COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

[NickRU714]

Do you think Murphy should be less or more strict?

I don't know the science or the stats.
I assume Gov. Murphy gets this information and follow his guidelines.
It is a little weird that he makes such a big display of announcements:
"We must do this to protect everyone. But I'm not going to actually enforce it."

However, it seems many others think Gov. Murphy should be more strict.
All the talk about mandatory masks and contact tracing - Murphy is the one not mandating masks in public at all times such on crowded beaches and boardwalks every weekend.

For example- if Murphy wanted to be serious about contact tracing he could mandate all stores must keep a log of anyone who enters and exits (contact tracing measures used in other countries).

Gov. Murphy has actually been very lax during this entire time.

 

[RU848789]

800 in NJ hospitals- half from LTC - that’s leaves 400 out of 9,000,000 NJ residents- odds are 1 in 20,000 if you catch Covid19 you end up in the hospital. Open up the schools and move forward.

Is that how math works in your world? "If you catch COVID" means you have to start with the people who catch COVID, not the total population of the state. So, if you catch COVID, the odds you end up in the hospital are about 12% or 1 in 8.3 (21K total hospitalized divided by 176K total positive cases by viral PCR test). If one calculates this on the basis of everyone who has caught COVID, even if not tested, then the odds that one ends up in the hospital are about 2% or 1 in 50 (using the 6:1 ratio of those with antibodies to viral PCR cases in NY state). Even if one looks at total hospitalized vs. total population, that's a 1:423 ratio.

https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/documents/topics/NCOV/COVID_Confirmed_Case_Summary.pdf

 

[RU-05]

I don't know the science or the stats.
I assume Gov. Murphy gets this information and follow his guidelines.
It is a little weird that he makes such a big display of announcements:
"We must do this to protect everyone. But I'm not going to actually enforce it."

However, it seems many others think Gov. Murphy should be more strict.
All the talk about mandatory masks and contact tracing - Murphy is the one not mandating masks in public at all times such on crowded beaches and boardwalks every weekend.

For example- if Murphy wanted to be serious about contact tracing he could mandate all stores must keep a log of anyone who enters and exits (contact tracing measures used in other countries).

Gov. Murphy has actually been very lax during this entire time.

But maybe by making a show of it, if you will, he stresses the importance without actually being a heavy handed governor?

Now I'm sure many will say he is overly heavy handed, but I think this show the difficulty of dealing with a public that is so diverse in it's thoughts.

End of the day I think Murphy can be criticized for his handling of the virus early, especially in regards to nursing homes, but the numbers right now show he has handled it very well since, and that is without the strict measures you allude to.

 

[RU-05]

Is that how math works in your world? "If you catch COVID" means you have to start with the people who catch COVID, not the total population of the state. So, if you catch COVID, the odds you end up in the hospital are about 12% or 1 in 8.3 (21K total hospitalized divided by 176K total positive cases by viral PCR test). If one calculates this on the basis of everyone who has caught COVID, even if not tested, then the odds that one ends up in the hospital are about 2% or 1 in 50 (using the 6:1 ratio of those with antibodies to viral PCR cases in NY state). Even if one looks at total hospitalized vs. total population, that's a 1:423 ratio.

https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/documents/topics/NCOV/COVID_Confirmed_Case_Summary.pdf

Total hospitalizations is where I would have went with that rebuttal. Pointing to current hospitalizations as proof of the lack of danger is ridiculous.

Never mind that the total hospitalizations is over a 5 month period, 4 of which have come along side strict mitigations measures.

 

[rutgersdave]

I don't know the science or the stats.
I assume Gov. Murphy gets this information and follow his guidelines.
It is a little weird that he makes such a big display of announcements:
"We must do this to protect everyone. But I'm not going to actually enforce it."

However, it seems many others think Gov. Murphy should be more strict.
All the talk about mandatory masks and contact tracing - Murphy is the one not mandating masks in public at all times such on crowded beaches and boardwalks every weekend.

For example- if Murphy wanted to be serious about contact tracing he could mandate all stores must keep a log of anyone who enters and exits (contact tracing measures used in other countries).

Gov. Murphy has actually been very lax during this entire time.

Murphy will always be wrong with some people and right with some people. That’s why there are always complainers.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Murphy will always be wrong with some people and right with some people. That’s why there are always complainers.

You're pretty experienced at it.

 

[RocktheRac]

Is that how math works in your world? "If you catch COVID" means you have to start with the people who catch COVID, not the total population of the state. So, if you catch COVID, the odds you end up in the hospital are about 12% or 1 in 8.3 (21K total hospitalized divided by 176K total positive cases by viral PCR test). If one calculates this on the basis of everyone who has caught COVID, even if not tested, then the odds that one ends up in the hospital are about 2% or 1 in 50 (using the 6:1 ratio of those with antibodies to viral PCR cases in NY state). Even if one looks at total hospitalized vs. total population, that's a 1:423 ratio.

https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/documents/topics/NCOV/COVID_Confirmed_Case_Summary.pdf

In other words you have a 98% chance of not being hospitalized.

 

[T2Kplus10]

In other words you have a 98% chance of not being hospitalized.

How about risk factors? What is the hospitalization rate for those with and without diabetes or obesity?

 

[RU-05]

Doom and gloom. Doesn't wear you down??

How was that doom and gloom? I was asking a question.

How do you not consider the impact opening up schools will have on children and teachers?

 

[T2Kplus10]

How was that doom and gloom? I was asking a question.

How do you not consider the impact opening up schools will have on children and teachers?

Many schools in Europe are already open. It's fine, stop the doom and gloom.

 

[King of S]

How about risk factors? What is the hospitalization rate for those with and without diabetes or obesity? Good question.

 

[RU-05]

Many schools in Europe are already open. It's fine, stop the doom and gloom.

Those countries have significantly lower case rates.

I'm not necessarily opposed to opening schools, and I do look at examples in Europe for guidance, but we are not in similar situations as those countries. Or at least, certain states in this country are not.

NJ which is in good shape, does appear as though they are looking to be open in fall.

 

[rutgersdave]

You're pretty experienced at it.

You’re the biggest complainer on the board. You’re no longer in local politics so you have to complain about Murphy.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

You’re the biggest complainer on the board. You’re no longer in local politics so you have to complain about Murphy.

LOLz, you're so dry you're starting to crack. Go have a drink

 

[rutgersdave]

LOLz, you're so dry you're starting to crack. Go have a drink

Finally had 2 beer yesterday.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Finally had 2 beer yesterday.

A few won't hurt anyone.

Enjoy the day bud

 

[Joey Bags]

More and more reports of people getting reinfected after around a 3 month interval between infections.

How is this data being incorporated into vaccine trials? At what point does pharma say they have an effective vaccine and what exactly is going to qualify as “effective”?

If people are able to be reinfected after 3 months, does that roughly correlate to a vaccine effective period of 3 months as well? A vaccine that requires a booster every three months seems unfeasible to successfully implement.

 

[RU-05]

Finally had 2 beer yesterday.

A few won't hurt anyone.

Enjoy the day bud

Always good to take a break every once in a while.

Makes them taste so dang good when you finally crack one open.

 

[RU-05]

More and more reports of people getting reinfected after around a 3 month interval between infections.

How is this data being incorporated into vaccine trials? At what point does pharma say they have an effective vaccine and what exactly is going to qualify as “effective”?

If people are able to be reinfected after 3 months, does that roughly correlate to a vaccine effective period of 3 months as well? A vaccine that requires a booster every three months seems unfeasible to successfully implement.

The loss of immunity for those infected is just not good news Legit doom and gloom stuff.

 

[albanyknight]

My wife and I went up to the Adirondacks yesterday and had dinner in a restaurant for the first time since February. You had to wear a mask going in and the hostess took down our names and phone number if they had to do contact tracing. Once seated the masks came off and it was just like before the pandemic except you had to put your mask back on to use the rest rooms and when we left. Hand sanitizers all over the place and people waiting to be seated had to wait outside.

We went to a number of stores and everybody wore a mask inside and practiced social distancing.

Nobody screaming that wearing a mask infringed on their liberties and nobody whining about having a doctor's note that says they don't have to wear a mask.

NYS took the right steps up-front and it is paying off.

 

[T2Kplus10]

More and more reports of people getting reinfected after around a 3 month interval between infections.

How is this data being incorporated into vaccine trials? At what point does pharma say they have an effective vaccine and what exactly is going to qualify as “effective”?

If people are able to be reinfected after 3 months, does that roughly correlate to a vaccine effective period of 3 months as well? A vaccine that requires a booster every three months seems unfeasible to successfully implement.

The reinfected "data" I have seen so far is complete and utter crap. Just speculation and hype due to inaccurate testing.

 

[RU848789]

While the above post was mostly on T-cells, there was a nugget in there about how some recent small scale studies have shown patient antibody levels decreasing over time significantly, including one in China with 37 recovered patients who had mild or asymptomatic infections. Well, today Dr. Krammer's group from Mt. Sinai, published a preprint of a paper where they've analyzed antibodies in nearly 20,000 mildly to moderately ill COVID patients (lots of infections in NYC!) and had this wonderfully pithy one sentence summary of the work, which is great news, particularly the part about antibody responses being stable for at least 3 months (the full abstract is below that). While this doesn't "guarantee" 3-month+ immunity in recovered patients or in vaccinated patients who achieve similar antibody levels, it's the way to bet.

One Sentence Summary: Antibody responses induced by natural mild-to-moderate SARS27 CoV-2 infection are robust, neutralizing and are stable for at least 3 months.

Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 has caused a global pandemic with millions infected and numerous fatalities. Questions regarding the robustness, functionality and longevity of the antibody response to the virus remain unanswered. Here we report that the vast majority of infected individuals with mild to-moderate COVID-19 experience robust IgG antibody responses against the viral spike protein, based on a dataset of 19,860 individuals screened at Mount Sinai Health System in New York City. We also show that titers are stable for at least a period approximating three months, and that anti-spike binding titers significantly correlate with neutralization of authentic SARS-CoV-2. Our data suggests that more than 90% of seroconverters make detectible neutralizing antibody responses and that these titers are stable for at least the near-term future.

Conclusion: Our data reveal that individuals who have recovered from mild COVID-19 experience robust antibody responses. Antibody binding titers to the spike protein correlate significantly with neutralization with authentic SARS-CoV-2 virus, and the vast majority of individuals with antibody titers of 1:320 or higher show neutralizing activity in their serum. Consistent with data for human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-1 and Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome-CoV (23), we also find stable antibody titers over a period of at least 3 months, and we plan to follow this cohort over longer intervals of time. While this cannot provide conclusive evidence that these antibody responses protect from re-infection, we believe it is very likely that they will decrease the odds ratio of getting re-infected, and may attenuate disease in the case of breakthrough infection.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20151126v1.full.pdf

The loss of immunity for those infected is just not good news Legit doom and gloom stuff.

Perhaps you missed this early Saturday. Huge news that antibody levels look to remain robust and stable for 3 months in the vast majority of recovered patients, so far - and antibody data on 20,000 patients beats it on 37. Also, @Joey Bags - there is no documented evidence, to date, of true reinfection (what has been seen is people testing positive for RNA residuals, not active virus).

 

[RUBOB72]

Simply put children under the age of 10 (according to Sweden’s scientific community ) pose very little to no chance of spreading the virus. Now that was reported previously several months ago so the idea that over 10 makes some sense. I believe that not only are younger more resistant but have lesser contacts with those who are much older. Other than school how much interaction occurs between children and their peers. As we age we tend to associate with many older groups and into areas which lends itself to viral spreading. If I or my wife were to become infected then let it be from my adult children or my grandchild not some stranger in a store, street parade or at the beach. This is a virus that will never be totally eradicated even with a vaccine . The world is composed of many smart scientific minds but even they understand the difficulty we all face. Not hopeless ...just unlikely...

 

[RU848789]

In other words you have a 98% chance of not being hospitalized.

Congrats, you're better at math than the other guy, who had it at at 99.995%.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

New record set for NC. The N.C. Department of Health and Human Services on Saturday reported an additional 2,481 cases of the virus — a record. Saturday’s total was up from the 2,051 cases reported Friday and surpassed the previous record of 2,462 set last Saturday.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Somerset County still doing well, new cases around 10'ish per day. On Friday, there were -1 fatalities.

https://somerset-county-nj-coronavirus-response-somerset.hub.arcgis.com/

 

[cohwx]

My wife and I went up to the Adirondacks yesterday and had dinner in a restaurant for the first time since February. You had to wear a mask going in and the hostess took down our names and phone number if they had to do contact tracing. Once seated the masks came off and it was just like before the pandemic except you had to put your mask back on to use the rest rooms and when we left. Hand sanitizers all over the place and people waiting to be seated had to wait outside.

We went to a number of stores and everybody wore a mask inside and practiced social distancing.

Nobody screaming that wearing a mask infringed on their liberties and nobody whining about having a doctor's note that says they don't have to wear a mask.

NYS took the right steps up-front and it is paying off.

Matches my experience here in western NY, except that we're not going out to eat. Have had take out/deliveries from local restaurants, trying to support them as much as possible,

 

[RU-05]

Perhaps you missed this early Saturday. Huge news that antibody levels look to remain robust and stable for 3 months in the vast majority of recovered patients, so far - and antibody data on 20,000 patients beats it on 37. Also, @Joey Bags - there is no documented evidence, to date, of true reinfection (what has been seen is people testing positive for RNA residuals, not active virus).

Oh I certainly did. I was going off Joey Bags info, which would then be incorrect.

 

[Greg2020]

Perhaps you missed this early Saturday. Huge news that antibody levels look to remain robust and stable for 3 months in the vast majority of recovered patients, so far - and antibody data on 20,000 patients beats it on 37. Also, @Joey Bags - there is no documented evidence, to date, of true reinfection (what has been seen is people testing positive for RNA residuals, not active virus).

CNN quoted a lawyer who was sick in March with Corona, and then recovered and had been testing negative and felt fine for months. Then he started feeling sick again in July and tested positive again. His doctor thought it was a flare up of the original case but that still seems pretty bad. He is from Georgia.

 

[Joey Bags]

Perhaps you missed this early Saturday. Huge news that antibody levels look to remain robust and stable for 3 months in the vast majority of recovered patients, so far - and antibody data on 20,000 patients beats it on 37. Also, @Joey Bags - there is no documented evidence, to date, of true reinfection (what has been seen is people testing positive for RNA residuals, not active virus).

I certainly hope thats the case. That being said, what do you make of instances such as this:

https://www.jpost.com/health-scienc...-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550

 

[charliem24]

New record set for NC. The N.C. Department of Health and Human Services on Saturday reported an additional 2,481 cases of the virus — a record. Saturday’s total was up from the 2,051 cases reported Friday and surpassed the previous record of 2,462 set last Saturday.

We were up in Boone for 5 days this past week, did Blowing Rock, Grandfather mountain, golf, etc. We were really impressed with the percentage of people wearing masks, had to be 95%+, along with hand sanitizer stations everywhere. Much higher rate of compliance than Wilmington area.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I certainly hope thats the case. That being said, what do you make of instances such as this:

https://www.jpost.com/health-scienc...-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550

The April test was likely a false positive (or the recent test was inaccurate). If reinfections were a legit thing, the data and cases would be plentiful by now.

 

[Greg2020]

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...-nj-but-data-shows-they-actually-dropped.html

There goes the narrative about how lockdowns will kill more than the virus via suicide.

 

[WhiteBus]

How was that doom and gloom? I was asking a question.

How do you not consider the impact opening up schools will have on children and teachers?

How is it gloom and doom? Seriously?? You do this constantly! You are always asking a question about the very worst case scenario all the time!

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

It's a stretch, but there is a possibility. Blood clots forming in the legs and heart have been causing havoc. These clots can move to the lungs, brain and coronary arteries which have resulted in damage to those organs. It's not rare for these blood clots to form.

Mine was a serious question.. unless that is what caused the accident it has no business being counted as a CoVid death.

 

[RUevolution36]

https://www.nj.com/ocean/2020/07/nj...sking-2-customers-to-pull-up-their-masks.html

Inconsiderate c***ts.

 

[RU848789]

I certainly hope thats the case. That being said, what do you make of instances such as this:

https://www.jpost.com/health-scienc...-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550

Reinfection is certainly a risk with any coronavirus, since people do get reinfected with other coronaviruses, but that has not been documented with SARS or MERS, which are much more similar to COVID than the other coronaviruses, and it has not been documented yet for COVID. Just because someone tests positive for the "virus" doesn't mean one has an active viral infection as was well documented in South Korea.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/ot-covid-cup-2020.198540/#post-4613994

 

[King of S]

How is it gloom and doom? Seriously?? You do this constantly! You are always asking a question about the very worst case scenario all the time!

It’s true RU 05 - never anything positive from you..

 

[rutgersguy1]

Here’s some good news.

Vermont has reported no Covid-19 deaths in more than 30 days

From CNN’s Lauren Del Valle

Vermont has reported no new coronavirus-related deaths since June 19, maintaining 56 deaths in the state for more than 30 consecutive days, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

Vermont has in total reported 1350 cases of Covid-19 since the beginning of the outbreak in March.

CNN has reached out to the Vermont Department of Health for comment.

 

[RUJohnny]

144 new cases yesterday, and 11 new deaths reported. About as low as we've gotten. Open the restaurants, there's no data to justify otherwise.

Also, this BS:
"Today’s total case count is lower than yesterday’s case count due to an issue related to electronic receipt of lab results and a high volume of duplicate case merges. This situation is being looked into closely and will tried to be resolved as quickly as possible."