COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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Hoping that this trial/therapy works. This man is definitely one of the good guys and his wonderful family needs him to turn a corner and pull through.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...ritically-ill-coronavirus-patient/ar-BB12uvYe
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...ritically-ill-coronavirus-patient/ar-BB12uvYe
seems odd that "Holy Name" was where this was done. iirc, the Catholics are against using stem cells on the principal that its a slippery slope to creating life just to harvest stem cells.
UMRU disagreed with my post and I take his feedback honestly. I get it. I was not suggesting it would work.. I was saying it might work. If whole populations safely take the antimalarials in malarial regions.. maybe if early research shows ANY prophylactic results from using it we should just do it. The experts would have to figure it out.. but it is a possibility at this point.. people die from flu vaccines.. we still do it.
My focus has nothing to do with media response. I am speaking of the process our leaders need to follow before lifting shelter-in-place, etc.
The Catholic church is not against all forms of stem cell research. The Church does not approve of emryonic stem cell research. This trial involves stem cells from a placenta.
Summary of key US/NY/NJ data through 4/8 and some comments from Cuomo’s 4/9 presser; several graphics are below.
- The Earth hit 1.6MM positive cases on 4/8 with 403K cases in the US, 160K in NY and 51K in NJ
- Both NY and NJ have reached the “peak plateau” in new cases, with some decline even looking like it’s occurring; the US appears to have reached a peak plateau also (see graphics)
- NY now has done about 20,000 tests per 1MM in population, which is more than almost any other country; NJ is at 11,000 tests per 1MM and the US is at 7000 tests per 1MM, both of which are middle-of-the-pack.
- US deaths continue to climb, hitting 1950 on 4/7, but dropping to 1450 on 4/8 (likely an accounting issue and not a trend downward) and NY deaths per day are still climbing a bit with 799 on 4/8 vs. 779 on 4/7, while NJ deaths were at 272 on 4/7 and dropped to 196 on 4/8 (probably not significant. Since we’ve now been on the new case plateau in NY/NJ for nearly a week, deaths will hopefully start to plateau in the next couple of days and maybe a few days later for the US.
- 7067 total deaths in NY. 2753 NY deaths from 911. He had no words for how horrific this has been.
- IMO, Cuomo does a superb job showing empathy for others, appreciation for everyone’s efforts, visioin for what needs to be done in the future and toughness for those who need it.
- Total number of 18K hospitalized in NY has almost completely leveled off with the net new hospitalizations (~200) being the lowest they’ve been in almost 3 weeks.
- This means NY is about at its peak and the peak should be in the 20-25K range. Cuomo showed the various model projections (see graphic) from the end of March for total hospitalizations and they ranged from about 50K to 135K, which is why NY was so aggressive in increasing their bed capacity from about 50K to 90K, which was accomplished. The high likelihood that this excess capacity won’t be needed is because the aggressive testing, quarantining and social distancing worked and continue to work. These need to continue.
- Similar outcomes for ventilators and PPE, although NY almost ran out of those many times due to the demand and the logistical challenge of stocking and staffing so many hospitals.
- While NY/NJ are doing better, plenty of states are having cases rising more quickly than NY/NJ.
- Cuomo reiterated that there was a ton to do before returning slowly to “yellow” (the new normal) from our current “red” with “green” (the old normal likely being pretty far off still).
Summary of key US/NY/NJ data through 4/11 and some comments from Cuomo’s 4/12 presser; several graphics are below.
- The Earth hit 1.78MM positive cases on 4/11 with 533K cases in the US, 181K in NY and 58K in NJ
- Both NY and NJ have reached the “peak plateau” in new cases, with some decline now occurring; the US has reached a peak plateau also (see graphics)
- NY now has done about 22K tests per 1MM in population, which is more than almost any other country; NJ is at 13K tests per 1MM (and Murphy said they’re still only testing symptomatic people given testing limitations) and the US is at 8K tests per 1MM, both of which are middle-of-the-pack.
- US deaths continued to climb to the 2000/day range the past few days, but appear to have finally plateaued. NY deaths per day have also plateaued around 700-800 per day, as have NJ deaths in the 200-300 per day range. Let’s hope thise all start to fall soon.
- 20.5K, 8.6K and 2.1K total deaths, respectively through 4/11 in the US, NY, and NJ. Note that these are well below the per capita deaths in Italy/Spain, but well above those in places like South Korea and Taiwan - it's all about when countries put interventions in place relative to their number of cases (and how effective those were).
- Total number of 19K hospitalized in NY has almost completely leveled off with the net new hospitalizations now being only a few hundred per day for the past several days, which is great.
- This means NY is about at its peak and the peak should be in the 20-25K range. As per my comment the other day, Cuomo showed the various model projections from mid/late March for total hospitalizations and they ranged from about 50K to 135K, which is why NY was so aggressive in increasing their bed capacity from about 50K to 90K, which was accomplished. That excess capacity won’t be needed due to the aggressive and effective testing, quarantining and social distancing that worked and continue to work and which need to continue.
- However, NY came much closer to running out of ventilators/PPE many times due to the logistical challenge of stocking and staffing so many hospitals. In fact, NY is now starting to release some ventilators (and staff) back to areas that had sent them to NY.
- While NY/NJ are doing better, plenty of states are still having cases rising much more quickly than NY/NJ now, although with social distancing in place everywhere in the US (even without formal orders in every state), currently no state appears to be having exponential growth, with only RI, and SD showing ~15% daily increases in new cases, which is still well less than exponential growth).
- Cuomo reiterated that there was a ton to do before returning slowly to “yellow” (the new normal) from our current “red” with “green” (the old normal likely being pretty far off still); he also reiterated that NY/NJ/CT plan to do this in a regionally coordinated fashion.
- The National Governors Association appealed to the Feds to put $500BB in the next relief package for the states, who all have major budget shortfalls from the pandemic costs.
- He also noted that NY/NJ will only get about $12K per coronavirus case from the stimulus bill, while several other states will get $300K per case, which is extremely unfair. There is no path to US recovery without the NYC metro area being part of that and our area cannot continue to be shortchanged, like it was during Hurricane Sandy.
- Happy Easter!!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://covidly.com/graph?country=United States
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This is a silly remark. There is a huge difference between there is no treatment for a disease versus a treatment has yet to be found. We are actively pursuing many potential treatments and hopefully we can come up with an array of treatments. There clinical studies being started in all of these ares.
prophylactic to protect against infection
early stage treatment to prevent hospitization
late stage treatment to prevent death
and ultimately a vaccine that is effective and safe
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/ex...us/UHVGZK5FFNAAJJR5L3DPLJGJQQ/?outputType=amp
Actemra is Genentech's IL-6 blocker
Actemra is Genentech's IL-6 blocker
I'm not "against HCQ" - its just that all the studies (past and present) don't support what people want to believe. This gives people the false belief that there is a cure or a preventative. It's essentially the equivalent of students practicing hiding under their desks in case a nuclear bomb was dropped.
Not according to Andrew Cuomo (D) Governor NY at his Sunday press conference there has been some promising results in the trials being done. So let’s wait until the end of summer and see what works and what doesn’t. As he said hope for this virus is something all of us should want. Not gloat that some people were wrong.
30-64 year olds constitute 47% of New Jersey's population, yet 65% of those testing positive. https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...rttTIGdcH8o8t0bwxtG2q9sasc2UiJ1nOdDCh2AKKloLg
You’re input and analysis on this thread as a member of the science/medical community are always appreciated.
GO RU
Some encouraging news from NJ. Today was the first day the state saw a decrease in hospitalizations, and is the second day in a row that patients on ventilators has decreased.
Certainly too early to say that the decrease is a trend, and it is not clear if the decrease is due to hospitalized/ventilated patients dying or improving. But it at least indicates that at this point in time, the influx of new patients is slowing down as compared to the number of patients exiting.
NJ's testing rate is still way too low to confirm if there is a decrease in new infections. The number of new cases reported is closely correlated to the number of tests performed. And the percent of tests which are reported positive continues to climb.
Without a significant increase in testing capacity, we can't really look at test results to see if the rate of infections is declining. So all we can do is look at the lagging indicators of hospitalizations, ventilator use, and deaths.
Certainly too early to say that the decrease is a trend, and it is not clear if the decrease is due to hospitalized/ventilated patients dying or improving. But it at least indicates that at this point in time, the influx of new patients is slowing down as compared to the number of patients exiting.
NJ's testing rate is still way too low to confirm if there is a decrease in new infections. The number of new cases reported is closely correlated to the number of tests performed. And the percent of tests which are reported positive continues to climb.
Without a significant increase in testing capacity, we can't really look at test results to see if the rate of infections is declining. So all we can do is look at the lagging indicators of hospitalizations, ventilator use, and deaths.
This has intrigued me since they started showing statistics state by state. Why is Connecticut's number of cases so low, relatively speaking? I would think they have residents who commute to NYC or Massachusetts for work. Thoughts?
Somerset/Hunterdon Counties have a testing site opening this Thursday by Dr.'s prescription only at RVCC.
Thank you so much for passing that on! My wife is technically a resident of Hunterdon County, and we have been hoping that there would be a test center there in case she becomes ill.
The key number is the number of cases per 1 million of population. There Connecticut ranks rather high. The raw number of cases is deceiving because it doesn't adjust for differences in population size.
Only open 16/17/20 until more kits are obtained. Once again you need a prescription and have had to make an appointment.
Thanks. I didn't look at that statistic. Still closer in number to MA vs NY or NJ.
What past studies don't support HCQ? There are only a few past studies of HCQ and CV19 and some do support it's use and some do not. As for present studies, there are only a few that are active and many more that just started and are being recruited or being planned. You have no access whatsoever to any of the data in the few ongoing studies. So we are left with is your opinion.
Why not say, in my opinion HCQ will not be the answer. Because right now that is all it is...
As for HCQ and why some hope it can make a difference I would recommend taking a moment of your time and understand the SCIENCE behind it:
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Please keep us informed about what happens at this site. If you'd like, you can launch a conversation with me if you are a premium member.
There are different tests, but the most common is the RT-PCR test and yes that is specific to Covid-19. If you get a positive it is almost certain you are positive. I have read there can be a lot of false negatives for various reasons.
Here's some food for thought... A friend of mine who is a nurse in Minnesota heard that they don't expect Midwest to hit its peak till September!!! I can't even fathom that...
So when where these invented? The tests themselves.
The “novel” part means this thing is new, right?
It's 1:40 AM and the Times Square webcam shows 4 guys doing some kind of a dance routine-in the rain.No social distancing there.
Keep in mind that comparing positive cases across states, a significant variable can be testing - both the number of tests and whether tests are being given to just symptomatic people or more than that. Within a state, which is likely doing testing similarly each day, looking at case rates can show when an outbreak is growing, plateauing or declining pretty well. But yes, in comparing states or countries, the best comparison is cases per capita and per 1MM has been adopted somewhat as a standard by many - also with regard to judging growth rates doing the chart on a logarithmic scale is best for seeing how the rate is changing.
Also, for looking at "bottom line" comparisons, since case numbers can be so fraught with uncertainties for the reasons I described above, looking at deaths per 1MM on a log scale (and usually from a common starting point like days beyond where the 1 death per 1MM was reached so that the curves can be on a normalized basis) is in the opinion of most experts, the best way to compare how countries are doing. You can get some sense of comparison of countries, just by looking at the deaths per 1MM column in the Worldometers table, but the graphics are a better apples to apples comparison from a common starting point. The two graphs below show that for selected countries, including the US - the first one has more countries and is easier to read, while the second one includes the dotted lines showing the slopes for doubling every 2, 4, and 12 days. The US curve is bending and should reach the slope for a doubling every 12 days shortly (and continue to drop, assuming we maintain interventions).
As I've said multiple times, on a cumulative deaths per capita basis, the US is not doing nearly as badly as Italy/Spain and a few other European countries, but on the other hand the US is doing much worse than the mostly Asia countries that controlled their outbreaks with earlier interventions (aggressive testing, contact tracing/quarantining and social distancing). Also, as I've posted before, the biggest variable in cumulative deaths per capita has been when, on the death curve, countries implemented aggressive interventions.
Roughly speaking, if we had started aggressive interventions 10 days later, we'd have Italy's death curve per capita (or close to it - the curves don't factor in population age and some other factors, but they're still pretty good), meaning we'd likely be headed towards 100-150K deaths, not the 40-60K deaths we're likely headed for. And if we had started aggressive interventions 10 days earlier, we likely be headed more towards a South Korea death curve with 4-5 deaths per 1MM or maybe 2000 total. This same comparison even holds true for states. California deaths per capita are so much lower than NY's because they started their interventions significantly earlier than NY when comparing the starting points of 10 deaths per 1MM. A lot of the details of the US to Italy and CA to NY comparisons are in the two posts below from about a week ago.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-55#post-4491470
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-56#post-4493107
The general polymerase chain reaction viral test has been around for a few decades, meaning that once the virus's RNA (that's all it really is inside some lipids/proteins) is sequenced, developing a virus specific PCR test isn't outrageously difficult. The Chinese developed their own and then the Germans developed one which was approved by the WHO on Jan-20th. The US/CDC fell badly behind developing and deploying its own test, as has been chronicled here and elsewhere many times. Private companies are now doing most of the test improvements and analyses.
Exactly. Without randomized, controlled (placebo or standard care), double-blind trials of sufficient size to provide statistical power for safety and efficacy, which we simply do not have right now, we're basically all "hoping" HCQ and HCQ combos work. Raoult's studies have been panned by many clinicians for being poorly controlled and not well documented and several studies have shown little benefit and concerns over QT prolongation especially in the combo with AZ. Derek Lowe has an excellent discussion of the questions swirling around HCQ in his 4/6 "In the Pipeline" which I think I posted back then. The only thing almost every doctor/clinician agrees on is that President Trump should not be commenting on clinical matters or "promoting" any drugs.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/06/hydroxychloroquine-update-for-april-6
Said this Rigano guy, who originally promoted HCQ on Tucker Carlson's show a few weeks ago looked like a salesman, even on my original post reporting his appearance on Fox. Story is now out that supposedly he never went to Stanford and is a complete fraud, as per the first link and the 2nd link details how the fake news was hatched and grown. Have no idea if Rauolt had any knowledge of what this asshat was doing, but his original paper that Trump's misleading (and dangerous) statements and tweets were based on has been discredited. One more reason why the President shouldn't be weighing in on medical matters.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...y-hustler-fake-Stanford-University-claim.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ad-about-hydroxychloroquine-its-consequences/
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I know you can’t resist your political jabs, but there is absolutely nothing wrong or “dangerous” about the president expressing hope in a time of crisis. As it happens HCQ has become part of the standard protocol at many places in the US and around the world. It’s obvious that your issue with it is about who , not what.
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