With this deli worth 100 million Wawa owners might be richer than Bezos
OT: Yardley/Newtown PA Home Soon to Market
- Thread starter RUsojo
- Start date
Blast from the past, ha. Don Lapre, completely forgot about that dude....wonder what he's up to these days!
Oops, didn't realize he offed himself a decade ago while in prison. No disrespect intended.
When you consider that every town in NJ has COAH obligations and that many of them are often part of single family communities as well...it doesn't really hold that much water.
Depending on the place condos/townhomes will accrue major value and I am seeing it right now all over NJ.
The thing with living in Florida or North Carolina is that you have to live in Florida or North Carolina.
Which likely does not mean rolling out of your apartment in a place like Hoboken or Jersey City, walking to everything in 10 minutes or less, and being surrounded by 20s-30s professionals looking for the same things you are. It's also giving up being across the river from NYC.
If you don't care about any of that, I'm sure it's great. But most people do, and thus why a 2BR in Hoboken is at least 600k.
Which likely does not mean rolling out of your apartment in a place like Hoboken or Jersey City, walking to everything in 10 minutes or less, and being surrounded by 20s-30s professionals looking for the same things you are. It's also giving up being across the river from NYC.
If you don't care about any of that, I'm sure it's great. But most people do, and thus why a 2BR in Hoboken is at least 600k.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Not following the bolded, not sure what youre trying to say.
2) 15% is very conservative. If youre putting down 20% then even just 2% appreciation annually would be 10% (as it’s a leveraged return) and then when you take into consideration cash flow, if you cant obtain at least 5% cash on cash annually youve really f’d up.
In my lifetime there have been several Real Estate reversals/bubbles that have struck the home owner/investor.
Those able to ride it out and continue to pay their monthly mortgage and tax bill have usually been OK, or able to get out clear. Those looking to move, lost their primary income have been destroyed or lost money.
There is ONLY ONE RULE; Location, Location, Location.
I had a friend that loved to pick up income property near US Coast Guard Stations. He would advertise and go to the USCG places to get those renters. Why ? The Coast Guard would sent him the rent checks directly to him, so that he didn't have to deal with the actual Coasties. He ALWAYS got paid.
Those able to ride it out and continue to pay their monthly mortgage and tax bill have usually been OK, or able to get out clear. Those looking to move, lost their primary income have been destroyed or lost money.
There is ONLY ONE RULE; Location, Location, Location.
I had a friend that loved to pick up income property near US Coast Guard Stations. He would advertise and go to the USCG places to get those renters. Why ? The Coast Guard would sent him the rent checks directly to him, so that he didn't have to deal with the actual Coasties. He ALWAYS got paid.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
The risk is they move. As someone who invests in multi-family, the lending requirements are very stringent when you have a concentration of employment/tenants like that. Specifically military bases.
and regarding investment properties, my rule is always invest for cash flow, never bank on appreciation. Markets go up and down but when they go down capital appreciation/depreciation wise its irrelevant as long as cash flow can service debt and you have solid long-term debt on the property.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Show your stats. Condos and townhome values while going up, they havent come close to SFH. Do you have stats that show otherwise? I have stats from our MLS
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
I dont think youve been to florida or the carolinas lol. Have you been to charlotte, raleigh, charleston, greenville? Have you been to miami, boca, delray, jupiter, tampa, orlando to just name a few?
My home on Jupiter Island I knew was worth a number. Around 100 % from my purchase price, that had been a FSBO by a guy in Texas.
My family had moved back to NJ, I missed them, so I sold for just around a 10 % appreciation factor.
It did eventually sell again for that 100 % appreciation price.
But that $ meant nothing compared to the homes that my BIL talked me out of buying in Spring Lake and Sea Girt, when we first moved to the Jersey Shore from Bloomfield back in my NJSP time.
My family had moved back to NJ, I missed them, so I sold for just around a 10 % appreciation factor.
It did eventually sell again for that 100 % appreciation price.
But that $ meant nothing compared to the homes that my BIL talked me out of buying in Spring Lake and Sea Girt, when we first moved to the Jersey Shore from Bloomfield back in my NJSP time.
I didn't say they were on the same level. I said they're going up and not affected by affordable housing laws, which have been in effect for decades.
I can point you to specific developments all over NJ where you could see this. The last major NJ COAH case was a Toll Brothers development in West Windsor, that has a mix of apartments for rent, townhomes and single family. Values are astronomical.
Been to all 3. Would rather live in Jersey City.
Again I'm sure there are people who would rather live in those places. But more people moved from NYC to Hoboken (70k people) than to Miami post COVID, never mind Jersey City.
Supply and demand...there's a reason why it's $1400 in Raleigh vs $3000 here, it's not some free ride or other game but rather more people would rather live in Hoboken. And rent is higher in Manhattan and then even higher in some places in Brooklyn, and San Fran more than that, but I prefer to live here, everyone has choices. It's just not proven that everyone is making the choice you would like to think they are. This board is great evidence, for all the crying about the cost of NJ most stay here.
What you are advocating is an extremely risky strategy. There is no such thing as a 15% long-term risk free return. Full stop. Any time that you put down less on a home purchase, and put the other available cash at risk, you have now made a heavily leveraged investment in an asset that can go down in value. Leverage boosts returns on the way up and accelerates your losses on the way down. We just saw a major family office collapse due to excessive leverage which cascaded to losses for major I-Banks.
Now, if you want to speculate, and you learned that many people who put down little to nothing in the last housing collapse and simply flipped the keys to the lenders while stripping anything of value that wasn't nailed down on their way out, leveraged to the hilt makes sense. Heads I win (home buyer), tails you lose (lenders).
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
You only flip the keys to your lender on your principal residence if you cant make your mortgage payments. Whether your house goes up or down in value is totally irrelevant.
tbh, i was being uber conservative on that 15% number. 20-25% down, 1.3+ DSCR, tax free cash out refi at 1.3 DSCR after 5-10 years depending on market conditions,
Now you have zero $ at risk + cash flow (aka infinite return) and redeploy capital from refi into another asset. It’s really not complicated. I get to someone in stocks, this sounds like a huge return and unrealistic but thats why most in the stock market dont amass the wealth RE investors do.
happy to hop on a call and further discuss and show you how you can get into these
You are a good guy but young and will learn over time. I was much more confident about taking risk when I was your age as well. Many people flipped the keys to lenders during the crisis even if they could easily make the payments. They just had not put much down and were deeply underwater. So, the house value going down was extremely relevant to that decision. Plenty of history of overconfident RE investors going bankrupt.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
If you flipped keys to the bank just because your house lost value over 2 years and you could “easily” afford your monthly payments, then im sorry youre stupid.
buy for cashflow and not on speculation and its about as conservative as one could invest. You go your route, ill go mine and we’ll check back in a decade.
cant wrap my head around someone buying at the height in ‘07, affording monthly payments and just voluntarily handing keys to the bank lol. Logically makes zero sense. I need an explanation of the thought process here.
fyi, default rate on multi-fam in the great recession of 2008? 1%
Pretty simple thought process actually. Buy house outside Las Vegas or Phoenix for $250,000 in mid-2000's, put 3.5% down ($8,750) so basically no "skin in the game" as we lenders call it, crisis hits, whole neighborhood for sale, comp sells for $175K, now underwater by 30%, recovery now looking like it will be years if not decades away, stop paying mortgage, remain in residence due to foreclosure moratorium for next 2 years, tear out the appliances and even take any copper piping for scrap value, exit Stage Left. Bank is stuck with damaged, non livable house that they are anxious to rid themselves of. Please note, I'm not advocating any of this and would never buy a principal residence without putting down a large down payment.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
Haha so you basically just are agreeing with my premise that youd have to be stupid to do that. You wont be able to get a loan to buy a house for 7 years after that process by which time prices are back to the level you originally bought at
KYK, the problem with your model is that most people are not equipped or comfortable jumping into the type of investments you are pushing here. I think the stock market example is better.
Furthermore as you stated earlier, in this market if you're not putting 20% down you're homeless. But I agree we are dealing with a different animal right now.
Furthermore as you stated earlier, in this market if you're not putting 20% down you're homeless. But I agree we are dealing with a different animal right now.
That's with 20/20 hindsight. When home prices were collapsing, the thought that they would rebound to get your neck back above water was wishful. And they took years to rebound unlike last year's one month sell off in equities. Many people bailed, and I agree, many would have been better off waiting out the storm.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
In the 2008 downturn the lowest collections ever got in Dallas was 87% I can tell you as thats my market. And thats before dallas exploded with populations and jobs. Usually breakeven economic occupancy (paying tenants) hovers around 65%. Buy for cashflow, hope for appreciation and you cant go wrong.
lowest our collections got march 2020- march 2021 was 93% and we fell 1.5% below proforma. I know it sounds crazy to people not in tune with RE but 15% is a super conservative estimate
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My OP was essentially a shot in the dark to see if I could find someone that lives in Yardley/Newtown or knows someone who lives there who’s thinking about selling. Both parties could could put nearly 20k better without realtors involved. Get a private sale before listing. I live in Yardley now love the area. Some helpful PMs but no one selling.
Thanks to those who reached out.
I grew up in Yardley. Actually, most of the area is known as Lower Makefield Township, but we all called it Yardley. Pennsbury is the High School that has traditionally sent players to Penn State. It’s a great area. Drive up the River on the Pennsy side, New Hope, great shopping town, and lots of terrific restaurants. But if you order a sub you’ll be out of luck. They’re called hoagies there. And with Trenton across the River, it’s pork roll. Good luck in your search.
I need a neat, clean, safe neighborhood with good public schools. Any cities come close?
Hipsters move into cities for work and to party. When they are ready to start a family they move out.
Which cities are attracting middle and upper class families? Can you name one politician who sends his kids to a non charter public high school in those cities?
That’s a real informed sweeping generalization.
How about those conservative bastions in Alabama and Mississippi? The thriving metropolis’ of the Dakotas?
If you check the mississippi or bama state election maps the problem areas vote blue. Want to guess the area of Kentucky with the most murders, demographics and voting trends? Louisville.
The OP is moving to a more conservative area with lower taxes, lower crime and better schools.
It is ironic that liberals always want to expand the failed welfare model in Mississippi and they complain about the successful capitalism model used on wall street or silicon valley.
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Can you name the beat, clean, safe city with good public high schools?
Council rock > philly. 20,000 reported crimes in philly schools each year.
The entirety of West Virginia or Oklahoma destroys this argument.
Also pretty sure Wall Street is located in a CITY. Pretty sure also that people who work there live mostly in places like Greenwich that all destroy your argument.
But thanks for your effort to lock this thread after 3 pages of mostly respectful and constructive discussion.
Depending on the state, the foreclosure docket was still pending with these kinds of cases pre-COVID- NJ was the slowest of any state- and now there's all kinds of moratoriums that will keep those non-payers in the properties.
I just have to laugh, real estate, stocks, whatever it is, there's no free money or everyone would do it. Now of course, real estate tends to be a good investment, and that's why home ownership is an aspiration for most. But there's no guarantees.
As you stated a lot of people who thought they were being sharp are still probably behind even after this latest bump, because the prices in the Sun Belt while up are not up like they are in say Montclair.
The real winners are the people who came in at 175k, fixed it up, and could charge high rents to people who could no longer afford to buy. If/when the current prices collapse the winners will again be the people who come in at the low point.
There’s a Jersey Mike’s in new hope and a Delorenzos in Newtown now. Jersey slowly taking over bucks county
People who work on wall street live in the burbs because the city is a ghetto.
Greenwich is a good example. Dems promote diversity amd low income housing. You won't find much of either in greenwich.
Liberal policies destroy neighborhoods.
Ever notice affluent dems support the Republican policies in their own neighborhoods, schools and professions? Affluent dems support tax breaks in their own profession. You wont see any diversity or low income housing in Clinton's, Kennedy's or Biden's neighborhoods.
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Many, many people who work in financial services in NYC live in NYC. And, like any jurisdiction, there are plenty of good public schools for families in NY. All depends on where you live in NYC. Also, Greenwich does have a section with low income housing. Those students have access, and attend, Greenwich public schools. Regarding NYC high schools, depending on which ranking you look at, 4-5 of the top 25 ranked public high schools in the country are in NYC.
So is smugglers tk2's even lamer, trollier alias?
Because it's someone's.
Because it's someone's.
Why move to Pennsylvania? So far away NJ is where it’s at. New Providence NJ is a great town I highly recommend it. Our neighbor towns of Berkeley Heights Mountainside and Summit are outstanding and all have top ranked schools.
Name the good non charter public high schools in any city. Parents dont want to campout for three days to get their kid in a lottery for a 1 in 100 shot of getting into a charter.
Cities used to have good public schools. Liberals destroyed the public schools when they ignored school violence. Now they need charters to weed out the criminals. Back in the day the bad kids got kicked out of school. Now the good kids have to leave.
The worst schools in NYC have the same funding. What is holding them down? Bad parenting and culture.
They don't need charters in Greenwich.
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The schools included in the rankings I mentioned are not charter schools.
