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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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I absolutely guarantee you that warm soapy water is better for coronavirus deactivation and removal from produce than simply rinsing with water, just like it is for hands and any other object that could have surface contamination. That is irrefutable science. However, there is a small risk of gastrointestinal issues from residual soap, which isn't trivial, but for me it's less of a risk than the virus and my risk tolerance is very, very low right now. I do not know exactly how much better it is, though - nobody does - hopefully the difference is small, but I know it's not zero.
Sorry but I have read again today ...don’t wash with soap and water...multiple articles stating it’s not good no matter how well you rinse the soap off. Don’t take my word numbers just google it regarding covid19 and washing fruits and vegetables...
 
Respectfully disagree. I know soap can do that if not thoroughly rinsed off (which is why I said rinse very thoroughly), but I'd rather risk a little diarrhea than a little coronavirus, especially since we don't have any data on how long the virus can survive on specific fruits/vegetables and most people prefer eating them soon after buying them, which means there could be risk of touching a virus on the produce and then touching one's face and inhaling the virus. If one can wait 3 days (the longest documented time of "survival" of the virus in a controlled experiment, on plastic and stainless steel), then washing is very unlikely to be needed.

The micelle structure of soap with hydrophilic heads (water-loving) and hydrophoboic (water-hating) tails, causes the soap molecules to surround the lipid structure of the virus coat, pulling said coat apart and rupturing the protein of the virus, deactivating it. Soap has the same effect on many bacteria, which can also be an issue with produce, so I'll continue to wash with warm soapy water and rinse with copious amounts of warm water to solubilize the residual soap. Soap and water is also more effective than any hand sanitizer in destroying the viral lipid membrane coat. There are people who know more than some of the people who write things on blogs. Having said that, copious washing with warm water is probably enough to displace most of the surface associated viruses, but I'd rather be 100% sure.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/health/soap-coronavirus-handwashing-germs.html
Well it's not like that stuff was recommended by a couple nobodies writing a blog. One is Rutgers professor. It's not that soap isn't good for getting rid of viruses, it's the idea of soap and food that I'm going to eat.

Mind you all soaps aren't the same either, some are harsher than others. If a person was using soap for food, which I don't, suppose that person used antibacterial soap with triclosan in it as opposed to a milder soap. Triclosan just for regular hand washing isn't considered good and then you wash your food with it? Not a good idea IMO and many might not even realize it thinking the antibacterial component might be helpful.

You're a knowledgeable smart guy, of course you should do what you think is appropriate for yourself and your family. You don't even don't even consider it a pain in the rear lol it seems. Me I try my best and take the precautions where I think the risk/benefit is worthwhile which is probably more than most frankly. Then after that if it's my time it's my time what can I do. I'm not being wreckless but after a point if someone up there is calling me what can I do, sort of like those Final Destination movies...you can only run and hide so much lol.

The 2 scientists giving the recommendations not to use soap and food in that nj.com article. But like I said I've seen others say it's okay to use soap with food.

Donald Schaffner, a distinguished professor and extension specialist in food science with expertise in microbial risk assessment and hand washing at Rutgers

Dr. Claude Krummenacher, a virologist and assistant professor at Rowan University in Glassboro, said.
 
on the video good question on washing your clothes when you come back from somewhere...he says no, as a healthcare provider he does but average person no,

yes young people are going on ventilators, too
 
How does this jive with video of the doctor saying they are currently worried about having no ventilators..just asking about her observation on the front line and ny actually having the stockpile currently..rewatched the video and the hospital and the nyc health dept seem at odds
yes.. that's an obvious point for someone to bring up with Cuomo.. but no one has? Why not?
 
The more this goes on the more I think this is all about waiting till you catch it and hoping your one of those people who doesn't have a bad reaction.

Side note, how common is it for a virus to have such a wide spread of symptoms?
How would you get it if you don’t leave the house other than going for a walk and staying 6 feet apart?
 
yes.. that's an obvious point for someone to bring up with Cuomo.. but no one has? Why not?


Im thinking the doctor is letting her frustration, fears and what she actually sees on the frontline sort of cloud the judgment, the 5 ventillators were there even though she wasnt expecting him, and yes they will need to order more from the state or county or whoever provides them, I think a system is now in place. I think everything takes a few days to settle in..we see msm , governors and doctors screaming one day and by the next day they situations are resolved. I think a strong line of communication has to be fostered during this time. If you want something go through the chain of command rather than going to the msm to air grievances. I think each county and state are going to have alot of responsibility as they work with FEMA

As for Cuomo he had to finally admit they had him when questioned on it, why not say you had them in the first place and you needed more for the future...the way it was being covered was NYC is right now running out of ventilator and Trump is doing nothing about it. Its a minor point but its important that everyone come to the table with facts and that goes for Trump too who should be clear on what exactly he is doing and isnt doing, not speak in generalities.
 
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Ill take Birx's comments any day over #'s opinions.
#s would definitely have the advantage of not giving the POTUS verbal blowjobs when rationalizing some of his statements that fly in the face of scientific data. Guess that’s why #s shouldn’t be expecting a call from the White House anytime soon to add to the scientific discourse towards beating this thing. No disrespect to Birx who is qualified in her own right but she is aware of how the game is played when standing on the same podium with DT and having to be the “right hand” of the scientifically devoid VP who can’t be alone in a room with another woman whose not his wife. Yeah that guy was entrusted to head the US effort to combat this pandemic but I digress.

#s please keep the information and analysis flowing.

GO RU
 
Well it's not like that stuff was recommended by a couple nobodies writing a blog. One is Rutgers professor. It's not that soap isn't good for getting rid of viruses, it's the idea of soap and food that I'm going to eat.

Mind you all soaps aren't the same either, some are harsher than others. If a person was using soap for food, which I don't, suppose that person used antibacterial soap with triclosan in it as opposed to a milder soap. Triclosan just for regular hand washing isn't considered good and then you wash your food with it? Not a good idea IMO and many might not even realize it thinking the antibacterial component might be helpful.

You're a knowledgeable smart guy, of course you should do what you think is appropriate for yourself and your family. You don't even don't even consider it a pain in the rear lol it seems. Me I try my best and take the precautions where I think the risk/benefit is worthwhile which is probably more than most frankly. Then after that if it's my time it's my time what can I do. I'm not being wreckless but after a point if someone up there is calling me what can I do, sort of like those Final Destination movies...you can only run and hide so much lol.

The 2 scientists giving the recommendations not to use soap and food in that nj.com article. But like I said I've seen others say it's okay to use soap with food.

Donald Schaffner, a distinguished professor and extension specialist in food science with expertise in microbial risk assessment and hand washing at Rutgers

Dr. Claude Krummenacher, a virologist and assistant professor at Rowan University in Glassboro, said.
wait..Dawn has Triclosan.. are you suggesting USE Dawn in some form to wash hands or avoid using Dawn.. I understand not using it to clean edibles.. i have been using it highly diluted in a foamer dispenser... perhaps 10:1 with water and a little alcohol
 
wait..Dawn has Triclosan.. are you suggesting USE Dawn in some form to wash hands or avoid using Dawn.. I understand not using it to clean edibles.. i have been using it highly diluted in a foamer dispenser... perhaps 10:1 with water and a little alcohol
I thought no soap is allowed to have triclosan anymore?
 
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#s would definitely have the advantage of not giving the POTUS verbal blowjobs when rationalizing some of his statements that fly in the face of scientific data. Guess that’s why #s shouldn’t be expecting a call from the White House anytime soon to add to the scientific discourse towards beating this thing. No disrespect to Birx who is qualified in her own right but she is aware of how the game is played when standing on the same podium with DT and having to be the “right hand” of the scientifically devoid VP who can’t be alone in a room with another woman whose not his wife. Yeah that guy was entrusted to head the US effort to combat this pandemic but I digress.

#s please keep the information and analysis flowing.

GO RU
Thanks. Pretty sure my scientific credentials on the deactivation and solubilization of lipids and proteins would trump Birx's, given my 30+ years experience dealing with cleaning and decontaminating equipment and rooms from biological and chemical species. I've literally "written the book" on our approaches to these areas at work. She'd crush me on virology, vaccines and medical knowledge, but this is not about that. At this point, I think we should let this argument die, as it's a very minor point in a much larger picture and I think this thread should focus on those things.

So, in the spirit of that, I just saw some folks on CNN talking about the "new 15-min antibody tests." I knew they were talking about them, but had no idea that the FDA decided to let them become available without formal approval on an emergency use basis. These are finger-prick blood tests to see if one has the antibodies to the virus and the test is cheap and takes 15 min at a doctor's office or testing lab (the UK is poised to approve an at home version).

It's expected that if one has the antibodies that one is very likely now immune to getting the virus (it means one already had it), unless perhaps it's early in the viral infection - they're doing studies right now on how long it takes during the infection to produce enough antibodies to test positive and overcome the virus, since the vast majority of infections (80-85%) resolve with little patient impact. The first folks who will likely get tested are health care workers and other essential and public-facing workers - getting a positive antibody test would likely mean they could work with infected people with little worry - and eventually other people might be able to do the same. These folks may also be candidates for the antibody-plasma treatment study starting at Mt. Sinai now.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/202...s-health-coronavirus-immune-test-insight.html

https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/27/t...screen-for-coronavirus-but-there-are-caveats/
 
People shouldn't get too excited yet, but this could be at least a short term gamechanger until other treatments and/or vaccines come along. NY now has FDA permission to permit emergency use of blood plasma rich in antibodies to the virus, collected from recovered patients, in current coronavirus patients in need, via infusion.

This kind of therapy is low tech but has been shown to work in the past and should work here, in theory. It's not clear to me how many patients can be treated with this approach (not sure what level of antibodies would be needed for either treatment or prevention), but I think it might be all seriously ill patients (since there are far more people who get infected and recover than are seriously ill).

In theory, it could also be used as a preventative for health care workers and other at-risk people, until more scalable antibody treatments, like the Regeneron approach I've posted about before (where antibodies are developed from mouse models, tested and successful ones manufactured in cell bioreactors for injection in patients to provide virus protection) and/or a vaccine are available...or if one of the ongoing trials with repurposed old drugs works.

How blood from coronavirus survivors might save lives
New York City researchers hope antibody-rich plasma can keep people out of intensive care.

"On 23 March, New York governor Andrew Cuomo announced the plan to use convalescent plasma to aid the response in the state, which has more than 25,000 infections, with 210 deaths. “We think it shows promise,” he said. Thanks to the researchers’ efforts, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today announced that it will permit the emergency use of plasma for patients in need. As early as next week, at least two hospitals in New York City — Mount Sinai and Albert Einstein College of Medicine — hope to start using coronavirus-survivor plasma to treat people with the disease, Joyner says.

After this first rollout, researchers hope the use will be extended to people at a high risk of developing COVID-19, such as nurses and physicians. For them, it could prevent illness so that they can remain in the hospital workforce, which can’t afford depletion.

The US tests of convalescent plasma aren’t the first. Since early February, researchers in China — where the coronavirus emerged late last year — have launched several studies using the plasma. Researchers have yet to report on the status and results of these studies. But Liang Yu, an infectious-disease specialist at Zhejiang University School of Medicine in China, told Nature that in one preliminary study, doctors treated 13 people who were critically ill with COVID-19 with convalescent plasma. Within several days, he says the virus no longer seemed to be circulating in the patients, indicating that antibodies had fought it off. But he says that their conditions continued to deteriorate, suggesting that the disease might have been too far along for this therapy to be effective. Most had been sick for more than two weeks.

In one of three proposed US trials, Liise-anne Pirofski, an infectious-disease specialist at Albert Einstein College of Medicine, says researchers plan to infuse patients at an early stage of the disease and see how often they advance to critical care. Another trial would enroll severe cases. The third would explore plasma’s use as a preventative measure for people in close contact with those confirmed to have COVID-19, and would evaluate how often such people fall ill after an infusion compared with others who were similarly exposed but not treated. These outcomes are measurable within a month, she says. “Efficacy data could be obtained very, very quickly.”

And academic hospitals across the United States are now planning to launch a placebo-controlled clinical trial to collect hard evidence on how well the treatment works. The world will be watching because, unlike drugs, blood from survivors is relatively cheap and available to any country hit hard by an outbreak.


https://www.nature.com/articles/d41...6tll_d4rjI0v9tRBTtsMcAKMomkbl1Gb6zJ9DoaQaX6Ag

Update: Mt. Sinai and Albert Einstein College are conducting the groundbreaking US trial of the plasma-antibody treatment known as plasmapheresis for virus-infected patients detailed above, starting essentially now and are looking for people with antibodies willing to donate their serum/antibodies for these treatments of others. If anyone out there knows they have had the virus and recovered, you should absolutely consider volunteering for this trial, as you'll likely be saving lives. See the link below for more info on the trial and how to volunteer. This could be a gamechanger, but we need fast enrollment and data. Thanks.

https://inside.mountsinai.org/blog/...11.702072823.1585406065-1204514847.1585406065
 
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yes.. that's an obvious point for someone to bring up with Cuomo.. but no one has? Why not?
Read my post from earlier today - explains the whole ventilator saga. Cuomo never said they were out of them, just that they will likely run out of them at the apex if they don't get more and he always had said some were in storage until needed.
 
wait..Dawn has Triclosan.. are you suggesting USE Dawn in some form to wash hands or avoid using Dawn.. I understand not using it to clean edibles.. i have been using it highly diluted in a foamer dispenser... perhaps 10:1 with water and a little alcohol
Looks like Triclosan was banned in 2016 for soap products but can still be in other products which aren't regulated by the FDA. I think Colgate had it in their toothpaste awhile back but I think they've since removed it because of the stuff about Triclosan. So that's a good thing, I'm not sure how your Dawn would still have it then.

I used to use antibacterial products long ago thinking it's a good thing but then all that news and stuff came out about it and I stopped. Just using regular soap and water is fine for me now. I actually avoid products used on or in my body that say antibacterial now. Even if they've banned Triclosan, what chemical have the replaced it with and how safe do we know that is for regular use until they've studied it and it's likely harsher IMO. So I stick with regular soap and water for myself and try to avoid what in my mind are considered harsher products. Again I'm a somewhat germphobe so you'd think "anitibacterial" for soaps and things like that would appeal to me but nope lol.

For cleaning products like bathroom, floor etc.. I expect it to be harsh but for things I use on myself (exception hand sanitizer if I’m out) I'll avoid what I consider might be harsher chemicals and certainly would avoid it with food. I wonder how many people think in those terms though if they want to use soap on their food will they account about the harshness of it. If it's really that important to clean food with something beyond water I'd probably try vinegar or lemon juice or baking soda/salt and things like that before soap. Just my worthless 2 cents of how I think, I'm not a scientist or smart guy like #s.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/adult-health/expert-answers/triclosan/faq-20057861

https://www.webmd.com/beauty/news/20180705/banned-from-soap-triclosan-in-toothpaste

https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consu...soap-you-can-skip-it-use-plain-soap-and-water
 
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Japan says "What Carona?"


Coronavirus: How Japan keeps COVID-19 under control

Masks 'a part of our everyday lives'

Japanese greeting etiquette — a bow instead of a handshake or a kiss on the cheek — has also played a part in slowing the outbreak, as has basic hygiene education taught from an early age.

"Washing our hands, gargling with a disinfectant solution and wearing masks are part of our everyday lives. We don't need coronavirus to teach us that," said a Japanese mother of two. As a result, it was easy for society to switch to anti-infection mode in February when the virus first began to spread. Shops and businesses set up hand sanitizers at the entrance, and it became a civic duty to wear a face mask.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-how-japan-keeps-covid-19-under-control/a-52907069
 
Japan says "What Carona?"


Coronavirus: How Japan keeps COVID-19 under control

Masks 'a part of our everyday lives'

Japanese greeting etiquette — a bow instead of a handshake or a kiss on the cheek — has also played a part in slowing the outbreak, as has basic hygiene education taught from an early age.

"Washing our hands, gargling with a disinfectant solution and wearing masks are part of our everyday lives. We don't need coronavirus to teach us that," said a Japanese mother of two. As a result, it was easy for society to switch to anti-infection mode in February when the virus first began to spread. Shops and businesses set up hand sanitizers at the entrance, and it became a civic duty to wear a face mask.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-how-japan-keeps-covid-19-under-control/a-52907069
@RU848789 has said this and I agree with him on this point, it's about keeping germs in as much if not moreso than keeping germs out. If everyone had access to masks and kept their germs to themselves then there's less spread. It would help reduce asymptomatic spread. It's too bad there aren't enough and it's not part of our culture as well.


From your article:

The country typically goes through 5.5 billion face masks every year — 43 per person. Sales of face masks skyrocketed as the virus took hold. Masks have been rationed, and people stand patiently in line waiting for shops to open. Other shops sell strips of fabric and coffee filters, along with instructions for DIY versions.

The Japanese appear to have understood that a person can be infected without showing symptoms, said Michael Paumen, a German business manager who has lived in Japan for many years: "You put the mask on to protect others, so you yourself don't transmit viruses."

The widespread use of face masks appears to have slowed down the spread of not just COVID-19, as indicated by the sharp drop in the number of flu patients in the seven weeks since the outbreak of the coronavirus. A recent study by five Western physicians, including Fabian Svara from the Caesar research group in Bonn and Matthias Samwald from the Medical University in Vienna, found that masks "decrease the transmission of droplets or aerosols containing viral particles by mask wearers."

Apart from social distancing and hand-washing, the experts concluded that face masks could play an important role in slowing down the spread of the virus, pointing out the low infection rates in Japan.
 
Another model this time from University of Washington modeling of what might happen in the next few months. This is the average case they have others scenarios for best case and worst case.

From the article:

New Jersey is likely just two weeks away from the worst of the coronavirus, according to a new analysis by researchers at the University of Washington.

In the newest projections, 189 people would die on the worst days of the outbreak and about 4,100 people would die in New Jersey over the next four months. More than 81,000 would die across the United States.

All of this assumes New Jersey continues strict social distancing measures.

The analysis was run by researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, a research center that focuses on the health of populations. They forecast both the number of people who might die in the pandemic and the possible shortage of hospital resources such as intensive care beds and invasive ventilators that help patients breathe. It provided a wide range for all of its modeling, and all of the findings can be found on the institute’s website.

The numbers are lower than other recent analyses, and the researchers say a number of other models begin with the assumption that 25% to 70% of the population will eventually become infected, leading to potentially millions of deaths in the U.S. However, they say those models “with assumptions of random mixing can overestimate health service need by not taking into account behavioral change and government-mandated action.”

“Other models may use other approaches, such as assuming a population where everyone was equally likely to interact with everyone else, and model different scenarios such as the absence of, or different levels of, social distancing,” their study’s FAQ says. “These models are useful for motivating action to prevent such worst-case scenarios, while our model is designed to specifically address the planning needs of hospital administrators and local governments.”

The institute predicts that New Jersey hospitals’ peak resource needs will come on April 11, when the state will see a hospital bed shortage of 9,829 beds. On that day, it’s estimated there will be a need for 2,708 ICU beds with only 465 available statewide.

As for the country as a whole, the institute expects resource needs for the U.S. to peak on April 14, with a national hospital bed shortage of 49,292 and ICU bed shortage of 14,601.

The ability to predict the epidemic in the U.S. has been hampered by multiple factors, including the lack of adequate testing, the unevenness with which social distancing edicts have been issued by state governments, and the lack of previous knowledge of how COVID-19 spreads in large human populations.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...ld-kill-4000-in-nj-new-analysis-predicts.html
 
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I have copied and posting what I just put on the CE board in reference to donning masks. It was a response to someone linking a directive from the CDC (I believe) suggesting only those exhibiting symptoms wear masks:

Semi-sound advice. Anyone showing symptoms of any kind of bacterial or viral infection is easier to identify due to cough, stuffy nose, fever, etc. Those people should be avoiding others and using some type of barrier to prevent further spreading of what they harbor (mask, coughing/sneezing into elbow, distancing, etc). This should be every day, practical, common sense for the entire world...24 hours a day...7 days a week...year round. Unfortunately and up until this coronavirus hit, a good portion of the population did not practice these social graces...and some amazingly still don't! The problem with the above statements lies in the fact that during the initial phases of this coronavirus where people are asymptomatic (and probably have no clue they are Covid-19 positive), the viral load and shedding (i.e., the amount of virus present and able to be excreted through coughing, sneezing, etc.) continues to grow. This excerpt is from a very limited study but it mimics what the medical community knows: "researchers found very high levels of virus emitted from the throat of patients from the earliest point in their illness —when people are generally still going about their daily routines. Viral shedding dropped after day 5." A good portion of those infected dont even exhibit symptoms by day 5, thus unknowingly have the potential to infect scores of other people. Realizing this, people of Wuhan, South Korea, etc. have done better controlling the virus and have reportedly trended downward. The principle of blocking something from reaching others is basic and primal. Masks work. It's also the reason why Debbie Birx's insistence that masks are not needed make her look foolish. Other experts have been calling her out on this publically recently, and it was grossly evident by many that her logic was flawed when she uttered it weeks ago. I get that masks are needed for healthcare workers, but preventing the spread will lead to less people infected (and most importantly it would curb exponential growth), reduce admissions to hospitals, and result in less masks used in healthcare setting. Probably an overall, positive, net effect in favor of masks available for healthcare workers.
 
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How would you get it if you don’t leave the house other than going for a walk and staying 6 feet apart?

We'll... assuming you will procure a resupply of necessities at some point, there has to be a transfer of items, from Point A ( the source) to Point B (you), and those items could carry the virus and present an exposure. That 6-foot recommendation is a minimum, too. More is better.
 
#s would definitely have the advantage of not giving the POTUS verbal blowjobs when rationalizing some of his statements that fly in the face of scientific data. Guess that’s why #s shouldn’t be expecting a call from the White House anytime soon to add to the scientific discourse towards beating this thing. No disrespect to Birx who is qualified in her own right but she is aware of how the game is played when standing on the same podium with DT and having to be the “right hand” of the scientifically devoid VP who can’t be alone in a room with another woman whose not his wife. Yeah that guy was entrusted to head the US effort to combat this pandemic but I digress.

#s please keep the information and analysis flowing.

GO RU
So now Birx is a party to lies and parrots Trump... I doubt it... both Fauci and Birx understand and have attempted to reassure the general public while maintaining the fact that covid19 can kill SOME of the population... TDS has polluted your ability to distinguish between what some are trying to do while on camera... if you believe Trump brought this on then the past 4 administrations too should be charged as guilty... How about Cuomo who lied about the ventilators and much of the supply shortages?...those who hate Trump will always hate ...never got over Hilldabeast ‘s loss in 2016.
 
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Everybody is clamoring for a vaccine but what about those anti vaxers are they going to get this one or not? Imagine how many flu deaths occur yearly... how many millions in the US become infected even with a vaccine... If you had family loved one who was going to possibly die from covid19 and the only drugs were the 2 being most discussed Hydroxychloroquine and Zithromicin would you ok their use ? The latest discussions by some politicians is they are not safe... not enough information...and don’t want them used... now that is a problem we all should aware of...

Some very valid points. I will disclose, I am one of those anti vaxers you refer to. However, I am now required to receive the annual influenza vaccine or the facility policy is I need to wear a mask on the property to prevent the spread of influenza. Hmmm...wearing a mask. A novel idea instituted by a major medical facility to reduce the risk of infecting others. Why didnt Birx think of that? Sorry to digress. Prior to hospital mandated, influenza vaccinations, I always opted to decline the yearly shot. Why? I avoided sick people (and most people in general during the height of cold/flu season), protected myself in the midst of those sick, washed my hands more often than most could ever imagine, didnt touch my mucous membranes unless with freshly washed hands, and removed myself from infecting others if I became ill. All the things people should absolutely do now and always should do in the future. In addition, my physical characteristics, habits and diet are very good. Practicing the basics has resulted in most years with NOT contracting the common cold, but occasionally one cold/year. And one case of influenza. I would guess this spans the course of 25 years or so. Based on all that info, I concluded I was low risk to get the flu and opted out until required to get it. Covid-19 is a different beast. Not only for my health only, but for my family, friends, neighbors and strangers. The rate of transmission is impressive and in a percentage of the population, the effects are destructive. If this comes back again and again, every year, either a vaccine will need to be mandatory, there will need to be a treatment or cure once contracted, and/or the country goes through periodic lockdowns, high unemployment rates, business failing, and economic downturn. There's my two pennies.
 
An update on the worldwide case fatality rate. The Hopkins tracking map this morning shows 684,652 cases reported worldwide with 32,113 fatalities, for a case fatality rate of approximately 4.7%. If you exclude data from Italy (which seems to be an outlier, with a fatality rate of over 10%) and exclude data from China (where the numbers are suspect), you end up with a worldwide case fatality rate of 3.7%.

There are a couple of caveat's around this data. First, fatalities are a lagging indicator. So you would expect the number of fatalities to increase as a portion of those currently sick pass away. This suggests that the global fatality rate will increase. Second, the fatality rate is based on the total number of cases, which is probably significantly under-reported since testing worldwide is limited, and misses large numbers of infected people with mild or no symptoms. This suggests that the global fatality rate is actually lower.

Nonetheless, a current fatality rate of 3.7% is staggering. It indicates that 1 out of every 27 people with a confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19 will not survive. We really need to hope that one of the potential treatments is effective.
 
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The US currently has a mortality rate of 1.5%. Second only to S.Korea of heavily infected nations. And that number will go down as more and more are tested.
 
Read my post from earlier today - explains the whole ventilator saga. Cuomo never said they were out of them, just that they will likely run out of them at the apex if they don't get more and he always had said some were in storage until needed.
Whoah a moment there... I listened to both Murphy and Cuomo ....Thought Murphy has done a really good job attempting not to get too caught up in the extra drama... Andrew is like his father likes the camera and the audience... for the first several weeks he remained on point but as this escalated he has gone a bit off the track and he too got caught maybe stretching the truths ... those media outlets who call out the President as a liar need to do the same Governor Cuomo...he most definitely at least intimated an outage and I have plenty of tv hours being retired to verify... let us just say they all need to be honest and forthcoming with the public...and perhaps a little tougher on those who refuse to listen...slow the spread and it helps us all ...
 
The US currently has a mortality rate of 1.5%. Second only to S.Korea of heavily infected nations. And that number will go down as more and more are tested.
Your point is correct, but it is offset by his point that mortality rate is a lagging indicator
 
The US currently has a mortality rate of 1.5%. Second only to S.Korea of heavily infected nations. And that number will go down as more and more are tested.
Yes it should ... here is the other thing ... we actually need ALL states to turn in numbers for those known to have recovered that is just as important.
 
Do not know if this was posted but this is a must watch. Dr. David Price who works at Weill Cornell Hospital in NYC. Very balanced and concise and alleviates some fears

Hands to your face...hands to your face..hands to your face

Become a Hand Nazi..walk with purell.

Mostly from sustained contact with someone with CoVid

Always know where hands are

Does recommend wearing a mask because you won't touch your face

Do not need a medical mask. N95 masks are for hospitals

Distance yourself in the store

some may think he is downplaying the aerosol risk of catching the virus, but this is a doctor, he is on the frontlines

I have watched this video many times, very interesting, I was just getting ready to show it to my family, when
I decided to go on line here for awhile instead, and noticed you already mentioned it.
He actually stated it was not airborn, only hands to mouth 99.9% but wearing a mask would help keep your hands off
your face. I liked the video except the part where he started to cry, that was weird.
 
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Whoah a moment there... I listened to both Murphy and Cuomo ....Thought Murphy has done a really good job attempting not to get too caught up in the extra drama... Andrew is like his father likes the camera and the audience... for the first several weeks he remained on point but as this escalated he has gone a bit off the track and he too got caught maybe stretching the truths ... those media outlets who call out the President as a liar need to do the same Governor Cuomo...he most definitely at least intimated an outage and I have plenty of tv hours being retired to verify... let us just say they all need to be honest and forthcoming with the public...and perhaps a little tougher on those who refuse to listen...slow the spread and it helps us all ...
Given that Cuomo knows that he is in competition for those ventilators, I think he knew he had to "turn on the charm" if you will.
And I don't think you can critique his approach too much given he is, as he says (paraphrasing a bit) "trying to get out ahead of this thing".
 
Read my post from earlier today - explains the whole ventilator saga. Cuomo never said they were out of them, just that they will likely run out of them at the apex if they don't get more and he always had said some were in storage until needed.
That is understood in my post. I know what Cuomo said and what he meant.

But that answer was not questioned in any way. For example: if there are hospitals in NY State that desperately need those ventilators NOW.. what are they doing in a warehouse NOW, waiting for "the peak"?

That is where real journalists should be probing Cuomo's statement. Cuomo is complaining and complaining about not having respirators and he has a bunch in a warehouse. He did not complain.. "Hey, the peak need for respirators is not here yet, we need to stockpile more and more of them".. you see? He was using the imagery of patients NOW needing respirators and yet has a warehouse full of them.

The question that needs to be asked now is.. what hospitals in NY City and NY State need respirators right now and why don't they have them? If there are no hospitals in desperate need now, then, your explanation about stockpiling and distribution makes sense.. but why ASSUME Cuomo was telling the truth?
 
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I think it is going to take awhile for Americans to come to grip with the idea that we will need to wear a mask every time we have a cold.
 
Some very valid points. I will disclose, I am one of those anti vaxers you refer to. However, I am now required to receive the annual influenza vaccine or the facility policy is I need to wear a mask on the property to prevent the spread of influenza. Hmmm...wearing a mask. A novel idea instituted by a major medical facility to reduce the risk of infecting others. Why didnt Birx think of that? Sorry to digress. Prior to hospital mandated, influenza vaccinations, I always opted to decline the yearly shot. Why? I avoided sick people (and most people in general during the height of cold/flu season), protected myself in the midst of those sick, washed my hands more often than most could ever imagine, didnt touch my mucous membranes unless with freshly washed hands, and removed myself from infecting others if I became ill. All the things people should absolutely do now and always should do in the future. In addition, my physical characteristics, habits and diet are very good. Practicing the basics has resulted in most years with NOT contracting the common cold, but occasionally one cold/year. And one case of influenza. I would guess this spans the course of 25 years or so. Based on all that info, I concluded I was low risk to get the flu and opted out until required to get it. Covid-19 is a different beast. Not only for my health only, but for my family, friends, neighbors and strangers. The rate of transmission is impressive and in a percentage of the population, the effects are destructive. If this comes back again and again, every year, either a vaccine will need to be mandatory, there will need to be a treatment or cure once contracted, and/or the country goes through periodic lockdowns, high unemployment rates, business failing, and economic downturn. There's my two pennies.
Here’s a friendly wager...when a vaccine is found and it will hopefully by next summer...the anti vax groups will have 2nd thoughts... if it is so dangerous your risk of not being vaccinated would far out way the threat of the vaccine causing your death... having something that could immunize the population is the great equalizer... in life some things are a crap shoot as the saying goes... My concern is this season’s flu vaccine... they better be working on that all the time...stay well and good luck ... now to hope we get Cliff O.
 
The US currently has a mortality rate of 1.5%. Second only to S.Korea of heavily infected nations. And that number will go down as more and more are tested.
Wrong, at least for now. The US rate was 1.2% early on and is now up to 1.8% and will continue to rise, as deaths lag cases, since deaths take 2-4 weeks from a positive test; yes more positive tests will tend to decrease the mortality rate, but not as fast as the increasing death rate will cause it to rise, at least for awhile. South Korea's went from 0.5% to its current 1.6% over several weeks for this same reason and given how much testing per capita they've done it's quite possible their mortality rate is very close to the "true" rate. I actually thought the Diamond Princess rate of about 1.3% was closer to the "true" rate, but we'll see on that...
 
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Japan says "What Carona?"


Coronavirus: How Japan keeps COVID-19 under control

Masks 'a part of our everyday lives'

Japanese greeting etiquette — a bow instead of a handshake or a kiss on the cheek — has also played a part in slowing the outbreak, as has basic hygiene education taught from an early age.

"Washing our hands, gargling with a disinfectant solution and wearing masks are part of our everyday lives. We don't need coronavirus to teach us that," said a Japanese mother of two. As a result, it was easy for society to switch to anti-infection mode in February when the virus first began to spread. Shops and businesses set up hand sanitizers at the entrance, and it became a civic duty to wear a face mask.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-how-japan-keeps-covid-19-under-control/a-52907069

@RU848789 has said this and I agree with him on this point, it's about keeping germs in as much if not moreso than keeping germs out. If everyone had access to masks and kept their germs to themselves then there's less spread. It would help reduce asymptomatic spread. It's too bad there aren't enough and it's not part of our culture as well.


From your article:

The country typically goes through 5.5 billion face masks every year — 43 per person. Sales of face masks skyrocketed as the virus took hold. Masks have been rationed, and people stand patiently in line waiting for shops to open. Other shops sell strips of fabric and coffee filters, along with instructions for DIY versions.

The Japanese appear to have understood that a person can be infected without showing symptoms, said Michael Paumen, a German business manager who has lived in Japan for many years: "You put the mask on to protect others, so you yourself don't transmit viruses."

The widespread use of face masks appears to have slowed down the spread of not just COVID-19, as indicated by the sharp drop in the number of flu patients in the seven weeks since the outbreak of the coronavirus. A recent study by five Western physicians, including Fabian Svara from the Caesar research group in Bonn and Matthias Samwald from the Medical University in Vienna, found that masks "decrease the transmission of droplets or aerosols containing viral particles by mask wearers."

Apart from social distancing and hand-washing, the experts concluded that face masks could play an important role in slowing down the spread of the virus, pointing out the low infection rates in Japan.

I have copied and posting what I just put on the CE board in reference to donning masks. It was a response to someone linking a directive from the CDC (I believe) suggesting only those exhibiting symptoms wear masks:

Semi-sound advice. Anyone showing symptoms of any kind of bacterial or viral infection is easier to identify due to cough, stuffy nose, fever, etc. Those people should be avoiding others and using some type of barrier to prevent further spreading of what they harbor (mask, coughing/sneezing into elbow, distancing, etc). This should be every day, practical, common sense for the entire world...24 hours a day...7 days a week...year round. Unfortunately and up until this coronavirus hit, a good portion of the population did not practice these social graces...and some amazingly still don't! The problem with the above statements lies in the fact that during the initial phases of this coronavirus where people are asymptomatic (and probably have no clue they are Covid-19 positive), the viral load and shedding (i.e., the amount of virus present and able to be excreted through coughing, sneezing, etc.) continues to grow. This excerpt is from a very limited study but it mimics what the medical community knows: "researchers found very high levels of virus emitted from the throat of patients from the earliest point in their illness —when people are generally still going about their daily routines. Viral shedding dropped after day 5." A good portion of those infected dont even exhibit symptoms by day 5, thus unknowingly have the potential to infect scores of other people. Realizing this, people of Wuhan, South Korea, etc. have done better controlling the virus and have reportedly trended downward. The principle of blocking something from reaching others is basic and primal. Masks work. It's also the reason why Debbie Birx's insistence that masks are not needed make her look foolish. Other experts have been calling her out on this publically recently, and it was grossly evident by many that her logic was flawed when she uttered it weeks ago. I get that masks are needed for healthcare workers, but preventing the spread will lead to less people infected (and most importantly it would curb exponential growth), reduce admissions to hospitals, and result in less masks used in healthcare setting. Probably an overall, positive, net effect in favor of masks available for healthcare workers.

Great to see people getting it about masks "keeping the germs in" and slowing the transmission rate. We need the Federal and State Governments to start championing this approach.
 
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https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening/

Interesting report issued today the American Enterprise Institute which lays out a road map to reopening the world. 4 clear phases, of which we are still in the early stages of phase 1. Led by Scott Gottleib, a former head of the FDA I believe. Many of the points mentioned are things already discussed in detail in this thread. No timeline provided, but very clear direction on what we need to do and achieve during each phase in order to move onto the next one. Long, but extremely informative and worth reading.
 
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Some very valid points. I will disclose, I am one of those anti vaxers you refer to. However, I am now required to receive the annual influenza vaccine or the facility policy is I need to wear a mask on the property to prevent the spread of influenza. Hmmm...wearing a mask. A novel idea instituted by a major medical facility to reduce the risk of infecting others. Why didnt Birx think of that? Sorry to digress. Prior to hospital mandated, influenza vaccinations, I always opted to decline the yearly shot. Why? I avoided sick people (and most people in general during the height of cold/flu season), protected myself in the midst of those sick, washed my hands more often than most could ever imagine, didnt touch my mucous membranes unless with freshly washed hands, and removed myself from infecting others if I became ill. All the things people should absolutely do now and always should do in the future. In addition, my physical characteristics, habits and diet are very good. Practicing the basics has resulted in most years with NOT contracting the common cold, but occasionally one cold/year. And one case of influenza. I would guess this spans the course of 25 years or so. Based on all that info, I concluded I was low risk to get the flu and opted out until required to get it. Covid-19 is a different beast. Not only for my health only, but for my family, friends, neighbors and strangers. The rate of transmission is impressive and in a percentage of the population, the effects are destructive. If this comes back again and again, every year, either a vaccine will need to be mandatory, there will need to be a treatment or cure once contracted, and/or the country goes through periodic lockdowns, high unemployment rates, business failing, and economic downturn. There's my two pennies.
I assume you've only been against the moderately effective flu vaccine, correct? That's understandable given your practices. The term "anti-vaxers" typically refers to the lunatics who are against all vaccines (the Jenny McCarthy/Dr. Whitehead-fabricated-vaccines-cause-autism crowd) and it would surprise (stun really) me if you were against all vaccines.
 
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Great to see people getting it about masks "keeping the germs in" and slowing the transmission rate. We need the Federal and State Governments to start championing this approach.

From my travels around I see people are wearing masks a lot now. I think people will be wearing them even if it doesn't become official advice. NY Times opinion piece highlighted that agencies lost people when they told them that masks work for pros but not for them. Not just that the pros need the masks more , but that they don't even work. Made no sense.


Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired

To help manage the shortage, the authorities sent a message that made them untrustworthy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html
 
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Read my post from earlier today - explains the whole ventilator saga. Cuomo never said they were out of them, just that they will likely run out of them at the apex if they don't get more and he always had said some were in storage until needed.

It's not a difficult concept...are people being willfully obtuse here?
 
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