Jesus. It's so annoying to go between incredibly informative and valuable posts (see ###s) and then the useless drivel of when the pandemic officially started or the left/right arguments. Some of you are ridiculous.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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Well, I hang around gals in their early 20s , they rub off on me I guess.
Whatevs and whateva are still in play. I approve! Lol
I think we all agree that comparing individual countries vs. the US can be problematic, although it can also be instructive, depending on how the data are being analyzed, such as my comparisons of the Asian countries with the US, showing the US has 50-100X the death rate, per capita, as these countries. Any differences in densities, economies, whatever, cannot explain this huge difference - the only thing that can is the utter failure of the US and most of Europe and much of Central/South America to control their pandemics like they did in much of Asia (and Australia, New Zealand and selected other countries). And then the US doubled down on that failure by failing to control the 2nd wave, while all of Europe appears to have done so.
But let's look at the US vs. the EU (+ the UK) for now, since both consist of a few dozen "states" that are fairly independently run and have reasonably similar democratically run, largely capitalist economies with similar transportation systems, and a bunch of large, densely populated major cities. As of 7/20, the EU, including the UK, has 515MM people, 1.62MM positive cases, and 180.5K deaths, while the US has 330MM people, 3.96MM cases and 143.7K deaths.
So on a per capita basis, the EU had 3145 cases/1MM and 350 deaths per 1MM, while the US had 12,000 cases/1MM and 436 deaths/1MM. Bottom line is the EU is 3X as densely populated as the US and yet the US has 29% more deaths per capita and that difference is widening rapidly, as the EU and US had about the same deaths per capita at the end of May. So the US is doing markedly, but not hugely worse than the EU, but the gap is widening, and both are doing hugely worse than most of Asia.
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
I added population density and tests per positive case to my spreadsheet (which is just the Worldometers raw data). Not sure how to paste as an actual spreadsheet (it's a snipped picture from Excel) so people could actually use the data. While Japan is a good question, South Korea is even more densely populated and had a big early outbreak, yet they still controlled it. The really amazing cases, to me, were Singapore and Hong Kong, which are 10-50X more densely populated than almost every country on that spreadsheet and as densely populated as NYC and yet they've had essentially trivial levels of cases (even with recent flare-ups).
Both have very strong mask-wearing cultures and Hong Kong did an incredible number of tests per case. In fact the top 8 countries in tests per case (meaning one is getting a ton of very mild/asymptomatic positives and usually tracing them to ensure they don't infect others) all have <6 deaths/1MM. The only outlier is Denmark, which has the 9th most tests/positive case, but does not have a strong mask wearing culture and has ~105 deaths/1MM.
Japan and Singapore are similar in that they have very low deaths/1MM, but don't have unusually high tests/case, but do have extremely strong mask-wearing cultures. The US is #31 of 42 in that spreadsheet in tests/case - we've run a lot of tests, overall, but this stat is indicative of always being behind the case curve. Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria are the only countries with <10 deaths/1MM that don't have fairly high tests/case, although to be frank, I'm not sure we know enough about their data collection to know if their data can be trusted.
How are Hooters waitresses looking nowadays?
Human challenge gaining a tiny bit of traction. No clue why this isn’t a thing already.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...allenge-trials-covid-19-vaccines-gain-support
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...allenge-trials-covid-19-vaccines-gain-support
Have said this a bunch over the last month or so, as the spikes in the south and west keep growing: death rates will likely be significantly lower, due to much younger people being infected, so far and improved treatments/medical procedures - with the proviso that the elderly can be better protected than they were in the NE US and most other places in the US (and Europe) during the first wave.
Well, this article should make everyone worry a bit about where the pandemic is heading, as the percentage of elderly being infected in FL is rising fairly quickly, even in the Villages, a very upscale retirement world in Central Florida, home to tens of thousands of retirees. Need to watch this closely in FL, the 2nd oldest state, as well as other states being hit hard now, which have been showing a much younger profile of infected cases. FL has done quite well, so far, protecting its elderly with excellent testing programs in place, especially in nursing homes - hopefully, they can sustain that performance.
Now there are signs that the age of Floridians getting the virus is shifting. Jackson Health System, Miami-Dade County’s public hospital, said last week that 18 percent of its coronavirus patients were 80 or older. Two weeks before, that figure was 9 percent.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/us/coronavirus-florida-elderly.html?referringSource=articleShare
Well, this article should make everyone worry a bit about where the pandemic is heading, as the percentage of elderly being infected in FL is rising fairly quickly, even in the Villages, a very upscale retirement world in Central Florida, home to tens of thousands of retirees. Need to watch this closely in FL, the 2nd oldest state, as well as other states being hit hard now, which have been showing a much younger profile of infected cases. FL has done quite well, so far, protecting its elderly with excellent testing programs in place, especially in nursing homes - hopefully, they can sustain that performance.
Now there are signs that the age of Floridians getting the virus is shifting. Jackson Health System, Miami-Dade County’s public hospital, said last week that 18 percent of its coronavirus patients were 80 or older. Two weeks before, that figure was 9 percent.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/us/coronavirus-florida-elderly.html?referringSource=articleShare
https://www.local10.com/news/local/...d-wing-causing-worry-among-current-residents/
Florida nursing home allowing recovering Covid patients into facility with no cases. Governor gave the okay,
Florida nursing home allowing recovering Covid patients into facility with no cases. Governor gave the okay,
First, you owe @WhiteBus an apology.
Next, this is the classic troll post: "I can't defend my position logically so YOU will have to look it up." Sure.
Remind me who you are devoted to who incorrectly said that US C19 mortality rate were low, Einstein.
I've said before I don't think any state should be as bad as it was up here because we know so much more and it's not new anymore, awareness is there, treatments are better etc...
That being said I also have said you can say wall off the vulnerable etc...but IMO that's only doable to a point you can control the infection. IMO there's a threshold of infection rates where you can manage that but after a point if you've crossed that threshold eventually the vulnerable will be affected in a 6 degrees of separation sort of way. What the threshold is I don't know but if enough people are infected even if it's among the younger crowd, the virus will snake it's way to the vulnerable. It's not like all the elderly are fully taking care of themselves and have no interaction with people younger than them in whatever settings so the exposure risk is always there. Same for younger aged vulnerable populations.
I have no dog in this fight but I admit i chuckled at the irony of being smart and spelling "liar" incorrectly in the same sentence.
I found this interesting. Belgium had a different approach then many EU countries and many US states for that matter. Belgium counted probable cases. Ultimately excess deaths at the end of this will show an interesting picture.
https://www.dw.com/en/belgiums-coronavirus-overcounting-controversy/a-53660975
Not only probable but everyone that died in assisted living and nursing homes no matter what the real cause.
Any updates on death rate over last 7 weeks? Cases started rising 7 weeks ago but death rates still way down. Reasons?
Some good points in this article.....https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...n-dangerous-for-children-to-return-to-school/
LOL. Sorry it's logical to look at the factors impacting smaller-sized countries that are not as geographically and demographically diverse as the U.S. with the volume of international travel especially in the Dec-Jan time period and realize we're not comparing apples-to-apples with any country in Europe or the world for that matter. Yes the U.S. is that unique of a country. I have made this point clear in many posts in these Covid threads and wasn't about to keep retyping. So you can also feel free to use the search functions here and look them up. It's not that difficult Einstein.
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Some very good points here. It's easy to see the high mortality rates within the sub acute and nursing home facilities and label it a failure. But it's also important to remember at the apex in the tri-state area, hospitals were maxed out with absolutely no room at the inn. Decisions needed to be made on who got what treatments and where those treatments would occur. These decisions were (probably) predictably going to occur here based on what we observed in Italy and Spain. As reported in these countries, the elderly and those with several comorbidities were given very little care or even denied care in favor of treating those with higher probabilities of survival. Certainly a tough choice, but from a medical standpoint the correct one in order to maximize resources. The unfortunate piece being our subacute and nursing home facilities here were not supplied and staffed adequately to combat the onslaught...much like the hospitals by the way. I realize this does not provide any comfort to those affected by the decision to have Covid positive people readmitted back to the nursing home, but this may have been one of the only ways to ensure some type of care for all versus no care whatsoever for certain subsets.
See above. It sounds like Florida is at the stage as I described. I'm sure there is a money/reimbursement incentive for the facilities outside the hospital to receive recovering Covid patients, but all resources need to be considered when hospital capacity is maxed out. If the patients are recovering/recovered and in stable condition, an appropriately set up area/wing is a viable option in these subacute and tertiary facilities.
Some more on this, including an excerpt from the article below. Despite Florida's fairly strong procedures/policies in place around nursing homes, cases are increasing, likely due to delays in testing of staff, which means staff who don't know they're infected are infecting the elderly. Not good.
As state officials focused their attention for the last three weeks on the rising COVID-19 case numbers among younger Floridians, the number of infected residents and staff at elder care facilities has more than doubled, and on Monday, the trade association for nonprofit nursing homes unleashed a cry for help.
“For months we have been sending out a warning to the federal government that this crisis is not over,’’ said Katie Smith Sloan, president and CEO of LeadingAge which represents 5,000 nonprofit nursing homes and assisted living facilities, on a teleconference with reporters Monday. “We need real solutions now, not a patchwork of policies that allow the pandemic to grow more deadly and dangerous.”
She called the rising case numbers a “category five-level emergency bearing down on millions of older adults in Florida and across the United States,’’ and urged Congress to reject the President's call to block funding for states that invest in more testing and contact tracing.
https://www.miamiherald.com/article244352327.html
There are pages of posts in this thread talking about this.
To be honest, I have been immersed in the NJ aspect of it due to my position and ties around the state. Those are very valid points in regards to NY.
Another possible new symptom seen in some COVID patients...mouth lesions. It’s from that same vein where some infected get skin rashes/lesions.
https://www.foxnews.com/science/mouth-lesions-may-be-new-coronavirus-symptom.amp
https://www.foxnews.com/science/mouth-lesions-may-be-new-coronavirus-symptom.amp
As predicted, death rates started rising about 2 weeks ago and are significantly above the low they had reached, but due to the much younger population being infected and improved treatments/medical procedures, deaths are likely to be significantly less than they were in the first wave. I've posted about his multiple times with graphics.
Actually not quite. By the time NY realized that hospitalization/ICU rates were not going to reach modeled peaks (and the big boats wouldn't be needed much), the damage had already been done with the elderly, for the most part. And NY was simply following CDC guidance in sending recovered elderly COVID patients back to their LTC facilities - also, the vast majority of elderly patients in those locations were infected by staff or each other (and not returning patients), which was such a major issue due to the lack of preventative testing for staff, in particular. Yes, sending them somewhere else might have been better, but they thought what they were doing was ok, plus, it turns out NY has one of the best records on LTC deaths on a percentage basis of total deaths in any state.
I replied to a later post, which provided more relevant into. Didn't mean to offend your delicate sensibilities. I'm not going to rehash all the government commentary, as the mods don't want that, but I have been critical of Fauci's stance on masks, although that's in the CDC's purview, as a public health issue, not his, really, as head of NIAID. I also said he should've been more forceful on the pandemic, but he also always qualified his statements, so it's not like he was "downplaying" it anywhere near as much as the guy in charge. I also think Fauci has been generally excellent through all this, despite my criticisms, doing the best he can to provide good scientific insights and info to the public, especially on the numerous occasions when the info coming from other parts of the government has not been scientifically sound.
Rrrrriiight, I'm very delicate because I called you out for lying about what I have posted. You really need to get out of your bubble fella.
So without rehashing the complete timeline of mistakes your apparent hero Fauci has made, some of the h̶i̶g̶h̶ lowlights include: 1) in mid Feb telling the public i) the flu was a bigger risk to us than chicomvirus, ii) masks are "absolutely not" necessary, and (iii) "there is no circulating sustained transmission of coronavirus in the United States" and the cases present were contained; followed by 2) telling the public it was OK to go on a cruise ship if you're healthy and young in early March; and 3) in mid April (!!!) endorsing Tinder hookups if you're willing to take the risk. LOL--excellent advice from the top infectious disease scientist in the U.S. No wonder the young crazies were partying into April in NYC and have let loose as states tried to re-open in recent months.
Now what I want to know is what Fauci and the rest of the career government health officials were telling Trump as he was apparently trying to not panic an entire nation in that same time period and making public statements that in retrospect are questionable. We can't just hide from the chicomvirus and keep our way of life from totally collapsing. Trump was pushing a balanced approach publicly and unless we learn there was at least a strong consensus among the top US health officials advising him to have over 300million people run and hide, you can't pin this messaging entirely on him.
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LOL. For Feds "what they thought they were doing was OK..."= poor crisis management by Feds, for Cuomo it's not his fault. You just can't help yourself with your partisanship. Btw is that "best record on LTC % deaths" before or after NY reclassified LTC infected patients either on their way to a hospital and/or died in the hospital as part of the official hospital death count?
Stick to updates on vaccines and antiviral news in this thread, that is useful. Your political opinions in this thread are a joke.
New York Admits to Intentionally Undercounting Nursing Home Deaths After Changing Reporting Rules, Report Says
https://fee.org/articles/new-york-a...s-after-changing-reporting-rules-report-says/
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...says the guy who cites an article from an organization funded by the Koch brothers...
This shit is getting ridiculous, more states added to the list of quarantine states by Murphy, one that got added was Washington and one that got dropped was Minnesota:
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...-31-states-as-outbreak-worsens-across-us.html
Yet when I look at the new cases daily listed for both states, they're BOTH under a 1,000 (basically from a quick look both are in the 500-900 range) and Washington state had 2M more residents than Minnesota.
How does this make any sense? And this does **** my vacation plans up as I'm traveling into the Northwest the final two weeks August, so my options to this Magic 8 ball stunt by Murphy is:
A) cancel my trip and eat the airline ticket
or
B) take the trip and quarantine for two weeks with probably no pay since I doubt they'll want to pay me to sit home for two weeks
or
C) pray to the Old Mighty God that Emperor Murphy takes Washington back off the list
PS - **** yourself 2020
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...-31-states-as-outbreak-worsens-across-us.html
Yet when I look at the new cases daily listed for both states, they're BOTH under a 1,000 (basically from a quick look both are in the 500-900 range) and Washington state had 2M more residents than Minnesota.
How does this make any sense? And this does **** my vacation plans up as I'm traveling into the Northwest the final two weeks August, so my options to this Magic 8 ball stunt by Murphy is:
A) cancel my trip and eat the airline ticket
or
B) take the trip and quarantine for two weeks with probably no pay since I doubt they'll want to pay me to sit home for two weeks
or
C) pray to the Old Mighty God that Emperor Murphy takes Washington back off the list
PS - **** yourself 2020
#s and others here giving a pass on Fauci blunders is stunning. I forgot about Fauci's Tinder comments
I mean, that really sucks...I had travel plans cancelled this summer by Covid as well. I had overseas travel to Europe planned, so I didn't have a choice in the matter - the EU decided for me.
As for the states, it's not arbitrary, at least there's a metric that's being used for it. Hopefully the states you are planning on going to get their situation back under control over the next couple of weeks...
"The quarantine applies to any state with a positive test rate higher than 10 per 100,000 residents or a state with a 10% or higher positivity rate over a 7-day rolling average."
Can you refute this or are you just trolling? Anyway, you won't quibble with an AP report on the disastrous management failure of NY's LTC system, amirite?
NY’s Cuomo criticized over highest nursing home death toll
One key criticism is that New York took weeks after the first known care home outbreaks to begin publicly reporting the number of deaths in individual homes — and still doesn’t report the number of cases. By the time New York began disclosing the deaths in the middle of last month, the state had several major outbreaks with at least 40 deaths each, most of which were a surprise to the surrounding communities and even some family members.
“They should have announced to the public: ‘We have a problem in nursing homes. We’re going to help them, but you need to know where it is,’” said former New York Lt. Gov. Betsy McCaughey, a Republican who now heads the nonprofit Committee to Reduce Infection Deaths. “Instead, they took the opposite tack: They hid it.”
Further, there has been a lack of testing in several recent New York outbreaks, including one that killed 98 residents, many of whom died with COVID-19 symptoms without ever being tested.
Unlike West Virginia, New York has not mandated testing in its more than 1,150 nursing homes and long-term care facilities. Nor has Cuomo followed the lead of such states as Maryland, Florida, Tennessee and Wisconsin in dispatching National Guard teams to homes to conduct testing, triage and some care.
New York has faced particular scrutiny for a March 25 state health department directive requiring nursing homes to take recovering coronavirus patients.
“A number of nursing homes have felt constrained by the order and admitted hospital discharged patients without knowing what their COVID status was,” said Chris Laxton, executive director of the Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. “This order made an already difficult situation almost impossible.”
https://apnews.com/4042f05613ee4259b7a44d4466a0a02a
The good thing is Washington state is not madly spiking, from what it looks like it barely made it so hopefully they can reverse matters....but the luck I've been having I'm not counting on it.
I'm also leaning towards option B - quarantine and lose two weeks pay, if I cancel it seriously might put me in a state of depression, every time 2020 (the twat year it has become) has taken a bad turn, I always had in the back of my mind my trip to keep my spirits up, if I miss this trip and be stuck in this state, I could lose my marbles.
And my trip is getting lost in the wilderness of Mount Rainer where I get off the grid and my only concerns are bears and mountain lions.
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that's a better source - would prefer if everyone in this thread would keep their sources and references to academic journals, non-biased news sources like AP and Reuters.. no dispute on the LTC issues in NY/NJ.
It’s unfortunate that CMS and the CDC only issued guidance on April the 2nd for nursing facilities. By that time roughly 2/3rds of the LTC deaths were propagated in NJ and NY.
https://www.healthcarelawinsights.c...-to-nursing-facilities-at-presidents-request/
It would be nice if we could have a reliable 2 day turnaround on testing. That was what was occurring at the Arts center and other drive-in sites towards the end. If you travel, you would automatically qualify for a test (at a fee). I traveled at the end of June, and Iowa became a quarantine state while we on vacation there visiting family who actually lived over the border in Illinois. We could have easily avoided Iowa, all we did was go to Walmart there when it wasn't on the quarantine list. I feel your pain on the randomness of it all.
We got tested upon return and got results 10 days later which was totally useless but gave us some peace of mind that we did not infect family at least (100% asymptomatic and would have driven home had we come down with symptoms after landing).
Option D is also just go and ignore the quarantine order upon return (IF NON-SYMPTOMATIC!) since there is no real way for it to be actually enforced. I'll also clarify that I don't know your line of work obviously.
My managers already know about my trip and besides company policy is they must know if you're visiting a state on the list, I'd be risking my job going Option D.
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