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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Thanks I never saw any follow ups on the news or even on this thread. It just was strange as quickly as it manifested itself it just as rapidly became a no story. So I guess the initial panic was unwarranted.

I wouldn't say that. Without treatment many of those kids could have died, and even with it, some of the kids have diabities, or other conidtions that they previously didn't have. In terms of fataltiies though much better.

Bob - not quite sure what your question is. I posted links to two studies on MIS-C (multisymptom inflammatory syndrome in children) at the end of June (linked below) and there have been a host of publications on MIS-C since then.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-219#post-4621806

Just a couple of weeks ago an excellent editorial was published in the New England Journal of Medicine on MIS-C. As noted, it's pretty rare, but serious with hospitalization usually required and a small % of deaths observed. There are some who have said it's simply the childhood version of the inflammatory cytokine storm seen in older patients and responsible for a large % of deaths in older patients.

My guess is some of what's gone on is that early in the pandemic, it looked like children weren't having serious illnesses or dying and then data came in showing that at least a very small % were becoming quite ill and that possibly some of these cases had been thought to be non-COVID related (Kawasaki's Syndrome), plus, right or wrong, when children become very ill or die, it seems to be a bigger story than when this happens to the elderly.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2023158?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article

Greg - not sure what "treatment" you're referring to. Anything more you can share? The articles I've seen and the editorial above make it sound like children with MIS-C are treated fairly similarly to adults with cytokine storm over-inflammation. I'm not sure we have had enough MIS-C patients to have done any controlled trials to know what might be effective, as per the commentary in the editorial, below.

The challenges of this new condition will now be to understand its pathophysiological mechanisms, to develop diagnostics, and to define the best treatment. Most patients to date have been treated with agents that have shown benefit in Kawasaki’s disease or other inflammatory disorders; thus, trials are needed to establish the appropriate therapy.
 
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tl; dr
but fyi the article was posted July 8th
Yes, but it stated it was a re-posting of an article from June 10th

Note: The original article was published in the Swiss magazine Weltwoche (World Week) on June 10th. The author, Beda M Stadler is the former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and professor emeritus. Stadler is an important medical professional in Switzerland, he also likes to use provoking language, which should not deter you from the points he makes.
 
Skepticism about the quality of the Minny HCQ studies:

To conduct these studies, the researchers made significant compromises. They could not obtain diagnostic testing for all patients, so included people who had symptoms but couldn’t get a test result. In the end, only 58% of the people in this study had diagnostic test results. The researchers mailed study drug or placebo to patients without examining them after they enrolled over the internet, meaning they used data patients self-reported. In the end, the study randomized 491 patients, 432 of whom contributed data to the final analysis…

“The study was of such low quality that it was fundamentally uninterpretable,” said Steven Nissen, a veteran clinical trialist at the Cleveland Clinic.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16...-against-hydroxychloroquine/?utm_campaign=rss

Even Boulware was somewhat skeptical of his own study, realizing there were limitations, which he detailed in his study and acknowledged we could use additional clinical data on post-exposure prophylaxis with HCQ. Fortunately, as per my post, below, a much better study with most of those limitations (medical oversight of patients, having actual PCR tests on patients, larger numbers, etc.) being addressed, was conducted in Spain and it also showed no efficacy for HCQ in post-exposure prophylaxis.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-160#post-4604734

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-146#post-4594440

Let's add the most persuasive study we've yet seen on post-exposure prophylaxis to the studies that unequivocally show HCQ is ineffective in hospitalized patients with moderate to severe COVID, as well as the very convincing, highly controlled macaque studies, showing no preventative or treatment benefit at all from HCQ. Below is the link to and an excerpt from the Spanish study referred to in the link above, which is a better, more complete study than the Boulware study (U of MN, also linked above) which came out in June.

This fairly large (1198 in the control group and 1116 in the HCQ group) randomized, controlled (but open label) study clearly showed that HCQ was ineffective, as per their conclusions: "Post-exposure therapy with HCQ did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 disease and infection in healthy individuals exposed to a PCR-positive case. Our findings do not support HCQ as postexposure 72 prophylaxis for Covid-19."

It also addressed some of the weaknesses in the Boulware study, including doing all of the following, which were not done for that study: PCR tests of all enrolled patients at the start, PCR test confirmation of all suspected infections that developed during the study, and PCR tests/antibody tests of all patients on Day 14. Every patient was visited at home on Day 1 and Day 14 and phone interviewed in-between to assess symptoms/compliance.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20157651v1.full.pdf

Results: The analysis included 2,314 healthy contacts of 672 Covid-19 index cases identified between Mar 17 and Apr 28, 2020. A total of 1,198 were randomly allocated to usual care and 1,116 to HCQ therapy. There was no significant difference in the primary outcome of PCR-confirmed, symptomatic Covid-19 disease (6.2% usual care vs. 5.7% HCQ; risk ratio 0.89 [95% confidence interval 0.54-1.46]), nor evidence of beneficial effects on prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (17.8% usual care vs. 18.7% HCQ).
 
Bob - not quite sure what your question is. I posted links to two studies on MIS-C (multisymptom inflammatory syndrome in children) at the end of June (linked below) and there have been a host of publications on MIS-C since then.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-219#post-4621806

Just a couple of weeks ago an excellent editorial was published in the New England Journal of Medicine on MIS-C. As noted, it's pretty rare, but serious with hospitalization usually required and a small % of deaths observed. There are some who have said it's simply the childhood version of the inflammatory cytokine storm seen in older patients and responsible for a large % of deaths in older patients.

My guess is some of what's gone on is that early in the pandemic, it looked like children weren't having serious illnesses or dying and then data came in showing that at least a very small % were becoming quite ill and that possibly some of these cases had been thought to be non-COVID related (Kawasaki's Syndrome), plus, right or wrong, when children become very ill or die, it seems to be a bigger story than when this happens to the elderly.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2023158?query=recirc_curatedRelated_article

Greg - not sure what "treatment" you're referring to. Anything more you can share? The articles I've seen and the editorial above make it sound like children with MIS-C are treated fairly similarly to adults with cytokine storm over-inflammation. I'm not sure we have had enough MIS-C patients to have done any controlled trials to know what might be effective, as per the commentary in the editorial, below.

The challenges of this new condition will now be to understand its pathophysiological mechanisms, to develop diagnostics, and to define the best treatment. Most patients to date have been treated with agents that have shown benefit in Kawasaki’s disease or other inflammatory disorders; thus, trials are needed to establish the appropriate therapy.
Yes, treated with similar things to adults with cytokine storm, blood thinners to prevent strokes, and monitoring the kids in the hospital for various issues that may arise. The initial problem was these kids were at home with symptoms that were believed to not be covid related, and thus many parents did not bring them in, and for those who did have a bad reaction in some cases it got pretty bad it seems.
 
So my coworkers daughter who is about 6 months old tested positive. She is fine thankfully. The Dr told her parents that both of them should isolate and probably have it as well. A few days later they both felt sick. Now around three weeks later my coworker can’t come back to work unless he has a negative test. He has clear go ahead to return to work from Dept of Health he said. He told them he needs a negative test to return even though he is symptom free and it’s been three weeks. They said he can test positive for up to 12 weeks. Well he took a test on Monday and got results today and is positive but he’s fine. He’s still unable to return until a negative test is the outcome. Dr even told him he may still test positive for up to 12 weeks. Dr also told him to eat healthy and exercise. He is not overweight but just good practice. This testing is such a joke it has become!
His wife’s friend who works in the ICU dealing with Covid tested positive in March she felt fine. She had another test in July and tested positive again. Makes no sense.
To me it sounds like too many mixed signals...advice... positive ,negative, positive. In other words once you have it you could have it forever... therefore why not just come out and say you need to shelter in your homes forever... oh and for the test positive for up to 12 weeks ...why only 12 why not 52...this is the exact reason people are fed up.
 
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Yes, treated with similar things to adults with cytokine storm, blood thinners to prevent strokes, and monitoring the kids in the hospital for various issues that may arise. The initial problem was these kids were at home with symptoms that were believed to not be covid related, and thus many parents did not bring them in, and for those who did have a bad reaction in some cases it got pretty bad it seems.
There have been hundreds of articles on the board by you and others my friend . I was asking a question since I had not seen all of them regarding the Kawasaki Disease (similar) and how much more has been learned. The question then is why did this not make mainstream news outlets that these treatments were helping these kids.
 
Yes, treated with similar things to adults with cytokine storm, blood thinners to prevent strokes, and monitoring the kids in the hospital for various issues that may arise. The initial problem was these kids were at home with symptoms that were believed to not be covid related, and thus many parents did not bring them in, and for those who did have a bad reaction in some cases it got pretty bad it seems.
Well that is a state and federal mistake... not telling parents if your child exhibits these symptoms notify doctor...or go to an emergency / urgent care is not very bright... then ask where do we go for help...
 
There have been hundreds of articles on the board by you and others my friend . I was asking a question since I had not seen all of them regarding the Kawasaki Disease (similar) and how much more has been learned. The question then is why did this not make mainstream news outlets that these treatments were helping these kids.
I saw it on cnn that treatments were helping.
 
Well that is a state and federal mistake... not telling parents if your child exhibits these symptoms notify doctor...or go to an emergency / urgent care is not very bright... then ask where do we go for help...
They did them to after they realized it. You can't tell people what you don't know.
 
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Even Boulware was somewhat skeptical of his own study, realizing there were limitations, which he detailed in his study and acknowledged we could use additional clinical data on post-exposure prophylaxis with HCQ. Fortunately, as per my post, below, a much better study with most of those limitations (medical oversight of patients, having actual PCR tests on patients, larger numbers, etc.) being addressed, was conducted in Spain and it also showed no efficacy for HCQ in post-exposure prophylaxis.
I can't read through the ~25 pg report now, so I need to ask: did this Spanish study include HCQ + azithromycin /zinc combo therapies?
 
Numbers was ABSOLUTE in his opinion on HCQ. The MSM was atrocious with their fear mongering that it can kill you. Purely a political stance. While Trump may not have been right to push it, the violent absolute reaction from some was the issue here. Some doctors have had success with it, they are on the front lines

I've never been absolute on anything that I know of (it's why I constantly talk about uncertainty and probability in my weather posts; less so here, as I already type enough words, but there's large uncertainties in clinical trials and all results are always posted probabilistically, i.e, with p-ratios). I was one of the first 2-3 people to post about the potential of HCQ when the first reports from France came out. I was quite excited for about a day, until people more expert than I am started pointing out the flaws in the Raoult study (which was later completely discredited) and until I saw the full-on hucksterism going on by people like Rigano calling it a cure and Trump calling it a gamechanger (Presidents should never be weighing in with clinical commentary without checking with their scientific advisers first, who disagreed with his comments). That was pretty unseemly behavior, IMO, but not the reason I've been skeptical of HCQ and why that skepticism has grown considerably - that's all due to the science.

After the initial news on HCQ, many started using it and the observational (not controlled) clinical trials began rolling in with some showing modest efficacy and many showing none, which is what will often happen in poorly controlled studies for an ineffective drug. But it took the results from the well run randomized/controlled (RCT, the gold standard in clinical trials) Recovery trial in hospitalized patients to close the door on efficacy in those patients, for me. And there's now been a follow-up in similar patients in an RCT in Brazil, which also showed no efficacy (it also had an HCQ/Azithromycin arm).

The Boulware post-exposure prophylaxis study certainly didn't look good for efficacy in that application, but it wasn't the strongest study (even though it was an RCT), so I didn't become convinced that these people wouldn't benefit from HCQ until seeing the much stronger RCT study from Spain, which showed no benefit. Boulware also did a pre-exposure prophylaxis RCT study that showed no benefit from HCQ.

I'm not aware of any randomized, controlled trial with HCQ or any combo of HCQ showing a clinical benefit - if you know of one, please fill us in - if we had some, I'd certainly have to revisit my thinking on this. I also haven't been fear-mongering about HCQ killing people, although some of the trials have showed side effects (including cardiovascular risks) - my issue is it simply hasn't shown efficacy.

Lastly, the HCQ+Az+Zn "study" by Zelenko was perhaps the worst piece of crap I've ever seen. He claimed it was an observationally controlled study, but shared no data on the non-HCQ patient population, making it a useless study, which will never be published. It's always possible this combo works, but it seems very unlikely and this "study" does nothing to convince anyone it might work.
 
I can't read through the ~25 pg report now, so I need to ask: did this Spanish study include HCQ + azithromycin /zinc combo therapies?
So it doesn't look like any HCQ+ combo was tested after glancing through the report:

TRIAL PROCEDURES

Participants allocated in the control arm 126 received no treatment aside from usual care, whereas those in the intervention arm received HCQ (Dolquine® 127 ) 800 mg on day 1, followed by 400 mg once daily for six days. The dose and regimen of HCQ 128 were chosen based on pharmacokinetic simulations to achieve plasma and lung concentrations above the SARS-CoV-2 half-maximal effective concentration observed in-vitro11 129 for 14 days (details provided in 130 the Study Protocol).
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.20.20157651v1.full.pdf
 
I can't read through the ~25 pg report now, so I need to ask: did this Spanish study include HCQ + azithromycin /zinc combo therapies?
No and I never said it did. The original Raoult study was just with HCQ/Az (no zinc), so many studies have been run with HCQ or HCQ/Az, plus many people are touting the highly flawed Ford study as showing that HCQ/Az (without zinc) reduced mortality, so most HCQ advocates are not insisting Zn is critical, if they believe the flawed Ford study. It's a horribly designed study whose conclusions are completely confounded by not controlling the control arm vs. HCQ (75% on HCQ got steroids and only 25% not on HCQ! and steroids have been shown in an RCT to reduce mortality) and was not an randomized controlled trial (RCT.) Take a look at Fauci's assessment of that study in his testimony. Like he said, show us an RCT that shows an HCQ or HCQ/combo benefit and we're all ears. Haven't seen it yet.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4897098/user-clip-dr-fauci-efficacy-hydroxychloroquine-zinc
 
Are the super spreaders asymptomatic?
I don't know the details and I'm not even sure how contagious asymptomatic people are, but I did hear Gottlieb say that a person is most contagious .7 days prior to showing symptoms.
 
No and I never said it did. The original Raoult study was just with HCQ/Az (no zinc), so many studies have been run with HCQ or HCQ/Az, plus many people are touting the highly flawed Ford study as showing that HCQ/Az (without zinc) reduced mortality, so most HCQ advocates are not insisting Zn is critical, if they believe the flawed Ford study. It's a horribly designed study whose conclusions are completely confounded by not controlling the control arm vs. HCQ (75% on HCQ got steroids and only 25% not on HCQ! and steroids have been shown in an RCT to reduce mortality) and was not an randomized controlled trial (RCT.) Take a look at Fauci's assessment of that study in his testimony. Like he said, show us an RCT that shows an HCQ or HCQ/combo benefit and we're all ears. Haven't seen it yet.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4897098/user-clip-dr-fauci-efficacy-hydroxychloroquine-zinc
The Hatfill article I posted above sure makes me wonder why large scale quality RCTs with HCQ+combos have not been done. I'll take Fauci's advice with a grain of salt at this point.
 
No and I never said it did. The original Raoult study was just with HCQ/Az (no zinc), so many studies have been run with HCQ or HCQ/Az, plus many people are touting the highly flawed Ford study as showing that HCQ/Az (without zinc) reduced mortality, so most HCQ advocates are not insisting Zn is critical, if they believe the flawed Ford study. It's a horribly designed study whose conclusions are completely confounded by not controlling the control arm vs. HCQ (75% on HCQ got steroids and only 25% not on HCQ! and steroids have been shown in an RCT to reduce mortality) and was not an randomized controlled trial (RCT.) Take a look at Fauci's assessment of that study in his testimony. Like he said, show us an RCT that shows an HCQ or HCQ/combo benefit and we're all ears. Haven't seen it yet.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4897098/user-clip-dr-fauci-efficacy-hydroxychloroquine-zinc
Without those studies what do you think of the mortality rates in countries that have prior widespread HCQ use such as India? Or the spike in fatalities in Switzerland that came a couple weeks after HCQ use was stopped, but then flattened a couple weeks after it was reintroduced?
 
One country that began issuing HCQ to everyone in the early stages of this disease is Turkey and they've done very well with their # of deaths. They have roughly the same population as Germany who everyone acknowledges has done great with this virus and probably has superior health care to Turkey. Turkey's # of cases is approximately 20,000 higher but their # of deaths are more than 30% less than Germany. (These #'s are from Worldometer)
 
One country that began issuing HCQ to everyone in the early stages of this disease is Turkey and they've done very well with their # of deaths. They have roughly the same population as Germany who everyone acknowledges has done great with this virus and probably has superior health care to Turkey. Turkey's # of cases is approximately 20,000 higher but their # of deaths are more than 30% less than Germany. (These #'s are from Worldometer)
If I get the chicomvirus and my doctor recommends HCQ+ while I'm in that early 7-day window....back-up the truck guys.
 
Both of my parents had covid19 in May. Both are in their mid 80's with numerous other conditions. Both were hospitalized. Both were given HCQ. Both recovered within 10 days with no serious symptoms.

Full disclosure - both are already on blood thinners for other conditions. This may have helped their speedy recoveries as well???

Purely anecdotal, but there it is.
 
Yeah, after being republished following the initial June release.
Yes, but it stated it was a re-posting of an article from June 10th

Note: The original article was published in the Swiss magazine Weltwoche (World Week) on June 10th. The author, Beda M Stadler is the former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and professor emeritus. Stadler is an important medical professional in Switzerland, he also likes to use provoking language, which should not deter you from the points he makes.
Ah I see. Presumably the author didn't have a need for any updates.
 
I wonder who here would not, and why not.
I had the virus and asked my doctor about it. He wouldn't prescribe it, saying it's only being given to people in the hospital as a last resort. A physician relative took it after testing positive and said he felt better by day 3 of taking it. I was worsening after 2 weeks and he prescribed it to me - I began improving by day 3. I believe it worked for me but there's no proof of it because the virus may have just run it's course. Antiviral medication needs to be given early to prevent a virus from infesting the body. Administering it as a last resort when a person has a foot in the grave makes no sense. (edit - I took HCQ with zinc for those interested)
 
So my coworkers daughter who is about 6 months old tested positive. She is fine thankfully. The Dr told her parents that both of them should isolate and probably have it as well. A few days later they both felt sick. Now around three weeks later my coworker can’t come back to work unless he has a negative test. He has clear go ahead to return to work from Dept of Health he said. He told them he needs a negative test to return even though he is symptom free and it’s been three weeks. They said he can test positive for up to 12 weeks. Well he took a test on Monday and got results today and is positive but he’s fine. He’s still unable to return until a negative test is the outcome. Dr even told him he may still test positive for up to 12 weeks. Dr also told him to eat healthy and exercise. He is not overweight but just good practice. This testing is such a joke it has become!
His wife’s friend who works in the ICU dealing with Covid tested positive in March she felt fine. She had another test in July and tested positive again. Makes no sense.
Pretty sure CDC changed the guidelines for going back to work. Don’t think you need a negative test anymore. Companies might want it but don’t think it’s required anymore.
 
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Pretty sure CDC changed the guidelines for going back to work. Don’t think you need a negative test anymore. Companies might want it but don’t think it’s required anymore.

Yeah it was corporate that wanted the negative test not the jobsite he is going back too. He is still getting paid it just sucks for him because he would rather be working. IMO the whole testing for this is flawed
 
A while back I told everyone about my buddy who was very sick and was waiting for the results of his Covid-19 test, I had dinner (and lots of Sangria) with him last night and he filled me in, when the test came back it was negative and his doctor couldn't believe it, she was sure it was the virus, had him tested again and same result - negative.

She was at a dead end so she asked him if they could draw enough blood to test for everything, he submitted and he said they drew 6 vials of blood from him.

Result - Lyme Disease
 
A while back I told everyone about my buddy who was very sick and was waiting for the results of his Covid-19 test, I had dinner (and lots of Sangria) with him last night and he filled me in, when the test came back it was negative and his doctor couldn't believe it, she was sure it was the virus, had him tested again and same result - negative.

She was at a dead end so she asked him if they could draw enough blood to test for everything, he submitted and he said they drew 6 vials of blood from him.

Result - Lyme Disease

Hopefully they didn't waste too much time with Covid tests. Lyme disease is best treated quickly.
 
Hopefully they didn't waste too much time with Covid tests. Lyme disease is best treated quickly.
I think he might have been better off if it was the virus, you don't want to be stuck with Lyme Disease, there is a WNBA player who has to take over 60 pills a day to battle it and people I know who have had it have not had an easy time with it either.
 
I think he might have been better off if it was the virus, you don't want to be stuck with Lyme Disease, there is a WNBA player who has to take over 60 pills a day to battle it and people I know who have had it have not had an easy time with it either.

Yeah, possibly the worse outcome but hopefully not. I got it a decade ago but was pretty mild, ran through the medication and was fine after.
 
One country that began issuing HCQ to everyone in the early stages of this disease is Turkey and they've done very well with their # of deaths. They have roughly the same population as Germany who everyone acknowledges has done great with this virus and probably has superior health care to Turkey. Turkey's # of cases is approximately 20,000 higher but their # of deaths are more than 30% less than Germany. (These #'s are from Worldometer)
I think that India, on the surface, does kind of look like it is a potential HCQ positive example.

But when we look deeper we see that India didn't have an initial spike, but instead has been on a very steady uptick in cases since very early on and has just yesterday topped 60K new cases for the first time. Their deaths have been tracking a pretty similar path and just yesterday posted 900 new deaths for the first time.

Now if we follow the 3 week lag rule of thumb we see that India's current 900 deaths relates back to 34,000 cases on July 17. Which equates to a 2.3 deaths to 100 documented cases ratio. The US's current 3 week lag death to documented case ratio is 1.4 to 100.

So I think India's success thus far might be a bit misleading, I think it is very likely that they will be the world leader in daily fatalities very soon, and will likely stay there for awhile.
 
An Effective COVID Treatment the Media Continues to Besmirch




...There are now 53 studies that show positive results of hydroxychloroquine in COVID infections. There are 14 global studies that show neutral or negative results -- and 10 of them were of patients in very late stages of COVID-19, where no antiviral drug can be expected to have much effect. Of the remaining four studies, two come from the same University of Minnesota author. The other two are from the faulty Brazil paper, which should be retracted, and the fake Lancet paper, which was.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...t_the_media_continues_to_besmirch_143875.html
 
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An Effective COVID Treatment the Media Continues to Besmirch




...There are now 53 studies that show positive results of hydroxychloroquine in COVID infections. There are 14 global studies that show neutral or negative results -- and 10 of them were of patients in very late stages of COVID-19, where no antiviral drug can be expected to have much effect. Of the remaining four studies, two come from the same University of Minnesota author. The other two are from the faulty Brazil paper, which should be retracted, and the fake Lancet paper, which was.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...t_the_media_continues_to_besmirch_143875.html
We've been discussing this one for a couple days now.
 
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