Yeah that’s what I was getting at. We and the rest of the world were totally caught off guard. I guess China and S Korea were more prepared due to SARS which happened -15 years ago. I think globally we will be ready for this or whatever comes at us next
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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In and out within 30 minutes at a walk in site. Sped things up by filling out info online before arriving. Needed a medical insurance card and a photo ID. Will test you to see if you register positive for Covid-19 and/or a test for Covid-19 antibodies in your system. But you have to ask for both. One withdraws some blood and the other puts a thin swab up your nose. Both were easy. The swab does not hurt but may make you want to sneeze. That subsides quickly.
Results come back within a week. Mine took 5 days. They call a phone number you leave with them.
https://covid19.nj.gov/search.html?query=Testing+Centers+in+NJ
Yet we still have regular issues with the common cold, influenza, norovirus, and HIV. People still get ebola, though there are effective treatments for it so I won't muddy the water with that one.
Numbers way down even with protests, beaches, parks and people out and about.
Not just beaches, but from what I've seen (here) the boardwalks in NJ are packed.
Either herd immunity requires a much lower pct. infected than the experts think or it's just not that easy to catch outdoors.
I'm riding up to Maine July 7th, but I have no plans on staying in any hotels, just going to my buddy's place in Mount Chase, is there a checkpoint at the state line or how are they going about checking for people to see if they took the test?
Sorry, there are a lot of qualified people saying the opposite, and his comments about not developing a coronavirus vaccine in the past ruin his credibility.
when have we tried to make a vaccine for the common cold? HIV is nothing like this disease. We are devoting more resources to this than anything ever before.
Lots of talk about vaccines. In my opinion, the most likely near-term POSITIVE outcome is not a vaccine but a set of treatment options that make getting infected with COVID-19 a far less dangerous outcome than not.
I’ll try and explain why from two perspectives - and welcome comments.
First – the vaccine perspective. Yes, the largest ever armada of scientists ever assembled are taking on COVID-19. And COVID-19 does seem to be well understood biologically. Both are positives. But three factors are still big negatives. First, the underlying vaccine science is still complex and non-trivial. Second is the need for long-term SAFETY data. One does not want to take a vaccine which turns out to show safety signals 12 months down the road. So perhaps the vaccine will only be “rationed” to the elderly or other at-risk populations? But who decides? Finally, perhaps most importantly is manufacturing capacity. Biologics are orders of magnitude more complex and expensive to manufacture than synthetic organic molecules. We don’t need any shortcuts to vaccine manufacturing!
Net-net we don’t yet know which scientific approach works if any, we can’t know the long-term safety implications, and it will be a herculean effort to be able to manufacture it economically at scale. None of these doom the possibility of a successful vaccine in 2021, but they do diminish the odds.
But all is far from lost even in a non-vaccine world. Why? Because of perspective #2.
We don’t necessarily need one! We’ve had flu vaccines every year and only a subset of the population take them. Why? Because getting the flu isn’t deadly for the most part. And that is what we need to get to with COVID-19. Even today, while some people keep trying to showcase how it’s “others” who get really sick/die (pick your favorite poison for the definition of others), the fact is that there is sufficient discordance in the data that the vast majority of people and organizations aren’t yet ready to take chances with it. No organization I am associated with is planning a full-scale back to normal operation anytime soon. But the therapeutic options are more easily solvable and incredible progress is being made. Between plasma, steroids, antibodies, small molecule anti-virals, better understanding of patient illness pathways, the medical community is and will continue to get a hold of this curse and reduce fatalities. Maybe even to cold-like levels! (Fingers firmly crossed). Who knows (no trustworthy evidence yet), but maybe the darn virus will also mutate to lower virulence like other viruses have done.
That is what I hold out more immediate hope for. Better therapeutic interventions and better treatments. I think both are possible and I keep waiting for such evidence. I would love a vaccine, but believe the former more likely.
I’ll try and explain why from two perspectives - and welcome comments.
First – the vaccine perspective. Yes, the largest ever armada of scientists ever assembled are taking on COVID-19. And COVID-19 does seem to be well understood biologically. Both are positives. But three factors are still big negatives. First, the underlying vaccine science is still complex and non-trivial. Second is the need for long-term SAFETY data. One does not want to take a vaccine which turns out to show safety signals 12 months down the road. So perhaps the vaccine will only be “rationed” to the elderly or other at-risk populations? But who decides? Finally, perhaps most importantly is manufacturing capacity. Biologics are orders of magnitude more complex and expensive to manufacture than synthetic organic molecules. We don’t need any shortcuts to vaccine manufacturing!
Net-net we don’t yet know which scientific approach works if any, we can’t know the long-term safety implications, and it will be a herculean effort to be able to manufacture it economically at scale. None of these doom the possibility of a successful vaccine in 2021, but they do diminish the odds.
But all is far from lost even in a non-vaccine world. Why? Because of perspective #2.
We don’t necessarily need one! We’ve had flu vaccines every year and only a subset of the population take them. Why? Because getting the flu isn’t deadly for the most part. And that is what we need to get to with COVID-19. Even today, while some people keep trying to showcase how it’s “others” who get really sick/die (pick your favorite poison for the definition of others), the fact is that there is sufficient discordance in the data that the vast majority of people and organizations aren’t yet ready to take chances with it. No organization I am associated with is planning a full-scale back to normal operation anytime soon. But the therapeutic options are more easily solvable and incredible progress is being made. Between plasma, steroids, antibodies, small molecule anti-virals, better understanding of patient illness pathways, the medical community is and will continue to get a hold of this curse and reduce fatalities. Maybe even to cold-like levels! (Fingers firmly crossed). Who knows (no trustworthy evidence yet), but maybe the darn virus will also mutate to lower virulence like other viruses have done.
That is what I hold out more immediate hope for. Better therapeutic interventions and better treatments. I think both are possible and I keep waiting for such evidence. I would love a vaccine, but believe the former more likely.
Maine doesn’t seem very visitor friendly. I’d look for alternatives unless you have a quick turnaround test setup.
Some info and a question at the end.
I just gave an hour presentation on vaccine development to our department (RU med school) yesterday - some might be interested.
As of June 16 the WHO lists 11 candidate vaccines in clinical trials, with another 128 at pre-clinical stages (i.e. testing in mice).
Only two of these trials are in the USA (Moderna and Inovio) a third is a USA/Sweden partnership (Novavax). 2 are in the UK (Oxford and Imperial College, London) and 1 is in Germany (BioNTech).
5 trials are taking place in China.
7 of these trials are using technology that has never successfully produced a human vaccine (mRNA, DNA, non-replicating viral vectors, adenovirus, protein subunits.
4 of the Chinese trials are going "old-school" using attenuated virus (like the flu vaccine). The trials are huge, seem to be well-controlled and include children (age 3 and up).
It is very likely that China will have the first vaccine and one that that can be quickly scaled up to many millions of doses.
My question - will Americans get vaccinated with a Chinese produced vaccine?
No reason for huge efforts to be made for a vaccine for the common cold, we have an annual vaccine for influenza (necessitated by its much faster mutation rate than CV2) that is moderately effective (not 100% due, again, to much faster mutation and multiple types of influenza), great progress is being made on a norovirus vaccine (plus it doesn't kill many people), and HIV is simply hugely different from every other virus and there are many reasons why a vaccine hasn't been developed yet (see the link rather than me typing a bunch). And there now is a vaccine for Ebola, which is very effective.
https://www.historyofvaccines.org/index.php/content/articles/development-hiv-vaccines
yea, bailed on Maine. Same deal with VT and NH. Even if not enforced, why worry that locals will give you a hard time based on your plates. Will you enjoy the vacation with that on your mind ?
Some side effect/collateral damage stuff from COVID-19...
https://www.einstein.yu.edu/news/23...iac-arrest-cases-and-deaths-in-new-york-city/
https://www.einstein.yu.edu/news/23...iac-arrest-cases-and-deaths-in-new-york-city/
Great post! I'd like to share this elsewhere if you don't mind (would like to give you credit for it, but not sure how to do that other than to link to this post - let me know, thanks). We've both been wondering (as have many others) why the US isn't at least pursuing one "old school" weakened/deactivated virus approach for a vaccine.
While I believe the Chinese lied about the outbreak early on, their science has been pretty good on viral transmission, impacts and treatments, to date, and assuming they clearly documented the safety of any vaccine they developed, I'd take it...if they share it. It's in their best interests to make a very safe/effective vaccine (and it would certainly "show up" the US if they can do so).
Arizona had a 14 day quarantine for NY/NJ/CT. We drove out and had no problems, but Arizona people are relaxed.
I wonder how fast China will be advancing now that they caught paying American based Chinese scientists for critical information.
Nice biz strategy China has going. Create a global pandemic, jack up the rates for PPE that is manufactured there all while developing the vaccine for the pandemic they created and propagated in the first place. Gotta love it.
Nice biz strategy China has going. Create a global pandemic, jack up the rates for PPE that is manufactured there all while developing the vaccine for the pandemic they created and propagated in the first place. Gotta love it.
The mayors of all the large cities in Texas wrote an appeal to the Governor to allow them to set local rules requiring masks. Lots of chatter from these cities that infection rates and hospitalization rates are getting out of control.
It was my doctors directive and he wrote a prescription specifically for it. Made no difference to me.
You're beyond delusional and have yet to add anything of value to this thread. The Chinese economy is dependent on everyone else's and people aren't buying nearly as much as they were, so they're being hammered too.
It would also be in their geopolitical interest to kick the US while it's down.
Quite honestly, I think China would have to make their vaccine formula "open source" for it to be widely accepted by western populations. It would likely have to be produced by US manufacturers either open source or under license and undergo FDA/CDC testing.
Your love affair with China is so odd. These are facts. The fact they trigger you so easily is so odd. I’m guessing it has to do with TDS or something. You should get that looked at.
Massive amounts of PPE are being manufactured in China and the prices have been jacked up. So odd you’d deny what everyone knows. I’m guessing you’ve been posting all the erroneous info you have in this thread all over the web. Get a grip man, you’re in the wilderness.
Hit the nail on the head with your comments around China. They are far along with several candidates and using proven technology.
No idea why Trump isn’t getting in line for their vaccines because they are the favorites right now.
California experiencing highest case numbers and increased hospitalizations.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243658917.html
The California Department of Public Health’s online dashboard for COVID-19 shows a total of 4,000 new lab-confirmed cases reported Wednesday, the highest single-day increase yet for the state. It follows Tuesday’s increase of 3,455, now the fourth-highest tally, as the state infection total is now over 161,000.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243658917.html
The California Department of Public Health’s online dashboard for COVID-19 shows a total of 4,000 new lab-confirmed cases reported Wednesday, the highest single-day increase yet for the state. It follows Tuesday’s increase of 3,455, now the fourth-highest tally, as the state infection total is now over 161,000.
Montana had a 14 day quarantine for anybody visiting in May. Fish for a weekend, but spent 2 weeks doing it. Whatever feels safe to them.
Article in today's WSJ about Sweden, where there are allegations where the very elderly were given palliative care rather than treatment. Had a chart with death rates for the total Swedish population:
30-39 .1625%
40-49 .466%
50-59 1.46%
60-69 5.50%
70-79 22.04%
80-89 34.73%
90+ 42%
30-39 .1625%
40-49 .466%
50-59 1.46%
60-69 5.50%
70-79 22.04%
80-89 34.73%
90+ 42%
I don't see anyone more qualified than him saying this. Look up his credentials.
Unfortunately we have many delusional clowns on this thread like Cali, T2K, BAC.
Best put them on Ignore and not waste your time.
Love affair? You clearly haven't read any of my posts on China. I've been very harsh on their behavior up through the Hubei lockdowns with regard to hiding the outbreak and providing clearly false (and very low) estimates on cases/deaths. However, their economy has been hammered by this outbreak, too, even if a few select industries might be doing ok. To think that China would "want" this pandemic is ludicrous. Having said that, though, they've clearly handled it way better than the US has wjhich is embarrassing, especially when they had very little warning, unlike us.
Please....you would not want to be inside that small apartment when the Chicom police or army come and lock it down from the outside in a communist dictatorship-style real quarantine.
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