550 right now they are UBER restrictive. First cut coming in march, market pricing 85% chance of a march cut. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/in...trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Imo spreads will continue to come in on mortgages towards the more normal 10-year treasury + 1.70% as the yield curve becomes no longer inverted. Year end 2024 my call on mortgages is a range between 5.375%-5.875%
1) dropping of mortgage rates could potentially take some “lock-in” sellers off the fence but that will be more than made up for with the increase in demand. Data shows historically, lower rates correlate with less supply and larger price appreciation.
2) I think prices increase through 2025. I hate to put it like this because it sounds discouraging but housing affordability is kinda fvcked man. We have the largest demographic patch Ever at peak household formation age, all at a time when we have near all time low supply. Its a bad mix for affordability. I just paid 14% over asking for my house and rates were 8% the day I offered. And I wasnt even the highest offer but got it because I had the best terms and seller was familiar with me as far as not breaking his balls goes during inspections as Ive done deals with him before.
If i were you id try to buy sooner than later
Builders buy down rates too. If you buy direct from builder youre getting rates today in the low to mid 5’s
based on @RUChoppin’s feedback, I could be very wrong. i know banks are taking some pain but surprisingly well. My view on IT or tech is that jobs are still plenty but pay was down. No real inside data. Just feedback from people I know that work in the sector.
Yea, all the media hype of doomsday for the banks happening might be hype. It just dropped the bank stock down but there would be more bankruptcies which we don’t see.
I don’t see the difference. No one is hitting their pro forma UW. Rents are flat and costs are up. If you locked into a low fixed rate, you can punt the problem. Cap rates are up and debt is more expensive. Lenders still love MF, if it’s at the right leverage and healthy DSCR. MF can survive longer because there are bridge lenders willing to take chances. But the pain will come.
banks Are better capitalized thanks to all the regulatory changes after GFC. The one benefit of rising rates is the carry trade on all those reserves.
We actually put about half of our capital reserves (contingency funds) on our properties in 6 month CD’s earning around 5%.
Bro, stop. I am aware of the market. Getting back to above water from where we were 3 years ago, while inflation rose 30% is not something to cheer about.
After 2025 the loss of the SALT deduction goes away. That should have a positive benefit on NJ housing prices.
Where did you see 30% inflation?
Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2024
The annual inflation rate for the United States was 3.5% for the 12 months ending March, compared to the previous rate of 3.2%, according to U.S. Labor Department data published on April 10, 2024. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on May 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing information...
www.usinflationcalculator.com
I don't see 6 rate cuts. I think the market is getting way too ahead of themselves. I'd anticipate 100 bps of cuts and be very thankful if that happened by this time next. year. 150-175bps means deflation (not a bad thing IMO) or faster uptick in unemployment. It's also an election year so surely Biden admin would put pressure on Jerome to cut more aggressively.
Umm...everywhere? Prices across the board since 2020 are up nearly 30%. Even the CPI over a 3 year period is nearly 20%. Hope you are kidding.Where did you see 30% inflation?
Current US Inflation Rates: 2000-2024
The annual inflation rate for the United States was 3.5% for the 12 months ending March, compared to the previous rate of 3.2%, according to U.S. Labor Department data published on April 10, 2024. The next inflation update is scheduled for release on May 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET, providing information...
We are over 47% from three years ago and you mentioned several down years for the stock market. It did feel bad to have a down year.
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Im skeptical only because ive never met someone when buying who ever talks about the state and local tax deductions effecting how much theyre willing to pay and ive sold hundreds of homes. It will certainly boost our local economies a little though as homeowners will have more $$ to spend.
Gotta be honest though, selfishly for tax purposes (all i really care about) i hope trump gets back in office, restarts 100% bonus depreciation through budget reconciliation even if if means instituting SALT again. For my personal situation 100% means more for me than getting SALT deductions back.
I don’t know how this will affect you but the personal income tax rates reverse back in 2025 to pre-2018.
With core pce already below 2% (annualized the past 6 months), if it stays at 2% then 6 cuts might not be enough. 200bps+ over core pce is super restrictive and nowhere close to neutral.
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