Took 24 hours off from RU football after yesterday's debacle (plus I had an all day disc golf tourney today), so just getting around to this now. Anyway, at this point the forecast looks somewhat like we had 6-7 days out last week, i.e., high pressure entrenched from mid-week onward and an upper level cutoff low trying to move its way towards us from our west with a trough late in the week. This past week, the high pressure held strong and we had gorgeous weather for this weekend, while the models currently show a range of solutions, from something similar to this weekend to the high eroding and occasional drizzle/showers being possible on gameday. Temps are forecast to be seasonable (avg high/low on 10/9 is 68/45) at this point, so if the rain holds off it could be a nice day. Still too far out to know which way this one will go.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The
cutoff low will continue to spin to our southwest through the
greater part of the week, slowly absorbing back into the parent
westerly
flow by Friday as a kicker
shortwave ejects from the
Rockies over the northern Plains. Instead, the remnant energy from
the
trough erodes as a piece of
vorticity lifts with the Plains
trough and the remaining
vorticity drifts off the Southeast Coast.
Rather impressive mid-level ridging for this time of year builds
ahead of the developing amplified
trough over the West. This shoots
500
mb heights over 576 dm well towards the Hudson Bay. While we
stay damp and on the humid side, this keeps us slightly warmer than
average for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 70s
Wednesday through Sunday with lows in upper 50s to low 60s.
As for precip chances, this is a more difficult call as the entire
period remains rather
unsettled. With onshore
flow in the
wake of
Tuesday`s
front, added the mention for drizzle Wednesday with the
stronger onshore
flow from east to west. Thursday looks to be
perhaps the best day with the lowest chances for drizzle and rain
showers. Am more inclined to call them periods of light rain but
left forecast wording as showers for now as the latest guidance has
trended downward on
PoPs it appears. Depending on how the
cutoff low
erodes by Friday will determine the rain chances; if it absorbs
into the new
trough further to our west, we`ll remain on the
drier side. I am more in favor of this solution given the trend
with the past cut-off low of last week continually improving.
Global guidance seems to be absorbing this low a little more
quickly each run the past few days with the surface high inching
further southeast into our region.