BACATOLOGY: 3/6 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS***RUTGERS PROJECTED 11 SEED***
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Happy accident? If you are rooting against bid stealers and bubble teams on this weekend, they are usually going to be underdogs
UAB is pretty good. Getting all these teams/games confused. I think UAB had an injury, but now are healthy
That’s why metrics can be garbage. Teams get rewarded by beating bad teams if they beat them 100% of the time. They also get rewarded by pummeling bad teams into submission, which is just a matter of not playing your bench.
You should try to get the best 68 teams, and Cinderellas should be only for the conference champion auto-bids unless you have played a semi-competitive schedule.
If we are the last bye 1 thief sends us to Dayton
The chance of at least 1 thief is no lower than 65% and could be as high as 85% right now
Talking about Dayton.
The only thing that keep us out of the 68 if the committee changes the way they do things OR they look at Rutgers post Mag and knows they aren’t a top 32-33 type team.
They had a committee member on CBSsports network (Wally Szerbiak scares me!) and he actually referenced injuries making teams worse and they want to pick the best teams.
Made me pause
Good, if they want to pick the best teams, then FAU has no shot at an at large if they lose today. Their 30 wins against mostly garbage teams would go out the window.
Also, we have proven we can be very good without Mag.
If you're referring to Florida Atlantic, you're selling them short. They definitely deserve to be in the field.
You've been reading my posts, lol. Been saying this since it happened, i.e., the "loss" would be our tiebreaker if we were right on the edge of being in (keeping us out of Dayton) or right on the edge of being out of the tourney completely (keeping us in Dayton).
I obviously have no direct knowledge of this, but I know how humans evaluate things and everyone knows that "loss" was a once in 5-10 year event, which will likely change the review rules (and not a run-of-the-mill poor judgment call which happens all the time in games) and will be accounted for by the Committee, even if ever so slightly.
FAU would be favored on a neutral court against many teams that will get an at-large bid if they played them tonight (most likely including Rutgers, though it would be close).
Rutgers on front page of ESPN right now. Don't think they had to work hard to find that picture of Paul Mulcahy.
Aren’t we 3-6 without him with losses to Nebraska and Michigan at home and Minnesota away?
I just saw that and sent it to a few friends. It’s such a bizarre photo to post above the title saying we should be happy
I’d much rather be 20-13 and not be hoping the selection committee throws us a bone.
Bracketology: Make way for Marquette, Iowa State on the top line
Another week, another shake-up at the top. Iowa State and Marquette join Auburn and Tennessee as No. 1 seeds.
www.espn.com
Yes. We had an adjustment period which is to be expected. We also won games at Wisky (without Caleb also), and Penn State and most recently beat bubble-team Michigan on a neutral court and played within 5 points of a projected 1 seed.
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Perhaps. That doesn’t mean it’s right. Look at their schedule. It’s ridiculous. They won by 3 at Florida in the 3rd game of the season…and that’s it. Absolutely nothing else. They only played one other major conference team in Mississippi and lost by 13.
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I really doubt it. How could they do that without also dismissing the Temple game where we were missing 2 32+ mpg ball handlers?
Mag is a 24 mpg guy and his paper stats aren’t eye popping. We have 3 quality wins away from home - 2road wins and a neutral. And closed out the game at MSG (more than half of it) without Mag. Just lost to a potential 1 seed by 5 while the rest of the bubble bowed out in blow out fashion.
The committee wasn’t expecting us to win @ Illinois or @ Indiana regardless. So we sucked vs Seton Hall at full strength on a given day. Not seeing the committee viewing Nebraska as different and because we lost Mag - especially since it was during a stretch when they were hot. The Minny collapse was devastating and made national news. Only RU could lose that way (they made 6 straight 3s and our +90% FT shooter bombed). Nobody is attributing the way that one ended to Mag’s absence though.
Split with UAB. Lost to them by 9 and only beat them by 2. I believe UAB might also have a player who returned from injury as well. Underdogs is further proof they don’t belong as an at large should they lose.
We just beat Mich and almost Perdie (playing 5 vs. 8 with the refs) with our new & improved lineup.
We aren't playing Miami in Round 1 after having played them in November. Mizzou or A&M IMO are who we face.
Lol.. I thought that was the case but stupid me for Believing it was even possible knowing ESPN . Thanks guys. (yes and I know this was just a guess from them).
Yes but we were 3-6 and bart and kenpom would have us right around 100 over those 9 games
Michigan is a NIT team and we lost to Purdue by 5.
Committee isn't going to drill down and look at an improved lineup
I think our showing in the B1G tournament trumps that. IMO, it was huge that we followed up the Michigan win with a very respectable showing vs. Purdue. We can’t be expected to beat a 1 seed but we were right there.
To me, that substantially negates the Mag factor and puts the focus back on “body of work”.
He went out in the first half of the Michigan State game. Can’t ignore that one. He was a role player on the roster from a paper perspective. We didn’t lose a “star”. Teams go through ups and downs all season. We ended with 2 solid showings.
The way we lost Minny got national attention. Mag wasn’t helping us win that game. Everyone and their mother knows that. We were up 12+ most of the game. We turned the ball over and they couldn’t miss from 3 AND Cam missed a critical FT along with I think Caleb. All those things had to happen for us to lose and Mag had nothing to do with any of them. He’s a terrible ball handler. Would not have helped us avoid those stupid turnovers.
UAB is better. Jordan "Jelly" Walker was hurt and now is healthy. If Walker wasn't hurt UAB might have FAU's resume.
