COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Barnaby&Neill

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The South Koreans did what Trump did but nobody was calling the South Korean experts Snake Oil salesmen or critcizing their decision to recommened it as a treatment.

Yes it was for the most part anecdotal but it was early in the Pandemic and wasnt any time to wait for RCTs. Safe Cheap and available give it a shot.
Well, in April a major South Korean study found it wasn’t effective; and in June they officially advised dropping HCQ as a treatment.

On July 28, Trump called it a cure — and to this day still exemplifies confirmation bias by retweeting any one with a medical background who supports his conclusion.

So regardless of what South Korea did, or what Trump attempted to do in March—going back to my original post—we are debating it to this day because our President, who is totally unqualified to speak on the subject, continues to need validation...and as a result a group of Americans are loyal to a pharmaceutical molecule that at best is inferior to other treatment alternatives.
 

RUJohnny

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The whole HCQ thing has been fascinating to watch. The studies don't seem to show much if any effectiveness, though until a "proper" study with zinc (since everyone seems to think that's important) is done looking at the impact for early stage disease, there will be questions. Maybe that study has been done and I missed it - entirely possible since I haven't been following this stuff as closely as I was a few months ago.

Interestingly one of the biggest proponents of HCQ (Martenson) is now touting a new cure being pushed by a doctor in Australia. Apparently the same guy who came up with the "triple antibiotic" treatment for ulcers, now he has a "triple therapy" for covid which includes ivermectin, zinc and doxycycline. Martenson has been talking about HCQ and ivermectin for months and shows no signs of letting up. It would be nice if that combination is shown to be effective.

Anyway - was wondering if people here have any plans in place in the event you come down with covid? Are you going to ask your doctor for HCQ, just ride it out and hope for the best, or do something else? A couple of months ago I would have been asking for HCQ (though I don't think my doctor would have prescribed it). Now...not so sure. My plan is to follow the EVMS treatment protocol for at home symptomatic patients. That includes vitamin D (already on), quercetin, zinc, vitamin C (current full protocol is in the link below). I don't have any significant risk factors that I'm aware of (not overweight, no diabetes or known heart disease, etc), but am getting up in age (58).

Current EVMS Covid Protocol
my Covid era immune boost cocktail has been quercetin, zinc, lions mane mushroom extract, oil of oregano, and colloidal silver.
 
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ArminRU

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Only 186 new cases in Arizona today. Looking at their curve, and some other states, the trend looks to be that it takes about 2-3 months to get things under control. It’s like steering the Titanic not a canoe. Once Covid takes off, really hard to contain it again. You can see why locations shut things down hard at the first sign of an outbreak. Who wants to deal with 3 months of misery when you can get things on track after a few weeks?
 

RUBOB72

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Even if and when a vaccine becomes available the virus is here now for many years just like the flu ....we have had vaccines for the flu but not everyone is vaccinated that and the vaccines aren’t 100% not even 90% some years... the thread has become obsolete for many posters as you can see by who is continuously posting... most don’t bother since it has been overdone.
 
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Greg2020

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Are you saying Hawaii is doing well? Hawaii is not doing well especially Oahu... The governor closed it down until around September 15 , 2020... the people are fed up with the double standards of who can open ...who can’t open... no indoor dining again yet water parks and gyms were able to stay open... sorry but they were nearing hospital limits several days ago.
Hawaii has the lowest death RATE for any state in the entire country from covid. Far lower than even Alaska who is second lowest.
 
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The South Koreans did what Trump did but nobody was calling the South Korean experts Snake Oil salesmen or critcizing their decision to recommened it as a treatment.

Yes it was for the most part anecdotal but it was early in the Pandemic and wasnt any time to wait for RCTs. Safe Cheap and available give it a shot.
It has been suggested that part of the negative response toward HCQ early on was that doctors couldn't get it for their lupus patients. So, like they did with masks, they said HCQ was ineffective.. to affect the market. But unlike with masks, they never reversed this.
 
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LETSGORU91

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how come virus is virusing in place who received accolades for their mask wearing and strict lockdowns
Could you please translate this into English?

Maybe but not proven.
If you don't think asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 is a reality at this point, it's pretty useless to try and explain.

Even if and when a vaccine becomes available the virus is here now for many years just like the flu ....we have had vaccines for the flu but not everyone is vaccinated that and the vaccines aren’t 100% not even 90% some years... the thread has become obsolete for many posters as you can see by who is continuously posting... most don’t bother since it has been overdone.
Flu vaccines don't come anywhere near a 90 to 100% efficacy (success) rate.
 

bethlehemfan

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What’s more likely, the virus dropping off due to social distancing and masking, or the virus going away because it reaches some magical, variable herd immunity?
It’s probably a combination. The people most likely to get it due to behavior or living or work conditions get it and it cycles through that portion of the population conferring immunity to the knuckleheads and unfortunate. The rest of the population either continues to sd or increases their sd with an occasional crossover due to pure chance or a relaxation of sd protocol.
 

bac2therac

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Could you please translate this into English?



If you don't think asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 is a reality at this point, it's pretty useless to try and explain.



Flu vaccines don't come anywhere near a 90 to 100% efficacy (success) rate.

see the one WSJ article for example....IMO virus is happening regardless of masks or no masks...and quite frankly the social distancing stopped when people wear masks, its false sense of protection, I see interactions much closer in stores now than I did back in the spring.

but I did love the freakout by cnn over no masks last night during the convention speech close by Pence....it actually was a situation no different that you might see on a beach...where apparently we dont seem to have any indication of major case spread.
 

gregkoko

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Thought this was interesting. I know that anitgen tests are not as reliable as PCR tests, but an incredibly low cost/quick test could help people feel more comfortable until there's a vaccine in widespread use. For $5 a pop, I know I'll get my family to take it before we get together indoors for the holidays.

@RU848789 thoughts?
 

RUBOB72

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Hawaii has the lowest death RATE for any state in the entire country from covid. Far lower than even Alaska who is second lowest.
Greg this isn’t about DEATH rates it is about the infection rates ... the ability to handle patients with a limited hospital capacity ... For some reason you feel a necessity to defend every position what you believe is either not true or contradictory to what you think... Oahu Hawai’i has just begun having this problem over the past month... but with a population of around 875 k of course the current rate is less... For the time being Ige the Governor has shut it down and people are not happy...
 
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RUBOB72

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Could you please translate this into English?



If you don't think asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 is a reality at this point, it's pretty useless to try and explain.



Flu vaccines don't come anywhere near a 90 to 100% efficacy (success) rate.
I said flu vaccines don’t come anywhere near 100-90 % protection ... and if we get 65-70% that’s probably a fair guess..This will be here a long time and that is a fact.
 
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RU-05

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Does it? Brazil ain’t looking so hot these days.
Brazil'z death graph did plateau while their case graph continued to rise.

I don't know the why, but their graphs are different in that way then every other graph I've looked at. Typically the deaths will follow the case graph with a 1-3 week lag.
 
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RU-05

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I said flu vaccines don’t come anywhere near 100-90 % protection ... and if we get 65-70% that’s probably a fair guess..This will be here a long time and that is a fact.
Isn't the problem with the flu vaccines the numerous strains of the flu they are trying to protect against? (Not to mention the number of people who don't get the vaccine.)

We've kind of heard of different covid strains though I'm not sure how proven that is. But even if there are multiple strains, Covid being a novel virus I doubt there are as many strains as the flu which has been around forever.
 
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Barnaby&Neill

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see the one WSJ article for example....IMO virus is happening regardless of masks or no masks...and quite frankly the social distancing stopped when people wear masks, its false sense of protection, I see interactions much closer in stores now than I did back in the spring.

but I did love the freakout by cnn over no masks last night during the convention speech close by Pence....it actually was a situation no different that you might see on a beach...where apparently we dont seem to have any indication of major case spread.

Social distancing hygiene will erode with or without masks — it takes too much effort to survive beyond people’s initial state of fear and paranoia about the virus.

Since a mask requires almost no effort and can easily be added to normal routines, it is likely to have more staying power into the late rounds of this, and for some people will probably be a habit in perpetuity in certain situations (subway commuters, for example).

If you want 100% effectiveness, and you often complain masks fall short of this threshold, you should be arguing for shelter in place. Otherwise, masks win a cost benefit analysis.
 

RU-05

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Only 186 new cases in Arizona today. Looking at their curve, and some other states, the trend looks to be that it takes about 2-3 months to get things under control. It’s like steering the Titanic not a canoe. Once Covid takes off, really hard to contain it again. You can see why locations shut things down hard at the first sign of an outbreak. Who wants to deal with 3 months of misery when you can get things on track after a few weeks?

You imply it in the rest of your post, but I think it's fair to say that it takes that long if you let it grow to a certain point. If you get to it earlier you can bring it down quicker. We've seen this in past "spikes" in South Korea or more recently in Australia, which has brought it's case # down to 118 as of yesterday, 2.5 weeks after it's 7dma peak of 552.

Now is there some relationship to cases per population, or positivity rate and the time it takes to bring it down? Probably.
 

RUBOB72

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Isn't the problem with the flu vaccines the numerous strains of the flu they are trying to protect against? (Not to mention the number of people who don't get the vaccine.)

We've kind of heard of different covid strains though I'm not sure how proven that is. But even if there are multiple strains, Covid being a novel virus I doubt there are as many strains as the flu which has been around forever.
Sure flu changes every year and attempting to decide which one is going to work is always an educated guess... most years it’s good some years not so good...how many people get the vaccine ? Millions will not get a Covid 19 vaccine if and when that occurs... U
 

RU-05

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Sure flu changes every year and attempting to decide which one is going to work is always an educated guess... most years it’s good some years not so good...how many people get the vaccine ? Millions will not get a Covid 19 vaccine if and when that occurs... U
Aight so let's aside how many people wouldn't get it(interesting though to wonder if more or less people would get it then would get the flu vaccine).

But we can agree that we are not dealing with a large # of strains, thus for that reason it should be more effective(assuming it does prove effective at all) then the flu vacinnes.
 
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ArminRU

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Brazil'z death graph did plateau while their case graph continued to rise.

I don't know the why, but their graphs are different in that way then every other graph I've looked at. Typically the deaths will follow the case graph with a 1-3 week lag.
Im just looking at their deaths per million. It’s high and similar to ours. You would think if it was an effective treatment, they would have more success than us.
 
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RUBOB72

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Aight so let's aside how many people wouldn't get it(interesting though to wonder if more or less people would get it then would get the flu vaccine).

But we can agree that we are not dealing with a large # of strains, thus for that reason it should be more effective(assuming it does prove effective at all) then the flu vacinnes.
Just a layman’s opinion but this virus will not be eradicated ... it will eventually mutate just like others have done... I do believe we can get to a point where deaths are limited and treatments to control severe symptoms are easily treated early on.
 
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Im just looking at their deaths per million. It’s high and similar to ours. You would think if it was an effective treatment, they would have more success than us.
except deaths can be caused by poor access to health care as well. Fewer ventilators, etc. Every country has different infection rates.. there are also different strains out there. You have many doctors out there saying it works if you do it at the right time in combination with other things.. and there are plenty of reasons for them to keep their mouths shut. That speaks to me.
 

ArminRU

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except deaths can be caused by poor access to health care as well. Fewer ventilators, etc. Every country has different infection rates.. there are also different strains out there. You have many doctors out there saying it works if you do it at the right time in combination with other things.. and there are plenty of reasons for them to keep their mouths shut. That speaks to me.
Well the point of HCQ is that it keeps you out of the hospital and off ventilators. Access to HCQ isn’t the problem there.

But it’s all a moot point imo because it seems that most countries have quietly moved away from using it in the first place.
 
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BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine

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There was early anecdotal evidence that HCQ was effective. Trump, always one to sell good news, latched on to it. When evidence contradicted the early anecdotal evidence, he refused to be wrong.

If he had never mentioned it, and btw he has no qualifications whatsoever to justify a position other than “I’ve heard good things” (nor do I), would we even be talking about it?

I can say why I’m anti-HCQ, multiple clinical trials didn’t find a benefit*. To work myself into the other position I have to: (1) put greater belief in anecdotal evidence; (2) believe in some kind of conspiracy?

Why is anyone going through those gymnastics to support a position taken by someone who has no qualifications to opine on the topic in the first place?

*edit: in some cases, didn’t find a benefit that outweighed the risks
Firstly , Trump is relaying what medical consultants are telling him about HCQ--granted there are disagreements-- but nobody with an IQ over 50 is going to assume Dr Donald is prescribing the medicine. And it's perfectly acceptable for the POTUS to use his national platform in the middle of a pandemic to share this information with the public. The Dems and its media arm have politicized it, that is indisputable. As for the "science" vs. "anecedotal" evidence argument, it's hardly a closed scientific case against HCQ.

There are now 53 studies that show positive results of hydroxychloroquine in COVID infections. There are 14 global studies that show neutral or negative results -- and 10 of them were of patients in very late stages of COVID-19, where no antiviral drug can be expected to have much effect. Of the remaining four studies, two come from the same University of Minnesota author. The other two are from the faulty Brazil paper, which should be retracted, and the fake Lancet paper, which was.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...t_the_media_continues_to_besmirch_143875.html
 

RobertG

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Well the point of HCQ is that it keeps you out of the hospital and off ventilators. Access to HCQ isn’t the problem there.

But it’s all a moot point imo because it seems that most countries have quietly moved away from using it in the first place.
I believe Turkey is still using it. This was from 3 weeks ago.

 
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I believe Turkey is still using it. This was from 3 weeks ago.

So there's this huge campaign against use of HCQ.. countries then listen to the "science".. and then that decision to stop using it is used to validate the case against HCQ?

You see, countries stopped using it.. so it doesn't work.

That is just like saying "pushed" poll numbers tell the real story of... well.. anything.
 

Caliknight

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Maryland is quietly blowing up. Lotta asymptomatic cases popping up. Herd immunity is going to happen one way or the other.
 

Greg2020

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Greg this isn’t about DEATH rates it is about the infection rates ... the ability to handle patients with a limited hospital capacity ... For some reason you feel a necessity to defend every position what you believe is either not true or contradictory to what you think... Oahu Hawai’i has just begun having this problem over the past month... but with a population of around 875 k of course the current rate is less... For the time being Ige the Governor has shut it down and people are not happy...
the population has nothing to do with the rate. The death RATE is based on population. AKA a death in Hawaii with 875k = 10 deaths in a state with 8.75 million population as far as rate is concerned. It's a per capita thing.
 

Greg2020

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see the one WSJ article for example....IMO virus is happening regardless of masks or no masks...and quite frankly the social distancing stopped when people wear masks, its false sense of protection, I see interactions much closer in stores now than I did back in the spring.

but I did love the freakout by cnn over no masks last night during the convention speech close by Pence....it actually was a situation no different that you might see on a beach...where apparently we dont seem to have any indication of major case spread.
except virus didn't virus in numerous places throughout the world. You are fake news.
 
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RUBOB72

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the population has nothing to do with the rate. The death RATE is based on population. AKA a death in Hawaii with 875k = 10 deaths in a state with 8.75 million population as far as rate is concerned. It's a per capita thing.
Greg your total of deaths may be correct today but the island of Oahu is averaging 288 positives per day... the hospital capacity is limited as well as the staffing but you need to get away from “ I ‘m right your wrong “ rants... To understand Hawaii ( a small less populated state) you need to live with those folks...I have been fortunate to spend many days on all the islands as well as make many connections....Their system is like many other ones in the USA ....inadequate to handle the volume of sick patients and that is the point...not the death totals which fortunately are around 54... they will be testing 5 k per week for the next several months... positivity rate is at 8.5%....
 

RU-05

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Where are you getting that? I see that the 7DMA is around 540, it was at 940 on July 31st. Huge decrease.
Ya that July 31st # was actually the peak of a 2nd wave in that state, but it has come down pretty signtificantly since.

They didn't have a 2nd wave of deaths though. That's pretty interesting. Has remained pretty flat since early July.

Edit: Big part of that 2nd wave was increased testing, but there was also a rise in positivity during that time as well, so there was likely some increase in real spread, though not as pronounced as there case #'s indicate.
 
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