After beating The Blue Devils from Connecticut our Sagarin Rating has climbed to 106!
Next four opponents rating:
Stony Brook 267
FDU 280
Fordham 182
SHU 57
Next four opponents rating:
Stony Brook 267
FDU 280
Fordham 182
SHU 57
Sagarin and wrap up of Nonconference slate
- Thread starter RUBigFrank
- Start date
We really should get to 11-1 as long as the team brings the effort every time in the next three. Amazing.
No...it will take more than effort
I think Stonybrook and Fordham will be tough.
I don't expect to beat SHU on the road but it certainly is possible.
No excuse for losing to FDU
I don't expect to beat SHU on the road but it certainly is possible.
No excuse for losing to FDU
I would like to hope for OOC record of 10-3 at worst, at this stage, before the Big Ten schedule starts. Though 12-1 is not totally out of the question (seems unlikely, however) ... that would require an upset, plus 2 difficult wins that are NOT upsets.
I think 18-19 wins is too optimistic until the team shows better 3-point and FT shooting. I think 14-16 wins would seem more likely ... 14-15 if RU is 10-3 OOC, 15-16 if RU is 11-2 OOC. And 16 wins would be terrific, given the depths from whence RU is coming.
By the way, 18-19 wins is NIT bubble territory (not guaranteed, but a chance ... not sure 18 wins gets even a Big Ten team to the NIT).
I think 18-19 wins is too optimistic until the team shows better 3-point and FT shooting. I think 14-16 wins would seem more likely ... 14-15 if RU is 10-3 OOC, 15-16 if RU is 11-2 OOC. And 16 wins would be terrific, given the depths from whence RU is coming.
By the way, 18-19 wins is NIT bubble territory (not guaranteed, but a chance ... not sure 18 wins gets even a Big Ten team to the NIT).
Actually have not seen Stony Brook or Fordham but I have seen FDU against Ohio State. If they hit a few more shots they beat them just like FAU did last night. I would believe FDU is as talented as either of the other 2. Fordham has slid in their last 3 games and Stony Brook has won their last 3. We are more talented and deeper than all 3 and should win but what is good is that one is a true road game with likely a hostile crowd and one is a neutral court game..I am hopeful we play well and in particular shoot well at MSG since we play Wisconsin there on January 28th and will need to shoot well to win on that day.
How many at large teams are usually selected for the NIT? There are 32 conferences. Going to guess 20 of those are only getting 1 bid to NCAAs. So i am guessing....
NIT At large = 32 - 20 + regular season champs who win conference champs in 20 conferences that get 1 NCAA bid.
So 50/50 would be 22 at large selections.
Looks like 18-15 Alabama was last IN for P5 schools last year in NIT. they had a much better OOC, but SEC not as good as I hope B1G is.
I'd say with our schedule 19-20 is needed. looking at winning 8+ games in B1G+SHU+B1GT schedule.
NIT At large = 32 - 20 + regular season champs who win conference champs in 20 conferences that get 1 NCAA bid.
So 50/50 would be 22 at large selections.
Looks like 18-15 Alabama was last IN for P5 schools last year in NIT. they had a much better OOC, but SEC not as good as I hope B1G is.
I'd say with our schedule 19-20 is needed. looking at winning 8+ games in B1G+SHU+B1GT schedule.
I'd sign with a smile right now for 11-2.
from kenpom
SB 54%
FDU 84%
Fordham 57%
SHU 14%
2.09 wins for 10.09-2.91
if we go 10-3 in the OOC schedule and 7-9 in conference we will be 17 and 14 which is a huge step up for this program. & Big 10 wins will probably be tough though
Iowa, Nebraska, Minny, Northwestern, and PSU may be our easiest potential wins. We have these teams on the schedule 6 times so it would take beating a better team this year as well.
We play PSU, Wisconsin, and Maryland twice this year.
Iowa, Nebraska, Minny, Northwestern, and PSU may be our easiest potential wins. We have these teams on the schedule 6 times so it would take beating a better team this year as well.
We play PSU, Wisconsin, and Maryland twice this year.
Uh, we're not going 7-9 in conference.
11-2 plus 5 wins and MAYBE a first round tourney win is MUCH more realistic path to 17, though still unrealistic.
I keep on saying this, we are going to win alot more conference games than people think simply because literally every single team in the bottom third of the league plays us at home. Minnesota, PSU, Northwestern, Illinois, Nebraska...oh wait Iowa is having a bad season? Well guess what we have them at home too. If you believe in the RAC, then we are only one or two upsets away from getting close to.500 in conference.
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Hoping for 6 wins in conference! This is an incredible step forward from prior three years.
going 3-1 over the remaining nonconference schedule is very reasonable.
As for an NIT bid - being a local team for MSG is significant - as economics would factor and favor a bid for us.
17-12 prediction (6-10 conf. 11-2 non conf.).
going 3-1 over the remaining nonconference schedule is very reasonable.
As for an NIT bid - being a local team for MSG is significant - as economics would factor and favor a bid for us.
17-12 prediction (6-10 conf. 11-2 non conf.).
Being local to MSG probably does not influence the NIT now since the NCAA bought them out. Now it is for small conference champs not in the NCAA and the NCAA bubble teams. The NIT is only 32 teams now. It was at 40 prior to the NCAA takeover.
Actually it very may well - as the NCAA owns it making it profitable is a concern - selling tickets would be one way. The only significant source of money for the NCAA is the men's basketball tourney. Other positive revenue streams would be welcome. Remember all football revenue directly goes to the conferences and teams.
False statements there.
There are 18 conference games, not 16. Also, the NCAA runs the NIT now. Being close to the New York City means absolutely nothing now. It's not 2004 anymore when we were just handed three home games in the NIT.
It's a bracketed tournament now. An NIT bid is still crazy talk at this point but it will take a minimum of 18 wins to even be on the fringes of the discussion because of the understandably weak non-conference schedule.
I'm just as excited as everyone about the way we're playing and the 8-1 record, but I think people's expectations now are way too high.
We are a terrible outside shooting team, just terrible, which means that we can lose any one or more of the next four games. I mean, we have barely been able to get a good LOOK at the basket against some of our OOC opponents, and the shooting itself has been abysmal. Our supposed best shooter (Thiam) scored 0 points in two straight games, and last night he had 0 again until two meaningless three-pointers in garbage time.
I expect a loss on the road to SHU, and the other three will not be easy because of our poor shooting. We have been living on the edge thus far, squeaking out wins against a couple of patsies because of our poor shooting, and we're actually lucky to be 8-1. That's a harsh assessment but it's the reality. We can take NOTHING from the game against CCSU, because they were just a bad team who was coughing the ball up all night, and had nobody to counter our size in the paint.
We will struggle to win 4 B1G games unless we suddenly become a better outside shooting team.
We are a terrible outside shooting team, just terrible, which means that we can lose any one or more of the next four games. I mean, we have barely been able to get a good LOOK at the basket against some of our OOC opponents, and the shooting itself has been abysmal. Our supposed best shooter (Thiam) scored 0 points in two straight games, and last night he had 0 again until two meaningless three-pointers in garbage time.
I expect a loss on the road to SHU, and the other three will not be easy because of our poor shooting. We have been living on the edge thus far, squeaking out wins against a couple of patsies because of our poor shooting, and we're actually lucky to be 8-1. That's a harsh assessment but it's the reality. We can take NOTHING from the game against CCSU, because they were just a bad team who was coughing the ball up all night, and had nobody to counter our size in the paint.
We will struggle to win 4 B1G games unless we suddenly become a better outside shooting team.
I try not to DO negative. I will leave that up to those who feel a need to blather what we are terrible at and how few games we could win. I prefer to see the UP side.
We play 31 games this year(plus a B10 playoff game or TWO ) ;-)
16wins= a winning season...thats a milestone in itself
If we go 11-2 OOC(beat Stony Brook et al... but lose to SHU)
We would need 5 wins in B10 play to have a wining season
I am loving the sound of that!!!!!
We play 31 games this year(plus a B10 playoff game or TWO ) ;-)
16wins= a winning season...thats a milestone in itself
If we go 11-2 OOC(beat Stony Brook et al... but lose to SHU)
We would need 5 wins in B10 play to have a wining season
I am loving the sound of that!!!!!
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As Bruce would have said, "Bingo."
Delighted beyond belief to be 8-1 after the Eddie Error, but we've beaten several absolutely horrific teams and our weaknesses are glaring.
I don't know whether we win 2,3,4,5,6,7, or 8 B1G regular season games. I think we have closed the gap considerably (and b1G being weak has helped too).
In the past we needed our A game combined with a D or F game from 2/3 of the conference to win. Now I think our A goes 18-0 of the D game of every team in the conference.
I'd like to think there are 5-6 games we will play that the outcome might be the difference between a W or L if we go 20-25 from the line vs 16-25 AND/OR 3-13 from 3 vs. 6-13 from 3. i think/hope whether we go 4-14 or 5-13 or 6-12 is as random as us or our opponent missing or making 2 or 3 shots.
In the past we needed our A game combined with a D or F game from 2/3 of the conference to win. Now I think our A goes 18-0 of the D game of every team in the conference.
I'd like to think there are 5-6 games we will play that the outcome might be the difference between a W or L if we go 20-25 from the line vs 16-25 AND/OR 3-13 from 3 vs. 6-13 from 3. i think/hope whether we go 4-14 or 5-13 or 6-12 is as random as us or our opponent missing or making 2 or 3 shots.
In 6 of our 9 OOC games we have led by 19 or more points in the 2nd half. In the 7th (Morgan State) we led by 15 in the 2nd half. Not sure that is "living on the edge".
Reality is outside of @UM and Hartford we have pretty much blown everyone else out (relatively speaking in CBB terms). I understand our weaknesses and I'm not claiming we are winning the B1G. I'm not sure if we are an NIT-level team. But we're not awful. Of that I am pretty certain.
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Good thing you are not on the committee - you missed the point that proximity for us is beneficial - as we could sell tickets with a lot of ifs. If the committee decides that local team could make the tournament profitable through added ticket sales - we would merit stronger consideration with all the ifs added in.
If Rutgers wins 17 or more games this year and gets to the NIT, Pikiell would have to be in the conversation for not only BIG COY, but national COY. A potential 10-win increase? That's insane for anywhere, let alone Rutgers. Really enjoying seeing this team WIN again, regardless of who it's against. Definitely want to see them win the next 3, though.
I can't explain it any better. People always want to point out that we are not a good shooting team and I get it but never a mention that we are good at basically everything else. If Sanders Williams and Johnson were 40% three point shooters anything worse than a sweet sixteen would be a disappointment. They aren't so we struggle with getting into the NIT. But trying to find ways to get into the NIT is a hell of alot better than what we have seen in over a decade and what people still think we are at.
We don't need to count wins as much as are we improving or performing against better competition....Are we counting on getting offensive rebounds against the B1G competition?? Are we planning to hold every B1G opponent below 40% FG shooting and get defensive rebounds?? Those are things that playing defense and rebounding allows you a chance to do some nights, but not every night.
The RAC needs to be at 80% capacity and with a pretty full student section to generate the type of home court advantage necessary to spring upsets....As much as we anticipate the positive press generating student attendance and general ticket sales, it then has to generate crowd noise and create a climate change that coming to the RAC becomes a trap game for opponents.
If anything has the potential to change the culture of RU basketball, there is a chance to get 1000 RU fans for the Seton Hall game, which could be a bigger signal that fans will then get to the RAC for the B1G schedule.....it's also a game RU isn't expected to win at all, but it can show the rest of the region that RU is on the way back......(impacts regional recruiting as well with a good showing of Red in the Rock).
We only have 8 RAC conference games and 1 at MSG vs Wisconsin, so how many of the RAC games can RU get before the Final 3 games of the season....
Only 5 of the first 15 B1G games are at the RAC.....that's a little bit tilted, but if the team stays intact and healthy into mid February, the final 4 total games are at Northwestern then 3 straight home games are Maryland, Michigan and Illinois....then whatever matchup in the B1G tournament (likely an 11-14 or 12-13 matchup against another team in the Bottom 4 of the conference, if we dig too deep a hole i the standings before the final 4 games.
You would have to have significant development from Thiam, Sa helping Freeman, healthy contributions from all 3 guards and something positive out of the Small Forward position with Laurent/Eugene Omoyuri to have any chance to get 2 of the final 3 or 3 of the Final 4 games.
There is so much more season to develop before we count wins at this stage....My signal of what would suggest bigger things are being put together is the next step of finding points and a constant defensive presence out of Laurent and Omoyuri at the Small Forward spot. If you find 10PPG from those two players, then you can start thinking much bigger. I am confident we can get 10RPG from Laurent and Omoyuri, but can we get 10PPG from those two is a question.
The RAC needs to be at 80% capacity and with a pretty full student section to generate the type of home court advantage necessary to spring upsets....As much as we anticipate the positive press generating student attendance and general ticket sales, it then has to generate crowd noise and create a climate change that coming to the RAC becomes a trap game for opponents.
If anything has the potential to change the culture of RU basketball, there is a chance to get 1000 RU fans for the Seton Hall game, which could be a bigger signal that fans will then get to the RAC for the B1G schedule.....it's also a game RU isn't expected to win at all, but it can show the rest of the region that RU is on the way back......(impacts regional recruiting as well with a good showing of Red in the Rock).
We only have 8 RAC conference games and 1 at MSG vs Wisconsin, so how many of the RAC games can RU get before the Final 3 games of the season....
Only 5 of the first 15 B1G games are at the RAC.....that's a little bit tilted, but if the team stays intact and healthy into mid February, the final 4 total games are at Northwestern then 3 straight home games are Maryland, Michigan and Illinois....then whatever matchup in the B1G tournament (likely an 11-14 or 12-13 matchup against another team in the Bottom 4 of the conference, if we dig too deep a hole i the standings before the final 4 games.
You would have to have significant development from Thiam, Sa helping Freeman, healthy contributions from all 3 guards and something positive out of the Small Forward position with Laurent/Eugene Omoyuri to have any chance to get 2 of the final 3 or 3 of the Final 4 games.
There is so much more season to develop before we count wins at this stage....My signal of what would suggest bigger things are being put together is the next step of finding points and a constant defensive presence out of Laurent and Omoyuri at the Small Forward spot. If you find 10PPG from those two players, then you can start thinking much bigger. I am confident we can get 10RPG from Laurent and Omoyuri, but can we get 10PPG from those two is a question.
Continued rebound dominance will be the key for our conference schedule - if we can do that it overcomes a "lower" shooting percentage by allowing second chances - and reducing second chances on the defensive side. This team is built for rebounding - hopefully - points will follow.
Yes we have not shot well to date but let's get some facts straight. Our shots have been wide open not barely able to get a good look as you claim. All 16 three pointers against Morgan State were totally uncontested but just missed making only 2. You mention Issa and conveniently leave out Nigel, Mike, and Corey that will all shoot 3's better than they have to date. We also have these multiple options as compared to 1 in past years. Yes , I agree we have to shoot better and make an average of 6 threes to win the conference games but I expect our guys to shoot better especially our guards .
Your statement about squeaking by these patsies is plainly false. With the exception of Hartford , all other wins had 19 point leads against these " patsies".
Your statement that we can can lose any one of the next 4 games , although true because anything is possible, is highly unlikely based upon what has happened on the court this year.
Okay your opinion is that we will struggle to win 4 conference games but most of the statements in your post are far from "reality".
True but that does not mean we beat them at home...pretty tough to pencil in wins when Rutgers has not beaten anyone and all of the so called bottomteams have more impressive wins right now
True, but they also have losses much worse than us.
I will freely admit I am counting on something we haven't seen yet-our home court advantage. But you know more than I do....if the RAC starts rocking again, we have won games there against better teams than what I am asking for.
You're picking part individual parts of my post without addressing the overall point: We are a terrible shooting team that even struggled against SOME of the patsies. 78-65 over Niagara, 66-53 over North Texas, 77-75 over Hartford, and 72-58 over Morgan State) are worrisome results IF PEOPLE ARE EXPECTING/HOPING FOR MORE THAN 4-5 B1G WINS. (They are NOT worrisome if we're just enjoying "winning" the games we're playing).
I haven't even mentioned the Miami game, where we really couldn't run our offense and only hit 2 or 3 outside shots the entire game. What scares me about that game is that Miami didn't even play all that well, but their length and athleticism completely exposed our weaknesses. Gettys and Freeman (our offensive strengths up to this point in the season) were neutralized in that game, and I'm concerned that the Miami game will portend what's to come in the B1G games.
The above results CLEARLY show that we're going to struggle in all of our B1G games. Am I absolutely thrilled that we're 8-1? Yes. Am I absolutely thrilled with the WAY Pike has the team playing, i.e., with rebounding and defense? Yes. But the 8 wins should not fool anybody into thinking we have much chance to win more than 4 conference games.
I hope I'm proven wrong.
Goru7:
I'm not looking at the scores necessarily. I'm evaluating the PLAY of the team, and the outside shooting in those games was downright horrific. Moreover, the zone offense has looked very disjointed (at times) against inferior athletes.
Those four games were NOT "easy" wins despite the fact that we had double digit margins. We won because we eventually wore out undermanned teams. That will not happen in the B1G games.
Look, I didn't intend to make this a gripe session about our team. I absolutely LOVE what's happening here. All I'm saying is that the results to date (the 8 wins) are not a true indication of how the team has actually been playing. The offense really does not look good at all in the half court sets, and it concerns me. And it is strongly suggestive that we will struggle mightily against the B1G teams.
RU has played only one game against competition similar to what it will meet in the Big 10...granted Miami is probably a 4th to 7th place team in this league but RU was soundly defeated in the game despite cutting into the gap. Good lord Miami went on a 17-0 run and led by 21, the game was never in doubt even though our guys fought to the end, its like being up 35-0 in football and the other team scoring 17 in the final 10 minutes to cut the gap in half.
so thats all we have to go on with RU..not much. Other schools have played tougher schools and even Penn State has better wins with GW, GTech and Duquense being better than De Paul.
again my big concern is the shooting and our lack of 3 point shooting. If we had an outside shooter, I would feel better but its going to be tough to win by playing hard and rebounding and doing all those little things alone when the shooting is so poor and thats against weak teams. The game against Hartford should give everyone pause
he already explained, proximity means zero..thats not how they do it anymore. I dont know what to to tell you if you dont believe but its not 1992 anymore with a NY group running the NIT and picking .500 RU teams from the A10 because they are local. They seed the teams and dont play favorites and many of the spots go to conference champs from low to mid majors who dont win their conference tourneys and go to the NCAAs. RU would likely have to get to 19 wins somehow..either 17-14 and then go 2-1 in the B10 tourney to get to 19-15 or go 18-13 with one conference tourney win to go 19-14.
Here is some reality....Northwestern finished 20-12 last year....8-10 in the Big 10....12-1 non conference and DID NOT make the NIT...its OOC was extremely poor probably on par with RU's. Thats how tough it is to make the NIT. So with a weak OOC, RU better beat some of the top 6 teams in the league
Look I get the format - and understand. Even under ideal circumstances its a reach. The NIT once the premier tournament until the NCAA expanded from 16 and then 32 to present format. The NCAA bought he tourney rights and yes changed the imvitation format. The tournament has long been a money loser. My supposition has been from a business perspective - how long do you run this tourney as a money loser.
