...is that we finally (almost) saw what the minute distribution should look like, as the best rotations (minus full Dylan) did not play until spotting a 14 point lead. Haven't posted in here but have been riding Acuff all season as he was clearly a great scoring option and was just never fully given a chance to get comfortable (whether it was the injury, coaching, or a combo). Grant was a pleasant surprise but showed he can 1) drive 2) rebound 3) hustle and 4) defend a big. Even if he's off scoring he can give you good minutes unlike Martini who is almost a guaranteed minus because the ceiling is so small. So, in the hospice moments of the season let me be a bit delusional and see if we can chart out some magic. Here are the player minutes/scoring production and schedule w's and L's if we want a shot. It's fun playing hypotheticals because that's the closest we're going to get to a winning season. Just some general keys. Pikiell's target used to be holding teams to 60. It should now be 70ppg and we should shoot for 75 ppg which we've done fairly well until the last two games.
Starters
Ace: 38 mpg. 18 ppg
We already know what he is and what he needs to be. For this team to be successful he has to score and do so likely over 40% from the field. If he can get out of his free throw slump this will take weight off the rest of his game. Getting about 10 boards for him is also critical.
Dylan: 38 mpg. 20 ppg
Same as Ace, we already know what he needs to do. As long as he plays like he has prior to illness, the team can be in any game.
Tyson: 20mpg. 8 ppg
Tonight showed Tyson can be the third scorer. We need two made threes out of him so need to give him 5-6 3 pt looks per game. He can also drive and hit the pull up so he should be taking 10 shots a game IMO. He's been fairly efficient all season so I trust he will do so with a higher volume consistently. He just has to be confident and Pikiell has to make sure he still has looks once Dylan comes back on the ball.
J Will: 25 mpg. 8 ppg
J Will can definitely be a 12-15 point scorer on some nights but 8 is more realistic. If it's going to be 8 it has to be an efficient 8. He needs to try to force less once Dylan comes back and look for quality shots and not contested layups. I think his strength is 10-12 footers and then the occasional open three or transition layup. He should mainly be looking to swing to Ace/Dylan/Tyson etc on the drive and only take a shot if he is playing well or Rutgers has a comfortable lead.
Sommerville: 20mpg. 8ppg
He should stay mostly the same to what he's been doing except no jumpers unless WIDE open. Hasn't proved consistent enough. Pikiell needs to get him more drop ins IMO instead of tough over the shoulder shots. How he does that? I would be coaching Rutgers if I could answer that question however I just don't think the set plays position him right under the basket and he fades a few feet outside too easily which is why he has tougher looks.
Bench:
J Mike/Derkack: 20mpg. 6ppg
This is whoever is having a better game. My initial nod goes to J Mike since he is a better on ball defender and a bit more of a threat offensively, but Derkack is useful in some situations. J Mike shouldn't be shooting 10 times a game like tonight, probably closer to 6 unless wide open. Derkack can't really shoot and is only a threat to drive so he should be used 1) if J Mike is off or his matchup is too tall and 2) if Rutgers 3 pt shooting is off. That's when his reckless driving is useful because it will force the defense to collapse and could open up better looks. We don't need his driving if the offense is flowing.
Grant: 15mpg. 6ppg
Still a wildcard but it's clear he's not afraid to shoot. One made three and a bucket around the rim would be great. It's important Pikiell instills confidence but also limits reckless shots to get efficiency out of him. Could easily be a 8-10 ppg guy but just don't fully know yet which is why I'm sticking low.
Ogbole: 8mpg. 2ppg
Don't really need Ogbole to score. He just needs to make open looks he gets (which he didn't do tonight) and free throws.
Spot minutes:
Martini, Hayes
These two really shouldn't be playing unless needed for a certain reason. Martini if you need a net zero for a span of two minutes. Hayes if we need free throws or desperation 3s.
Now, with all that said it's a frame work and will definitely fluctuate. Ace and Dylan are clear constants on most nights. J Mike and J Will are constants on defense. Let's make Tyson a constant on offense and Dylan Grant a constant on both ends. Pikiell needs to stick to this lineup and ride it the rest of the season. At this point everyone has had their chances. If you hold hold teams to 70ppg or under and make your free throws and you'll be in most games. Now let's look at the schedule and hope the lessons learned from today make us the best version of ourselves.
Q1 - Purdue (Home) W 9-7: Harper neutralizes Braden Smith. Ace shoots back to normal and the duo prove why they are top picks again.
Q1 - UCLA (Home) W 10-7: RAC is tough place for UCLA to play and long trip wears on them.
Q1 - Nebraska (Away) W 11-7: Brice Williams is cold, NEB not as good as initially thought to be.
Q1 - Penn State (Away) W 12-7: Complete the sweep by repeating the same recipe.
Q1 - Michigan State (MSG) L 12-8: Hot streak ends, MSU has our number.
Q1 - Northwestern (Away) W 13-8: Ace/Dylan better than Brooks and Martinelli
Q1 - Michigan (Home) W 14-8: Rutgers shoots well
Q1 - Illinois (Home) L 14-9: Too good of an all around team, will be blowout loss.
Q1 - Maryland (Away) W 15-9: Rutgers shuts down Queen and Gillespie
Q2 - Iowa (Home) W 16-9: Rutgers wins a track meet
Q1 - Oregon (Home) L 16-10: Oregon blows us out
Q2 - Washington (Home) W 17-10: West coast travel too much for UW.
Q3 - USC (Home) W 18-10: Rutgers plays better team game
Q1 - Michigan (Away) W 19-10: Squeaks one out thanks to a gritty performance despite poor shooting on the road.
Q1 - Purdue (Away) L 19-11: Can't beat purdue twice, Mackey is tough
Q4- Minnesota (Home) W 20-11: Q4 win, Rutgers barely escapes but keeps hope alive for post season
Two BTT Tourney Q1 wins + Princeton moves to Q2= 22-11 (10-9 vs Q1, 2-2 vs Q2, 2-1 vs Q3, 6-0 vs Q4). They can STILL afford losses at this point IF they go on a four game win streak at some point in the schedule. We just need to pray this team has a hot stretch, and now would be the time with two home games to start. I refuse to give up on this team because there are definitely flashes. We haven't seen the best version of this team and I believe we will once Dylan gets healthy.
Starters
Ace: 38 mpg. 18 ppg
We already know what he is and what he needs to be. For this team to be successful he has to score and do so likely over 40% from the field. If he can get out of his free throw slump this will take weight off the rest of his game. Getting about 10 boards for him is also critical.
Dylan: 38 mpg. 20 ppg
Same as Ace, we already know what he needs to do. As long as he plays like he has prior to illness, the team can be in any game.
Tyson: 20mpg. 8 ppg
Tonight showed Tyson can be the third scorer. We need two made threes out of him so need to give him 5-6 3 pt looks per game. He can also drive and hit the pull up so he should be taking 10 shots a game IMO. He's been fairly efficient all season so I trust he will do so with a higher volume consistently. He just has to be confident and Pikiell has to make sure he still has looks once Dylan comes back on the ball.
J Will: 25 mpg. 8 ppg
J Will can definitely be a 12-15 point scorer on some nights but 8 is more realistic. If it's going to be 8 it has to be an efficient 8. He needs to try to force less once Dylan comes back and look for quality shots and not contested layups. I think his strength is 10-12 footers and then the occasional open three or transition layup. He should mainly be looking to swing to Ace/Dylan/Tyson etc on the drive and only take a shot if he is playing well or Rutgers has a comfortable lead.
Sommerville: 20mpg. 8ppg
He should stay mostly the same to what he's been doing except no jumpers unless WIDE open. Hasn't proved consistent enough. Pikiell needs to get him more drop ins IMO instead of tough over the shoulder shots. How he does that? I would be coaching Rutgers if I could answer that question however I just don't think the set plays position him right under the basket and he fades a few feet outside too easily which is why he has tougher looks.
Bench:
J Mike/Derkack: 20mpg. 6ppg
This is whoever is having a better game. My initial nod goes to J Mike since he is a better on ball defender and a bit more of a threat offensively, but Derkack is useful in some situations. J Mike shouldn't be shooting 10 times a game like tonight, probably closer to 6 unless wide open. Derkack can't really shoot and is only a threat to drive so he should be used 1) if J Mike is off or his matchup is too tall and 2) if Rutgers 3 pt shooting is off. That's when his reckless driving is useful because it will force the defense to collapse and could open up better looks. We don't need his driving if the offense is flowing.
Grant: 15mpg. 6ppg
Still a wildcard but it's clear he's not afraid to shoot. One made three and a bucket around the rim would be great. It's important Pikiell instills confidence but also limits reckless shots to get efficiency out of him. Could easily be a 8-10 ppg guy but just don't fully know yet which is why I'm sticking low.
Ogbole: 8mpg. 2ppg
Don't really need Ogbole to score. He just needs to make open looks he gets (which he didn't do tonight) and free throws.
Spot minutes:
Martini, Hayes
These two really shouldn't be playing unless needed for a certain reason. Martini if you need a net zero for a span of two minutes. Hayes if we need free throws or desperation 3s.
Now, with all that said it's a frame work and will definitely fluctuate. Ace and Dylan are clear constants on most nights. J Mike and J Will are constants on defense. Let's make Tyson a constant on offense and Dylan Grant a constant on both ends. Pikiell needs to stick to this lineup and ride it the rest of the season. At this point everyone has had their chances. If you hold hold teams to 70ppg or under and make your free throws and you'll be in most games. Now let's look at the schedule and hope the lessons learned from today make us the best version of ourselves.
Q1 - Purdue (Home) W 9-7: Harper neutralizes Braden Smith. Ace shoots back to normal and the duo prove why they are top picks again.
Q1 - UCLA (Home) W 10-7: RAC is tough place for UCLA to play and long trip wears on them.
Q1 - Nebraska (Away) W 11-7: Brice Williams is cold, NEB not as good as initially thought to be.
Q1 - Penn State (Away) W 12-7: Complete the sweep by repeating the same recipe.
Q1 - Michigan State (MSG) L 12-8: Hot streak ends, MSU has our number.
Q1 - Northwestern (Away) W 13-8: Ace/Dylan better than Brooks and Martinelli
Q1 - Michigan (Home) W 14-8: Rutgers shoots well
Q1 - Illinois (Home) L 14-9: Too good of an all around team, will be blowout loss.
Q1 - Maryland (Away) W 15-9: Rutgers shuts down Queen and Gillespie
Q2 - Iowa (Home) W 16-9: Rutgers wins a track meet
Q1 - Oregon (Home) L 16-10: Oregon blows us out
Q2 - Washington (Home) W 17-10: West coast travel too much for UW.
Q3 - USC (Home) W 18-10: Rutgers plays better team game
Q1 - Michigan (Away) W 19-10: Squeaks one out thanks to a gritty performance despite poor shooting on the road.
Q1 - Purdue (Away) L 19-11: Can't beat purdue twice, Mackey is tough
Q4- Minnesota (Home) W 20-11: Q4 win, Rutgers barely escapes but keeps hope alive for post season
Two BTT Tourney Q1 wins + Princeton moves to Q2= 22-11 (10-9 vs Q1, 2-2 vs Q2, 2-1 vs Q3, 6-0 vs Q4). They can STILL afford losses at this point IF they go on a four game win streak at some point in the schedule. We just need to pray this team has a hot stretch, and now would be the time with two home games to start. I refuse to give up on this team because there are definitely flashes. We haven't seen the best version of this team and I believe we will once Dylan gets healthy.
