Okay here is the update heading into conference tournament week. You know the drill. Grab a cup of java and come in. Questions, comments, cheers and jeers are encouraged if not required.
There are 22 one bid conferences. There are 10 multi bid conferences.There are 36 at large bids and I have locked in 25 at large bids leaving 11 bids still available and 18 schools competing. I made the locks all the way down midway through the 9 line
1: KANSAS (Big 12), BAYLOR, GONZAGA (WCC), DAYTON (A10)
2: SAN DIEGO STATE, FLORIDA STATE (ACC), CREIGHTON (BIG EAST), DUKE
3: LOUISVILLE, VILLANOVA, MICHIGAN STATE, KENTUCKY (SEC)
4: OREGON (PAC 12), MARYLAND, SETON HALL, BYU
5: WISCONSIN (BIG 10), AUBURN, WEST VIRGINIA, OHIO STATE
6: BUTLER, ILLINOIS, COLORADO, MICHIGAN
7: ARIZONA, VIRGINIA, IOWA, PENN STATE
8: PROVIDENCE, HOUSTON, FLORIDA, LSU
9: SAINT MARY'S, UTAH STATE (MWC),
9 SEEDS
1. (32) RUTGERS 19-11: Q1: 4-9, Q2: 5-1, road 2-8, SOS 42/101
Well here we are. It only took 29 years to get here. There have been a couple of brushes in the past but never a season like this for the Scarlet Knights since 1991. RU answered their critics with a pounding nails gritty overtime win at Purdue. The road mark has always been an issue. Something I worried about when Bacatology began for me on February 1. It can be negative. It can knock schools out. However usually its when you have some other blemish like perhaps not enough Q1 and 2 wins. The Knights have 9. They got 2 in a matter of days..and while the home win over Penn State slipped to Q2, there is no doubt their two biggest wins of the season were Maryland and at Purdue because they happened when RU had to have them. Backs against the wall, they earned their way in. Lots to like beyond the recent winning. RU beat Wisconsin the co Big 10 champ and took down Illinois and Big East champ Seton Hall and Indiana and do not forget SF Austin. A whopping 7 wins vs teams projected in the field. 2-8...2-10 counting neutral still sticks out but the rest of the resume simply overwhelms it. I suppose if a bunch of cranky selection committee members decide to have a bug up their ass, RU could get snubbed without a win over Michigan in what would be the big travesty of justice in the history of college basketball. RU should be in period, no matter what happens vs Michigan. Do not count out a run from the Knights in the Big 10 tourney which could substantially improve their seeding if they can get by the Michigan bugaboo. There they are America's team...the Rutgers Scarlet Knights...Dance I said.
2. (45) USC 22-9: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 6-1, road 5-6, SOS 72/189
Trojans all but punched their dance ticket with a thrilling last second win over UCLA. Back against the wall, USC picked up 3 of their biggest wins of the season to end the year by sweeping the Arizona schools and knocking off their rival. Now with 10 Q1&2 wins including a non conference win over LSU and their only meeting with Stanford. In a crowded muddled Pac 12 bubble, they went 3-1 vs the other 3 schools and gained the needed seperation. Look locked and loaded to go without having to beat the AZ/Washington winner in the Pac 12 quarters
10 SEEDS
3. (26) MARQUETTE 18-12: Q1: 5-10, Q2: 6-2, road 3-8, SOS 5/61
Golden Eagles were a 4-5 seed type a few weeks, even last week they were 7, maybe 8 at worst. As the losses at bottom feeders St John's and De Paul made it 6 losses in the last 7 games their once locked in status may be in jeopardy. They would appear to have a bit of some cushion. The problem is they actually were seeded 6th meaning they will not be able to pick up a win vs De Paul in the opening round. It means they a thrown right into the fire vs Seton Hall. Obviously a win over the Pirates locks them in but a loss which seems likely given their recent form is going to send them from a decent position today to a likely first four appearance and whenever you are that close to the cut line and compared with other schools it makes things dicey. Would not be surprised at all if they are left out of the field. There are no bad losses and the sos is excellent at 5 but a closer look is showing that wins over Nova, USC, and Xavier 2x may not be enough for them. The sweep over Xavier is big, but if XU makes a run in the BE tourney, the Muskateers will jump the Eagles.
(46) OKLAHOMA 19-12: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 6-3, road 4-8, SOS 29/68
Sooners probably saved their season by rallying from way back to win at TCU. Its very liikely they would have been on the wrong side of the bubble heading into the Big 12 tourney. Now the Sooners have at least find themselves in a slight better spot than the other 2 conference bubbles who must face each other in the conference tourney. Sooners win the tiebreak and wind up 3rd seed and get WVU again, a team they swept. Still there are only 3 wins of note on the resume, Texas Tech the other, the Sooners would do themselves well to beat WVU to make it academic. A loss and a run by perhaps Texas could make things dicey. There are not bad losses here and the sos is solid enough at 29. Note there are two losses to bubble schools Wichta State and Stanford so those are going to factor in at some point in the final evaluation.
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
5. (22) TEXAS TECH 18-13: Q1: 3-10, Q2:4-3, road 3-7, SOS 54/182
Red Raiders are this years test case to see how important is the overall NET number. At 22, they scream lock but a deeper dig in to their profile says "hey wait a minute". Now up to a whopping 10 Q3 losses and even worse 13 in both Quads....7-13 is a poor mark and adding in Q3 its just 10-13. Not many schools survive that kind of mark. A first round loss to Texas could be deadly adding to these metrics and yet their NET will probably remain in the 20s. A really good win over Louisville but after that just WVU and Oklahoma. They split with Texas. Another win over Texas wont necessarily build the profile but a loss could cause their profile to take on water while perhaps being the catalyst for a Longhorn run. Might be headed to the first 4 in the end.
11 SEEDS
(51) CINCINNATI (AAC) 20-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 7-0, road 5-6, 4 Q3 losses, SOS 21/27
Bearcats are now projected as the autobid winner from the AAC but will be considered as an at large if they lose in the conference tourney. Cincy rallied to beat Temple and survived what would have been a fatal loss to their at large hopes. Their reward was a three way tie atop the AAC where they won the tiebreaker and grab the top seed. They avoid Houston but are slated to possibly face Wichita State in the semis in what really is shaping up as a play in game where the loser is likely out. Cincy swept Wichita this year and has a win over Houston but that is folks. They may be 9-6 in Q1/2 but its full of teams more suited for the NIT at best. The second problem is 4 Q3 losses. Going to be tough to overcome given that they do not have the quality wins on the profile to overcome them. Losses to the likes of UCF and Tulane are tough to forgive. AAC will likely be a two bid league, league simply not strong enough to take 3.
6. (60) INDIANA 19-12: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 5-2, road 2-8, SOS 47/71
Hoosiers blew a late lead vs Wisconsin where they could have locked up their bid but now find themselves floating down to dangerous territory. The overall loss mark starting to be an issue, now 10 vs Q1 and 9-12 vs Q1 &2. Seen these kind of profiles especially with a poor road mark get left out. Obviously there are strong wins....Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, and Iowa and the biggie Florida State. In fact besides Rutgers, Indy may have the best wins on the bubble. Conference mark isnt on the team sheet but they did finish 9-11 and were seeded 11th for the Big 10 tourney. Playing a bad Nebby is not going to do anything but hurt their metrics and up next would be another crack at Penn State a team who is fading. A win there would wrap it up but a loss and Archie the Clown might be praying that they can reach the first 4.
7. (52) ARIZONA STATE 20-11: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 4-3, road 6-5, SemOS 15/55
Sun Devils had elevated their profile to the 8 line with a great start to February but a poor finish to the month has them sinking. Road losses to the LA schools can be forgiven but that loss at home to Washington was devestating to their standing. It adds to some other wtf moments such as losing to St Mary's by 40, Arizona by 28 and at bottom feeding Washington State. Now those things could come into play if ASU who somehow snared the 3 seed, does not beat the Colorado/Washington St winner in the quarters. The wins are solid yet seem rather unspectacular as we end the year...Oregon, Arizona, Stanford, USC and UCLA and note they lost to 4 of these schools too. Could the Sun Devils be headed to their 3rd straight First Four appearance or will the committee say pass, next.
PLAY IN 11 SEEDS
8. (30) STANFORD 20-11: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 3-3, road 4-6, SOS 92/219
Back to back losses to the Oregon schools have left the Cardinal in a very precarious position. Seeded 7th in the Pac 12 tourney draw Cal in the opener but its like the next game vs UCLA may be a tourney play in game where the loser may get bounced. Just 7-10 vs Q1 &2 is lacking and that sos isnt so hot either especially the ooc sos of 219. In league just wins over Oregon, Colorado and UCLA. Note the win over Oklahoma is nice to have in their pocket if it comes down to it. There really is only one bad loss to a Q3 Cal but getting swept by Oregon State is not a good look for a school on the bubble line.
9. (44) XAVIER 19-12: Q1: 3-11, Q2: 7-1, road 5-6, SOS 11/65
Muskateers resume looking wafer thin as the loss total in Q1 is getting ugly. Sure the sos of 11 is strong and 10 wins in Q1&2 is strong but 11 losses in Q1 seems unwieldy right now. XU had a bad week which saw them lose at Providence and failed to bolster the resume in the needed way by losing late to Butler. The win at Seton Hall is certainly good but its their only Q1 win vs a tourney team. 2 Q2 wins vs Providence and in for now Cincy are solid but they clearly are lacking in necessary beef for a power 6 school especially in the quality win laden Big East. They draw De Paul in the BE opener where a loss would knock them out for sure but do they have to beat Nova as well in the quarters. Not sure I like their chances given a bid stealer here or there and invariably some team just outside the bubble will emphatically make a run to play their way in.
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
10. (76) UCLA 18-12: Q1: 6-7, Q2: 3-3, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-5, SOS 48/201
Bruins 7 game win streak came to a halt in a heartbreaking last second loss at USC. UCLA had bolster their Q1 win total to 6 by picking up an additional 3 Q1 wins during that streak. Their profile now includes a sweep over Arizona and Colorado and an additional win over ASU. Those wins are certainly strong but is it good enough to overcome the many warts. There is a Q3 loss to Hofstra, a Q4 loss to Cal State Fullerton, bad Q2 losses to UNC and Washington State. The best OOC win was just 109 UNLV and that non conference sos of 201 is deadly. Its an interesting profile but the loss at USC was a missed opportunity for another needed quality win but was important because it knocked the Bruins out of first place. Winning a regular season Pac 12 title would have been an added bonus to their resume, without it, a win over Stanford is basically mandatory to remain in the field....and that might not even be enough
11. (54) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 19-12: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 4-5, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-7, SOS 65/89
The Pack have floated in and out of the field the past two weeks depending on the day. For now they just make the cut but its very clearly to remain in the field, they will simply need to win their first round game vs Wake/Pitt in the ACC tourney and then beat Duke again. Its very likely that path will be shut without that Duke win. The resume is very middling. Yes there is the Duke, Wisconsin and Virginia wins but there are the 2 Q3 losses and some bad Q2 losses....too many losses to mediocrity like Va Tech, BC, Clemson, UNC and Ga Tech both 2x. This will not be like last years surprise snub, I do not think this is a tourney team when all is said and done
12: STEPHEN F AUSTIN, AKRON, VERMONT
13: YALE, LIBERTY, NORTH TEXAS, NEW MEXICO STATE
14: BELMONT, CAL IRVINE, BRADLEY, COLGATE
15: EASTERN WASHINGTON, HOFSTRA, NORTHERN KENTUCKY, LITTLE ROCK
16: WINTHROP, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, SIENA/NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL, ROBERT MORRIS/PRAIRIE VIEW
OUT
12. (37) RICHMOND 24-7: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 3-2, road 9-3, SOS 85/85
Spiders sheer win total of 24 and their overall NET now at 37 are the two things that stand out on a rather meh resume. Again the committee likes to reward the little guy but with no bid stealers around its looking like the Spiders could benefit. Compared to some of the bloated toads from the power 6, they offer an alternative. Still thought they are pinning their hopes on just a win over Wisconsin as the only team in the field they have beaten. With Rhody and VCU falling by the wayside, they are clearly are the only realistic at large hope and those chances rest with making it through Davidson and Rhody to face Dayton in the A10 finals. They would have 26 wins at that point and would add a Q2 to their wanting total. Then win or lose, I think the Spiders will dance.
13. (69) TEXAS 19-12: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 2-4, road 6-5, SOS 43/120
Longhorns picked up 3 quality wins and seemed on the verge of punching their ticket but suffered a horrendous home beatdown to Oklahoma State. That loss cratered the overall NET. Their best loss Purdue is no longer a serious tourney contender. The 3 wins that the Horns picked up are unfortunately the only 3 quality wins they have...OK, Texas Tech, WVU. Its does not appear its going to be enough at this time. The 7-12 mark vs Q1&2 is not attractive. Texas gets matched up with Texas Tech where a loss will basically end their hopes and a win might not even be enough. They still might have to beat Baylor to dance. Tough spot to be in but I have seen teams like this play their way in.
14. (41) WICHITA STATE 23-8: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 7-3, road 5-5, SOS 69/139
Wheat Shockers have treaded water just in or just out of the field the past couple of week so its fitting they figure to sit there right until the selections are announced. Their profile rest solely on a win over Oklahoma and 8 other Q1 and 2s vs middling to barely NIT schools. They went 0-4 vs Houston and Cincy and the best conference win is just Memphis and the recent one to Tulsa. Will the committee reward a profile like this who has a lot of wins and clean profile with no bad losses. Well absolutely they need to beat the UConn/Tulane winner but its going to be the matchup with Cincinnati that is likely the play in or play out game. A win there puts them in the AAC finals and likely gets that 2nd bid from the league. However just do not see how this conference can pull of 3 bids this year. What if its Tulsa in the final and Wichita loses?
15. (48) NORTHERN IOWA 23-6: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 3-2, road 3-2, 3 Q3 losses, SOS 115/113
We were told that the Panthers would be a legit at large contender if they lost in their Missouri Valley conference tournament. We were not told that once they were absolutely hammered by weak sauce Drake that the metrics would simply not hold up when compared to even the soft underbelly of the bubble. Just do not see it here. For one losing by 20 plus to to a Q3 school at this stage should be a non starter. Northern Iowa did beat Colorado but the Buffs are fading somewhat while the other win over South Carolina is looking pretty pedestrian. Its likely the bunch of Q3 losses, the 2 others being So Illinois and Illinois State are too much to overcome. Some make a comparison to Belmont last year but Belmont had better metrics across the board albeit UNI had the better win by far. Hard to argue for them when high mid majors like Richmond and Wichita have better metrics playing a better schedule.
16. (47) ARKANSAS 19-12: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 2-6, road 4-8, SOS 25/12
Not a fan of the Razorbacks profile because they are living off just a win over LSU and one on the road at Indiana. In between alot of Q2 losses to middling SEC folk like Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri and tough to argue for them over Mississippi State when they got swept by the Bulldogs. Yet the SOS is strong in league and out so that at least keeps them in the game with their overall net at 47. Seeded a woeful 11th after finishing 7-11 in the SEC, their path includes games vs Vandy, So Carolina and LSU just to reach the semis. They will have to win them all, then they likely would need to beat Auburn to make the finals. That is the path. Possible yet unlikely.
17. (50) MISSISSIPPI STATE 20-11: Q1: 2-7, Q2: 6-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-7, SOS 71/106
Bulldogs barely hanging on but the there is a path. Seeded 4th in the SEC, they get a double bye then get the winner of Florida/OleMiss-Ga, a win there and then a win over Kentucky and there you go, a legit bubble team that still may need another one to reach the SEC finals. Well easier said then done but its pretty clear what they have to do. All that is really here are a win over Florida and a sweep to Arkansas. There are 2 Q3 losses to La Tech and New Mexico St and the best non conference win was just Kansas State. Told you there was nothing here.
18. (33) PURDUE 16-15: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 5-4, road 4-8, SOS 40/83
That sound you heard in Mackey on Saturday was Geo Baker letting the air out of the Boilermakers bubble. They were close. A win would have put them 17-14 and likely in the field. The wins here are impressive.....Iowa 2x, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana 2x and Virginia....That is 7 wins vs tourney teams. Only Rutgers on this entire list has that many. Unfortunately the 16-15 mark is a non starter. Very tough to get by just winning 2 tourney games and be just 2 games over 500 see Indiana last year with a similar profile. Its likely Purdue has to get 3 wins which means a run to the Big 10 final. It starts with Ohio State and then Mich State and possibly Maryland. That seems to be asking alot for a team who might be better suited to make a NIT championship run.
LAST 4 BYES: OKLAHOMA, TEXAS TECH, INDIANA, ARIZONA STATE
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, UCLA, XAVIER, STANFORD
FIRST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, TEXAS, WICHITA STATE, NORTHERN IOWA
NEXT 4 OUT: ARKANSAS, MISSISSIPPI STATE, PURDUE, MEMPHIS
There are 22 one bid conferences. There are 10 multi bid conferences.There are 36 at large bids and I have locked in 25 at large bids leaving 11 bids still available and 18 schools competing. I made the locks all the way down midway through the 9 line
1: KANSAS (Big 12), BAYLOR, GONZAGA (WCC), DAYTON (A10)
2: SAN DIEGO STATE, FLORIDA STATE (ACC), CREIGHTON (BIG EAST), DUKE
3: LOUISVILLE, VILLANOVA, MICHIGAN STATE, KENTUCKY (SEC)
4: OREGON (PAC 12), MARYLAND, SETON HALL, BYU
5: WISCONSIN (BIG 10), AUBURN, WEST VIRGINIA, OHIO STATE
6: BUTLER, ILLINOIS, COLORADO, MICHIGAN
7: ARIZONA, VIRGINIA, IOWA, PENN STATE
8: PROVIDENCE, HOUSTON, FLORIDA, LSU
9: SAINT MARY'S, UTAH STATE (MWC),
9 SEEDS
1. (32) RUTGERS 19-11: Q1: 4-9, Q2: 5-1, road 2-8, SOS 42/101
Well here we are. It only took 29 years to get here. There have been a couple of brushes in the past but never a season like this for the Scarlet Knights since 1991. RU answered their critics with a pounding nails gritty overtime win at Purdue. The road mark has always been an issue. Something I worried about when Bacatology began for me on February 1. It can be negative. It can knock schools out. However usually its when you have some other blemish like perhaps not enough Q1 and 2 wins. The Knights have 9. They got 2 in a matter of days..and while the home win over Penn State slipped to Q2, there is no doubt their two biggest wins of the season were Maryland and at Purdue because they happened when RU had to have them. Backs against the wall, they earned their way in. Lots to like beyond the recent winning. RU beat Wisconsin the co Big 10 champ and took down Illinois and Big East champ Seton Hall and Indiana and do not forget SF Austin. A whopping 7 wins vs teams projected in the field. 2-8...2-10 counting neutral still sticks out but the rest of the resume simply overwhelms it. I suppose if a bunch of cranky selection committee members decide to have a bug up their ass, RU could get snubbed without a win over Michigan in what would be the big travesty of justice in the history of college basketball. RU should be in period, no matter what happens vs Michigan. Do not count out a run from the Knights in the Big 10 tourney which could substantially improve their seeding if they can get by the Michigan bugaboo. There they are America's team...the Rutgers Scarlet Knights...Dance I said.
2. (45) USC 22-9: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 6-1, road 5-6, SOS 72/189
Trojans all but punched their dance ticket with a thrilling last second win over UCLA. Back against the wall, USC picked up 3 of their biggest wins of the season to end the year by sweeping the Arizona schools and knocking off their rival. Now with 10 Q1&2 wins including a non conference win over LSU and their only meeting with Stanford. In a crowded muddled Pac 12 bubble, they went 3-1 vs the other 3 schools and gained the needed seperation. Look locked and loaded to go without having to beat the AZ/Washington winner in the Pac 12 quarters
10 SEEDS
3. (26) MARQUETTE 18-12: Q1: 5-10, Q2: 6-2, road 3-8, SOS 5/61
Golden Eagles were a 4-5 seed type a few weeks, even last week they were 7, maybe 8 at worst. As the losses at bottom feeders St John's and De Paul made it 6 losses in the last 7 games their once locked in status may be in jeopardy. They would appear to have a bit of some cushion. The problem is they actually were seeded 6th meaning they will not be able to pick up a win vs De Paul in the opening round. It means they a thrown right into the fire vs Seton Hall. Obviously a win over the Pirates locks them in but a loss which seems likely given their recent form is going to send them from a decent position today to a likely first four appearance and whenever you are that close to the cut line and compared with other schools it makes things dicey. Would not be surprised at all if they are left out of the field. There are no bad losses and the sos is excellent at 5 but a closer look is showing that wins over Nova, USC, and Xavier 2x may not be enough for them. The sweep over Xavier is big, but if XU makes a run in the BE tourney, the Muskateers will jump the Eagles.
(46) OKLAHOMA 19-12: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 6-3, road 4-8, SOS 29/68
Sooners probably saved their season by rallying from way back to win at TCU. Its very liikely they would have been on the wrong side of the bubble heading into the Big 12 tourney. Now the Sooners have at least find themselves in a slight better spot than the other 2 conference bubbles who must face each other in the conference tourney. Sooners win the tiebreak and wind up 3rd seed and get WVU again, a team they swept. Still there are only 3 wins of note on the resume, Texas Tech the other, the Sooners would do themselves well to beat WVU to make it academic. A loss and a run by perhaps Texas could make things dicey. There are not bad losses here and the sos is solid enough at 29. Note there are two losses to bubble schools Wichta State and Stanford so those are going to factor in at some point in the final evaluation.
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
5. (22) TEXAS TECH 18-13: Q1: 3-10, Q2:4-3, road 3-7, SOS 54/182
Red Raiders are this years test case to see how important is the overall NET number. At 22, they scream lock but a deeper dig in to their profile says "hey wait a minute". Now up to a whopping 10 Q3 losses and even worse 13 in both Quads....7-13 is a poor mark and adding in Q3 its just 10-13. Not many schools survive that kind of mark. A first round loss to Texas could be deadly adding to these metrics and yet their NET will probably remain in the 20s. A really good win over Louisville but after that just WVU and Oklahoma. They split with Texas. Another win over Texas wont necessarily build the profile but a loss could cause their profile to take on water while perhaps being the catalyst for a Longhorn run. Might be headed to the first 4 in the end.
11 SEEDS
(51) CINCINNATI (AAC) 20-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 7-0, road 5-6, 4 Q3 losses, SOS 21/27
Bearcats are now projected as the autobid winner from the AAC but will be considered as an at large if they lose in the conference tourney. Cincy rallied to beat Temple and survived what would have been a fatal loss to their at large hopes. Their reward was a three way tie atop the AAC where they won the tiebreaker and grab the top seed. They avoid Houston but are slated to possibly face Wichita State in the semis in what really is shaping up as a play in game where the loser is likely out. Cincy swept Wichita this year and has a win over Houston but that is folks. They may be 9-6 in Q1/2 but its full of teams more suited for the NIT at best. The second problem is 4 Q3 losses. Going to be tough to overcome given that they do not have the quality wins on the profile to overcome them. Losses to the likes of UCF and Tulane are tough to forgive. AAC will likely be a two bid league, league simply not strong enough to take 3.
6. (60) INDIANA 19-12: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 5-2, road 2-8, SOS 47/71
Hoosiers blew a late lead vs Wisconsin where they could have locked up their bid but now find themselves floating down to dangerous territory. The overall loss mark starting to be an issue, now 10 vs Q1 and 9-12 vs Q1 &2. Seen these kind of profiles especially with a poor road mark get left out. Obviously there are strong wins....Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, and Iowa and the biggie Florida State. In fact besides Rutgers, Indy may have the best wins on the bubble. Conference mark isnt on the team sheet but they did finish 9-11 and were seeded 11th for the Big 10 tourney. Playing a bad Nebby is not going to do anything but hurt their metrics and up next would be another crack at Penn State a team who is fading. A win there would wrap it up but a loss and Archie the Clown might be praying that they can reach the first 4.
7. (52) ARIZONA STATE 20-11: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 4-3, road 6-5, SemOS 15/55
Sun Devils had elevated their profile to the 8 line with a great start to February but a poor finish to the month has them sinking. Road losses to the LA schools can be forgiven but that loss at home to Washington was devestating to their standing. It adds to some other wtf moments such as losing to St Mary's by 40, Arizona by 28 and at bottom feeding Washington State. Now those things could come into play if ASU who somehow snared the 3 seed, does not beat the Colorado/Washington St winner in the quarters. The wins are solid yet seem rather unspectacular as we end the year...Oregon, Arizona, Stanford, USC and UCLA and note they lost to 4 of these schools too. Could the Sun Devils be headed to their 3rd straight First Four appearance or will the committee say pass, next.
PLAY IN 11 SEEDS
8. (30) STANFORD 20-11: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 3-3, road 4-6, SOS 92/219
Back to back losses to the Oregon schools have left the Cardinal in a very precarious position. Seeded 7th in the Pac 12 tourney draw Cal in the opener but its like the next game vs UCLA may be a tourney play in game where the loser may get bounced. Just 7-10 vs Q1 &2 is lacking and that sos isnt so hot either especially the ooc sos of 219. In league just wins over Oregon, Colorado and UCLA. Note the win over Oklahoma is nice to have in their pocket if it comes down to it. There really is only one bad loss to a Q3 Cal but getting swept by Oregon State is not a good look for a school on the bubble line.
9. (44) XAVIER 19-12: Q1: 3-11, Q2: 7-1, road 5-6, SOS 11/65
Muskateers resume looking wafer thin as the loss total in Q1 is getting ugly. Sure the sos of 11 is strong and 10 wins in Q1&2 is strong but 11 losses in Q1 seems unwieldy right now. XU had a bad week which saw them lose at Providence and failed to bolster the resume in the needed way by losing late to Butler. The win at Seton Hall is certainly good but its their only Q1 win vs a tourney team. 2 Q2 wins vs Providence and in for now Cincy are solid but they clearly are lacking in necessary beef for a power 6 school especially in the quality win laden Big East. They draw De Paul in the BE opener where a loss would knock them out for sure but do they have to beat Nova as well in the quarters. Not sure I like their chances given a bid stealer here or there and invariably some team just outside the bubble will emphatically make a run to play their way in.
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
10. (76) UCLA 18-12: Q1: 6-7, Q2: 3-3, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-5, SOS 48/201
Bruins 7 game win streak came to a halt in a heartbreaking last second loss at USC. UCLA had bolster their Q1 win total to 6 by picking up an additional 3 Q1 wins during that streak. Their profile now includes a sweep over Arizona and Colorado and an additional win over ASU. Those wins are certainly strong but is it good enough to overcome the many warts. There is a Q3 loss to Hofstra, a Q4 loss to Cal State Fullerton, bad Q2 losses to UNC and Washington State. The best OOC win was just 109 UNLV and that non conference sos of 201 is deadly. Its an interesting profile but the loss at USC was a missed opportunity for another needed quality win but was important because it knocked the Bruins out of first place. Winning a regular season Pac 12 title would have been an added bonus to their resume, without it, a win over Stanford is basically mandatory to remain in the field....and that might not even be enough
11. (54) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 19-12: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 4-5, 2 Q3 losses, road 5-7, SOS 65/89
The Pack have floated in and out of the field the past two weeks depending on the day. For now they just make the cut but its very clearly to remain in the field, they will simply need to win their first round game vs Wake/Pitt in the ACC tourney and then beat Duke again. Its very likely that path will be shut without that Duke win. The resume is very middling. Yes there is the Duke, Wisconsin and Virginia wins but there are the 2 Q3 losses and some bad Q2 losses....too many losses to mediocrity like Va Tech, BC, Clemson, UNC and Ga Tech both 2x. This will not be like last years surprise snub, I do not think this is a tourney team when all is said and done
12: STEPHEN F AUSTIN, AKRON, VERMONT
13: YALE, LIBERTY, NORTH TEXAS, NEW MEXICO STATE
14: BELMONT, CAL IRVINE, BRADLEY, COLGATE
15: EASTERN WASHINGTON, HOFSTRA, NORTHERN KENTUCKY, LITTLE ROCK
16: WINTHROP, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, SIENA/NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL, ROBERT MORRIS/PRAIRIE VIEW
OUT
12. (37) RICHMOND 24-7: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 3-2, road 9-3, SOS 85/85
Spiders sheer win total of 24 and their overall NET now at 37 are the two things that stand out on a rather meh resume. Again the committee likes to reward the little guy but with no bid stealers around its looking like the Spiders could benefit. Compared to some of the bloated toads from the power 6, they offer an alternative. Still thought they are pinning their hopes on just a win over Wisconsin as the only team in the field they have beaten. With Rhody and VCU falling by the wayside, they are clearly are the only realistic at large hope and those chances rest with making it through Davidson and Rhody to face Dayton in the A10 finals. They would have 26 wins at that point and would add a Q2 to their wanting total. Then win or lose, I think the Spiders will dance.
13. (69) TEXAS 19-12: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 2-4, road 6-5, SOS 43/120
Longhorns picked up 3 quality wins and seemed on the verge of punching their ticket but suffered a horrendous home beatdown to Oklahoma State. That loss cratered the overall NET. Their best loss Purdue is no longer a serious tourney contender. The 3 wins that the Horns picked up are unfortunately the only 3 quality wins they have...OK, Texas Tech, WVU. Its does not appear its going to be enough at this time. The 7-12 mark vs Q1&2 is not attractive. Texas gets matched up with Texas Tech where a loss will basically end their hopes and a win might not even be enough. They still might have to beat Baylor to dance. Tough spot to be in but I have seen teams like this play their way in.
14. (41) WICHITA STATE 23-8: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 7-3, road 5-5, SOS 69/139
Wheat Shockers have treaded water just in or just out of the field the past couple of week so its fitting they figure to sit there right until the selections are announced. Their profile rest solely on a win over Oklahoma and 8 other Q1 and 2s vs middling to barely NIT schools. They went 0-4 vs Houston and Cincy and the best conference win is just Memphis and the recent one to Tulsa. Will the committee reward a profile like this who has a lot of wins and clean profile with no bad losses. Well absolutely they need to beat the UConn/Tulane winner but its going to be the matchup with Cincinnati that is likely the play in or play out game. A win there puts them in the AAC finals and likely gets that 2nd bid from the league. However just do not see how this conference can pull of 3 bids this year. What if its Tulsa in the final and Wichita loses?
15. (48) NORTHERN IOWA 23-6: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 3-2, road 3-2, 3 Q3 losses, SOS 115/113
We were told that the Panthers would be a legit at large contender if they lost in their Missouri Valley conference tournament. We were not told that once they were absolutely hammered by weak sauce Drake that the metrics would simply not hold up when compared to even the soft underbelly of the bubble. Just do not see it here. For one losing by 20 plus to to a Q3 school at this stage should be a non starter. Northern Iowa did beat Colorado but the Buffs are fading somewhat while the other win over South Carolina is looking pretty pedestrian. Its likely the bunch of Q3 losses, the 2 others being So Illinois and Illinois State are too much to overcome. Some make a comparison to Belmont last year but Belmont had better metrics across the board albeit UNI had the better win by far. Hard to argue for them when high mid majors like Richmond and Wichita have better metrics playing a better schedule.
16. (47) ARKANSAS 19-12: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 2-6, road 4-8, SOS 25/12
Not a fan of the Razorbacks profile because they are living off just a win over LSU and one on the road at Indiana. In between alot of Q2 losses to middling SEC folk like Texas A&M, Georgia, Missouri and tough to argue for them over Mississippi State when they got swept by the Bulldogs. Yet the SOS is strong in league and out so that at least keeps them in the game with their overall net at 47. Seeded a woeful 11th after finishing 7-11 in the SEC, their path includes games vs Vandy, So Carolina and LSU just to reach the semis. They will have to win them all, then they likely would need to beat Auburn to make the finals. That is the path. Possible yet unlikely.
17. (50) MISSISSIPPI STATE 20-11: Q1: 2-7, Q2: 6-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-7, SOS 71/106
Bulldogs barely hanging on but the there is a path. Seeded 4th in the SEC, they get a double bye then get the winner of Florida/OleMiss-Ga, a win there and then a win over Kentucky and there you go, a legit bubble team that still may need another one to reach the SEC finals. Well easier said then done but its pretty clear what they have to do. All that is really here are a win over Florida and a sweep to Arkansas. There are 2 Q3 losses to La Tech and New Mexico St and the best non conference win was just Kansas State. Told you there was nothing here.
18. (33) PURDUE 16-15: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 5-4, road 4-8, SOS 40/83
That sound you heard in Mackey on Saturday was Geo Baker letting the air out of the Boilermakers bubble. They were close. A win would have put them 17-14 and likely in the field. The wins here are impressive.....Iowa 2x, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Indiana 2x and Virginia....That is 7 wins vs tourney teams. Only Rutgers on this entire list has that many. Unfortunately the 16-15 mark is a non starter. Very tough to get by just winning 2 tourney games and be just 2 games over 500 see Indiana last year with a similar profile. Its likely Purdue has to get 3 wins which means a run to the Big 10 final. It starts with Ohio State and then Mich State and possibly Maryland. That seems to be asking alot for a team who might be better suited to make a NIT championship run.
LAST 4 BYES: OKLAHOMA, TEXAS TECH, INDIANA, ARIZONA STATE
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA STATE, UCLA, XAVIER, STANFORD
FIRST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, TEXAS, WICHITA STATE, NORTHERN IOWA
NEXT 4 OUT: ARKANSAS, MISSISSIPPI STATE, PURDUE, MEMPHIS
Last edited:
