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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/icu-death-rate-covid-19-111619777.html

The British study analyzed all published research from around the world on COVID-19 ICU deaths among adults, and it found the fatality rate dropped from 60 percent of ICU patients at the end of March to 40 percent in May, a 33 percent drop. The ICU death rate was more or less constant across all continents.
 
It is kind of difficult to decouple this situation from politics, because the reason why we’ve done so poorly and will be talking about covid and it’s impacts for so much longer than other countries will is largely politically based. I’m not going to say anything beyond that, but this is both a heath and political situation. It just is.
I agree but I'm under assumption that this was to be political free discussion, either way if people would follow the conservation they would see I bought #'s claim that it wasn't meant to be political and was a genuine post about just Fauci's leadership, so I don't know why we're rehashing this.
 
https://www.yahoo.com/news/icu-death-rate-covid-19-111619777.html

The British study analyzed all published research from around the world on COVID-19 ICU deaths among adults, and it found the fatality rate dropped from 60 percent of ICU patients at the end of March to 40 percent in May, a 33 percent drop. The ICU death rate was more or less constant across all continents.

I'll take that good news Dave. Hopefully the treatments and advancements learned will help our southern and southwest neighbors keep those rates as low as possible as they are feeling the brunt of Covid-19 now.
 
Remember, RCTs are the "gold standard" of medical science, carrying far more scientific weight than observational/retrospective studies. It's also worth noting that if HCQ were a "gamechanger" surely we would not have seen death rates in NY and the US nearly double from 4/1 to 5/1, when 60-80% of patients were being given HCQ. It doesn't work, it never worked and we need to move on, as we now have some moderately beneficial treatments in hand now (remdesivir, dexamethasone, tocilimuzab, and convalescent plasma). Perhaps this will finally put the sad HCQ chapter behind us, which became far too political, which never should have happened.

Yes and the Lancet and NEJM reports were supposed to close the book too and it turned into a scandal. If researchers want to lie/obfuscate they can lie/obfuscate. Its been obvious the fix was in when a well known drug used for decades was suddenly made into the worst drug ever invented

Minnesota study

"To conduct these studies, the researchers made significant compromises. They could not obtain diagnostic testing for all patients, so included people who had symptoms but couldn’t get a test result. In the end, only 58% of the people in this study had diagnostic test results. The researchers mailed study drug or placebo to patients without examining them after they enrolled over the internet, meaning they used data patients self-reported. In the end, the study randomized 491 patients, 432 of whom contributed data to the final analysis...“The study was of such low quality that it was fundamentally uninterpretable,” said Steven Nissen, a veteran clinical trialist at the Cleveland Clinic"


https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16...laws-adds-to-case-against-hydroxychloroquine/

Meanwhile:

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine Cut Death Rate Significantly in COVID-19 Patients, Henry Ford Health System Study Shows
https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/hydro-treatment-study



This is another feint. Less than 500 people - over the internet ...some "gold standard"
 
I think government at every level, including many of our mayors and governors were flat-footed, and didn’t want this to be an American problem after it was already an American problem right under their noses.

That said the New Rochelle containment zone was the first of its kind in this crisis in the US, and maybe ever (I’m just guessing), and was instituted by the State of NY (not the Feds) on March 10th.

I know Cuomo said they wouldn’t lock down NYC before eventually doing so around March 20th, but to say he “flat-out rejected shelter in place” is kind of misleading (unless you’re referring to the term itself) when he had already basically shut down a decent sized town.
Cuomo derided the shelter-in-place plan shared by SanFran Mayor that went into effect on 3/17 in the 2nd densest city in America. 5 days later Cuomo and Wihelm did put NYC under shutdown orders, but 1) it certainly wasn't a Wuhan-style lockdown and NYers were still gathering in parks etc. many weeks later, and 2) most importantly "that five-day delay is likely a contributing factor as to why New York City has been one of the hardest-hit cities in the nation and why San Francisco's infection count has remained lower. Experts were quoted in a New York Times article in April saying that their research showed a much lower death toll for the state had officials acted a week or two sooner. And the former head of New York City's Health Department, Dr. Tom Frieden, echoed that conclusion in a tweet in April, as ProPublica notes. "Days earlier & so many deaths could have been prevented," Frieden posted."

https://www.businessinsider.com/new...o-dismiss-shelter-in-place-coronavirus-2020-5
 
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This is what leadership looks like. Stumbled across this story tonight from 5 years ago. The pic is of Dr. Fauci suiting up to treat an Ebola patient back in 2015, as he says he "gets unique insights into disease when you actually physically interact with patients" and he also wanted to show his staff that he wouldn't ask them to do anything he wouldn't do himself.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/03/why-nihs-anthony-fauci-treating-ebola-patients-himself

si-faucippe.jpg

Did he do the same for chicomvirus yet?
Numbers? Bueller? Anyone?

 
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Yes and the Lancet and NEJM reports were supposed to close the book too and it turned into a scandal. If researchers want to lie/obfuscate they can lie/obfuscate. Its been obvious the fix was in when a well known drug used for decades was suddenly made into the worst drug ever invented

Minnesota study

"To conduct these studies, the researchers made significant compromises. They could not obtain diagnostic testing for all patients, so included people who had symptoms but couldn’t get a test result. In the end, only 58% of the people in this study had diagnostic test results. The researchers mailed study drug or placebo to patients without examining them after they enrolled over the internet, meaning they used data patients self-reported. In the end, the study randomized 491 patients, 432 of whom contributed data to the final analysis...“The study was of such low quality that it was fundamentally uninterpretable,” said Steven Nissen, a veteran clinical trialist at the Cleveland Clinic"


https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16...laws-adds-to-case-against-hydroxychloroquine/

Meanwhile:

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine Cut Death Rate Significantly in COVID-19 Patients, Henry Ford Health System Study Shows
https://www.henryford.com/news/2020/07/hydro-treatment-study



This is another feint. Less than 500 people - over the internet ...some "gold standard"

Already covered this. The Detroit study was just another observational study in hospitalized patients, while the Recovery trial was randomized, controlled and blinded, so it is far more relevant than the Detroit study, plus there were two NYC studies (one in the NEJM and one in JAMA) that were observational that also showed no benefit. As far as I know, all the RCT's, including another one from China have showed no HCQ benefit and most of the observational ones, too, except for a few, like the Detroit one. Also, the Detroit study was highly flawed with the "control" group being 5 years older than the HCQ group.

Both Boulware studies were not perfect, but I don't know of any other RCTs in these patient populations, plus, like I said if HCQ were beneficial there's no way death rates would've doubled when 60-80% of patients were taking it at the height of the first wave. It's simply not effective. And even as a prophylactic, we have two fairly poorly run retrospective studies, both from India, one saying it's effective and one saying it's not. That's the kind of variability one gets with observational studies when there's no clinical benefit (or a very minor one), since variability is simply built in to these kinds of studies, far more than RCTs. If you want to show me an RCT that showed HCQ efficacy, I'm all ears.
 
Already covered this. The Detroit study was just another observational study in hospitalized patients, while the Recovery trial was randomized, controlled and blinded, so it is far more relevant than the Detroit study, plus there were two NYC studies (one in the NEJM and one in JAMA) that were observational that also showed no benefit. As far as I know, all the RCT's, including another one from China have showed no HCQ benefit and most of the observational ones, too, except for a few, like the Detroit one. Also, the Detroit study was highly flawed with the "control" group being 5 years older than the HCQ group.

Both Boulware studies were not perfect, but I don't know of any other RCTs in these patient populations, plus, like I said if HCQ were beneficial there's no way death rates would've doubled when 60-80% of patients were taking it at the height of the first wave. It's simply not effective. And even as a prophylactic, we have two fairly poorly run retrospective studies, both from India, one saying it's effective and one saying it's not. That's the kind of variability one gets with observational studies when there's no clinical benefit (or a very minor one), since variability is simply built in to these kinds of studies, far more than RCTs. If you want to show me an RCT that showed HCQ efficacy, I'm all ears.
Why aren't these HCQ studies using the zinc combo(s) that some well-informed posters like @wheezer and @wisr01 have discussed? Seems relevant to a pharma layman like me.
 
Given China's global aspirations, I'm not sure I would trust a vaccine from China went through a rigorous process for safety and efficiency that may not have been manipulated along the way.
Fair point. But on the other hand, as a communist dictatorship the trial patients "volunteered" in China would have been put through any and every test scenario imaginable no matter how extreme.
 
Cuomo derided the shelter-in-place plan shared by SanFran Mayor that went into effect on 3/17 in the 2nd densest city in America. 5 days later Cuomo and Wihelm did put NYC under shutdown orders, but 1) it certainly wasn't a Wuhan-style lockdown and NYers were still gathering in parks etc. many weeks later, and 2) most importantly "that five-day delay is likely a contributing factor as to why New York City has been one of the hardest-hit cities in the nation and why San Francisco's infection count has remained lower. Experts were quoted in a New York Times article in April saying that their research showed a much lower death toll for the state had officials acted a week or two sooner. And the former head of New York City's Health Department, Dr. Tom Frieden, echoed that conclusion in a tweet in April, as ProPublica notes. "Days earlier & so many deaths could have been prevented," Frieden posted."

https://www.businessinsider.com/new...o-dismiss-shelter-in-place-coronavirus-2020-5
Covered this too and was critical of Cuomo/Murphy for delaying the formal shutdown, but the shutdown was largely in effect on 3/16, when NY/NJ/NY shut down schools, bars, restaurants and entertainment venues, so the difference between them and SF was minor. By far, the biggest factor in shutdowns being weeks later than they could have been was the lack of testing, as you know.

Hard to argue for shutdowns with no data, as no tests were run before 3/3 (and 1 death in the 2 states) and <1000 tests per day until mid-March, when we needed to be running at least 20-30K tests per day - we probably had 50-100K positive cases by mid-March and had no clue, because the Administration failed miserably to do what most of the successful countries did - test early and aggressively (and trac/isolate and wear masks) - if we had known the extent of the outbreak by early March and shut down then (or even just had universal masking), we'd have saved 75-90% of the lives lost in the NE US, as per several studies.

And since I'm sure you'll fall back on your useless go-to argument of size, the DC to Boston megalopolis has 52MM people in 56,200 sq mi for a density of 931/sq mi. South Korea is very similar with 51MM people in 38,700 sq mi for a density of 1317/sq mi. The megalopolis has roughly 18K cases and 1300 deaths per 1MM people, while South Korea has 267 cases and 8 deaths per 1MM, i.e., the megalopolis has 67X the cases and 162X the number of deaths as SK (the US numbers are 11.6K cases and 428 deaths per 1MM for ratios of 43X the cases and 54X the deaths as SK). Are you telling me we couldn't have done for the NE US what SK did for themselves?

South Korea managed to keep an area almost as large and a bit more densely populated than the NE megalopolis largely free from the virus without ever enforcing rigid lockdowns and the US, with more rigid lockdowns has come nowhere close to SK. I'm not going to retype everything SK did vs. the US, but if you want to read it, it's in an earlier post.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-141#post-4587498
 
Why aren't these HCQ studies using the zinc combo(s) that some well-informed posters like @wheezer and @wisr01 have discussed? Seems relevant to a pharma layman like me.

Zinc use was evaluated in both the Boulware trials and found to not be relevant. Zinc was not evaluated in the Recovery trial, but then again, neither was vitamin D or several other things the HCQ folks said should have been evaluated - it's hard enough to run one RCT, but to run more trials is very hard and to potentially confound the results is also a bad thing (which is part of why they didn't use azithromycin - part was due to the increased heart risks of the combo).

With the HCQ army, it's always why didn't you try this or what about these patients or whatever and they're always touting hugely the couple of trials that showed some benefit and ignoring the rest, so I'm sure we'll see the usual parade of criticisms on-line (they're out there already) and here. HCQ is over for me unless someone shows me an RCT with some efficacy.
 
I'll take that good news Dave. Hopefully the treatments and advancements learned will help our southern and southwest neighbors keep those rates as low as possible as they are feeling the brunt of Covid-19 now.
That's my hope and most of the reasoning (along with a younger infected patient profile) for my guess that we'll see 1/3-2/3 the death rates, per capita, vs. what we saw in NY/NJ.
 
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Cool breathalyzer idea for nearly instant COVID testing, although it's difficult to judge, since they haven't published their method or any results yet. The story says they're analyzing breath gases (presumably O2, COW and maybe trace levels of H2S or NH3) and presumably have noticed differences in these gases in infected vs. uninfected people, but they're clearly not measuring viral RNA, which is what the viral PCR test does. Unless they're actually doing some measure of organic matter in the breath, since virus particles in one's breath certainly contain proteins and RNA, which are organic molecules (maybe a flame ionization detector?) and uninfected people likely just don't have that much organic matter in their breath.

Nano sensors inside the breathalyzer detect different gases that people’s lungs produce. The company says that it identifies the virus, like an instant blood test.

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronavirus/labs-race-to-find-more-efficient-covid-19-tests/2327743/


Would be cool if this actually works though, as we need a nearly instant test that's pretty accurate in order to truly open things like entertainment/sports/food/bar venues (could do these at entrances or maybe require one to be run that day and have proof of it) - I was hoping for an instant antigen test in a finger-prick of blood, which would be more specific for the virus than this test, but the accuracy and speed just aren't there yet and PCR testing will likely never be fast enough for close to real time "clearance" for an event.

One also has to worry a bit about the accuracy of any such test (breathalyzer, antigen, etc.) as it will likely be a function of stage of the infection, since that affects number of viral particles in one's breath (and sneezes/coughs) and is part of why we see so many false negatives (>20%) in the viral PCR test, since viral load is often low at that time. As an aside, the dose received is known to significantly influence the seriousness of one's infection, based on animal testing and indirect evaluations with human viruses (we can't ethically do such tests with COVID).

 
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IMHO you are correct Ronnie_B. The whole "avoid politics" thing, in real practice, seems to be "allow us to make political points without responding". I have to say though.. that when others make political points I have been allowed to respond to them.

The one time I was first to interject some political angle into a thread it got axed.. as did the posts criticizing me for interjecting politics.... totally fair moderation there.. I felt bad for making work for the mods.

But in threads like this.. some political discussion has been allowed.. in relation to his crisis.

As I hinted at in an earlier post.. I think all of the following is true:

1) Trump has made odd statements that he largely got from experts
2) The experts have failed us
3) Dr. Fauci is the expert for good reasons
4) Dr. Fauci failed us many times.. and corrects himself largely without admitting blame.. or blaming anyone else
5) The media wants to get Dr. Fauci to blame Trump
6) The media is avoiding finding any blame inside the CDC, FEMA, FDA or any of the experts...
7) The media would love to blame Trump or his political appointees
8) this latest thing about the memo leak showing Trump wants to blame Fauci.. I think that's a ploy by the media to stir discord
9) all this stuff about continuing quarantines and going to mail-in ballots with ballot harvesting.. it is all political and all CoVid-related in the worst way.. it is simply NOT about protecting us. It cannot be when the people pushing that are just fine with BLM protests nationwide.

Its a pandemic in an election year.. a GIGANTIC, IMPORTANT election year. It is political. There is no way around that. The more pain and the more blame that can be thrown Trump's way the better for all the opposing elements.. including the media.
What actions has the Trump administration taken in the past 2 months to try and contain the virus in order to expedite the country's recovery period? Have there been any interventions put in place to improve overall response, or a facilitation of interstate coordination?
 
What actions has the Trump administration taken in the past 2 months to try and contain the virus in order to expedite the country's recovery period? Have there been any interventions put in place to improve overall response, or a facilitation of interstate coordination?
Artificial measurement.

What has Congress done over that same time period?

You know the feds have limited control over what states do or do not do. And you know Trump is for reopening the economy. He wants the nation to be stronger so that this pandemic does not result in more permanent damage to the economic engine of the nation.

What has Congress done to protect the economy or our children's futures?

What have the states done to protect the economy or our children's futures?

See how that works? A lot of blue states seem to want things shut down... which hurts businesses and the economy and childrens' schooling... so asking a question with that as the standard presents a situation where the answer is that they have done NOTHING.

You just asked a similar "question" from a different angle. It was really an accusation in the form of a question. So why not just make the accusation? Why be passive-aggressive about it?
 
Makes me wonder if fed monies is tied to CoVid Deaths.. is that something the Dems snuck into the relief bill? If states get more money with more CoVid deaths that encourages stuff like the above.. and more deaths will make a bigger criticism for the administration.

The initial relief bill back in April did NOT do this.. and there were complaints about states with few deaths getting big dollars per death. I am not sure if that has changed.
I read something a month or so ago that hospitals get reimbursed for COVID deaths and more so if the patient is on a ventilator

Edit: found this story
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/
 
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Why do people keep posting political crap in here? I get a slightly political mention within a larger post, but nobody wants to see a 9 point political post in here.

Don’t respond to this.
Well you are getting a response. Ronnie B said some posts are interjecting politics.. sneaking them in. He got questioned about that. I told him he was correct and explained how I saw politics as flowing through this whole topic of CoVid.

[EDIT: I decided to self-mod the post to which you objected]
 
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Well you are getting a response. Ronnie B said some posts are interjecting politics.. sneaking them in. He got questioned about that. I told him he was correct and explained how I saw politics as flowing through this whole topic of CoVid.

The non-political posts are great.. about what's going on with vaccines.. but the frequency with which such posts sneak in political comments shows you that it is all tied together. I merely took a shot at explaining why that happens... why Dr. Fauci.. who has flip-flopped on issues.. on the science.. several times.. is being universally praised. His CDC has made mistakes.. why is he universally praised? Politics is the answer. Fauci is a political football. I tried to explain it.
Yes, politics are intertwined throughout this, since policy determines government planning/response etc., but the mods have asked us to try to keep it close to zero. Personally, I'd rather discuss on a CE board and wouldn't even care about arguing about that stuff here, but the guidance was unequivocal, so I'll leave it at that on your posts on the topic. I will correct one thing though: CDC reports to Azar in HHS, not Fauci on NIAID. Fauci is an infectious disease expert and CDC has historically handled the public health part, so Fauci should really have very little to do with things like masks, distancing and public policy, per se - it's just that there's been a CDC leadership vacuum and the media likes him, as does the public (mostly). And of course, the media loves a good fight...
 
Yes, politics are intertwined throughout this, since policy determines government planning/response etc., but the mods have asked us to try to keep it close to zero. Personally, I'd rather discuss on a CE board and wouldn't even care about arguing about that stuff here, but the guidance was unequivocal, so I'll leave it at that on your posts on the topic. I will correct one thing though: CDC reports to Azar in HHS, not Fauci on NIAID. Fauci is an infectious disease expert and CDC has historically handled the public health part, so Fauci should really have very little to do with things like masks, distancing and public policy, per se - it's just that there's been a CDC leadership vacuum and the media likes him, as does the public (mostly). And of course, the media loves a good fight...
point taken.. I edited my objectionable post accordingly
 
Covered this too and was critical of Cuomo/Murphy for delaying the formal shutdown, but the shutdown was largely in effect on 3/16, when NY/NJ/NY shut down schools, bars, restaurants and entertainment venues, so the difference between them and SF was minor. By far, the biggest factor in shutdowns being weeks later than they could have been was the lack of testing, as you know.

Hard to argue for shutdowns with no data, as no tests were run before 3/3 (and 1 death in the 2 states) and <1000 tests per day until mid-March, when we needed to be running at least 20-30K tests per day - we probably had 50-100K positive cases by mid-March and had no clue, because the Administration failed miserably to do what most of the successful countries did - test early and aggressively (and trac/isolate and wear masks) - if we had known the extent of the outbreak by early March and shut down then (or even just had universal masking), we'd have saved 75-90% of the lives lost in the NE US, as per several studies.

And since I'm sure you'll fall back on your useless go-to argument of size, the DC to Boston megalopolis has 52MM people in 56,200 sq mi for a density of 931/sq mi. South Korea is very similar with 51MM people in 38,700 sq mi for a density of 1317/sq mi. The megalopolis has roughly 18K cases and 1300 deaths per 1MM people, while South Korea has 267 cases and 8 deaths per 1MM, i.e., the megalopolis has 67X the cases and 162X the number of deaths as SK (the US numbers are 11.6K cases and 428 deaths per 1MM for ratios of 43X the cases and 54X the deaths as SK). Are you telling me we couldn't have done for the NE US what SK did for themselves?

South Korea managed to keep an area almost as large and a bit more densely populated than the NE megalopolis largely free from the virus without ever enforcing rigid lockdowns and the US, with more rigid lockdowns has come nowhere close to SK. I'm not going to retype everything SK did vs. the US, but if you want to read it, it's in an earlier post.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...entions-and-more.191275/page-141#post-4587498
LOL-can't help yourself from being that salty old man yelling at people to get off his lawn. Anyway, your comparison of SK to the U.S. is still utterly foolish even as you have moved the goalposts.You can go back and read my previous posts for reference, but in summary the same points apply:
  • The US is 99x larger in land mass and exceedingly more geographically and demographically diverse.
  • The Seoul-Incheon metropolitan region has over 50% of that small country's population-yes it's very dense therefore, but also more contained in terms of a management sphere.
  • So.Korea was part of the WHO's initial regional pandemic declaration, and again had been through "the drill" with sars 2002-04. Here in the US, NYers for example were defying social distancing and masks well into April even before the recent mass protests and riots
Funny how the West Coast states handled the pandemic so much better than Cuomo and NYC metro early on, with the same dearth of testing. But you can argue the severe consequences of the five day delay in Cuomo/deBozo's shutdown plan with the NY Times.

And we're still waiting for you to address the block & tackle implementation of how effective the testing kits may have been in your hypothetical scenario of the CDC testing kits being ready in Feb, you know if the career government scientists and health officials hadn't botched it. Try not to have a hissy fit this time though. Thanks.
 
Artificial measurement.

What has Congress done over that same time period?

You know the feds have limited control over what states do or do not do. And you know Trump is for reopening the economy. He wants the nation to be stronger so that this pandemic does not result in more permanent damage to the economic engine of the nation.

What has Congress done to protect the economy or our children's futures?

What have the states done to protect the economy or our children's futures?

See how that works? A lot of blue states seem to want things shut down... which hurts businesses and the economy and childrens' schooling... so asking a question with that as the standard presents a situation where the answer is that they have done NOTHING.

You just asked a similar "question" from a different angle. It was really an accusation in the form of a question. So why not just make the accusation? Why be passive-aggressive about it?
So, if it is up to the states to determine its own path, then why the interference regarding school openings, mask requirements, phased economic reopening? Either you have jurisdiction or not. It's not only when it's convenient and to feed red meat to your base. The mixed messages causes confusion and chaos regarding state measures, resulting in governors flip flopping on interventions whenever the president feels like putting his two cents in.
 
He forgot to insert the tiny lettering on it which says "Made In China" - amazed we haven't seen that meme yet or maybe we have...
Isn't that a SARS CoV-2 virus particle?
Are you fellas this sensitive about those diseases known as the Spanish Flu, Ebola and Lyme Disease too? Sheeesh. But I do like the idea of a "Made in China" inscription. Good one ###s!
 
News coming real soon on Leronlimab. The mild/ moderate trial was unblinded today and Cytodyn will announce results probably before next Wednesday. Also , the independent Data Safety Monitoring Board will be taking a peek at the severe/ critical ongoing trial also next week and if not definitely on their calendar for July. Soon Leronlimab will be treating all these infected people and get the southern states under control. We are closer than ever to getting a safe and highly effective treatment both prophylactically as well as to stop those hospitalized from getting worse.. very very optimistic on this wonderful drug with many indications.
 
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