Okay here is the update after some serious numbers crunching.. You know the drill. Grab a cup of java and come in. Questions, comments, cheers and jeers are encouraged if not required. Have a heart, didnt have much time to proofread.
There are 22 one bid conferences. There are 10 multi bid conferences.There are 36 at large bids and I have locked in 21 at large bids leaving 15 bids still available. I made the locks all the way down midway through the 8 line..we can revist WVU later if needed.
1: KANSAS (Big 12), BAYLOR, GONZAGA (WCC), SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
2: DAYTON (A10), MARYLAND (Big 10), SETON HALL (Big East), FLORIDA STATE (ACC)
3: KENTUCKY (SEC), DUKE, VILLANOVA, LOUISVILLE
4: MICHIGAN STATE, CREIGHTON, OREGON, AUBURN
5: PENN STATE, OHIO STATE, BYU, ILLINOIS
6: WISCONSIN, IOWA, BUTLER, HOUSTON (AAC)
7: ARIZONA, COLORADO, MARQUETTE, MICHIGAN
8: VIRGINIA, WEST VIRGINIA
8 SEEDS
1. (31) ST MARY'S 23-7: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 4-3, 2 Q3 losses, road 6-3, SOS 56/94
Gaels avoided the loss at Santa Clara which was all they had to. No harm done by losing at Gonazga. Look lock and loaded at this point as the third team from the WCC. Some really strong wins vs bubble schools, a 40 point drubbing of Arizona State, a looking better everyday win over Wisconsin and a key win over Utah State. The two Q3 losses were bad but even if they suffer a loss in the quarters to Pepperdine/SantaClara-Portland cannot see there is a realistic scenerio that knocks them out of the field.
2. (33) FLORIDA 18-11: Q1: 4-8, Q2: 4-3, road 3-7, SOS 34/16
Gators missed a chance at locking in by falling at Tennessee continue to struggle on the road in the SEC. UF probable has the best profile of all the SEC bubbles including LSU who they just knocked off and have beaten most of them with the exception of Mississippi State. Biggest win of course was Auburn but those 2 neutral site wins vs Xavier and PC are looking better. Kentucky invades to close the season where picking up a win would emphatically punch their ticket but Gators better not get bit by Georgia or they may not be able to sustain a loss to Kentucky without notching a win in the SEC tourney.
9 SEEDS
3. (32) LSU 20-9: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 8-1, road 5-5, SOS 13/8
Tigers seem to get a bit rough gaited during the month of February. Failed to add needed quality wins, suffered some head scratching losses and a closer look at the resume makes you wonder where the quality wins are. The SOS is strong no doubt and that is reflecting in their losses but some losses to close bubble schools Utah State, USC, and E Tenn St. Now while the Rhody win looking less impressive, the Texas one is looking better. Yet in league they only got Kentucky/Auburn once and split with Florida. That is only 1 win vs projected school in the field...2 if you add Liberty. They seem to have enough cushion from the bottom of the projected field in but face a dangerous test at Arkansas and a home tilt with Georgia. One win in either should be enough. Lose both and things could get interesting despite have 11 Q1 and 2 wins.
4. (44) PROVIDENCE 17-12: Q1: 7-8, Q2: 4-0, 3 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-6, SOS 9/128
Two weeks ago, the Friars were zombie, last week they were scandalous, this week they are a 9 seed. See what happens when you win at home and on the road knocking off all the stalwarts in the Big East. As hideous looking as those losses to Long Beach State, Penn, Northwestern, and Charleston are, the sheer amount of quality wins, the Friars picked up in the last month has obliterated concern for the losses. 7 Quad 1 wins and 6 of them in February...SHU, Nova, Butler, Creighton, Marquette and Gtown and 3 of them happened on the road. Are you ****ing kidding me? Just Xavier and De Paul left and probably just one of those is needed. Only way they dont make is lose both and lose first round BE tourney and I just do not see that form reversal to the negative happening.
5. (39) USC 21-9: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 6-1, road 5-6, SOS 61/152
Let me note right away that there is very little right now seperating USC on the 9 line and Texas Tech as the last 10 seed. It's thisclose. Trojans bolstered their sagging resume by sweeping the Arizona schools. OOC there was the good win over LSU and a couple other in league quality wins vs Stanford and UCLA. However with the sheer number of bubble schools up to 4 now and perhaps a little bit of a hit to the profile of the Pac 12 because of cannibalism, USC still needs to be careful. UCLA at home is next, a win there will vault them in and perhaps send the Bruins out for now. A loss and they will need a quality win in the Pac 12 to feel safe.
6. (54) INDIANA 18-11: Q1; 6-9, Q2: 2-2, road 2-8, SOS 45/77
The overall NET might be lagging but the Hoosiers have some really good wins here compared to most bubble schools. FSU in non conference play. Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State and Penn State highlight in league wins. Thing is they are all at home. Road record a bit of an issue, there is a quad 1 win at Minnesota but they are not in the field. Still overall the breadth of this resume looks like its enough. Note no bad losses. As long as Indy does not implode down the stretch which requires them just splitting at home vs Minnesota and Wisconsin. Lose both and Archie's bunch will be in trouble.
10 SEEDS
(37) NORTHERN IOWA 23-5: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 8-4, SOS 118/135
Panthers are the projected autobid winner from the Missouri Valley Conference but they will be a serious at large contender should they lose in their conference tourney. Probably the most likely of the little guys to get an at large. They have a big quality road win at Colorado and another nice neutral site win vs South Carolina. The two Q3 losses are unfortunate but last year showed the committee is willing to reward one little guy. Best case is for them to reach the MVC finals.
(41) EAST TENNESSEE STATE 24-4: Q1; 1-2, Q2: 2-1, 1 Q4 loss, road 11-3, SOS 131/80
Bucs are the projected autobid winner from the Southern Conference but they will be a serious at large contender should they lose in their conference tourney. Boy did they avoid disaster by hitting a last second three to avoid a bad loss at home to Western Carolina. Best win at LSU and give them credit for scheduling Kansas. They actually have the same number of wins vs teams projected in field as Duke. Bucs wins over Little Rock and Winthrop sneaky good. There is a Q4 loss to Mercer spoiling the sheet and yes 21 of 24 wins are beyond Quads 1 and 2 but this looks like a NCAA tourney team that can win more than one game.
7. (49) ARIZONA STATE 19-10: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 4-2, road 6-5, SOS 12/56
Sun Devils was swept by USC/UCLA and suddenly their momentum has halted. The overall NET number is lagging behind conference mates USC/Stanford and now they have to deal with a first place UCLA in the at large picture. They have the wins in league over who they need to...Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, USC and UCLA but also lost to 4 of these schools. However a big hole is non conference, they were wacked by 40 to St Mary's and their best win is just St John's. On the plus side is the SOS of 12 and no bad losses. Would like to see them sweep the Washington schools at home to make it academic rather than leave it to their Pac 12 tourney fate.
8. (23) TEXAS TECH 18-11: Q1: 3-8, Q2: 4-3, road 3-6, SOS 88/174
Red Raiders with a great overall NET but the warts are becoming more evident after losses to Oklahoma and Texas, two schools trying to play their way into the field. I have seen profiles like this before. Looking all but locked a month before Selection Sunday but gradually floating to the last 4 in line. The issue is the upcoming finish to the season is outrageously brutal...at Baylor and home to Kansas. Obviously win one and the point is moot. But two losses would drop them to 18-13 and also drop them to just 10-13 vs the first 3 Quads. Its not a historical place to be and that is when stuff like road record and a mediocre SOS could come into play. The neutral site win over Louisville is a real good win but the WVU win looking less lovely. Split with Texas and Oklahoma. Going to be very interesting to watch a possible implosion somewhere in the Big 12 tournament. EDIT: Loss at Baylor did not change Texas Tech's placement, still one of the first 4 byes.
11 SEEDS
(76) UCLA 18-11: Q1: 6-6, Q2: 3-3, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-4, SOS 58/209
Bruins were the new zombie school last week but now step into the field as the most scandalous. Yes UCLA is currently in first in the Pac 12 and the projected autobid winner. Whether they can sustain or fall into the bubble pecking order rests on whether they can continue their hot streak at USC. Make it 7 wins in a row and they picked up 4 wins vs schools in the field. Now up to 6 Q1 wins. They swept Arizona and Colorado to go with the ASU win. Still issues remain. The Bruins beat Arizona but their NET stunningly remained at 76. There is a Q3 loss to Hofstra but even worse a Q4 loss to Cal State Fullerton. Non conference sos of 209 big problem and the best OOC win was just UNLV. Such an unlikely run but the thinking is they still need more if they do not win the Pac 12 tourney. Without that win over USC this weekend, the pressure will be on for them to go deep in the Pac 12 tourney.
9. (35) RUTGERS 17-11: Q1: 3-9, Q2: 4-1, road 1-8, SOS 43/79
Oh Rutgers you sure have not made it easy. The Scarlet Knights have slid down the pecking order game by game and missed an opportunity to punch their dance ticket when they gave up a late 3 at Penn State after rallying from 20 down. Its long been documented the ugly road mark of 1-8,1-10 when considering neutral site games is just tamping the Knights profile down. As close as they have been, they have not been able to get it done and yes we know every night on the road in the Big 10 is like playing a 6 seed or better. Could it be the slip ups to mediocrity in Pitt and St Bonnies that play a factor? RU has not done much winning of late and that may be an issue that runs parallel with the lack of road wins. Stage is set though tomorrow at the RAC for a potential history making event. A chance to solidify a ticket to the dance something that has not been seen in Piscataway since 1991. Is a win over Maryland enough? It would be a win over the Big 10 leader, another Quad 1 win and a win vs a top 10 team. Its hard to imagine how a win that bountiful could not. A victory would launch their seed onto the 9 line and give them some cushion if that elusive win does not come at Purdue or in the Big 10 tourney. There are key metrics working in RU's favor....6-9 vs teams in the field is the best in the bubble. Plus their avg NET game loss of 39 is better than most in the bubble. Lose to Maryland and the win at Purdue becomes the next opportunity. No one can say the Scarlet Knights did not get every opportunity to play their way into the field.
10. (40) OKLAHOMA 18-11: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 5-2, road 3-8, SOS 31/60
Sooners saved their season by picking up two huge Q1 wins last week over Texas Tech and West Virginia. That completes a sweep over the fading Mountaineers. Add in the win over Texas and basically those are the 4 wins that OU is riding their at large hope on right now. OOC they lost to bubble Wichita State and Stanford. Win over fading Minnesota and CUSA projected winner North Texas. Big plusses are the SOS pretty solid and no bad losses. Big bubble showdown at home vs Texas. Soooners probably can absorb a loss there more than the Longhorns but a win there and win at TCU and Sooners should lock in. Lose both and they likely need a trip to the Big 12 finals.
11. (43) XAVIER 19-10: Q1: 3-9, Q2: 7-1, road 5-5, SOS 14/69
Muskateers avoided a bad loss to Georgetown, albeit a Q1 loss on the road but it was a game they had to have because of a brutal 2 game finish...at streaking Providence and home to Butler. They need to win one to stay on the right side of the bubble...two will lock them in, lose both and they will be in serious trouble needing a strong Big East tourney run. Its a clean profile with no bad losses and an overall strong SOS. Yet want to see more quality wins going forward. Certainly the win at Seton Hall runneth over, the next 2 wins are Providence and Cincinnati. Can play their way in or play their way out.
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
12 (28) STANFORD 20-9: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 3-3, road 4-4, SOS 96/215
Despite the strong NET of 28, the Cardinal have been lacking in quality wins and got a huge Q1 win over Colorado on Sunday. Certainly not the best of profile at least, but their profile is getting a bump from UCLA and Oklahoma improving their profile. There also is a win over Oregon thrown in. With a slew of Pac 12 bubbles nothing is certain so Stanford is in a bit of a tough spot with their trip to the Oregon schools. They may not have to beat Oregon but it is likely they will have to win that Oregon State or it may force them to make a run to the Pac 12 finals. Note their schedule strength particularly non conference is not very good. Those are the blemishes that the committee can point to for a resume that ends up a bit lacking.
13. (55) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 18-11: Q1: 4-4, Q2: 5-4, 3 Q3 losses, road 5-6, SOS 71/84
As of this writing, the Wolfpack just missed their shot at perhaps locking into the tournament with a season sweep of Duke. No shame losing that game but with a home game vs Wake left, it looks like NC State is going to need a win in the ACC quarters vs one of the top 4 to cement their bid. Not sure if they can sneak in without one. Look the wins of Duke, Wisconsin, and Virginia are very good no doubt, but its the 3 Quadrant 3 losses that are tough to ignore. The loss last week to UNC was killer joining Ga Tech/BC as other bad losses. Much like last season, the Pack have put their hopes into the mercy of the selection committee. Still in for now with the loss at Duke.
14. (38) UTAH STATE 21-8: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-6, SOS 119/89
Even with their crushing last minute loss at New Mexico, Aggies still find themselves hanging around the last 2 in line....for now. Aggies regular season is done while the rest of the bubble have 2 more games left plus more Q1 opportunities in conference tourneys. Have to be ruing those two Quad 3 conference losses and yes 17 of their 21 wins are non Q1 and 2. Riding two neutral site wins over Florida and LSU. That certainly puts them in the game here. Lost both to San Diego State and challenged themselves in losses to St Marys/BYU. USU only shot at a true quality win will be San Diego State and by doing that they win the MWC tournament. So while in now its a precarious spot. New Mexico and Nevada loom in the tourney. Aggies path resides in making the MWC finals and they "should" get in but watch out for a bid stealer.
15. (45) WICHITA STATE 22-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 7-3, road 5-4, SOS 80/134
Wheat Shockers back against the wall down 24 with their bubble about to pop simply tore it up and won at SMU. Its not a win that necessarily helps their resume but its just about avoiding losses at this point. Light on quality wins...only Oklahoma vs a team in the field, the Shockers have no bad losses and just 7 overall. Piling up alot of nice wins in Q2 but these are not the kind of wins to get you in the NCAA tournament. The AAC is the 7th rated conference. It is deserving of 2 bids. WSU is slightly ahead of Cincy despite going 0-4 vs Cincy/Houston. To stay in the field they will need to get some move the needle wins. Unfortunately do not think at Memphis/Tulsa while ballooning the win total to 24 are those games but they still are must win games. Its likely the Shockers need to beat either Cincy or Houston in the AAC to have any secure feelings about dancing.
12 SEEDS: LIBERTY, STEPHEN F AUSTIN
13 SEEDS: YALE, AKRON, VERMONT, NORTH TEXAS
14 SEEDS: NEW MEXICO STATE, HOFSTRA, COLGATE, BELMONT
15 SEEDS: UC IRVINE, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, WINTHROP, LITTLE ROCK
16 SEEDS: WRIGHT STATE, EASTERN WASHINGTON, ROBERT MORRIS/SIENA, PRAIRIE VEIW/NORTH CAROLINA A&T
OUT
16. (48) RICHMOND 22-7: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 1-2, road 8-3, SOS 93/100
Spiders got two more wins last week but it was more about not losing as the wins over UMass/GW did not move any needles. However the biggest win they have over Wisconsin is starting to look rosy. That win over Rhode Island might be key in evaluating Richmond's profile vis a vis the Rams. While they are not going head to head per se, they both find themselves on the last 4 in line. I do not feel the A10 is getting 3 bids. It is very likely a Richmond/URI showdown looms in the A10 semis. The Rams get one more shot at Dayton in regular season play but the Spiders only have potential landmines vs Davidson and a very dangeous game at Duquesne. With the Radford and St Bonnie's losses, they simply cannot afford another questionable loss. Big red flag though...18 of 22 wins coming from Q3 and Q4 schools.
17. (53) CINCINNATI 18-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 6-0, road 4-6, 4 Q3 losses, SOS 10/26
Bearcats are seemingly flip flopping in and out of the field each update. The loss to Houston knocked Cincy out of first place and the AAC autobid and back to the outside of the bubbles. Their issue resides with the bulky 4 Q3 losses they have. Tough to overlook something like that....Colgate, UCF, Bowling Green but the worst lowly Tulane. In addition,the quality win total remains light. Is beating Houston once and sweep Wichita State good enough given those Q3 losses. Its likely the Cats still are behind the Shockers simply because of those losses despite owning a sweep over them. Cincy cannot afford a slip up in the last 2 of at USF, home to Temple. They would do themselves well to get to the AAC finals. On the plus side that SOS of 9 will be noticed.
18. (51) RHODE ISLAND 20-8: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 6-2, 1 Q4 loss, road 7-5, SOS 69/4
Rams were media darlings a few weeks back but as we moved through February, not only were their metrics exposed but they were exposed on the court as well. That loss at Davidson, followed by a one point win at Fordham and then a home loss to St Louis swiftly sent URI to the out portion of the bubble. That NET which had soared into the mid 30s during a 10 game win streak has settled back to 51. When you get down to it, the Rams have just one quality win...Providence, they lost to Richmond. lost to Dayton and the wins over VCU mean little. Let's not forget there is a Quad 4 loss to Brown hidden on the team sheet. Yet a huge opportunity to change everything as Dayton comes to town. A win there might be all the Rams have to do to bounce back in. Is it enough? Well given Dayton has not loss and is a projected 2 seed, I would say it might be. Still with a loss, URI will not even be considered unless they can can reach the A10 finals and we know how unpredictable this tourney is.
19. (59) TEXAS 18-11: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 2-4, road 5-5, SOS 38/112
Horns are the third zombie school to hit the bubble and the first two are now in the field so can the Horns do it? What a week! A win at WVU and a home win over Texas Tech gave them the much needed Q1 wins to realistically position themselves. There still is plenty of work to do. The next best win is far bubble Purdue. Texas went 0-4 vs Kan/Bay and lost to PC, LSU, Gtown. There are several huge losses including a 29 point loss at lowly Iowa State. While overall the SOS is solid, 12 of their 18 wins are coming from Q3 and Q4. Longhorns absolutely need both of their last 2 games..the first a huge bubble showdown at Oklahoma, not sure they can survive a loss there...then a home tussle with OSU. Win those and they could leapfrog in but might need one B12 tourney game. Going to be interesting to watch the 3 Big 12 bubbles...thinking is only 2 of them survive.
20. (35) PURDUE 15-14: Q1: 4-11, Q2: 4-2, road 3-8, SOS 47/81
Boilermakers barely breathing but win their next 2 and they can legit be back near the last in line. No one can overlook the overall record, no team is getting in at 500 or even one game above 500. PU must get 3 games above 500 which means winning at and home to Rutgers and then winning one in the Big 10 tourney. Certainly possible but given Purdue's road woes winning at Iowa and home to RU. If they do not win at Iowa its all over for them. That 10-14 mark vs Q1-3 is a flashing danger sign right now. Losses to Texas and the real bad one at Nebraska look devastating when you look at the overall record. The wins are good..a sweep of Indiana, Virginia, Wisconsin two absolute beatdowns of Michigan St and Iowa. Overall their resume is quite similar to last years Indiana at 17-15 who didnt get in and its likely they suffer the same fate.
21. (42) ALABAMA 16-13: Q1: 1-7, Q2: 7-4, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-7, SOS 17/44
Tide keep hanging around even though they are in a thread the needle type position. The strong SOS and a strong overall NET are boosting their profile while their record sags and just one Q1 wins on the resume. They have been alternating wins and losses all February and some of those losses are not good like Texas A&M which joined Penn as a 2nd Q3 loss. There is some good here though...wins vs Auburn, LSU and a key win over bubble Richmond. However they also lost to bubble URI, split with Mississippi State, and lost to Arkansas. Those losses to Iowa State/UNC may be considered Q2 losses but they are bad losses at this point. Last two games of Vandy and at Missouri do not offer shots at quality wins so its likely the only path they have is picking up at least 2 quality SEC tourney wins which probably means making the finals.
22. (52) MISSISSIPPI STATE 19-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 5-2, road 4-6, SOS 57/99
Nothing truly spectacular on the Bulldogs resume but 19 wins. Riding solely on a win at Florida as the only win vs a school in the field, its likely that the Bulldogs must make a deep SEC tourney run with at least 2 quality wins meaning they will need a win vs Kentucky or Auburn. Lost to bubble Oklahoma. Did sweep bubble Arkansas but so what. Split with Alabama. Lost by 25 at Ole Miss, and have Q3 losses to New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech. Hard to realisitic make a case for their inclusion. Any loss in the last 2 of at South Carolina/Ole Miss will seal their fate.
23. (47) ARKANSAS 18-11: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-5, road 4-7, SOS 28/10
Of course the selection committee will consider the loss of Isaiah Joe during Arky's 5 game losing streak, but they also will consider that with him they lost to at middling Georgia. Sure it was only a Q2 loss but its a bad loss joining two other bad Q2 losses to Western Kentucky and Missouri. Yes the SOS is strong overall and stunning at 10 OOC but the reality is 13 of their 18 wins are coming from Quad 3 and 4. Their only win vs a team in the field was at Indiana. This is not a NCAA resume. Let us note they got swept by Mississippi State as well. Any shot they have to remain in contention rests with their upcoming home game vs LSU which would become possibly their biggest win of the season. Then they still will need to win at Texas A&M and pick up additional quality wins in the SEC tourney. The awfulness of the SEC reigns around the bubble
24. (62) MEMPHIS 20-9: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 5-2, road 5-5, 3 Q3 losses, SOS 89/162
Tigers still alive but mainly for the opportunity to come. They followed up that huge win over Houston but losing at SMU and barely surviving at bottom feeder Tulane. The NET at 62 is a serious issue for them with a bad OOC strength of schedule and perceived as a distant 3rd in the 3 school AAC bubble race. The wins they do have are a good base. Cincy/Houston and a nice neutral site win over NCState. The 3 Q3 losses are killers for their resume....Georgia, SMU, USF all at home. Yet bubble Wichita State pays a visit and then a trip to Houston loom. Win both and Memphis is legit sitting in that last in/last out position. Do not even think a split does them much good at this point given their warts and other AAC bubbles. Time to prove it.
25. (65)SOUTH CAROLINA 17-12: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 3-3, 1 Q4 loss, road 6-5, SOS 63/96
Cocks have a win over Kentucky and that at least keeps them alive..barely as the losses start to pile up. Yes there that win over Virginia is looking better but realistically time is running out for them. Just too many losses on a schedule that was not all that tough. Worst of all is the Q4 loss to Stetson and the Q3 loss to Boston U. The committee is not going to reward a school with those kind of losses unless they do something extraordinary like Providence and UCLA. Only path is to beat Mississippi St and Vandy and then probably reach the SEC finals..good luck.
26. (73) CLEMSON 15-13: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 5-5, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-7, SOS 40/182
So the Tigers appear to be the only school that knocked off the top 3 schools in the ACC...Florida State, Duke and Louisville so why are they languishing at 73 in the NET and no one is talking about them. Well that FSU win this weekend was huge but because they lost earlier in the week at Georgia Tech continues the run of bad losses in league play. They have 2 Q3 losses at home to bottom feeders Miami and Virginia Tech and have too many losses to okay but not great teams such as Notre Dame, Yale, South Carolina, Wake Forest, and Minnesota. Note a loss to bubble NC State. Also want to point out the 11-13 mark vs Q1, Q2 and Q3 will not historically cut it. Sure those wins are better than anyone outside on the bubble and the far majority in the bubble but there are just one too many red flags here. Their only hope is to win at Va Tech, beat Ga Tech at home and then likely take down one of the big 3 again and they might need two of those wins. Not waiting on this to happen.
FIRST 4 BYES: TEXAS TECH, RUTGERS, OKLAHOMA, XAVIER
LAST 4 IN: WICHITA STATE, UTAH STATE, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, STANFORD
FIRST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, CINCINNATI, RHODE ISLAND, TEXAS
NEXT 4 OUT: PURDUE, ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, ARKANSAS
There are 22 one bid conferences. There are 10 multi bid conferences.There are 36 at large bids and I have locked in 21 at large bids leaving 15 bids still available. I made the locks all the way down midway through the 8 line..we can revist WVU later if needed.
1: KANSAS (Big 12), BAYLOR, GONZAGA (WCC), SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC)
2: DAYTON (A10), MARYLAND (Big 10), SETON HALL (Big East), FLORIDA STATE (ACC)
3: KENTUCKY (SEC), DUKE, VILLANOVA, LOUISVILLE
4: MICHIGAN STATE, CREIGHTON, OREGON, AUBURN
5: PENN STATE, OHIO STATE, BYU, ILLINOIS
6: WISCONSIN, IOWA, BUTLER, HOUSTON (AAC)
7: ARIZONA, COLORADO, MARQUETTE, MICHIGAN
8: VIRGINIA, WEST VIRGINIA
8 SEEDS
1. (31) ST MARY'S 23-7: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 4-3, 2 Q3 losses, road 6-3, SOS 56/94
Gaels avoided the loss at Santa Clara which was all they had to. No harm done by losing at Gonazga. Look lock and loaded at this point as the third team from the WCC. Some really strong wins vs bubble schools, a 40 point drubbing of Arizona State, a looking better everyday win over Wisconsin and a key win over Utah State. The two Q3 losses were bad but even if they suffer a loss in the quarters to Pepperdine/SantaClara-Portland cannot see there is a realistic scenerio that knocks them out of the field.
2. (33) FLORIDA 18-11: Q1: 4-8, Q2: 4-3, road 3-7, SOS 34/16
Gators missed a chance at locking in by falling at Tennessee continue to struggle on the road in the SEC. UF probable has the best profile of all the SEC bubbles including LSU who they just knocked off and have beaten most of them with the exception of Mississippi State. Biggest win of course was Auburn but those 2 neutral site wins vs Xavier and PC are looking better. Kentucky invades to close the season where picking up a win would emphatically punch their ticket but Gators better not get bit by Georgia or they may not be able to sustain a loss to Kentucky without notching a win in the SEC tourney.
9 SEEDS
3. (32) LSU 20-9: Q1: 3-7, Q2: 8-1, road 5-5, SOS 13/8
Tigers seem to get a bit rough gaited during the month of February. Failed to add needed quality wins, suffered some head scratching losses and a closer look at the resume makes you wonder where the quality wins are. The SOS is strong no doubt and that is reflecting in their losses but some losses to close bubble schools Utah State, USC, and E Tenn St. Now while the Rhody win looking less impressive, the Texas one is looking better. Yet in league they only got Kentucky/Auburn once and split with Florida. That is only 1 win vs projected school in the field...2 if you add Liberty. They seem to have enough cushion from the bottom of the projected field in but face a dangerous test at Arkansas and a home tilt with Georgia. One win in either should be enough. Lose both and things could get interesting despite have 11 Q1 and 2 wins.
4. (44) PROVIDENCE 17-12: Q1: 7-8, Q2: 4-0, 3 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-6, SOS 9/128
Two weeks ago, the Friars were zombie, last week they were scandalous, this week they are a 9 seed. See what happens when you win at home and on the road knocking off all the stalwarts in the Big East. As hideous looking as those losses to Long Beach State, Penn, Northwestern, and Charleston are, the sheer amount of quality wins, the Friars picked up in the last month has obliterated concern for the losses. 7 Quad 1 wins and 6 of them in February...SHU, Nova, Butler, Creighton, Marquette and Gtown and 3 of them happened on the road. Are you ****ing kidding me? Just Xavier and De Paul left and probably just one of those is needed. Only way they dont make is lose both and lose first round BE tourney and I just do not see that form reversal to the negative happening.
5. (39) USC 21-9: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 6-1, road 5-6, SOS 61/152
Let me note right away that there is very little right now seperating USC on the 9 line and Texas Tech as the last 10 seed. It's thisclose. Trojans bolstered their sagging resume by sweeping the Arizona schools. OOC there was the good win over LSU and a couple other in league quality wins vs Stanford and UCLA. However with the sheer number of bubble schools up to 4 now and perhaps a little bit of a hit to the profile of the Pac 12 because of cannibalism, USC still needs to be careful. UCLA at home is next, a win there will vault them in and perhaps send the Bruins out for now. A loss and they will need a quality win in the Pac 12 to feel safe.
6. (54) INDIANA 18-11: Q1; 6-9, Q2: 2-2, road 2-8, SOS 45/77
The overall NET might be lagging but the Hoosiers have some really good wins here compared to most bubble schools. FSU in non conference play. Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State and Penn State highlight in league wins. Thing is they are all at home. Road record a bit of an issue, there is a quad 1 win at Minnesota but they are not in the field. Still overall the breadth of this resume looks like its enough. Note no bad losses. As long as Indy does not implode down the stretch which requires them just splitting at home vs Minnesota and Wisconsin. Lose both and Archie's bunch will be in trouble.
10 SEEDS
(37) NORTHERN IOWA 23-5: Q1: 1-1, Q2: 4-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 8-4, SOS 118/135
Panthers are the projected autobid winner from the Missouri Valley Conference but they will be a serious at large contender should they lose in their conference tourney. Probably the most likely of the little guys to get an at large. They have a big quality road win at Colorado and another nice neutral site win vs South Carolina. The two Q3 losses are unfortunate but last year showed the committee is willing to reward one little guy. Best case is for them to reach the MVC finals.
(41) EAST TENNESSEE STATE 24-4: Q1; 1-2, Q2: 2-1, 1 Q4 loss, road 11-3, SOS 131/80
Bucs are the projected autobid winner from the Southern Conference but they will be a serious at large contender should they lose in their conference tourney. Boy did they avoid disaster by hitting a last second three to avoid a bad loss at home to Western Carolina. Best win at LSU and give them credit for scheduling Kansas. They actually have the same number of wins vs teams projected in field as Duke. Bucs wins over Little Rock and Winthrop sneaky good. There is a Q4 loss to Mercer spoiling the sheet and yes 21 of 24 wins are beyond Quads 1 and 2 but this looks like a NCAA tourney team that can win more than one game.
7. (49) ARIZONA STATE 19-10: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 4-2, road 6-5, SOS 12/56
Sun Devils was swept by USC/UCLA and suddenly their momentum has halted. The overall NET number is lagging behind conference mates USC/Stanford and now they have to deal with a first place UCLA in the at large picture. They have the wins in league over who they need to...Arizona, Oregon, Stanford, USC and UCLA but also lost to 4 of these schools. However a big hole is non conference, they were wacked by 40 to St Mary's and their best win is just St John's. On the plus side is the SOS of 12 and no bad losses. Would like to see them sweep the Washington schools at home to make it academic rather than leave it to their Pac 12 tourney fate.
8. (23) TEXAS TECH 18-11: Q1: 3-8, Q2: 4-3, road 3-6, SOS 88/174
Red Raiders with a great overall NET but the warts are becoming more evident after losses to Oklahoma and Texas, two schools trying to play their way into the field. I have seen profiles like this before. Looking all but locked a month before Selection Sunday but gradually floating to the last 4 in line. The issue is the upcoming finish to the season is outrageously brutal...at Baylor and home to Kansas. Obviously win one and the point is moot. But two losses would drop them to 18-13 and also drop them to just 10-13 vs the first 3 Quads. Its not a historical place to be and that is when stuff like road record and a mediocre SOS could come into play. The neutral site win over Louisville is a real good win but the WVU win looking less lovely. Split with Texas and Oklahoma. Going to be very interesting to watch a possible implosion somewhere in the Big 12 tournament. EDIT: Loss at Baylor did not change Texas Tech's placement, still one of the first 4 byes.
11 SEEDS
(76) UCLA 18-11: Q1: 6-6, Q2: 3-3, 1 Q4 loss, road 5-4, SOS 58/209
Bruins were the new zombie school last week but now step into the field as the most scandalous. Yes UCLA is currently in first in the Pac 12 and the projected autobid winner. Whether they can sustain or fall into the bubble pecking order rests on whether they can continue their hot streak at USC. Make it 7 wins in a row and they picked up 4 wins vs schools in the field. Now up to 6 Q1 wins. They swept Arizona and Colorado to go with the ASU win. Still issues remain. The Bruins beat Arizona but their NET stunningly remained at 76. There is a Q3 loss to Hofstra but even worse a Q4 loss to Cal State Fullerton. Non conference sos of 209 big problem and the best OOC win was just UNLV. Such an unlikely run but the thinking is they still need more if they do not win the Pac 12 tourney. Without that win over USC this weekend, the pressure will be on for them to go deep in the Pac 12 tourney.
9. (35) RUTGERS 17-11: Q1: 3-9, Q2: 4-1, road 1-8, SOS 43/79
Oh Rutgers you sure have not made it easy. The Scarlet Knights have slid down the pecking order game by game and missed an opportunity to punch their dance ticket when they gave up a late 3 at Penn State after rallying from 20 down. Its long been documented the ugly road mark of 1-8,1-10 when considering neutral site games is just tamping the Knights profile down. As close as they have been, they have not been able to get it done and yes we know every night on the road in the Big 10 is like playing a 6 seed or better. Could it be the slip ups to mediocrity in Pitt and St Bonnies that play a factor? RU has not done much winning of late and that may be an issue that runs parallel with the lack of road wins. Stage is set though tomorrow at the RAC for a potential history making event. A chance to solidify a ticket to the dance something that has not been seen in Piscataway since 1991. Is a win over Maryland enough? It would be a win over the Big 10 leader, another Quad 1 win and a win vs a top 10 team. Its hard to imagine how a win that bountiful could not. A victory would launch their seed onto the 9 line and give them some cushion if that elusive win does not come at Purdue or in the Big 10 tourney. There are key metrics working in RU's favor....6-9 vs teams in the field is the best in the bubble. Plus their avg NET game loss of 39 is better than most in the bubble. Lose to Maryland and the win at Purdue becomes the next opportunity. No one can say the Scarlet Knights did not get every opportunity to play their way into the field.
10. (40) OKLAHOMA 18-11: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 5-2, road 3-8, SOS 31/60
Sooners saved their season by picking up two huge Q1 wins last week over Texas Tech and West Virginia. That completes a sweep over the fading Mountaineers. Add in the win over Texas and basically those are the 4 wins that OU is riding their at large hope on right now. OOC they lost to bubble Wichita State and Stanford. Win over fading Minnesota and CUSA projected winner North Texas. Big plusses are the SOS pretty solid and no bad losses. Big bubble showdown at home vs Texas. Soooners probably can absorb a loss there more than the Longhorns but a win there and win at TCU and Sooners should lock in. Lose both and they likely need a trip to the Big 12 finals.
11. (43) XAVIER 19-10: Q1: 3-9, Q2: 7-1, road 5-5, SOS 14/69
Muskateers avoided a bad loss to Georgetown, albeit a Q1 loss on the road but it was a game they had to have because of a brutal 2 game finish...at streaking Providence and home to Butler. They need to win one to stay on the right side of the bubble...two will lock them in, lose both and they will be in serious trouble needing a strong Big East tourney run. Its a clean profile with no bad losses and an overall strong SOS. Yet want to see more quality wins going forward. Certainly the win at Seton Hall runneth over, the next 2 wins are Providence and Cincinnati. Can play their way in or play their way out.
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
12 (28) STANFORD 20-9: Q1: 4-5, Q2: 3-3, road 4-4, SOS 96/215
Despite the strong NET of 28, the Cardinal have been lacking in quality wins and got a huge Q1 win over Colorado on Sunday. Certainly not the best of profile at least, but their profile is getting a bump from UCLA and Oklahoma improving their profile. There also is a win over Oregon thrown in. With a slew of Pac 12 bubbles nothing is certain so Stanford is in a bit of a tough spot with their trip to the Oregon schools. They may not have to beat Oregon but it is likely they will have to win that Oregon State or it may force them to make a run to the Pac 12 finals. Note their schedule strength particularly non conference is not very good. Those are the blemishes that the committee can point to for a resume that ends up a bit lacking.
13. (55) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 18-11: Q1: 4-4, Q2: 5-4, 3 Q3 losses, road 5-6, SOS 71/84
As of this writing, the Wolfpack just missed their shot at perhaps locking into the tournament with a season sweep of Duke. No shame losing that game but with a home game vs Wake left, it looks like NC State is going to need a win in the ACC quarters vs one of the top 4 to cement their bid. Not sure if they can sneak in without one. Look the wins of Duke, Wisconsin, and Virginia are very good no doubt, but its the 3 Quadrant 3 losses that are tough to ignore. The loss last week to UNC was killer joining Ga Tech/BC as other bad losses. Much like last season, the Pack have put their hopes into the mercy of the selection committee. Still in for now with the loss at Duke.
14. (38) UTAH STATE 21-8: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-6, SOS 119/89
Even with their crushing last minute loss at New Mexico, Aggies still find themselves hanging around the last 2 in line....for now. Aggies regular season is done while the rest of the bubble have 2 more games left plus more Q1 opportunities in conference tourneys. Have to be ruing those two Quad 3 conference losses and yes 17 of their 21 wins are non Q1 and 2. Riding two neutral site wins over Florida and LSU. That certainly puts them in the game here. Lost both to San Diego State and challenged themselves in losses to St Marys/BYU. USU only shot at a true quality win will be San Diego State and by doing that they win the MWC tournament. So while in now its a precarious spot. New Mexico and Nevada loom in the tourney. Aggies path resides in making the MWC finals and they "should" get in but watch out for a bid stealer.
15. (45) WICHITA STATE 22-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 7-3, road 5-4, SOS 80/134
Wheat Shockers back against the wall down 24 with their bubble about to pop simply tore it up and won at SMU. Its not a win that necessarily helps their resume but its just about avoiding losses at this point. Light on quality wins...only Oklahoma vs a team in the field, the Shockers have no bad losses and just 7 overall. Piling up alot of nice wins in Q2 but these are not the kind of wins to get you in the NCAA tournament. The AAC is the 7th rated conference. It is deserving of 2 bids. WSU is slightly ahead of Cincy despite going 0-4 vs Cincy/Houston. To stay in the field they will need to get some move the needle wins. Unfortunately do not think at Memphis/Tulsa while ballooning the win total to 24 are those games but they still are must win games. Its likely the Shockers need to beat either Cincy or Houston in the AAC to have any secure feelings about dancing.
12 SEEDS: LIBERTY, STEPHEN F AUSTIN
13 SEEDS: YALE, AKRON, VERMONT, NORTH TEXAS
14 SEEDS: NEW MEXICO STATE, HOFSTRA, COLGATE, BELMONT
15 SEEDS: UC IRVINE, NORTH DAKOTA STATE, WINTHROP, LITTLE ROCK
16 SEEDS: WRIGHT STATE, EASTERN WASHINGTON, ROBERT MORRIS/SIENA, PRAIRIE VEIW/NORTH CAROLINA A&T
OUT
16. (48) RICHMOND 22-7: Q1: 3-4, Q2: 1-2, road 8-3, SOS 93/100
Spiders got two more wins last week but it was more about not losing as the wins over UMass/GW did not move any needles. However the biggest win they have over Wisconsin is starting to look rosy. That win over Rhode Island might be key in evaluating Richmond's profile vis a vis the Rams. While they are not going head to head per se, they both find themselves on the last 4 in line. I do not feel the A10 is getting 3 bids. It is very likely a Richmond/URI showdown looms in the A10 semis. The Rams get one more shot at Dayton in regular season play but the Spiders only have potential landmines vs Davidson and a very dangeous game at Duquesne. With the Radford and St Bonnie's losses, they simply cannot afford another questionable loss. Big red flag though...18 of 22 wins coming from Q3 and Q4 schools.
17. (53) CINCINNATI 18-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 6-0, road 4-6, 4 Q3 losses, SOS 10/26
Bearcats are seemingly flip flopping in and out of the field each update. The loss to Houston knocked Cincy out of first place and the AAC autobid and back to the outside of the bubbles. Their issue resides with the bulky 4 Q3 losses they have. Tough to overlook something like that....Colgate, UCF, Bowling Green but the worst lowly Tulane. In addition,the quality win total remains light. Is beating Houston once and sweep Wichita State good enough given those Q3 losses. Its likely the Cats still are behind the Shockers simply because of those losses despite owning a sweep over them. Cincy cannot afford a slip up in the last 2 of at USF, home to Temple. They would do themselves well to get to the AAC finals. On the plus side that SOS of 9 will be noticed.
18. (51) RHODE ISLAND 20-8: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 6-2, 1 Q4 loss, road 7-5, SOS 69/4
Rams were media darlings a few weeks back but as we moved through February, not only were their metrics exposed but they were exposed on the court as well. That loss at Davidson, followed by a one point win at Fordham and then a home loss to St Louis swiftly sent URI to the out portion of the bubble. That NET which had soared into the mid 30s during a 10 game win streak has settled back to 51. When you get down to it, the Rams have just one quality win...Providence, they lost to Richmond. lost to Dayton and the wins over VCU mean little. Let's not forget there is a Quad 4 loss to Brown hidden on the team sheet. Yet a huge opportunity to change everything as Dayton comes to town. A win there might be all the Rams have to do to bounce back in. Is it enough? Well given Dayton has not loss and is a projected 2 seed, I would say it might be. Still with a loss, URI will not even be considered unless they can can reach the A10 finals and we know how unpredictable this tourney is.
19. (59) TEXAS 18-11: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 2-4, road 5-5, SOS 38/112
Horns are the third zombie school to hit the bubble and the first two are now in the field so can the Horns do it? What a week! A win at WVU and a home win over Texas Tech gave them the much needed Q1 wins to realistically position themselves. There still is plenty of work to do. The next best win is far bubble Purdue. Texas went 0-4 vs Kan/Bay and lost to PC, LSU, Gtown. There are several huge losses including a 29 point loss at lowly Iowa State. While overall the SOS is solid, 12 of their 18 wins are coming from Q3 and Q4. Longhorns absolutely need both of their last 2 games..the first a huge bubble showdown at Oklahoma, not sure they can survive a loss there...then a home tussle with OSU. Win those and they could leapfrog in but might need one B12 tourney game. Going to be interesting to watch the 3 Big 12 bubbles...thinking is only 2 of them survive.
20. (35) PURDUE 15-14: Q1: 4-11, Q2: 4-2, road 3-8, SOS 47/81
Boilermakers barely breathing but win their next 2 and they can legit be back near the last in line. No one can overlook the overall record, no team is getting in at 500 or even one game above 500. PU must get 3 games above 500 which means winning at and home to Rutgers and then winning one in the Big 10 tourney. Certainly possible but given Purdue's road woes winning at Iowa and home to RU. If they do not win at Iowa its all over for them. That 10-14 mark vs Q1-3 is a flashing danger sign right now. Losses to Texas and the real bad one at Nebraska look devastating when you look at the overall record. The wins are good..a sweep of Indiana, Virginia, Wisconsin two absolute beatdowns of Michigan St and Iowa. Overall their resume is quite similar to last years Indiana at 17-15 who didnt get in and its likely they suffer the same fate.
21. (42) ALABAMA 16-13: Q1: 1-7, Q2: 7-4, 2 Q3 losses, road 4-7, SOS 17/44
Tide keep hanging around even though they are in a thread the needle type position. The strong SOS and a strong overall NET are boosting their profile while their record sags and just one Q1 wins on the resume. They have been alternating wins and losses all February and some of those losses are not good like Texas A&M which joined Penn as a 2nd Q3 loss. There is some good here though...wins vs Auburn, LSU and a key win over bubble Richmond. However they also lost to bubble URI, split with Mississippi State, and lost to Arkansas. Those losses to Iowa State/UNC may be considered Q2 losses but they are bad losses at this point. Last two games of Vandy and at Missouri do not offer shots at quality wins so its likely the only path they have is picking up at least 2 quality SEC tourney wins which probably means making the finals.
22. (52) MISSISSIPPI STATE 19-10: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 5-2, road 4-6, SOS 57/99
Nothing truly spectacular on the Bulldogs resume but 19 wins. Riding solely on a win at Florida as the only win vs a school in the field, its likely that the Bulldogs must make a deep SEC tourney run with at least 2 quality wins meaning they will need a win vs Kentucky or Auburn. Lost to bubble Oklahoma. Did sweep bubble Arkansas but so what. Split with Alabama. Lost by 25 at Ole Miss, and have Q3 losses to New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech. Hard to realisitic make a case for their inclusion. Any loss in the last 2 of at South Carolina/Ole Miss will seal their fate.
23. (47) ARKANSAS 18-11: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-5, road 4-7, SOS 28/10
Of course the selection committee will consider the loss of Isaiah Joe during Arky's 5 game losing streak, but they also will consider that with him they lost to at middling Georgia. Sure it was only a Q2 loss but its a bad loss joining two other bad Q2 losses to Western Kentucky and Missouri. Yes the SOS is strong overall and stunning at 10 OOC but the reality is 13 of their 18 wins are coming from Quad 3 and 4. Their only win vs a team in the field was at Indiana. This is not a NCAA resume. Let us note they got swept by Mississippi State as well. Any shot they have to remain in contention rests with their upcoming home game vs LSU which would become possibly their biggest win of the season. Then they still will need to win at Texas A&M and pick up additional quality wins in the SEC tourney. The awfulness of the SEC reigns around the bubble
24. (62) MEMPHIS 20-9: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 5-2, road 5-5, 3 Q3 losses, SOS 89/162
Tigers still alive but mainly for the opportunity to come. They followed up that huge win over Houston but losing at SMU and barely surviving at bottom feeder Tulane. The NET at 62 is a serious issue for them with a bad OOC strength of schedule and perceived as a distant 3rd in the 3 school AAC bubble race. The wins they do have are a good base. Cincy/Houston and a nice neutral site win over NCState. The 3 Q3 losses are killers for their resume....Georgia, SMU, USF all at home. Yet bubble Wichita State pays a visit and then a trip to Houston loom. Win both and Memphis is legit sitting in that last in/last out position. Do not even think a split does them much good at this point given their warts and other AAC bubbles. Time to prove it.
25. (65)SOUTH CAROLINA 17-12: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 3-3, 1 Q4 loss, road 6-5, SOS 63/96
Cocks have a win over Kentucky and that at least keeps them alive..barely as the losses start to pile up. Yes there that win over Virginia is looking better but realistically time is running out for them. Just too many losses on a schedule that was not all that tough. Worst of all is the Q4 loss to Stetson and the Q3 loss to Boston U. The committee is not going to reward a school with those kind of losses unless they do something extraordinary like Providence and UCLA. Only path is to beat Mississippi St and Vandy and then probably reach the SEC finals..good luck.
26. (73) CLEMSON 15-13: Q1: 3-6, Q2: 5-5, 2 Q3 losses, road 3-7, SOS 40/182
So the Tigers appear to be the only school that knocked off the top 3 schools in the ACC...Florida State, Duke and Louisville so why are they languishing at 73 in the NET and no one is talking about them. Well that FSU win this weekend was huge but because they lost earlier in the week at Georgia Tech continues the run of bad losses in league play. They have 2 Q3 losses at home to bottom feeders Miami and Virginia Tech and have too many losses to okay but not great teams such as Notre Dame, Yale, South Carolina, Wake Forest, and Minnesota. Note a loss to bubble NC State. Also want to point out the 11-13 mark vs Q1, Q2 and Q3 will not historically cut it. Sure those wins are better than anyone outside on the bubble and the far majority in the bubble but there are just one too many red flags here. Their only hope is to win at Va Tech, beat Ga Tech at home and then likely take down one of the big 3 again and they might need two of those wins. Not waiting on this to happen.
FIRST 4 BYES: TEXAS TECH, RUTGERS, OKLAHOMA, XAVIER
LAST 4 IN: WICHITA STATE, UTAH STATE, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, STANFORD
FIRST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, CINCINNATI, RHODE ISLAND, TEXAS
NEXT 4 OUT: PURDUE, ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI STATE, ARKANSAS
