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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Here's the problem, though. Why was the death rate in China so low, except for Wuhan/Hubei? It's because when they realized what was going on in Wuhan, they shut down the rest of the country. This kept disease rates low and also avoided overwhelming the hospital system. Whereas in Wuhan, everyone got sick at once and they couldn't all be treated. There may have been other factors but that was almost certainly a major part of things.

Other countries (ahem, US) had the opportunity to observe and learn from this. Some took it seriously - Singapore, Hong Kong, especially South Korea. They were ready to do massive amounts of testing to identify and quarantine cases. And so far that seems to be working. In contrast, here in the US we are still in the "denial, it can't happen here, our health system can handle anything" stage. We have no idea how many are sick or where they are, except for the current hotspots. And there seems to be no real urgency to get testing implemented on a large scale. Lots of talk, no action. It's criminal, really.

China was not quick to "shut down the rest of the country."

China built makeshift, temporary hospitals after there was an outbreak and specifically to handle it, which is exactly what would have to be done in the U.S. And honestly, having extra capacity in normal conditions (i.e., having a health system that would be capable of handling a great influx of patients all the time) would be incredibly foolish and wasteful. So many hospitals have had financial issues in the past 20 years, and they need to be filled to a high percentage all the time to remain solvent. In my opinion, you don't build extra hospitals (not to mention staff them) because once every 100 years there is going to be a huge disease outbreak.

One observation the other countries should be making is that there is so far very little risk to younger healthy people and it makes a lot more sense, from the standpoint of efficiency to society, to isolate those at risk than everyone. No one should be saying "it can't happen here." What they should be doing is realizing that it will happen (and in fact already is happening) here but that doesn't mean you throw all perspective out the window.
 
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Some really good videos being put out by Dr. John Campbell a health expert/practitioner from the UK - and not just because he's saying almost the exact same things I've been saying, lol, i.e., lack of testing and lack of proactivity by governments almost everywhere, except South Korea - he also sees them as a likely "model" for how to deal with this pandemic.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnsc...reat-panic-of-coronavirus-myths/#6a2936fe2c51

His info has been great. I've been following his videos since the first appeared on the coronavirus subreddit back in Jan.

The down players are just plain ignorant. Sure more people die of the flu, but when you get the flu, you know pretty damn quick that you have the flu. This virus can take up to two weeks for symptoms to manifest themselves. In that time, people with the virus are still highly contagious.
 
Rutgers shutting down all classes early for spring break, starting this Thursday and all classes after spring break through 4/3 must be available on-line. Smart move and nice use of technology.

Also, they're "encouraging" students to stay away from campus through 4/3, if possible, but aren't closing dorms/cafeterias, etc. In addition, starting March 12, Rutgers events and in-person meetings involving groups larger than 15 participants are cancelled through April 15. Guidance related to this policy will be reviewed again by April 1.
 
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I think they need to be aggressively proactive in shutting down movement: schools, businesses, etc. Close schools and conduct classes online for 2-3 weeks. Highly encourage companies to allow their employees to work from home where applicable. We need to get ahead of the curve.
 
China was not quick to "shut down the rest of the country
So you're telling me they didn't quarantine large parts of the country (including Beijing, Shanghai, etc) once they realized the scale of the problem in Wuhan? Because if that's what you're telling me, you are wrong.

One observation the other countries should be making is that there is so far very little risk to people and it makes a lot more sense, from the standpoint of efficiency to society, to isolate those at risk than everyone. No one should be saying "it can't happen here." What they should be doing is realizing that it will happen here but that doesn't mean you throw all perspective out the window.
Very little risk to people...depends on how you define risk. The death rate is relatively low if you are in good health and under 60, but even so it is quite a bit higher than seasonal flu. And even for those younger people who survive, a fair number wind up in the hospital and some do get ARDS and require ventilators and lengthy ICU type care. Even if you survive that (both medically and financially) there is a risk that your health is damaged long term.

And if a lot of people wind up needing that kind of intensive care, hospitals get overwhelmed and then when you have your heart attack or stroke or intestinal blockage or whatever, you may not be able to get treated. So yeah, it makes sense to protect/isolate the most vulnerable but it also makes sense to not let it spread like wildfire through the rest of the population just because the death rate is lower.
 
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Yep, it's an absolute shit show over there - too many cases too fast could be in our future too. Only thing that might save us in densely populated areas with outbreaks is our population isn't as old as theirs. Or spring to the rescue, which is possible, but unknown.

The kicker is that just before the quarantine hit people were allowed to fly out. US Customs wasn't keeping Lombardy people out (same for Iran where a positive lady came to NY from).

There has been some reporting of two potential strains at work with Italy and Iran perhaps being a more severe form. I dont know if anyone can tell but I dont like the Russian Roulette approach to letting people in from hot zones. I have people working in hospital and in area where Cuomo just sent National Guard.

Discovery Of 2 Strains Of COVID-19 Coronavirus Hints At How It Evolved
https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisett...navirus-hints-at-how-it-evolved/#72416e1a7094
 
Governor Cuomo establishes a one square mile Containment Zone within New Rochelle. National Guard being deployed to assist police in maintaining order.

ef54513c-dde6-4b3f-a033-b9aa5f2937c4-3.10.20_NR_Map-page-001.jpg
 
One smart thing I did over the last year or so was to go very conservative in my 401K/portfolio, as I just retired and am more concerned with preservation than growth. Fortunately, I've only lost about 5% while the Dow is down about 17% since the bear market has taken hold.
Overall not a bear market, except specific sectors like energy, banking and airlines, only one of which is due to the virus.
 
My buddy works at Barclays. They got an email this afternoon that some guy on the 2nd floor tested positive.
 
Interesting discussion by epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch talking about how contact tracing is going to become impossible as outbreaks expand, next step needs to be social distancing/quarantine, etc.


 
So you're telling me they didn't quarantine large parts of the country (including Beijing, Shanghai, etc) once they realized the scale of the problem in Wuhan? Because if that's what you're telling me, you are wrong.


Very little risk to people...depends on how you define risk. The death rate is relatively low if you are in good health and under 60, but even so it is quite a bit higher than seasonal flu. And even for those younger people who survive, a fair number wind up in the hospital and some do get ARDS and require ventilators and lengthy ICU type care. Even if you survive that (both medically and financially) there is a risk that your health is damaged long term.

And if a lot of people wind up needing that kind of intensive care, hospitals get overwhelmed and then when you have your heart attack or stroke or intestinal blockage or whatever, you may not be able to get treated. So yeah, it makes sense to protect/isolate the most vulnerable but it also makes sense to not let it spread like wildfire through the rest of the population just because the death rate is lower.

Sorry, I typed my original post quickly so I had to edit parts of it.

As to the quarantine, the key in your post is "once they realized the scale of the problem." That is different than saying that it was done early on in the overall timeline. The U.S. is still far earlier in an analogous timeline than when China took those measures.

As to the "very little risk" comment, I meant to say to younger, healthy people. But yes, the point remains. Everyone should be smart, but overall efficiency and cost to society are as important as being singularly focused on stopping one virus in one instance.

There is scant little evidence to suggest that closing all schools is an efficient and net-positive step to take for society at large. Right now, if anything is going to overwhelm the health system, it is hysteria -- people going to hospitals when they have even the slightest problem.
 
Sorry, I typed my original post quickly so I had to edit parts of it.

As to the quarantine, the key in your post is "once they realized the scale of the problem." That is different than saying that it was done early on in the overall timeline. The U.S. is still far earlier in an analogous timeline than when China took those measures.
Actually, when China shut down Wuhan the number of known cases was lower than the US currently has (reported cases at least). Realize it's been spreading silently through this country for a month or more, just like it was spreading in Wuhan for a month before they shut it down. Very similar. Not sure when they implemented the measures elsewhere in China but wasn't too long after Wuhan. Bottom line, we need to act now.

If you wait till it's too late...it's too late.

BTW...reports coming out of Italy suggest severe cases are increasing in the younger age groups, particularly those 40-49.
 
Interesting discussion by epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch talking about how contact tracing is going to become impossible as outbreaks expand, next step needs to be social distancing/quarantine, etc.



I don't know if I should laugh or cry. Weeks ago I kept reading US pols and authorities saying that US didn't need to block too much travel because US system was "so advanced" and contact tracing so thorough.

Now its "oops..we have too much community spread to rely on tracing"
 
Actually, when China shut down Wuhan the number of known cases was lower than the US currently has (reported cases at least). Realize it's been spreading silently through this country for a month or more, just like it was spreading in Wuhan for a month before they shut it down. Very similar. Not sure when they implemented the measures elsewhere in China but wasn't too long after Wuhan. Bottom line, we need to act now.

If you wait till it's too late...it's too late.

BTW...reports coming out of Italy suggest severe cases are increasing in the younger age groups, particularly those 40-49.


Trump's former pandemic adviser: 'We are 10 days from our hospitals getting creamed'

https://theweek.com/speedreads/9012...er-are-10-days-from-hospitals-getting-creamed
 
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I don't know if I should laugh or cry. Weeks ago I kept reading US pols and authorities saying that US didn't need to block too much travel because US system was "so advanced" and contact tracing so thorough.

Now its "oops..we have too much community spread to rely on tracing"
Well they blew it by not having enough testing capacity during the period when contact tracing would matter. There are probably parts of the country (maybe most of it in terms of area) where it's still early enough but places like Seattle, NYC...might be too late because of extensive spread. Should still try, though, in my opinion, until it's obvious that it's not worth the effort.
 
Well they blew it by not having enough testing capacity during the period when contact tracing would matter. There are probably parts of the country (maybe most of it in terms of area) where it's still early enough but places like Seattle, NYC...might be too late because of extensive spread. Should still try, though, in my opinion, until it's obvious that it's not worth the effort.

I keep hearing there are 1 million test kits out now but doctors are saying they cant get them
 
From Michelle Schoenung, a journalist and translator living in Milan

"I am in Milan in the heart of the coronavirus red zone . I know we are all sick of hearing about it. I certainly am, but I wanted to share these thoughts because I feel like there is a lot of misinformation out there. Considering we've been in some form of lockdown for three weeks now (now drastic measures are being taken and we are quarantined at home), I feel like I've become somewhat of an expert on this. At least, this is my experience and what I've learned in these weeks.

We are fine physically (for now), but, mentally, quarantine conditions and the devastating news around us does take its toll. To anyone anywhere saying, “Hey, it’s just the flu” or “The flu causes more deaths per year,” STOP. The rate of transmission with coronavirus is much higher and none of us is vaccinated against it. Worse, it causes a type of pneumonia that can leave patients in intensive care for weeks. The idea that it only affects the elderly or those with immune disorders is also wrong.

No healthcare system in the world can handle the onslaught this virus brings with it, and we should not put our doctors and nurses in a position where they have to decide who gets the last bed in intensive care, who gets the last respirator.

The hospital down the road where my children were born has had to adopt a “selection protocol” whereby they decide who lives or dies, and this is something that hasn’t been enacted since World War II. As someone who has been mired in all of this since Feb. 24. I would just like to give some advice to anyone in the world in an area where coronavirus is starting to ramp up. First and foremost, you don’t necessarily need to hoard toilet paper but you should get stocked up on your prescriptions. Primary-care doctors are at great risk of being exposed to coronavirus, so if they are taken out of commission (and even once the madness reaches fever pitch), it makes it harder for you to get the things you need. Also, once this is widespread, medical offices, hospitals and pharmacies are not places you want to hang out.

Finally, we are all soldiers in this fight. The less we are out and about, moving around, the more this virus dies out. We may have to be inconvenienced or have to change our habits for a while, but our actions have a direct impact on the lives of everyone around us, with effects that are felt far and wide."

https://www.facebook.com/michelle.s...yMzg5MjE2MzcxMTc4NDI5XzIzODk2NTc4NzExMzQyNzk=
 
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The Yonkers closing was because of a prominent horseman at the track who died of the virus.He was the NJ death.Murphy did not name him.Interestingly,the attached casino to Yonkers remains open.
 
I keep hearing there are 1 million test kits out now but doctors are saying they cant get them
Quest and Labcorp are testing already. 4 million testing kits will be distributed within the week. People need to understand, this is a completely new virus that has developed at least two known mutations, and we can't just call up South Korea or China and tell them we're buying 20 million kits, please DHL them ASAP.
 
Quest and Labcorp are testing already. 4 million testing kits will be distributed within the week. People need to understand, this is a completely new virus that has developed at least two known mutations, and we can't just call up South Korea or China and tell them we're buying 20 million kits, please DHL them ASAP.

I understand that but the pols are on TV talking about how 1 million test kits are ready and available. Many people have detected the disconnect between reality and a robust stream of BS. South Korea tested 140-160k people and have managed to limit the "surge" that nukes hospitals. US hasn't done that sort of thing and people know it. A lot of US people have done a bad job and its becoming more clear

Opinion: Why this epidemiologist is more worried about coronavirus than he was a month ago
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...oronavirus-than-he-was-a-month-ago-2020-03-09
 
The panic is just starting. We just had a township alert, email, text and automated phone call, about a possible case. Here's the email:
It has been brought to our attention that there are concerns in the community regarding a potential case of Coronavirus.

This message was released by the Wayne Township Police Department indicating that there is no cause for concern:

A person presented at a Wayne med clinic today concerned of COVID-19 exposure. Precautions were followed. Secondary screening found the subject was a-symptomatic and was not taken to a hospital.
 
I understand that but the pols are on TV talking about how 1 million test kits are ready and available. Many people have detected the disconnect between reality and a robust stream of BS. South Korea tested 140-160k people and have managed to limit the "surge" that nukes hospitals. US hasn't done that sort of thing and people know it. A lot of US people have done a bad job and its becoming more clear

Opinion: Why this epidemiologist is more worried about coronavirus than he was a month ago
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...oronavirus-than-he-was-a-month-ago-2020-03-09
Yeah. You know, we all have the same starting point. The viral genome was decoded in mid-late January, I believe. Everyone had access to it. South Korea had capability to test tens or hundreds of thousands way before the US because we thought we could do it better. Well, that didn't work out too well.

I keep hearing about these millions of tests but then I read about how all the labs are backlogged with the current (minimal) test volume so doing millions of tests is not going to happen any time soon.

We made our bed and it is what it is at this point. I say good luck to everyone. Gonna back out of these discussions for a while as there doesn't seem to be much to say at this point.
 
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Quest and Labcorp are testing already. 4 million testing kits will be distributed within the week. People need to understand, this is a completely new virus that has developed at least two known mutations, and we can't just call up South Korea or China and tell them we're buying 20 million kits, please DHL them ASAP.
Actually, you're wrong on that. The German test was available and sanctioned by the WHO in 1/20 and the CDC refused to consider it. Then many other countries, including SK developed their own testing procedures and have ramped up production and are selling them to other countries. We could've bought the SK test kits weeks ago. Complete shitshow by the CDC and this Administration at every turn on testing, which will likely result in far more serious sicknesses and deaths than would've happened otherwise.

"By late February, when South Korea’s outbreak began to accelerate, four local companies had approval to sell kits to test for the virus. The country is now able to test more than 10,000 people a day. In neighboring Japan, only 2,684 people in total have been tested as of March 3.

The tests can deliver results within hours, with sensitivity rates of over 90% and are relatively easy to administer. Officials in Seoul have started operating “drive-through” testing stations in three districts where people can get tested without leaving their cars.

The country is also exporting its testing kits elsewhere, including to China, Europe and Pakistan, according to the manufacturers."


https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http...k9_7vnN5B4KPHAOuIZ5b98gIf7fTTyo1i5Ph0N2hosGPw

And this article shows how inept we've been with testing, so far, vs. other countries; the graphic is from this story. As I've posted before intensive testing is likely the biggest reason SK appears to have its outbreak under control, while nobody else does (that and aggressive social distancing).

5e66b72584159f21ad7f0617

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...7EKD8d0lsqRzCv3s0rQoY0oIOngKXsg16XoO0UMF7fpVo
 
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I understand that but the pols are on TV talking about how 1 million test kits are ready and available. Many people have detected the disconnect between reality and a robust stream of BS. South Korea tested 140-160k people and have managed to limit the "surge" that nukes hospitals. US hasn't done that sort of thing and people know it. A lot of US people have done a bad job and its becoming more clear

Opinion: Why this epidemiologist is more worried about coronavirus than he was a month ago
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...oronavirus-than-he-was-a-month-ago-2020-03-09
Great article, thanks. Kind of strange to be very aligned on a non-sports topic, lol.
 
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Warning - very long post trying to summarize many things about COVID-19...

Seems like a lot of people are underplaying this, presumably because they simply don't fully understand the fundamental science of infectious disesases, the epidemiology of viral infections, and the risks involved in the face of high uncertainties on transmission rates and mortality rates - some similarities exist to deterministic numerical weather prediction models with there being a range of outcomes out in time that become more uncertain the further out in time one goes. However, this is not a "chaotic" system, like weather, so there are a much narrower set of outcomes possible. Here's my attempt to try to explain why this is not the flu and why the risks of inaction or poorly executed actions are far greater than for the flu or SARS/MERS.

The bottom line for everyone is that SARS-CoV2 has a significantly greater transmission rate than influenza (R-naught is 2-3 vs. about 1.3 for the flu, meaning without intervention, each infected person would be expected to infect 2-3 others for coronavirus and only 1.3 others for influenza) and has significantly greater mortality (and I'll get to this in a second) and hospitalization rates than influenza, such that if we treated it like the flu, i.e., did essentially nothing, we'd see many more deaths than the 30-60K we have each year in the US (and more hospitalizations). How effective we'll be in the US in making this less impactful than influenza is an open question.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR0LaDqifJTW9mENQXL6olEkj7jkEBarsm_cYLlTXpj88rALqP9Vz5gBljo

Fortunately, we have epidemiologists and infectious disease scientists who actually know stuff, which is why every country in the world, including even the US, despite elements of our government leadership downplaying this, is taking moderate to very aggressive steps to contain the burgeoning outbreaks in order to greatly reduce transmission rates (since mortality rates are mostly constant, until and unless we get some medical treatment breakthroughs - and vaccines aren't "treatment" - they're only prevention and we won't have any until at least next winter), so that the actual outcomes aren't worse than the flu or even that close, if we do this right.

So, let's talk about mortality rates. Yes, the overall currently reported mortality rates of 2-5% are inflated, because the denominator of total infections is not well known in most countries, largely due to far from comprehensive testing. A much more likely eventual mortality rate is about 0.5-1.0%, based on the ~0.7% seen so far in South Korea, where they've tested 10X more people than anyone and close to 1000X more people (per capita) than the US. Even at 0.5% that's 2.5-5X the average overall influenza mortality rate of 0.1-0.2% (depending on severity that season) worldwide and at 1.0% that would be 5-10X the mortality rate of influenza. Those are the mutlipliers (or more we'd likely see if we did nothing at all). Also, the mortality rate on that floating coronavirus experiment, the Diamond Princess, showed an overall mortality rate of about 1% (close to the SK number and the number postulated in the link below), with all the deaths being in those over 80.

https://slate.com/technology/2020/0...wRWmsoZJ8PHkgyHu6WDNkDwVRsvZ-cdQZd-pV2OwP6PQ0

Now let's talk about age group mortality rates. The best data on that is still from China, given how large and long lasting their outbreak has been - of course these might be a bit high vs. "true" mortality rates, when compared to SK, assuming SK has close to the "true" rates, as the overall rate in China has been reported to be anywhere from 1.4-3.4% but they're at least illustrative.

Older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%, whereas it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69, 1.3% for 50 to 59, 0.4% for those 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. No deaths in children under 9 have been reported. Even if these were cut by half or by 2/3, they're still well beyond what we see for influenza, where mortality rates in those over 65 is about 1% of those infected and is about 0.02% for those under 40, giving the overall rate of 0.1-0.2%.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Finally, given the ongoing pandemic, what do we do about it? Well, as I've posted several times, I think the answer lies in South Korea. The most important element of their programs is that they've been testing like crazy (over 190,000 tests so far vs. about 7500 confirmed cases) and practicing effective social distancing/self-quarantining, including not allowing large crowds to gather (but not in full lockdown); in addition, finding out positive cases early on means both better treatment outcomes and self-quarantining of infected people, greatly reducing transmission rates.. They've essentially flattened the Farr's Law epidemiological curve, as per the first graphic, below, to reduce the peak "height" of max number of cases, so that health systems can keep up with infections, rather than being overwhelmed as occurred in Wuhan and is occurring in Iran and Italy - and I think is likely to occur here, at least in very densely populated areas like the DC-Boston corridor.

89770615_10218427592675163_4267245025861042176_n.jpg


https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...hundreds-of-thousands-to-fight-virus-outbreak

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Without such testing, as has largely been the case here, there are likely many infected, but asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people walking around taking no precautions and infecting other people, some of whom are likely in much higher risk age/condition groups - so even though people under 40 are unlikely to be seriously impacted (although fatality rates in China were still above those of influenza, except for children), they can still have a large impact by simply being carriers, especially since the median incubation time from infection to symptoms is 5 days - hence the need for testing and social distancing.

And while SK has 7500 cases, most of that originated early on when travel from China was not restricted. However, recently, the case rate is decreasing, plus their mortality rate is much lower than anywhere else (0.7% vs. 2-5% elsewhere), partly because of early identification/treatment and partly because the denominator is likely close to the real denominator, since they're finding mildly symptomatic people others aren't - and in fact the "true" mortality rate is probably close to SK's, but that's impossible to know without a lot more testing in these other countries.

Unfortunately, the US is not taking SK's approach, having completely bungled testing, which continues, as we've tested 1000X less people, per capita than SK (see table below). It's unconscionable - this lack of testing is putting us at real risk of an Italy-style outbreak, especially in highly densely populated areas like DC to Boston, including NJ/NY, obviously. So, think about all of this when you get annoyed at that school closing or event being cancelled or having to work from home. Hopefully we'll start to see a lot more proactive efforts here at home soon, because if we don't it's going to get ugly fast.

88982670_10218422250781619_4379613194369368064_n.jpg


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-covid-19-tests-per-capita-chart-us-behind-2020-3

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-testing-diagnostic-covid19-united-states

Once again, this is not influenza - it's much more dangerous, even if the outcomes, worldwide, end up showing far less deaths than influenza, due to countries realizing the risks and implementing interventions to reduce transmission rates, since "true" mortality rates should be a constant. Kind of like Y2K, where billions were spent to prevent a potential catastrophe and then when the catastrophe didn't occur because of those efforts, many people said we wasted our efforts.

As an aside, I've never worried about any infections before, but I'm worried about this one - we've been in near lockdown for the past 8 days (some asthma and other issues). I'm not worried much about me, but I also don't want to go out and catch the virus and infect my wife and son or anyone else, really) and we have about a month's worth of non-perishable food.

One more thing. We also don't know yet if this will be seasonal, like the flu and die down in spring - one would think it should be, given virus sensitivity to heat/UV and increased humidity reducing transmission rates (more effective mucus and less "travel"/resuspension in air of viruses when it's humid) and less people being confined from the cold. However, SARS petered out before spring and MERS started in September in Saudi Arabia, so we don't know the seasonal behavior of those coronaviruses. In addition, it's becoming more likely that this virus will be around for awhile.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-epidemiologist-is-more-worried-about-coronavirus-than-he-was-a-month-ago-2020-03-09

Ok last thing: I'd love to know what's going on in Germany. 1565 cases and only 2 deaths (0.1-0.2% mortality rate). Data problem, weird outlier, lack of reporting?

3/11 Edit: Not surprisingly, many experts are giving credit to Germany's aggressive testing approach (see link), which is not surprising since the Germans were the ones who developed the WHO-approved test in late January that much of the world uses (but not the US). Also, it should be noted that Germany is the oldest country in Europe (older even than Italy), so high fatality rates, like Italy has seen (6%) are not necessarily a given, due to an aging population. Having said that, though, it's still too early in the evolution of this situation to declare "victory" in Germany, but it's definitely worth paying attention to.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/09/world/europe/ap-eu-virus-outbreak-germany.html
 
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Great article, thanks. Kind of strange to be very aligned on a non-sports topic, lol.

I spent 10 years with Lyme - caught it when media was portraying it as just bad poison ivy type rash. Was losing vision/hearing and had frozen joints. Took 3 years and multiple MDs to figure out what was going on. I'm well aware of the pitfalls in emerging disease. The experts on TV are rarely the best. The actual best often have to fight uphill. Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see
 
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Yeah, you know, look. It's pretty clear you have a political bias. That's OK, most of us do and I celebrate the fact that we can all express our thoughts without fear of negative repercussions, unlike Dr. Li in China. However, you know damn well, having spent your career in the business, that it's not the government's job in this country to develop the testing methods or distribute the tests and so forth. We rely on private industry to do that. In that regard, the government has done everything they can to expedite the process. At the end of the day, would you rather have the inefficient process we have or politicians making political decisions, like they did in China, jailing Dr Li and many others?
 
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