Another model this time from University of Washington modeling of what might happen in the next few months. This is the average case they have others scenarios for best case and worst case.
From the article:
New Jersey is likely just two weeks away from the worst of the
coronavirus, according to a new analysis by researchers at the University of Washington.
In the newest projections, 189 people would die on the worst days of the outbreak and about 4,100 people would die in New Jersey over the next four months. More than 81,000 would die across the United States.
All of this assumes New Jersey continues strict
social distancing measures.
The analysis was run by researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, a research center that focuses on the health of populations. They forecast both the number of people who might die in the pandemic and the possible shortage of hospital resources such as intensive care beds and invasive ventilators that help patients breathe. It provided a wide range for all of its modeling, and all of the findings can be found on the
institute’s website.
The numbers are lower than other recent analyses, and the researchers say a number of other models begin with the assumption that 25% to 70% of the population will eventually become infected, leading to potentially millions of deaths in the U.S. However, they say those models “with assumptions of random mixing can overestimate health service need by not taking into account behavioral change and government-mandated action.”
“Other models may use other approaches, such as assuming a population where everyone was equally likely to interact with everyone else, and model different scenarios such as the absence of, or different levels of, social distancing,” their study’s FAQ says. “These models are useful for motivating action to prevent such worst-case scenarios, while our model is designed to specifically address the planning needs of hospital administrators and local governments.”
The institute predicts that New Jersey hospitals’ peak resource needs will come on April 11, when the state will see a hospital bed shortage of 9,829 beds. On that day, it’s estimated there will be a need for 2,708 ICU beds with only 465 available statewide.
As for the country as a whole, the institute expects resource needs for the U.S. to peak on April 14, with a national hospital bed shortage of 49,292 and ICU bed shortage of 14,601.
The ability to predict the epidemic in the U.S. has been hampered by multiple factors, including the lack of adequate testing, the unevenness with which social distancing edicts have been issued by state governments, and the lack of previous knowledge of how COVID-19 spreads in large human populations.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...ld-kill-4000-in-nj-new-analysis-predicts.html