BACATOLGY 3/4 : NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Well that sounds like a schedule fail. Why does any team need to play 1 let alone 2?
Not sure but that doesnt remove the 32 point home loss to Air Force
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I love watching Wake falter down the stretch and hope they go the NIT route.
Hunter Salis transferred there from Gonzaga. He is an Omaha kid. I’m good friends with his step dad and he told me last year when Hunter was trying to figure out where to go he came down to Wake and NU. He chose Wake because they would be in the ncaa tournament and NU wouldn’t. Haha
And yes, I have been reminding his step dad it could happen that way…
I am not so sure the criteria for the committee changing to full body of work and eliminating last 10-15 games was a good or fair assessment of the best 68 teams. From a logical standpoint , teams might take a while to gel but the good teams get better as the season goes along . USF has won 15 straight games in the AAC , that includes wins over FAU , Memphis , Charlotte , 2 X , and SMU the top 4 next teams. That is impressive as hell regardless of what you think of the league. I have seen FAU enough over the last 2 years to know that is one talented team they beat.
Similarly , UNLV has won 11 of 12 in the ultra competitive Mountain West , arguably a top 6 league this year. They knocked off San Diego State the other night , who will likely get a 4 seed.
Not rewarding these teams that could actually win a game or 2 over the 8th team from a league or 7th team in a league or to reward Wisconsin and Virginia , one team having lost 8 of 10 and the other one who has scored under 50 five times this year is not logical if you want the best teams. USF and UNLV would likely beat Wisconsin and Virginia if played next week. We are not talking about a 4 or 5 game hot streak but 15 in a row and 11 out of 12
Similarly , UNLV has won 11 of 12 in the ultra competitive Mountain West , arguably a top 6 league this year. They knocked off San Diego State the other night , who will likely get a 4 seed.
Not rewarding these teams that could actually win a game or 2 over the 8th team from a league or 7th team in a league or to reward Wisconsin and Virginia , one team having lost 8 of 10 and the other one who has scored under 50 five times this year is not logical if you want the best teams. USF and UNLV would likely beat Wisconsin and Virginia if played next week. We are not talking about a 4 or 5 game hot streak but 15 in a row and 11 out of 12
We were supposedly dinged for losing 6 of 8 after Mag went down before beating Michigan in the Big 10 tourney while Wisconsin and Virginia are fully healthy and losing
Who knows what would happen in one game, but Wisconsin and Virginia would be favored over both of them (Virginia a little closer, but Wisconsin would be like a 6 point favorite over South Florida on a neutral court tonight...I certainly wouldn't say that either South Florida or UNLV would be "likely" to win.
That is your opinion . Mine is they both win and be the easiest moneyline bet I have ever made.
But you didn’t address my point , about teams winning 15 in a row in a decent conference or 11-12 to end the year as being more worthy of getting a bid compared to the losers of 8 of 10 and a pathetically challenged offensive team.
I personally like the fact that every game counts the same...it's like MLB/NFL/etc, where the whole season matters, and you don't reward a team for a hot finish vs season long performance. I love watching those games in November knowing that they have a huge impact on NCAA selection.
As for the other point, I have no belief that a team that's better offensively makes them a better team than a team that's defense is their strength. I don't care if their are offensively challenged if their defense makes up for it.
Does anyone else remember what a big deal the ACC tournament used to be? Conference tournaments meant something when they determined which team was going to the NCAA. Now they're just another TV moneymaker.
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Wisconsin continues to have 6 q1 and 6 Q2 wins...making them 12-11 with no loss outside Q2, a sos of 7, non conference 22, overall net 23. I believe they are one of only 9 schools to have 12 or more quad 1 wins and that is why their seeding is not freefalling
there situation is not similar to rutgers, they do not have an injury, they are going through a horrible stretch where they have lost 7 of 9
Wisconsin has been dinged...they were a possible 3 seed...that has moved down, I currently had them at 5 on my monday night bracket but as a 6 in my new bracket today.
and I made a mistake, they did not lose to Stetson, they lost to Southern which is actually worse since the former at 208 and the latter at 240
the AAC is just rated 10th this year and USF couldnt even get a Q1 win out of those wins....oops edit Memphis now up to Q1 at 72 so for now they have 1 Q1 win. the best win is FAU...schools like charlotte and uab are not good teams just because they win games in this sinking league. If I were FAU I would try to get into the ACC
USF has losses to Umass, Hofstra and in Q4 Maine and central michigan...they totally failed the non conference portion of their season and that sos was 322
Wisconsin has exactly 1 highQuad 1 win against instate rival Marquette . They lost to Tennessee by 10 and by 25 to Arizona and to out of the field Providence by 12 , while they were supposedly hot as you called them a possible 3 seed. They beat Virginia who is hanging on for dear life as a 10 or 11 seed , they beat Michigan State 2x which is treading towards a 10 or 11 seed , beat Nebraska and lost to them , beat Northwestern at home , who is trending towards a 7/8 seed and beat Iowa and lost to Iowa , who is presently out of the field.
Not all Quad 1 wins or Quad 2 wins are the same. You are hanging your placement of them based upon beating teams as the 10th or 11th seeds or teams out of the tourney that just happen to fit a Quad 1 or 2 profile . On what grounds did you think at 1 point they were a possible 3 seed ? A closer look at their resume shows that was a mirage and their present losing streak including losing to Michigan and being blown out by Rutgers doesn’t justify anything close to a 5/6 seed.
Pointing out what happened in December and ignoring their 15 game winning streak is putting your head in the sand , and you are saying it is impossible for them to have gotten a lot better and impossible to overcome those Quad 4 losses early in the year. Rutgers lost to Lafayette and we beat 4 ranked teams and the committee realized we were a deserving team and winning 15 in a row for South Florida has to mean something. The object of the game is to win and 15 in a row fulfills that
The committee themselves has Wisconsin as a 4 seed in their early reveal, and that was after a 1-4 stretch that included losses to Rutgers and Michigan. I'd say it's pretty reasonable to believe that they would have been a 3 seed at their peak.
they have 6 wins vs schools in the field are one of only 9 school with 12 Q1/2 wins or more and one of 14 with 6 Q1 wins more. Their sos is impeccable at 7
the schools below them competing do not have some of the same stuff
is wisconsin likely to wind up a 7...i would predict that is likely, but i am giving you today, and right now they are on the 6 line
USF has every opportunity to prove they are real by winning the conference tournament in league that simply isnt good
usf scheduled very poorly and lost games to horrific schools, a double negative.....kudos to them them they have won alot of games in a league that isnt so good.
Meanwhile Drake has a win over Nevada. Appalachian State beat Auburn. James Madison beat Michigan State....those have better arguments than a team who beat FAU a team all the way down to a 10 seed who is living more off last years run than anything else IMO
South Florida does not have any win that compares to what Rutgers did a few years back
Rewarding teams that really were not that good and really didn’t beat anyone of note except their rival and not rewarding teams that clearly have gotten better over a very long stretch just doesn’t seem right to me but apparently you are fine with it.
The AAC is a hell of a lot better than the Sun Belt and the Missouri Valley as evidenced by UCF and Cincinnati and Houston coming into the BIG 12 and being elite or just competitive , but all is peachy . So if UNLV makes it to the title game in the competitive Mountain West and South Florida makes it to the title game , which would be 18 in a row , and 14of 15 and they lose in the championship game , your bracket has no place for them ?
Your argument is that the AAC is good this year because their top teams left?
And yes, Bac's bracket has no place for them because he actually understands how this works
they will be considered but likely not have enough
Conference tourneys at this point are playing little role
The argument against is Princeton. Nobody will play them.
So how do you punish teams for a poor out of conference when other schools won’t play them.
Power 5 schools won’t play Princeton as might lose and certainly won’t schedule home and home.
Mid majors won’t because likely to lose.
JMU deserves in.
So how do you punish teams for a poor out of conference when other schools won’t play them.
Power 5 schools won’t play Princeton as might lose and certainly won’t schedule home and home.
Mid majors won’t because likely to lose.
JMU deserves in.
ALSO
There are 6 Mountain West schools with BETTER overall profiles than UNLV currently. The 7th rated conference is not getting 7 bids
There are 6 Mountain West schools with BETTER overall profiles than UNLV currently. The 7th rated conference is not getting 7 bids
Who says no one will play them. Perhaps they are not willing to be flexible to games. Princeton plays weird schedule where they skip weeks
I see Yale and Cornell have Kansas and Baylor on their schedule
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What about them
Why would we plat at Jadwin..its ludicrous
Princeton isnt our problem or our rivalry for that matter
Historically our oldest rival like it or not. (Lehigh or Lafayette I suppose one can argue but premise remains).
Closest rival like it or not geographically.
You’re supporting what Princeton has been saying. No one will play them so why they should they be punished for OOC schedule.
JMU making similar argument. No reason to doubt them.
Closest rival like it or not geographically.
You’re supporting what Princeton has been saying. No one will play them so why they should they be punished for OOC schedule.
JMU making similar argument. No reason to doubt them.
Who said no one
Yale and cornell have 2 games with power 6 schools
not sure why rutgers would think a neutral site game is for anyones benefit other than Princeton and politicians who wanted us to play in shithole Trenton
Jmu played at Michigan state but the rest of their schedule was ass
Why didnt Princeton schedule them
Seton Hall looking good up on Nova 50-37 with under 10 to go
Sparty looking awful down 25-20 at home to Northwestern at halftime
Sparty looking awful down 25-20 at home to Northwestern at halftime
top seed Central Connecticut State under duress up only 63-61 to St Francis in Northeast tourney quarters
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