ADVERTISEMENT

COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

Status
Not open for further replies.
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/202...s-of-covid-19-cases-from-bexar-countys-tally/

As state officials updated the Texas Department of Health and Human Services COVID-19 dashboard on Wednesday, they included a note about Bexar County’s case count.

“The San Antonio Metro Health District has clarified its reporting to separate confirmed and probable cases, so the Bexar County and statewide totals have been updated to remove 3,484 probable cases. The local case count previously included probable cases identified by antigen testing but not those from antibody testing or other sources.”

The state’s count, which only includes confirmed cases, now shows more than 17,000 COVID-19 cases for Bexar County, while Bexar County’s local count shows more than 21,000 cases, combining confirmed and probable cases.

While DSHS has now omitted probable cases from the dashboard, the state health department established the guidelines for determining a probable case which includes individuals who have not had a positive PCR test for COVID-19, but who meet two of the following three criteria:

A positive quick-result antigen test
Experiencing COVID-19 symptoms
Close contact with a confirmed positive COVID-19 case
In San Antonio, probable case counts specifically include symptomatic individuals who had a positive antigen test.


Are positive antigen test any good? Numbers, should they be included?
 
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/202...s-of-covid-19-cases-from-bexar-countys-tally/

As state officials updated the Texas Department of Health and Human Services COVID-19 dashboard on Wednesday, they included a note about Bexar County’s case count.

“The San Antonio Metro Health District has clarified its reporting to separate confirmed and probable cases, so the Bexar County and statewide totals have been updated to remove 3,484 probable cases. The local case count previously included probable cases identified by antigen testing but not those from antibody testing or other sources.”

The state’s count, which only includes confirmed cases, now shows more than 17,000 COVID-19 cases for Bexar County, while Bexar County’s local count shows more than 21,000 cases, combining confirmed and probable cases.

While DSHS has now omitted probable cases from the dashboard, the state health department established the guidelines for determining a probable case which includes individuals who have not had a positive PCR test for COVID-19, but who meet two of the following three criteria:

A positive quick-result antigen test
Experiencing COVID-19 symptoms
Close contact with a confirmed positive COVID-19 case
In San Antonio, probable case counts specifically include symptomatic individuals who had a positive antigen test.


Are positive antigen test any good? Numbers, should they be included?
They should be.
 
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/202...s-of-covid-19-cases-from-bexar-countys-tally/

As state officials updated the Texas Department of Health and Human Services COVID-19 dashboard on Wednesday, they included a note about Bexar County’s case count.

“The San Antonio Metro Health District has clarified its reporting to separate confirmed and probable cases, so the Bexar County and statewide totals have been updated to remove 3,484 probable cases. The local case count previously included probable cases identified by antigen testing but not those from antibody testing or other sources.”

The state’s count, which only includes confirmed cases, now shows more than 17,000 COVID-19 cases for Bexar County, while Bexar County’s local count shows more than 21,000 cases, combining confirmed and probable cases.

While DSHS has now omitted probable cases from the dashboard, the state health department established the guidelines for determining a probable case which includes individuals who have not had a positive PCR test for COVID-19, but who meet two of the following three criteria:

A positive quick-result antigen test
Experiencing COVID-19 symptoms
Close contact with a confirmed positive COVID-19 case
In San Antonio, probable case counts specifically include symptomatic individuals who had a positive antigen test.


Are positive antigen test any good? Numbers, should they be included?

Antigen tests are very accurate for positive tests results, less accurate for negative test results. No idea why they would exclude.
 
  • Like
Reactions: biker7766
The one good thing about AZ is that their new cases have plateaued off a bit, but that might just be from less testing since their positivity rate is still very high.
 
Many states have been fluffing the numbers since the beginning. Hard to know what is real.
I don't know how common it is but there are cases where a death by some other cause is attributed to Coronavirus because the person tested positive. The 1st NJ death had me scratching my head when it was listed as a Coronavirus death but days later, additional information was reported. The man had many health issues, including diabetes, heart problems and high blood pressure. He suffered a heart attack, was revived by paramedics but eventually had a second heart attack (either en-route or at the hospital) and passed away.
 
https://www.ksat.com/news/local/202...s-of-covid-19-cases-from-bexar-countys-tally/

As state officials updated the Texas Department of Health and Human Services COVID-19 dashboard on Wednesday, they included a note about Bexar County’s case count.

“The San Antonio Metro Health District has clarified its reporting to separate confirmed and probable cases, so the Bexar County and statewide totals have been updated to remove 3,484 probable cases. The local case count previously included probable cases identified by antigen testing but not those from antibody testing or other sources.”

The state’s count, which only includes confirmed cases, now shows more than 17,000 COVID-19 cases for Bexar County, while Bexar County’s local count shows more than 21,000 cases, combining confirmed and probable cases.

While DSHS has now omitted probable cases from the dashboard, the state health department established the guidelines for determining a probable case which includes individuals who have not had a positive PCR test for COVID-19, but who meet two of the following three criteria:

A positive quick-result antigen test
Experiencing COVID-19 symptoms
Close contact with a confirmed positive COVID-19 case
In San Antonio, probable case counts specifically include symptomatic individuals who had a positive antigen test.


Are positive antigen test any good? Numbers, should they be included?

Antigen tests are very accurate for positive tests results, less accurate for negative test results. No idea why they would exclude.

As long as antigen tests (for the virus, as opposed to antibody tests to assess previous exposure, which should never be counted) are being used instead of viral PCR testing, i.e., so that there's no double counting of positive tests for the same person, then they're fine. Double counting any test results for any individuals is unacceptable when looking for population infected counts.
 
I don't know how common it is but there are cases where a death by some other cause is attributed to Coronavirus because the person tested positive. The 1st NJ death had me scratching my head when it was listed as a Coronavirus death but days later, additional information was reported. The man had many health issues, including diabetes, heart problems and high blood pressure. He suffered a heart attack, was revived by paramedics but eventually had a second heart attack (either en-route or at the hospital) and passed away.

In those cases you have to ask yourself if the person would have passed away if they did not contract CV, a virus that impacts the cardiovascular system. Coincidental? Maybe, but with what we now know, CV is usually to blame.
 
I don't know how common it is but there are cases where a death by some other cause is attributed to Coronavirus because the person tested positive. The 1st NJ death had me scratching my head when it was listed as a Coronavirus death but days later, additional information was reported. The man had many health issues, including diabetes, heart problems and high blood pressure. He suffered a heart attack, was revived by paramedics but eventually had a second heart attack (either en-route or at the hospital) and passed away.
well.. from what I have read a case like that could be covid. Think of the cases where people have cancer and it weakens them to a point where pneumonia gets em. Now.. what killed them.. the cancer or pneumonia? Take your pick, right?

Same for that case. it could be that CoVid really got them.. without CoVid.. maybe they struggle on for another 5-10 years before the accumulated health issues cause that heart attack. Maybe CoVid caused breathing and clotting issues that brought on stroke and the heart attack.

OR.. it could be that they had a very mild case of CoVid.. had barely had it in number of days.. and the heart attack that was on the way for some time arrived and they just happened to be CoVid positive at the time.

Either is possible.. take your pick. But the motorcycle thing?... C'mon now. Did CoVid cause a stroke while riding?
 
  • Like
Reactions: biker7766 and RU-05
I don't know how common it is but there are cases where a death by some other cause is attributed to Coronavirus because the person tested positive.
+1
This is one of the major problems with the counts. IIRC, about 90% of folks on the Italy corona death list had a different cause of death cited on their end of life paperwork. So this is a problem beyond the US.

Until we have the following data, we don't know the real story:

1. Deaths due to COVID (where COVID directly caused the reason of death)
2. Deaths where COVID was a contributing factor (where COVID exasperated a pre-existing condition)
3. Deaths while having COVID, but not caused or contributed via COVID

Right now, everything is being lumped together. Not good science.
 
+1
This is one of the major problems with the counts. IIRC, about 90% of folks on the Italy corona death list had a different cause of death cited on their end of life paperwork. So this is a problem beyond the US.

Until we have the following data, we don't know the real story:

1. Deaths due to COVID (where COVID directly caused the reason of death)
2. Deaths where COVID was a contributing factor (where COVID exasperated a pre-existing condition)
3. Deaths while having COVID, but not caused or contributed via COVID

Right now, everything is being lumped together. Not good science.
I wonder if we had the same problems with H1N1 swine flu death counts in '09. Hmmm...
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus10
So have the symptoms of COVID changed?

According to the CDC up through May cases fell into the following categories:

-Asymptomatic: no symptoms

-Mild: severe flu-like symptoms, likely to be the worst illness ever experienced, in many cases much worse than the flu. Symptoms abate after 14 days without needing hospitalization.

-Moderate: Hospitalization required, but intervention is limited to non-surgical.

Severe: ICU hospitalization required, intubation likely.

So now that we’re up to 70k+ cases, where are they charting among these 4 cohorts?

I struggle hearing reports that people test positive and their only symptoms are “allergy” or “cold-like” symptoms. COVID does not cause either of those. It’s much more likely they were asymptomatic with COVID and had allergies or a minor non-COVID viral or bacterial infection simultaneously.
 
This is a good example of today's cancel culture that is ripping apart our country: If what you say or post is not acceptable to me, you shouldn't have a voice, ever.
No, the guy is a political hack who is wrong about everything and wouldn't know science if she punched him in the nose. It's a clear troll move to post anything Horowitz related.
 
Horowitz continues to write inaccurate, slanted articles. He mentions that the CDC estimated 600 pediatric deaths during the 2017-2018 flu season, but ignores the fact that the CDC actually has true flu death counts for those 0-17 (not just very complex model estimates, which is all we have for the general population), since those have had to be reported by every state to the CDC since 2004. Those actual reported flu deaths have ranged from 37 (2011-2012 season) to 185 deaths (2017-2018 season, not 600), as per the link below, with an average number of age 0-17 flu deaths being about 120 per season.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/pedfludeath.html

For COVID, we're likely around 90-100 deaths, so far, for 0-17 (CDC data are from 0-14, then 15-24, so hard to tell exactly), so a little less than an average flu season right now, but we're not done yet, unfortunately. Plus, we know that COVID has a fast-growing problem with MIS-C (multi-system inflammatory syndrome), so it's not all just about deaths. I agree, though, that simply based on risks to children, relative to the flu, there's no reason we should close schools.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-217#post-4621137

What he misses though is the potential risk to teachers, staff, and parents, especially via asymptomatic/mildly symptomatic (especially in flu season) spread of the virus, especially with a very slanted inaccurate statement of, "Finally, we already know that children almost always get the virus from adults and that the primary location for transmission is at home." We don't "know" that nearly so well. It's true that as of now, children appear to get infected a fair amount less than adults and are sources of transmission in much lower percentages.

However, it's also very possible those numbers are skewed heavily due to the fact that schools were shut down quickly and for months and kids have remained at home, while far more adults have gone back to work, some in risky occupations, so it's very possible transmission rates from children to adults would be significantly greater in a world where they were in schools while the virus was highly prevalent. A recent Swiss study, just published in the CDC Emergency Infectious Diseases Journal, showed that the small number of infected children they saw did have similar viral loads to adults, which is certainly disconcerting for transmission - we definitely need more data on this.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-2403_article

Our data show that viral load at diagnosis is comparable to that of adults (6,7) and that symptomatic children of all ages shed infectious virus in early acute illness, a prerequisite for further transmission. Isolation of infectious virus was largely comparable with that of adults, although 2 specimens yielded an isolate at lower viral load (1.2 × 104 and 1.4 × 105 copies/mL) (6).

Also, with regard to numbers of children infected being very low, so far, the data from Florida recently is at odds with that, as they've had over 1000 kids infected per day (nearly 10% of the total) for several days, which is much greater than earlier data). So, while I think areas like NY/NJ, if we maintain fairly low transmission rates, can probably safely reopen schools in-person (with masks/distancing/less density and other controls), along with some on-line components, I don't think reopening schools in areas with major outbreaks would be a good idea. As I said about a week ago, if our son were still in school, with his and my wife's underlying conditions, I'm pretty sure we'd opt to home-school him (which helps decrease density at the school), to keep our risks acceptable to us, but not everyone has that luxury. It's not an easy call for teachers or parents.

https://www.wfla.com/news/florida/coronavirus-cases-jump-among-children-in-florida/

As I kind of expected, now that kids haven't been as sequestered in the south and west, cases among children are becoming much more prevalent...

 
This is a good example of today's cancel culture that is ripping apart our country: If what you say or post is not acceptable to me, you shouldn't have a voice, ever.
The tyranny of the minority (that could mean skin color, religion or political cause.. when you cannot out-vote and you cannot persuade those opposed to you.. you try to force things any way you can)
 
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/pedfludeath.html

For COVID, we're likely around 90-100 deaths, so far, for 0-17 (CDC data are from 0-14, then 15-24, so hard to tell exactly), so a little less than an average flu season right now, but we're not done yet, unfortunately. Plus, we know that COVID has a fast-growing problem with MIS-C (multi-system inflammatory syndrome), so it's not all just about deaths. I agree, though, that simply based on risks to children, relative to the flu, there's no reason we should close schools.
/
Has there been 100 deaths of minors?

Doesn't sound like a lot but that is with schools being closed. What would that number be over a full year with schools open? Also wonder what level of child fatalities would be considered acceptable?
 
Last edited:
I read today that DHEA and melatonin may be great preventatives.If so,that's great news for me as I've been taking both of them for the last 30 years.
 
+1
This is one of the major problems with the counts. IIRC, about 90% of folks on the Italy corona death list had a different cause of death cited on their end of life paperwork. So this is a problem beyond the US.

Until we have the following data, we don't know the real story:

1. Deaths due to COVID (where COVID directly caused the reason of death)
2. Deaths where COVID was a contributing factor (where COVID exasperated a pre-existing condition)
3. Deaths while having COVID, but not caused or contributed via COVID

Right now, everything is being lumped together. Not good science.

I doubt you recall correctly at all, since one can find many, many sources saying just the opposite. Below is the most recent one from the Italian National Institute of Health, clearly showing (for a very large population sample) that "COVID-19 is the cause directly leading to death, i.e. the underlying cause, in 89% of deaths of people with a positive test to SARS-CoV-2." You really should be more careful throwing out unsourced information like that. Also, maybe invest in a dictionary - the word you were looking for is "exacerbated" not "exasperated."

https://www.istat.it/it/files//2020/07/Report_ISS_Istat_Inglese.pdf
  • Causes of death reported on 4,942 death records of patients with a positive test to SARS-CoV2 were analyzed (15.6% of total deaths reported to the COVID-19 Surveillance System of the ISS until May 25th). The records include, besides COVID-19, all conditions and diseases that, according to the certifying physician, contributed in determining the death.
  • COVID-19 is the cause directly leading to death, i.e. the underlying cause, in 89% of deaths of people with a positive test to SARS-CoV-2. The main causes in the remaining 11% of cases are diseases of the circulatory system (4.6% of total deaths analyzed), neoplasms (2.4%), diseases of the respiratory system (1%), diabetes (0.6%), dementia (0.6%) and diseases of the digestive system (0.5%).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT