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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Because doctors on the ground were claiming they had no ventillators.. are you being willfully obtuse
 
Because doctors on the ground were claiming they had no ventillators.. are you being willfully obtuse
Both things were true at the same time - there were enough ventilators at each hospital, in theory, and more in storage, but in a few local cases, the ventilators ran out temporarily. It can happen in a crisis with challenging logistics and supply chains (even local ones). It probably means that more of the ventilators in storage should be released to hospitals running on the edge.
 
Just read this beauty from an article in today's Washington Post.

"Japan says inaccurate tests can do more harm than good. Last week, Spain stopped using test kits imported from China after finding they had an accuracy rate of only 30 percent."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...e81b44-6eb6-11ea-a156-0048b62cdb51_story.html
The WHO-approved tests which the vast majority of the world has been using are significantly more accurate (probably 50-70% accurate, like similar tests for the flu, as per below) that those Chinese test kits, but the test, in general, is not that sensitive to low levels of the virus, which means there are a sizable number of false negatives.

This is also why there are many patients who test negative, get sicker, then test positive later. The bigger problem, though, is people who test negative, then improve, then go out into the world contagious and not knowing it, so there's no doubt that better tests would help. With regard to Spain, it's not clear if that was a flawed set of test kits or if the Chinese version of the test is actually worse - haven't seen anyone discussing that.

COVID-19 tests are new, and assessing their accuracy is challenging. PCR tests may produce false negatives, failing to identify evidence of SARS-CoV-2.

Sometimes false negatives result from human error or problems with the procedure. Giving the test too early or late, for example, can lead to a false negative. The accuracy of similar tests for influenza is generally 50–70%.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-testing#accuracy
 
Both things were true at the same time - there were enough ventilators at each hospital, in theory, and more in storage, but in a few local cases, the ventilators ran out temporarily. It can happen in a crisis with challenging logistics and supply chains (even local ones). It probably means that more of the ventilators in storage should be released to hospitals running on the edge.

You know exactly the slant that was portrayed in the press...dont be coy
 
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Shorter summary today. The good news is that the rate of increase in new cases is slowing a bit for NY/NYC and new hospitalizations and ICU cases yesterday actually decreased vs. Thursday, although we need more than 1 day's worth of date to have confidence that's not just a blip.
  • Testing: 155K tests in NY/65K in NYC, so far, and 17K/8K yesterday in NY/NYC
  • 52K positives in NY/30K in NYC, so far, and 7600/4300 new cases in NY/NYC yesterday
    • Note that it was 7300/4000 new cases in NY/NYC on Thursday, so the growth rate is declining (<10% increase yesterday vs. 20-30% for the past several days)
  • 728 deaths total in NY, up 209 from yesterday
  • 7328 hospitalized in total (847 new yesterday vs. 1100 new on Thursday); 2726 discharged
  • 1765 in ICU (w/ventilators) in total (172 new yesterday vs. 290 new on Thursday– nice improvement
  • Total cases elsewhere: 8800 in NJ, 4900 in CA and over 3000 in WA, MI, MA, FL, IL, LA
  • Apex in model is in 14-21 days and model is still indicating a need of 140K beds and 30K ICU/ventilators ($35K per ventilator); hopefully won't reach these, but could easily surpass the 53K beds/4K ventilators NY started with
  • Trump approved 4 more emergency medical sites for the Feds to build 4 more 1000 bed hospitals (now 1 in every borough)
  • NY approval for antibody tests from FDA to see who has recovered – in concert with plasma-antibody approach for treating serious cases, which starts Monday, I believe, at Mt. Sinai Hospital
https://www.governor.ny.gov/keywords/health

Summary of today's by presser Cuomo ...
  • 172K tests so far in NY/73K in NYC and 16K/7K (NY/NYC) yesterday
  • 59.5K positives so far in NY/33.7K in NYC and 7200/4000 yesterday in NY/NYC (7600/4300 day before) – this is the first time we’ve seen a decrease in new cases in either NY or NYC, since cases started rising quickly. Great news! This is not yet the “peak” since hospitalization/ICU cases are still increasing, as per below, but it’s a good sign that maybe the peak will not be the modeled peak – if the current interventions are maintained.
  • 965 total deaths in NY so far, up 237 from yesterday (was up 209 two days ago) and this is likely to keep increasing, as deaths lag cases by 2-4 weeks.
  • Total of 8500 currently hospitalized in NY (1200 new vs. 847 yesterday and 1100 2 days ago)
  • Hospitalization rate doubling every 6 days, looking at last 3 days data (was every 2 days a week ago), so rate of increase has decreased significantly and possibly leveled off, which is good.
  • Total of 2037 currently in ICU, which means on ventilators usually; this is 272 new vs. 172 new yesterday and 374 new 2 days ago (bouncing around as expected),
  • Total of 3572 discharged (2726 as of yesterday, so 846 discharged yesterday – rate is increasing
  • 80% of cases continue to self resolve or mild symptoms resolving at home
  • Total of 59.5K cases in NY, 11K in NJ, 5500 in CA, 4600 in MI, 4300 in WA, 4300 in MA, 4000 in FL, 3500 in IL, 3300 in LA, 2800 in PA - most of these other states now accelerating faster than NY.
  • CDC ordered travel advisory for NY/NJ/CT (not a lockdown) to be implemented by states to discourage all travel, which he supports and NY/NJ/CT have implemented. RI dropped their “quarantine on New Yorkers” exective order and Trump dropped his "quarantine" talk.
  • Quoted FDR: “courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the assessment that something else is more important than fear.”
https://www.governor.ny.gov/keywords/health
 
So what's the current thought on old folks facilities and the like?

Should people be getting their parents out of there?
 
Summary of today's by presser Cuomo ...
  • 172K tests so far in NY/73K in NYC and 16K/7K (NY/NYC) yesterday
  • 59.5K positives so far in NY/33.7K in NYC and 7200/4000 yesterday in NY/NYC (7600/4300 day before) – this is the first time we’ve seen a decrease in new cases in either NY or NYC, since cases started rising quickly. Great news! This is not yet the “peak” since hospitalization/ICU cases are still increasing, as per below, but it’s a good sign that maybe the peak will not be the modeled peak – if the current interventions are maintained.
  • 965 total deaths in NY so far, up 237 from yesterday (was up 209 two days ago) and this is likely to keep increasing, as deaths lag cases by 2-4 weeks.
  • Total of 8500 currently hospitalized in NY (1200 new vs. 847 yesterday and 1100 2 days ago)
  • Hospitalization rate doubling every 6 days, looking at last 3 days data (was every 2 days a week ago), so rate of increase has decreased significantly and possibly leveled off, which is good.
  • Total of 2037 currently in ICU, which means on ventilators usually; this is 272 new vs. 172 new yesterday and 374 new 2 days ago (bouncing around as expected),
  • Total of 3572 discharged (2726 as of yesterday, so 846 discharged yesterday – rate is increasing
  • 80% of cases continue to self resolve or mild symptoms resolving at home
  • Total of 59.5K cases in NY, 11K in NJ, 5500 in CA, 4600 in MI, 4300 in WA, 4300 in MA, 4000 in FL, 3500 in IL, 3300 in LA, 2800 in PA - most of these other states now accelerating faster than NY.
  • CDC ordered travel advisory for NY/NJ/CT (not a lockdown) to be implemented by states to discourage all travel, which he supports and NY/NJ/CT have implemented. RI dropped their “quarantine on New Yorkers” exective order and Trump dropped his "quarantine" talk.
  • Quoted FDR: “courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the assessment that something else is more important than fear.”
https://www.governor.ny.gov/keywords/health
 
And in the end Trump will be blamed for not quarantining New York City March 29,2020... was blamed for closing borders and flights coming into the US ... blamed for holding covid19 cases on a cruise vessel or 2-3 ... blamed for the lack of preparedness at the state levels run by governors who want their autonomy but not when the shit hits the fan....Trump guilty of not getting the financial package out 3 months ago... the clown show media ... all of them are guilty... every politician has some culpability for this disaster... we all hope some good comes out after this fiasco but we never learn... we put the same carpetbaggers in office... time to realize we are a dumb country .
 
I have watched this video many times, very interesting, I was just getting ready to show it to my family, when
I decided to go on line here for awhile instead, and noticed you already mentioned it.
He actually stated it was not airborn, only hands to mouth 99.9% but wearing a mask would help keep your hands off
your face. I liked the video except the part where he started to cry, that was weird.

That is mostly true. Nebulizers and high flow oxygen can aerosolize the virus and make it airborne. One option is using meter dose inhalers (MDIs) which are your asthma inhalers, the ones people can carry around with them. But there is a critical shortage of them due to this virus and nebulizers may be the only option...thus aerosolizeing the virus. If someone is getting bad and regular oxygen is ineffective, high flow oxygen can be used. It is humidified with sterile water (?) and can be forced in through a large bore nasal cannula up to a rate of 30 liters/min and can aerosolize the virus. Also ventilator connections can become loose and disconnected aerosolizing the virus.

Here’s a friendly wager...when a vaccine is found and it will hopefully by next summer...the anti vax groups will have 2nd thoughts... if it is so dangerous your risk of not being vaccinated would far out way the threat of the vaccine causing your death... having something that could immunize the population is the great equalizer... in life some things are a crap shoot as the saying goes... My concern is this season’s flu vaccine... they better be working on that all the time...stay well and good luck ... now to hope we get Cliff O.

We got him!!! :CHOP:

Great to see people getting it about masks "keeping the germs in" and slowing the transmission rate. We need the Federal and State Governments to start championing this approach.

Simple concept, isn't it? Here's an analogy. Walk into a moderate size room with 50 people in it and throw a few handfuls of jelly beans in different directions. Those who get hit, get the virus. Now walk into the same room but instantly notice a huge plexiglass plate in front of you. Throw your jelly beans and watch them bounce back at you and never hit any of the 50 people in the room. No virus spread. Please forward this to Debbie Birx. If she needs a simpler example or the Cliff notes, I can procure them so she gets the gist.

I assume you've only been against the moderately effective flu vaccine, correct? That's understandable given your practices. The term "anti-vaxers" typically refers to the lunatics who are against all vaccines (the Jenny McCarthy/Dr. Whitehead-fabricated-vaccines-cause-autism crowd) and it would surprise (stun really) me if you were against all vaccines.

Yes, you are correct. I'm not against all vaccines and oddly haven't heard the term anti-vaxer before. I typically just say the nut job when referencing these individuals.
 
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Fauci with some potential numbers. Not sure the time frame of how they come to fruition. The UW one above in the nj.com article was for over the next 4 months.

From the article:

Washington (CNN)The nation's top infectious disease expert said Sunday that based on models, the United States could eventually see 100,000 or more deaths from the novel coronavirus, which has already claimed more than 2,000 American lives as cases surge across the US.

"Whenever the models come in, they give a worst-case scenario and a best-case scenario. Generally, the reality is somewhere in the middle. I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case actually came out. They always overshoot," Dr. Anthony Fauci, a key member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."
"I mean, looking at what we're seeing now, you know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 (deaths). But I don't want to be held to that," he said, adding that the US is going to have "millions of cases."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/coronavirus-deaths-cases-anthony-fauci-cnntv/index.html
 
So what's the current thought on old folks facilities and the like?

Should people be getting their parents out of there?
No, actually it's better to keep them isolated, no one going in or out unless absolutely necessary.
 
Here’s a friendly wager...when a vaccine is found and it will hopefully by next summer...the anti vax groups will have 2nd thoughts...

There is no way I am putting anything in my body connected at all with the current administration. I trust nothing.
 
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Excellent analysis from the U of Washington and not just because it's very aligned with my thinking, lol. Their range is 38-162K deaths, depending on how effective interventions are and my range (post linked below from yesterday) was about 35-170K deaths (flu is 35K in an average year) depending on how effective our interventions are - and I think we can even beat that low end of the range (~35K deaths, comparable to the flu) with very, very good interventions. I also was saying our range of serious hospitalizations is about 4X deaths or 150-650K.

Finally, with better data now, people seem to be acknowledging that the 1-3MM death scenarios with 50% infection rates of the overall population are not realistic with even modest interventions, let alone what we've been doing. It's not that those estimates were "wrong" it's more that they had some flawed assumptions of how many would get infected and didn't include interventions, but these doomsday scenarios were at least effective in raising awareness of how bad things could theoretically get if we did nothing, treating it like the flu.

No matter what, though, even after we see the peak and decline over the next 6 weeks, we'll still need to be vigilant to hotspots and stamp them out, like China and South Korea continue to do with 50-100 new cases per day, meaning we're still going to need testing, tracing, quarantining and some level of social distancing (I'd say just wear masks) even after any "relaxation" in our interventions. At least until we have viable treatments (antibody therapy or drugs or eventually a vaccine).

https://news.trust.org/item/20200326232240-2yx1f

Summary: UW projected death rate/total estimes are 81,000 US deaths, with a low/high range of 40-160K, 10K NY deaths, with a range of 5-27K, and 4100 NJ deaths with a range of about 2-10K. Fauci chimed in earlier today that he expected to see 100-200K US deaths. My estimates from last week were 35-170K with an expected value around 85K. All of these are far lower than the 1-3MM worst case numbers we've been seeing, which is good, although those numbers are still greater than the flu (especially the hospitalization/ICU rates). All of these assume continued (and even improved) interventions, like testing, quarantining and social distancing.

Details: So the University of Washington updated their national projections (including the expected values and high and low ranges around the expected values) for deaths and hospitalizations over time from the virus evolution, assuming interventions stay in place and added links for projections for individual states, too. Their national projections didn't change much vs. the numbers I quoted on Friday (above), but it's good to see the state projections and as many have noted, NY is at least a week ahead of NJ with the hospitalization peak being predicted on 4/6 in NY and on 4/11.

They also project total hospitalizations, ICUs and ventilators needed and look at potential bed/ICU-ventilator shortfalls, but I think their assumptions on what the states have are flawed (certainly for NY vs. what Cuomo has said - they only list NY with 4000 ventilators, which is what they had to start, but they have 15,000 now), so I'm only showing the death data below for the US, NY an NJ. The bottom line is they're predicting 81,000 US deaths, with a low/high range of 40-160K, 10K NY deaths, with a range of 5-27K, and 4100 NJ deaths with a range of about 2-10K. See the graphics below.

http://www.healthdata.org/research-...-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

In addition, Dr. Fauci and the feds are predicting fairly similar numbers of 100-200K deaths as compared to the UW folks. And these are "similar" in that nobody is now predicting the 1-3MM US deaths that were being predicted not long ago when there were no interventions in place and it was thought 50-70% of the population would become infected. Both the UW and Fauci numbers are also reasonably similar to what I posted on Thursday (post linked below). I've been on the low side of predictions for quite some time and have worried about underselling the risks. For what it's worth, my estimates, generated in a very different way, were an expected 85K deaths in the US with a low end estimate of 35K and a high end of 170K.

One last comment. All of these more recent death projections are still much greater than a typical flu season of 35K deaths (although 35K is about the low end of the range of projections) and every scenario has far more hospitalizations/ICU-ventilators needed than the flu. They also assume that maybe only 1-2% of the population becomes infected (unless far more are infected but asymptomatic, which we need massive antibody testing to determine), meaning interventions will need to be kept in place until we have treatments (either drugs or the plasma-antibody-infusion technology now/soon or the engineered antibody technology by late summer or a true vaccine in 12 months). Which likely means we won't have any public gatherings until some sort of treatment is in place, including any sporting events, which would suck as this is still an RU sports board.

https://abc7ny.com/health/dr-fauci-...rP7kig0ksbJXajYOoyh6yw7db3OoQftKWIQhaHiO4KIew

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-36#post-4471448

As the White House looks for ways to restore normalcy in parts of the U.S., the government's foremost infection disease expert says the country could experience more than 100,000 deaths and millions of infections from the coronavirus pandemic.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, speaking on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday, offered his prognosis as the federal government weighs rolling back guidelines on social distancing in areas that have not been as hard-hit by the outbreak at the conclusion of the nationwide 15-day effort to slow the spread of the virus.

"I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases," he said, correcting himself to say he meant deaths. "We're going to have millions of cases." But he added "I don't want to be held to that" because the pandemic is "such a moving target."

About 125,000 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. had been recorded as of Sunday morning, with over 2,100 dead. It is certain that many more have the disease but their cases have not been reported.



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We'll... assuming you will procure a resupply of necessities at some point, there has to be a transfer of items, from Point A ( the source) to Point B (you), and those items could carry the virus and present an exposure. That 6-foot recommendation is a minimum, too. More is better.

I am good for 3 weeks. If everyone didn’t go to grocery store or order out we’d be done with this.
 
Sad response from GM and another reason why Trump needs to hold their feet to the fire. GM is promising 1000 new ventilators a week by the end of April, which will likely be way too late for most states, with many already starting to clamor that they're going to run out too (not just NY), which is why this always had to be a Federally led effort. While UK's Dyson, the vacuum company, is planning to deliver 10,000 ventilators by early April. This shouldn't be that hard to do.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/tech/dyson-ventilators-coronavirus/index.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...trump-invokes-defense-production-act-n1170881
 
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Is there any chance the current test kits are picking up non-COVID19 coronaviruses in their positive results?
 
Two data points showing a flattening of the US curve. Hopefully it is good data.
Doubtful. Only NY and maybe now NJ have been testing aggressively. NY is looking like it's positive case rate is finally leveling off around 7000 or so new cases per day, but NY is 1-2 weeks ahead of most states and most states aren't doing nearly enough testing. Familiar story. Woefully unprepared.
 
Summary: UW projected death rate/total estimes are 81,000 US deaths, with a low/high range of 40-160K, 10K NY deaths, with a range of 5-27K, and 4100 NJ deaths with a range of about 2-10K. Fauci chimed in earlier today that he expected to see 100-200K US deaths. My estimates from last week were 35-170K with an expected value around 85K. All of these are far lower than the 1-3MM worst case numbers we've been seeing, which is good, although those numbers are still greater than the flu (especially the hospitalization/ICU rates). All of these assume continued (and even improved) interventions, like testing, quarantining and social distancing.

Details: So the University of Washington updated their national projections (including the expected values and high and low ranges around the expected values) for deaths and hospitalizations over time from the virus evolution, assuming interventions stay in place and added links for projections for individual states, too. Their national projections didn't change much vs. the numbers I quoted on Friday (above), but it's good to see the state projections and as many have noted, NY is at least a week ahead of NJ with the hospitalization peak being predicted on 4/6 in NY and on 4/11.

They also project total hospitalizations, ICUs and ventilators needed and look at potential bed/ICU-ventilator shortfalls, but I think their assumptions on what the states have are flawed (certainly for NY vs. what Cuomo has said - they only list NY with 4000 ventilators, which is what they had to start, but they have 15,000 now), so I'm only showing the death data below for the US, NY an NJ. The bottom line is they're predicting 81,000 US deaths, with a low/high range of 40-160K, 10K NY deaths, with a range of 5-27K, and 4100 NJ deaths with a range of about 2-10K. See the graphics below.

http://www.healthdata.org/research-...-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths

In addition, Dr. Fauci and the feds are predicting fairly similar numbers of 100-200K deaths as compared to the UW folks. And these are "similar" in that nobody is now predicting the 1-3MM US deaths that were being predicted not long ago when there were no interventions in place and it was thought 50-70% of the population would become infected. Both the UW and Fauci numbers are also reasonably similar to what I posted on Thursday (post linked below). I've been on the low side of predictions for quite some time and have worried about underselling the risks. For what it's worth, my estimates, generated in a very different way, were an expected 85K deaths in the US with a low end estimate of 35K and a high end of 170K.

One last comment. All of these more recent death projections are still much greater than a typical flu season of 35K deaths (although 35K is about the low end of the range of projections) and every scenario has far more hospitalizations/ICU-ventilators needed than the flu. They also assume that maybe only 1-2% of the population becomes infected (unless far more are infected but asymptomatic, which we need massive antibody testing to determine), meaning interventions will need to be kept in place until we have treatments (either drugs or the plasma-antibody-infusion technology now/soon or the engineered antibody technology by late summer or a true vaccine in 12 months). Which likely means we won't have any public gatherings until some sort of treatment is in place, including any sporting events, which would suck as this is still an RU sports board.

https://abc7ny.com/health/dr-fauci-...rP7kig0ksbJXajYOoyh6yw7db3OoQftKWIQhaHiO4KIew

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...social-distancing.191275/page-36#post-4471448

As the White House looks for ways to restore normalcy in parts of the U.S., the government's foremost infection disease expert says the country could experience more than 100,000 deaths and millions of infections from the coronavirus pandemic.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, speaking on CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday, offered his prognosis as the federal government weighs rolling back guidelines on social distancing in areas that have not been as hard-hit by the outbreak at the conclusion of the nationwide 15-day effort to slow the spread of the virus.

"I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 cases," he said, correcting himself to say he meant deaths. "We're going to have millions of cases." But he added "I don't want to be held to that" because the pandemic is "such a moving target."

About 125,000 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. had been recorded as of Sunday morning, with over 2,100 dead. It is certain that many more have the disease but their cases have not been reported.



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In the category of "things aren't always as bad as they look," while the US is now leading the world in cases (since the Chinese have likely under-reported by 5-10X), a better measure in comparing countries is always to do so on a per capita (population) basis. Those graphs show the US in the middle of the pack in cases per capita. Somewhat similar comparison for deaths, where we're doing much better on a per capita basis than on an absolute basis - although those data are misleading, as we're on the early part of the curve and deaths lag cases by 2-4 weeks, so ours will go up significantly still.

Still not great, but not yet catastrophic either which I think it aligns with the message in the quoted post above, that things are about to get worse, here, and especially across the rest of the country, but if we can maintain our interventions and even improve on them we can hopefully get through this wave without catastrophically overwhelming our medical systems (but it's likely going to be a close call for many and we'll likely see some cases of that). That remains to be seen, especially with the very weak Federal leadership we've seen to date on testing, quarantining/tracing, social distancing, etc (it's been mostly states driving things). These graphs are all from the link below, which has some great tools.

https://covidly.com/graph#total

g8BPoaU.png

ov94gyf.png

LnBH7yL.png

l2d3KqJ.png
 
In the category of "things aren't always as bad as they look," while the US is now leading the world in cases (since the Chinese have likely under-reported by 5-10X), a better measure in comparing countries is always to do so on a per capita (population) basis. Those graphs show the US in the middle of the pack in cases per capita. Somewhat similar comparison for deaths, where we're doing much better on a per capita basis than on an absolute basis - although those data are misleading, as we're on the early part of the curve and deaths lag cases by 2-4 weeks, so ours will go up significantly still.

Still not great, but not yet catastrophic either which I think it aligns with the message in the quoted post above, that things are about to get worse, here, and especially across the rest of the country, but if we can maintain our interventions and even improve on them we can hopefully get through this wave without catastrophically overwhelming our medical systems (but it's likely going to be a close call for many and we'll likely see some cases of that). That remains to be seen, especially with the very weak Federal leadership we've seen to date on testing, quarantining/tracing, social distancing, etc (it's been mostly states driving things). These graphs are all from the link below, which has some great tools.

https://covidly.com/graph#total

g8BPoaU.png

ov94gyf.png

LnBH7yL.png

l2d3KqJ.png
Love the graphics, but until the underlying data is more accurate, it's just a bunch of neat line drawings. How many people are being turned away at testing centers? How many call their doctors or a covid hotline and are told, if you're not feeling too crappy, just stay home? Assuming a 20% infection rate of these thousands of people, or numbers could be much higher in a heartbeat. Then, assume these undiagnosed, untested carriers spread to their 2-3 people, this damn shutdown will have to continue way longer than it really needed to.
 
Is there any chance the current test kits are picking up non-COVID19 coronaviruses in their positive results?
From what I've read, no. SARS/MERS aren't circulating and the rest (like the common cold) are more different from CV2 and easy to differentiate.
 
Doubtful. Only NY and maybe now NJ have been testing aggressively. NY is looking like it's positive case rate is finally leveling off around 7000 or so new cases per day, but NY is 1-2 weeks ahead of most states and most states aren't doing nearly enough testing. Familiar story. Woefully unprepared.

I suppose we need to get past more of the densely populated areas. Obviously NYC is a big one.

so you are saying I am getting fooled a second time.
 
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