He provides sources-people and articles by NYT and WaPo....as I have pointed out to you already. Are they all lying? His reference to cases decreasing is relative to the prior increases...again that trend is still holding post Jun-2, that is starting Jun-3, the date you are so consumed with. Geez.
As RU#’s has made clear on numerous occasions, that means 900k - 2.6 million Americans dead. Grade school simple math.
That and the article never states what kind of radiation, which is also a miss, IMO. I've already seen someone with low technical IQ on FB citing this as why there's "zero risk" outdoors, which is a load of crap. However, it's good to have ways to deactivate the virus from high risk areas like hospitals. I wouldn't put much stock in a UVC system for room air, though, since the dilution that would occur in any ventilation system is pretty large and the dose is key to infection - I think circumstantial reports of infections through ventilation systems are questionable, at best - the vast majority are person to person.
That's if they can clear all the hurdles associated with mRNA vaccines - there are reasons an mRNA vaccine has never made it to market.
That was an estimate based on what was known at the time.
Fair opinion to have and that may be right. But the facts around the math are unchanged. The herd immunity % is still the same, and no new data has been displayed to bring the IFR below his estimated range of 0.5-1%.
That's correct...if no vaccine or cure (I think there will be) and if the virus doesn't weaken (low probability and no sign of it yet) or there isn't more natural immunity in the population than we think (possible, hard to get that data). Also, the rate at which we approach those numbers, via herd immunity, is hugely dependent on our interventions - so far some countries are doing so well that their transmission and death rates are very, very low and it would take decades to reach herd immunity (and they could completely eliminate the virus, like New Zealand has if not for infections from other countries).
There was a fairly detailed account of people who got the virus in a restaurant in China where the people who got it were sitting in the direct path of the air and those at another table did not get it.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/health/airflow-coronavirus-restaurants.html
That's part of why I've been estimating an infection fatality rate of 0.5-1.0%. Currently, our best data on that is 1.1-1.2% IFR based on NY and Spain having those rates (the only large populations with antibody population sampling, so the only countries that have a decent estimate of the true infection rate), but it's fair to say that perhaps a higher fraction of vulnerable people was infected in the first wave and that medical science is improving treatments (certainly know that's now becoming a factor with convalescent plasma, remdesivir, tocilizumab, and now dexamethasone), although my guess is, at best, these might halve the IFR. As I've also said, I think the engineered antibodies will blow these other treatments away and be at least close to a cure - I hope I'm right. But until we have any of that in place, I think the 0.5-10.0% IFR is a decent estimate and that eventually would lead to 0.0-2.6MM US deaths at 55-80% infected - simple math.
1)It's not about lying, it's about contradicting points. Are AZ cases decreasing? Or are they increasing because of people from Mexico?
No idea - just have a friend who is a contributor there and needed a little science input - please share...
speaking of panic, where is formerly?
Wow you're monotonous. If you're trying to bore me to death and get the last word you may actually "win".
NJ seems to have it currently under control.
This was brought up previously, and I think there is some sound reasoning there. I do think a 20-30% antibody rate would have an effect. Maybe not a big effect, but some effect.
NYC moving to Phase 2 Monday. Northeast and Europe have the virus under control. This week we had the best news on treatments since this started.
Well we are seeing that experiment play out in some states now. Early results are alarming.
